Latest news with #UpperHouseElections
Japan Times
11-07-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
What Japanese politics could look like after Upper House election
While Upper House elections are often regarded as a referendum on the incumbent administration, the July 20 vote might assume a greater significance this time. As the election campaigns continue, growing uncertainty over the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito government is giving rise to a variety of scenarios for what's set to be a turbulent post-election season. In a chamber with 248 seats, the majority is set at 125, with 75 of the coalition's seats not up for reelection this time. Early surveys have indicated there is a chance the coalition might fall short of the 50 seats it needs to retain its majority. Such a fiasco would deal a blow to an administration already in a minority position in the Lower House and increase expectations of opposition parties stepping up. However, no formal parliamentary nomination of the prime minister is contemplated after any Upper House election, which opens up the possibility of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba staying in power even after a setback. Under current rules, a parliamentary vote on the head of the government is required only following a Lower House vote or an en masse resignation of the Cabinet. Here are some of the possible post-election landscapes awaiting the country: Ruling coalition retains Upper House majority The goal set by the LDP-Komeito coalition is seen as low, as Ishiba and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito are often reminded of in election debates. The loss of 16 seats — roughly a fourth of the coalition's seats up for contest this time — would still give it a majority. The goal works more as insurance for Ishiba to help him save face and cling to the leadership even if the coalition has a poor showing. Retaining a majority in the Upper House would cement the status quo, allowing the government to use it to block opposition-led initiatives in the Lower House and hasten debates in the chamber. In the final stages of the last parliamentary session, for instance, a bill to abolish a temporary tax on gasoline cleared the Lower House but was never voted on in the Upper House . A weak performance, however, could trigger internal maneuvers within the LDP to try to oust Ishiba and elect a new party leader, who might not have the certainty of securing a majority vote in the Lower House for the position of prime minister. On the contrary, a resounding win could strengthen Ishiba's position and fuel momentum for a snap election in the fall for the coalition to attempt to restore its majority in the Lower House. Ruling coalition loses majority, but Ishiba stays PM Falling below the majority threshold in the Upper House would severely hurt Ishiba's credibility as leader of the LDP and the nation — especially after last year's debacle in the general election. Though he would seem like a lame duck, unless he voluntarily steps down, there is no formal procedure to force the prime minister out, even if there is strong pressure from his own party. Controlling just a minority of seats in both chambers would force the government — which already has to make concessions to the opposition for every bill in the Lower House — to cede legislative powers to an emboldened opposition. With Ishiba's coalition already running a minority government in the Lower House, losing its grip on the Upper House will further complicate the decision-making process. | Bloomberg The option of opening up the coalition to other parties — such as Nippon Ishin no Kai, the Democratic Party for the People or, potentially, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — has its own downsides and would lay bare the fragility of the government. Large coalitions in Japan don't have a fortunate history, as the examples of an eight-party anti-LDP coalition in 1993 and a tripartite pact between the LDP, Komeito and the Liberal Party in the late 1990s have shown. The idea of a prime minister staying in power even after a defeat in the Upper House is not unprecedented. In 2010, then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan clung to his position even after his Democratic Party of Japan lost control of the Upper House. However, unlike the LDP and Komeito currently, the DPJ-led coalition at the time enjoyed a supermajority in the Lower House. LDP-Komeito loses majority and Ishiba steps down Ishiba's potential resignation in the aftermath of an electoral botch would lead to an initial period of political turbulence. The LDP would be expected to call for a presidential election and elect a new leader, who would then move to gain the support of parliament. Should the opposition fail to form a united front in a parliamentary vote, as happened last November , another minority government could be formed. The LDP-Komeito coalition could agree to hand the prime minister seat to another party in exchange for an expansion of the government alliance. A newly elected prime minister from another party could then move to dissolve the Lower House soon after the Upper House election in a bid to consolidate their power base. Chances remain, however remote, the opposition could also join hands in the parliamentary vote and give birth to an opposition-led government. Given the current fragmentation of parliament, that would also likely be a coalition government. With just a week left before election day, rhetoric on the campaign trail is expected to heat up — all while the parties mull over their post-election strategies. 'At the moment, we are doing our best to win this election,' Ishiba told a BS Fuji TV news program Thursday. '(After the election) many different political scenarios might be explored in order to rapidly address the many issues the country's facing.'
Japan Times
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
Japan's Do It Yourself Party: Who we are and where we are headed
Ahead of the Upper House elections on July 20, Sanseito, the party I lead, has adopted the slogan 'Japanese First' and is fielding candidates in all electoral districts. Together with proportional representation, we aim to win six seats. Our slogan is not xenophobic by any means, and instead focuses on the needs of the Japanese citizen first, which the ruling party, pursuing a globalist agenda, has increasingly forgotten. While Sanseito is gaining voters and news coverage nationwide, some may still have questions about who we are, what we stand for and how we got started. The Sanseito — or 'do it yourself' — party was formed in April 2020 by a group of citizens under the slogan: 'If there is no party you want to vote for, let's create one from scratch.' In a true grassroots movement, the party was launched by ordinary citizens, most of whom had no political experience at the national or local level. The results were impressive. Without relying on major supporters, such as large corporations or religious groups, Sanseito secured more than 1.7 million votes in our first national election in 2022, just two years after becoming an organized party. I was elected to the Upper House at this time and have served as a member of the House of Councilors as well as the president of the party beginning in 2023. I was re-elected as party president in 2025. Following the election of three other members to the Lower House in 2024, our party currently has four members in the national legislature and operates 287 regional branches across Japan. More than 140 of our members have been elected in local elections, serving in local assemblies throughout the country. Our core philosophy is 'to protect Japan's national interests and bring about harmony in the world.' Our platform explicitly states the goal of achieving a harmonious society centered around the emperor and valuing traditional culture. Our party focuses on three key policy areas: 'education and human development,' 'food and health,' and 'national security.' As a father of three small children (and planning for more) all living in the countryside, these issues and commonsense approaches — explained below — are near and dear to my heart. Education and human development Promote education that fosters not only academic ability but also a love for family and community and pride in one's country, encouraging students to learn independently. Provide monthly subsidies of ¥100,000 to families with children under the age of 15 as part of child-rearing support. Food and health Support agriculture that does not rely on pesticides and chemicals and prioritize preventive medicine that contributes to the health of the people and the reduction of medical expenses. Improve the treatment of workers in primary industries (agriculture, forestry and fisheries) and aim to achieve 100% food self-sufficiency. Review the excessive influence of the World Health Organization (WHO) and pharmaceutical companies on pandemic policies and reconsider vaccination policies. National security Reduce the burden on households by gradually abolishing the consumption tax (equivalent to Japan's value-added tax) and lowering social insurance premiums. We will impose restrictions on foreign capital investment in real estate and infrastructure to protect national sovereignty and security. We will tighten regulations on voting rights and eligibility for election for immigrants and foreign residents. We will call for a review of radical policies related to gender and gender issues (As well as DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) promotion policies). Regarding climate-change measures, the party advocates moving away from decarbonization policies that ignore economic rationality. With these policies, Sanseito's impact is increasingly being felt in local elections, achieving 19 wins out of 21 elections (a win rate of over 90%) since the start of 2025. In recent elections in several smaller cities, the party has won the most votes and secured the top spot, rapidly expanding its support base in local communities. Moreover, in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, our party's candidates won three of the four seats we vied for, with the fourth candidate losing by a thin margin. Public opinion polls, which have gotten the attention of foreign observers and commentators, also show an upward trend in support rates. In a survey conducted by major Japanese media in June 2025, the party's support rate reached 3.9%, nearly tripling from the previous year's 1.3% and rising to fourth place among all parties. Sanseito already has over 80,000 members and supporters and our reach on social media platforms such as YouTube is also notable. The official Sanseito channel has over 270,000 subscribers, making it one of the largest among Japan's major parties. The party's unique election strategy, which combines grassroots networks with online outreach capabilities, is drawing significant attention. More and more voters are aware of our policies, energy and diversity among age groups, backgrounds and experiences — including supporters in international marriages and with much international travel and work under their belts — and want us to help promote commonsense and immediate change for the country. Japan has been very much open to foreign nationals and there has been a huge rise in the number of overseas workers in recent years. As with Europe and the United States, however, excessive immigration has become a problem causing issues in law and order. Because of this, we are simply calling for stricter rules and limits on the number of immigrants. This policy is supported by the Japanese public. With regard to other excesses of the globalist agenda of the ruling party, examples include the privatization of public enterprises such as the postal reform in 2006 under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Now, there's chatter of dismantling the agricultural cooperative, with Koizumi's son Shinjiro Koizumi at the helm of the farm ministry. Privatization will result in profits flowing overseas. Japan's 'green transformation,' or GX, policies have also become excessive, with renewable energy surcharges alone costing taxpayers ¥3 trillion a year. And the forced promotion of electric vehicles has inflicted significant damage on the Japanese automotive industry, causing some associated interests to flow overseas. Our efforts over the past five years have shown that the Japanese voter is not apathetic, as some tend to believe. If anything, they are highly committed and passionate about their communities and country and are very concerned about the direction Japan is heading. It is normal for any nation's citizens and voters to feel this way. Along with them, Sanseito seeks to change the direction in which the country is headed and bring power back to the people. Sohei Kamiya is the president of Sanseito and a first-term member of the House of Councilors. He previously was the founder of the Ryoma Project and a member of the Suita City Assembly. He runs the Channel Grand Strategy on YouTube.
NHK
23-06-2025
- Politics
- NHK
Tokyo assembly elections a bellwether for Upper House vote
The Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito had disappointing night in Tokyo. NHK World's Shimada Yukiko breaks down what it means for upcoming Upper House races.
