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Mint
04-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
With the US dollar at multi-year lows, could Indian stock market see a surge in FPI inflows?
The Indian stock market has seen a resumption of overseas inflows in recent months, driven by easing global trade tensions, improving domestic fundamentals, and expectations of an earnings recovery in FY26. Though foreign remained net buyers over the last three months, the aggressive selling during the first quarter of 2025 more than offset the recent inflows, keeping their overall stance negative for the year so far, with total outflows standing at ₹ 1.3 lakh crore. Nevertheless, analysts expect that inflows may increase in the near future amid a sharp drop in the US dollar, which crashed 11% in the first half of the current calendar year, marking its steepest half-year decline since 1973 and its weakest six-month performance since 2009. At the current level of 97, the dollar index is trading at the lowest level since February 2022. Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, said a weaker USD, especially when tied to expectations of rate cuts in the US, will generally have a positive impact on Foreign Institutional Investor behavior, as investors will rotate from developed markets into emerging markets to seek higher yields. This can have a positive impact on Indian equities, as it brings more capital inflows into the country, supporting the rupee and lowering bond yields. He noted that a strong rupee and lower import costs due to the weaker dollar can improve margins for big sectors in India such as aviation, chemicals, and consumer goods. Lower prices for USD-denominated commodities such as metals and crude oil will reduce inflationary pressures and boost Indian companies, although some export sectors such as IT and pharmaceuticals may face challenges. Maxwell added that overall returns on Indian assets can also increase, as the cost of hedging positions decreases with a weaker USD, which can boost investor capital flows into bonds and equities. 'When we see a rotation from investors into emerging markets, India is often one of the first choices due to its macroeconomic stability and large consumer market, which is why I think we can see further gains,' he said. Brokerage Elara Securities, citing historical data, also made a case for an 8-10% rise in the Indian benchmark index amid USD weakness. "In each of the 8 years when the DXY fell more than 5%, the Nifty posted positive returns—with a median gain of +34%. To date in 2025, despite a 9% DXY decline and a –0.9 correlation, the Nifty is up a mere 7.5% YTD. If past patterns hold, an additional 8–10% upside appears plausible," it said. With FII shareholding near low since Sept 2017 and a macro backdrop resembling prior recovery cycles — rate cuts, benign inflation, and external stability — the environment remains supportive, it said, expecting it to play out through a selective high beta rally. That said, Maxwell cautioned there are some challenges ahead. If US recession fears persist and this translates into investor fears over a global recession, then this could hurt market sentiment and dampen demand for Indian exports. He also warned that if geopolitical tensions rise, we may see a return of risk-off sentiment, which can prompt investors back to safe havens in the short term, hurting Indian markets. Maxwell advised traders and investors to keep a close eye on the US earnings season for clues on how the US economy is performing. Whilst the Fed is expected to cut rates, he noted, 'we should look for clues from the Fed about any potential concerns over inflationary issues caused by tariffs that could force them to increase rates and therefore strengthen the USD again.' Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The Wire
27-06-2025
- Business
- The Wire
VT Markets Launches USD 1,000,000 Global Trading Showdown Where Strategy, Precision, and Performance Take Center Stage
27 June 2025 – India – VT Markets, a leading multi-asset brokerage, is raising the stakes for traders worldwide with the launch of the VT Trading Arena — a high-intensity, 10-week global competition with up to USD 1,000,000* in cash prizes up for grabs. Running from 23 June to 31 August 2025, the VT Trading Arena is set to be one of the standout events of the year and a centerpiece of VT Markets' 10th anniversary celebration. Open to traders of all levels, the VT Arena offers a world-class competitive stage where participants can test their skills, sharpen their strategies, and compete for global recognition, exclusive rewards, and their share of one of the largest prize pools in the industry. With a total prize pool of USD 1,000,000, the competition is divided into two tiers to cater to all experience levels. The Beginner Tier prize pool stands at USD 300,000, whereas the Advanced Tier is allocated USD 700,000. This tiered structure allows traders to compete within their skill range while still aiming for their respective top prize. In addition to the main prize pool, participants can win extra cash prizes, including a grand prize of USD 10,000 for the top trader every 5 weeks. The second-place finisher will receive USD 7,000, and third place will earn USD 3,000, providing multiple opportunities to win beyond the main prizes. To participate, traders simply need to open a VT Markets account, deposit a minimum of USD 1,000 and meet the competition's minimum trade requirements to qualify. Each eligible deposit earns one spin on the prize wheel, offering even more chances to win attractive prizes such as USD1,000 in cash, trading vouchers, hospitality tickets to exclusive match and race days, and more. The global trading competition is designed not only to offer a thrilling experience, but also to foster a sense of community among traders worldwide. With a decade of innovation behind it, VT Markets is using this milestone moment to transform the trading experience — turning it into a global avenue of ambition, excellence, and opportunity. For full details on how to participate, eligibility requirements, and the full list of prizes, please visit: [ ]. (Disclaimer: The above press release comes to you under an arrangement with NRDPL and PTI takes no editorial responsibility for the same.).


Cision Canada
19-06-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
VT Markets Launches Global Trading Competition with a USD1,000,000 Prize Pool, Focusing on Strategy, Precision, and Performance
SYDNEY, /CNW/ -- VT Markets, a leading multi-asset brokerage, is raising the stakes for traders worldwide with the launch of the VT Trading Arena — a high-intensity, 10-week global competition with up to USD 1,000,000* in cash prizes up for grabs. Running from 23 June to 31 August 2025, the VT Trading Arena is set to be one of the standout events of the year and a centrepiece of VT Markets' 10th anniversary celebration. Open to traders of all levels, the VT Arena offers a world-class competitive stage where participants can test their skills, sharpen their strategies, and compete for global recognition, exclusive rewards, and their share of one of the largest prize pools in the industry. With a total prize pool of USD 1,000,000, the competition is divided into two tiers to cater to all experience levels. The Beginner Tier prize pool stands at USD 300,000, whereas the Advanced Tier is allocated USD 700,000. This tiered structure allows traders to compete within their skill range while still aiming for their respective top prize. In addition to the main prize pool, participants can win extra cash prizes, including a grand prize of USD 10,000 for the top trader every 5 weeks. The second-place finisher will receive USD 7,000, and third place will earn USD 3,000, providing multiple opportunities to win beyond the main prizes. To participate, traders simply need to open a VT Markets account, deposit a minimum of USD 1,000 and meet the competition's minimum trade requirements to qualify. Each eligible deposit earns one spin on the prize wheel, offering even more chances to win attractive prizes such as USD1,000 in cash, trading vouchers, hospitality tickets to exclusive match and race days, and more. The global trading competition is designed not only to offer a thrilling experience, but also to foster a sense of community among traders worldwide. With a decade of innovation behind it, VT Markets is using this milestone moment to transform the trading experience — turning it into a global avenue of ambition, excellence, and opportunity. For full details on how to participate, eligibility requirements, and the full list of prizes, please visit: *Terms and Conditions apply. About VT Markets VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries as of today. It has earned numerous international accolades including Best Online Trading and Fastest Growing Broker. In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets offers comprehensive access to over 1,000 financial instruments and clients benefit from a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile application.


Zawya
01-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
VT Markets Releases Q2 Report On U.S. Dollar Dominance Shift as Central Bank Diverge
HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire – 1 April 2025 - Leading global financial services provider VT Markets today releases its Q2 report, highlighting the season's key market developments and potential implications for the currency markets. The Federal Reserve Remains Cautious Driven by divergent monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), the foreign exchange market experienced fundamental shifts in the first quarter of 2024. The VT Markets Research Desk indicates that throughout Q1, the Federal Reserve adopted a notably cautious approach to monetary policy. While many central banks globally shifted towards more pronounced easing, the Fed opted for a more measured stance, maintaining its benchmark interest rate within the 4.25%-4.5% range. Internal policy debates, however, suggested emerging divisions, as a moderate camp favoring a single rate cut of 25 basis points gained traction, displacing earlier advocacy for more aggressive cuts. Such a nuanced policy environment signals the Fed's heightened concern for economic uncertainties, reflecting a sentiment of caution rather than outright dovishness. The Fed's updated March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) further confirmed a conservative outlook. Economic growth forecasts for the year were revised downward from 2.1% to 1.7%, accompanied by upward adjustments in unemployment expectations to 4.4% and inflation projections reaching 2.7%-2.8%. Additionally, alterations in the Fed's official language were observed—specifically, the omission of the phrase regarding "balanced employment and inflation risks," replaced instead by emphasis on "rising uncertainty." Chairman Jerome Powell later clarified this stance, effectively reinforcing a scenario of limited rate cuts within the year. Another observation relates to the Fed's balance sheet management. Following last year's reduction in the cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion, there was a further reduction to $5 billion which commenced in April. The mortgage-backed securities (MBS) cap remained unchanged at $35 billion. Consequently, the Fed's balance sheet contracted to approximately $6.75 trillion, marking a recent low. Chairman Powell explained that the slowdown in balance sheet reduction primarily stems from lower Treasury cash balances due to ongoing debt ceiling issues. The VT Markets Research Desk interprets this measured pace as indicative of strategic caution rather than abandonment of quantitative tightening, suggesting the Fed's intention to manage market sentiment and liquidity conditions carefully. Looking ahead, VT Markets advises market participants to closely monitor developments surrounding U.S. trade policy, especially potential tariff adjustments under the Trump administration, along with trends in inflation data, as these factors will significantly influence dollar sentiment in Q2. Euro Resilience Amid Aggressive ECB Easing In contrast to the Fed's cautious positioning, the ECB pursued an assertively accommodative monetary stance, reducing its deposit rate from 4.0% to 2.5% across seven rate cuts since mid-2023. Interestingly, despite such aggressive easing, the euro demonstrated unexpected resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar and recording the strongest gains among major global currencies. The VT Markets Research Desk identifies several contributing factors behind the euro's strength: Trade Policy Uncertainty: Persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy under Trump eroded some of the dollar's traditional safe-haven appeal, inadvertently supporting the euro. Equity Market Divergence: Relatively stronger performance in European equity markets compared to weaker U.S. stocks attracted cross-border capital flows, thereby increasing euro demand. Fiscal Stimulus Impact: Germany's €500 billion fiscal stimulus package bolstered investor confidence, suggesting enhanced economic prospects for the Eurozone. Nevertheless, the Research Desk notes that the sustainability of the euro's gains remains contingent on both U.S. economic resilience and successful execution of European fiscal and monetary initiatives. Possible Recovery for the Dollar Entering Q2, the U.S. dollar index faced considerable pressure, declining approximately 3.85% in early 2024 amid trade-related uncertainties and shifting monetary expectations. Technical analysis indicates the dollar index found tentative support around the 102.8 level after rapid declines, suggesting potential stabilisation or a corrective rebound. The VT Markets Research Desk highlights that recent dollar weakness may have partly reflected overreactions to policy uncertainty rather than fundamental deterioration. Consequently, should the Trump administration signal a softer stance on trade tariffs or if U.S. equities experience a sustained recovery, a renewed strengthening of the dollar index could follow. Ongoing shifts in global monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB will remain pivotal in driving FX market volatility throughout 2024. The Research Desk suggests market participants to remain attentive to evolving policy signals, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding U.S.-Europe economic dynamics, as these will be central to currency market direction in the coming #VTMarkets #CFDs #CFDsbrokers #Forextrading #USD #EUR The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. VT Markets