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The Herald Scotland
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Why Labour are in turmoil one year after their election win
This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter. It's safe to say this is not the first anniversary the Labour government at Westminster would have hoped for. Small will be the celebrations in Downing Street marking 12 months since the party was returned to office at the general election. Little wonder, given that recent days have seen the most unholy self-inflicted mess over proposed welfare reforms, with backbenchers shredding the government's plans. There followed the sight of the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, openly weeping at Prime Minister's Questions; whatever the cause, this was a spectacle without precedent. Remarkably, with a 165-seat working majority, the government now finds itself looking for ways to recover its authority. For Labour, things need to be turned around in very short order. Coming to power with a headline promise of 'change', Keir Starmer and his team now need to go back to the drawing board and clearly set out how they will demonstrably improve the lives of so many who envisaged a more hopeful Britain after fourteen years of the Tories. Having spent considerable time writing about every general election since 1900, I've seen plenty of evidence that understanding the past can help guide those now running the show. For instance, it was precisely a refusal by MPs to implement huge savings injuring those most in need which doomed Ramsay MacDonald's second Labour administration way back in 1931. Then it was the unemployed, today it is the sick and disabled. READ MORE FROM UNSPUN: Two decades later, in 1951, Nye Bevan and Harold Wilson resigned from the government over the imposition of charges on false teeth and spectacles for NHS patients. The Daily Express said of the plans, by the then Chancellor Hugh Gaitskell, 'that is what the Tories would have done. Now the job is done for them.' In essence Labour does not exist to hammer those who most need help, quite the opposite. Think here of Neil Kinnock's words on the eve of the 1983 general election. Fearing the re-election of a Conservative government led by Margaret Thatcher he said: 'I warn you that you will have pain – when healing and relief depend upon payment....I warn you that you will have poverty – when pensions slip and benefits are whittled away.' Backbench rebels in Parliament today know all too well that Labour must always be an anti-poverty party or it is nothing. Protecting the most vulnerable in society while building a strong economy in which we can all lead good lives is the tune Starmer and co must play, just as his namesake Keir Hardie understood in 1900. Yes these have been difficult days of late, and yes government is relentlessly tough work. All is not lost, but the Prime Minister would be well served to tack leftwards, taking a more traditionally Labour direction. My feeling is the country would be behind them should Ministers pursue options such as a wealth tax on the richest, or levies on the burgeoning gambling sector; such measures, and others like them, would raise billions of pounds each year. Politically, there is not a moment to lose, a year in government has passed in the blink of an eye and the local and devolved elections of next spring – including to Holyrood – are already in sight; these will go a long way to defining Labour's chances of winning the next general election. Douglas Beattie is the author of 'Victory at the Ballot Box: The History of How Labour Built Britain' (Published 3rd July 2025)by Elliott and Thompson
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Fewer births, bigger bills: Can the government fix Scotland's demographic crisis?
This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter. About a decade ago, the Danish arm of Thomas Cook launched TV ads urging Danes to boost their flagging economy by procreating. The 'Do it for Denmark' campaign offered an "ovulation discount" for women traveling during their most fertile period. Those submitting a positive pregnancy test and journal post-holiday could win a three-year supply of nappies and a family trip abroad. Reports claim 1,200 more babies were born the following year because of the advertising push. In 2018, at an SNP conference fringe event, Aberdeen North MP Kirsty Blackman suggested Scotland could adopt a similar approach. 'There's good alliteration potential there,' she joked. The Scottish Government is worried. Scotland faces an ageing population and a declining birth rate, the lowest since records began in 1855. This issue isn't unique. A recent New Yorker article, "The End of Children," highlights a global drop in birth rates, possibly below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 2023. South Korea holds the world's lowest total fertility rate (TFR) at 0.7, meaning each generation could shrink to a third of the previous one. Nurseries there are being turned into nursing homes, and "no-kids zones" are popping up in public spaces. READ MORE FROM UNSPUN: Holyrood's quiet plodders deserve credit for mopping up Scotland's legislative flood Welfare cuts spark Labour rows which will delight the SNP John Swinney will hit the Big Apple next week but is it worth it? National Records of Scotland data shows 48,397 births here in 2023 — the lowest ever recorded — yielding a TFR of 1.3. Should we worry? Depends how old you are. Obviously more elderly people means more strains on social care and the NHS. A shrinking working-age group means fewer people paying in to fund those services. And as much as we might think of pensions as a savings post we all chip into, it's not. It's a pay-as-you-go system. My national insurance pays the state pensions of those receiving them today. With a TFR of 1.3, each generation is 65% the size of the last. In 30 years — when, to declare an interest, I'll be a pensioner — Scotland's population could have halved. Who's going to pay for my pension? To use Ms Blackman's alliteration, should the government be urging those who are able to 's*** for Scotland' and expand the tax base? First Minister John Swinney, addressing reporters after an economic speech earlier this year, dismissed the idea. 'People choose their family sizes, and that's their call,' he said. He noted a similar warning 20 years ago under Jack McConnell, when Scotland's population was predicted to dip below 5 million. EU expansion prevented that. But with Brexit and UK governments, now and in the future, unlikely to encourage immigration, Scotland's overseas options are off the table for now." Global trends suggest no easy fix. Incentives, like those in the Nordic countries, have faltered. Scotland's TFR is actually higher than Finland's, which is around 1.26. Sweden's rate in 2022 was 1.52. Scotland's declining birth rate poses tough questions. A smaller population may struggle to keep past promises.
