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Axios
03-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Sector winners and losers of the "big, beautiful bill"
Manufacturing and defense companies stand to win from the " big, beautiful bill," while wind and solar fare worse and hospitals could be hit hard. Why it matters: Investors welcome the certainty of the bill, but are also nervous about heavily exposed sectors. The big picture: Companies will get expanded provisions on itemization and expenses, including 100% bonus depreciation, which allows business to deduct expenses immediately rather than over three years. Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says this could benefit manufacturers, although the stimulative effects of the bill could be muted by tariffs on things like steel and aluminum. "The John Deeres and Caterpillars of the world benefit from a 100% bonus depreciation" historically, she says. Defense spending also benefits, as armed services spending is set to increase by $150 billion under the bill. Couple that with the administration's push to grow the defense budget to over $1 trillion annually and it's a boost in spending that "markets do not appreciate…at all," says Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy. Palantir, an AI-focused defense contractor with ties to Donald Trump, is still among the top five best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year. The other side: While a proposed tax on wind and solar projects was taken out of the bill, tax credits are still set to be removed. Tax credits are key to the economics of solar installation investments, and "for many in that sector, this bill would represent their fears confirmed," per a statement from John Gimigliano, principal in charge of federal tax legislative and regulatory services at KPMG U.S. The removal of a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit is set to be a headwind for EV sales, which could be another pain point for Tesla (though its stock recently rallied even after soft delivery numbers.) Hospitals have"just gotten absolutely smoked, so much so that quite frankly there's no way that these cuts go into effect," according to Treyz. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated $1.1 trillion in health care cuts from the bill. This could weigh on hospital REITs that benefited from that government spending. The loss of social safety nets for millions of Americans could be an additional pressure point to the broader economy over time. The bottom line: Winners and losers aside, at least the market has a better handle on what's coming now.
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why $3.8 trillion in unpaid deficits could unsettle bond markets
Congressional talks today could unlock trillions in new deficit spending — without offsets. Henrietta Treyz, managing partner and director of economic policy at Veda Partners, breaks down the potential $3.8 trillion deficit increase and the risk it poses to bond markets (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX). To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Great to have you as always here. So what's kind of chief most on your checklists that needs to come forward at least in the discussions in the Vodor Rama today and ultimately how investors should be thinking about that? The most important thing is the amendment or the motion that they are considering about whether or not to sidestep the parliamentarian and use the current policy baseline that Ben was just talking about. Effectively, what we're doing here is we're authorizing $3.8 trillion dollars in deficit increases without paying for it and moreover, assuming that the cost is zero. And the reason that's important is mostly for the bond markets and anybody looking at our go forward debt and deficits, that effectively paves the road, a beautiful road for steamrolling through any further deficit increases that any party wants from from now on. Um so this is like sort of the end of any sort of leash on deficit increases or spending from Congress. So that's a very big deal. Um other than that, the Medicaid cuts are enormous for the hospitals, um hospitals nationwide are sort of freaking out. You can see that in the market today and also the energy stocks as the IRA tax cuts are being repealed to a much greater extent than I think anybody anticipated, certainly us. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
30-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets, Powell, and Policy
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney June 30th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, joins to talk about his quarterly fixed income outlook and the bond market's warning shot. Investors will also turn to upcoming economic data, including the monthly payrolls report due Thursday, to assess the strength of the economy and the outlook for rates. 2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, discusses the Senate's deliberations over the Big, Beautiful Bill as well as the looming tariff deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is working to pass President Trump's tax and spending bill by July 4, but faces opposition from around eight Republican senators who have concerns about the bill's provisions. 3) Ebrahim Rahbari, Head of Rates Strategy and US Research at Absolute Strategy Research, joins for an extended discussion on US and global interest rates, inflation projections, and Jay Powell's approach ahead of his comments tomorrow in Sintra. Central bank chiefs from the US, euro zone, Japan, South Korea, and the UK will discuss monetary policy at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Portugal, amid global economic uncertainty caused by Donald Trump's presidency. 4) Heather Boushey, Senior Research Fellow at Harvard University and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers and Chief Economist for the Invest in America Cabinet, breaks down the Trump administration's latest economic policies, including the tax bill, tariffs, and approach to the weakening labor market. The tax bill's progress is being closely watched, with markets and renewable energy stocks reacting to concerns about the bill's impact on wind and solar projects, and Trump pushing for speed and threatening to primary senators who oppose the bill. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on Cracker Barrel and a Bloomberg News story on Squid Game.
Bloomberg
24-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Economy and Israel
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 24th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Gary Gensler, former SEC Chair and Professor of the Practice of Global Economics & Management at MIT, discusses his new text with Simon Johnson and others on the economic consequences of a second Trump administration as well as his experience in government as SEC Chair. It comes as Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to testify before Fed Chair Jay Powell gets set to likely have to explain why he and fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates for the time being, as the president calls for rate cuts. 2) Monica DiCenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities at JPMorgan Private Bank, joins to talk about why she's telling clients to expect the economy to remain resilient and is diversifying global investments. The possible ceasefire between Israel and Iran sparked cautious optimism for a lasting resolution to the conflict, leading to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in stock prices. 3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins for a discussion on the Big Beautiful Bill and President Trump's economic and political priorities beyond the Middle East. President Trump's $4.2 trillion tax-cut package is nearing a vote in the Senate, but it lacks the necessary support due to disagreements among Republicans over Medicaid cuts, green energy incentives, and other issues. Senate Republicans plan to begin voting on the bill mid-week, with a goal of final passage by the weekend, but meeting this deadline will require quick negotiations on thorny policy issues. 4) Emily Kilcrease, former Deputy Assistant US Trade Representative in the first Trump admin, joins to talk about what she believes it would take to effectively remake the economic world order.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the tax bill & Russian sanctions bill are in focus right now
Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices are easing as tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate. Veda Partners managing partner and director of economic policy Henrietta Treyz joins Morning Brief to explain what the conflict means for US policy, in particular the tax bill and Russian sanctions package. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Oil prices easing this morning as investors monitor escalating attacks between Iran and Israel. So far, strikes have spared critical infrastructure, and the vital Strait of Hormuz remains open. With more on what this backdrop could mean for US policy, we've got Henrietta Treyz, who's the Veda Partners Managing Director and partner, or partner, managing partner and Director of Economic Policy here. You're very important, and we want to make sure that we got the titles correct here. Henrietta, great to see you once again. Just take us into the significance of the events that have escalated over the weekend and your best anticipations for what we should be watching for next from this point. Thanks for having me, Brad. You know, my job is to translate how global events impact legislation in Capitol Hill and how that impacts investors. So first and foremost, the sanctions bill that senators had been very hopeful they'd be able to move sometime in the next couple of days is very much, I think, not on the table anymore. The White House has always pushed back on it pretty substantially, but the goal is to sort of tie the president's hands and force him to take a tougher tone with Vladimir Putin. That's plainly not going to be something that they prioritize now, given Israel's actions in Iran, and as evidenced by the fact that the first person Trump called was Vladimir Putin to have him negotiate some sort of peace between Israel and Iran, which is going to be the topic of G7 discussions in Canada throughout this week. The second layer impact is that senators are going to deflect away from, say, deploying the National Guard and the Marines into California, and away from the crackdown on mass deportations, and the negative blowback that's had for the labor sector, specifically restaurants and farmworkers, and try to get to the tax bill. So the tax package is on deck for this week. The senators are going to roll out their tax portion tonight at around 6:00 PM, and that's where they'll train the next three days of their focus. They're only in session for three days, so they can't do too much damage. And so, with that in mind, what what is the reality that as we're evaluating all of these moving parts on separate fronts and in separate regions, where do you think the priority for the administration is placing the focus right now? Um, it's really hard to say. I mean, there's so much going on. I think they're going to, they are already deploying, uh, replenishing tankers and other aircraft out to Israel and going across the Atlantic right now, so they're plainly keeping an eye on that, prepared to jump in if necessary. But I think they really need to be worried about the market. Y'all were talking about the tariffs and corporate earnings coming up. Only 10% of corporations have updated their guidance based on the tariffs. So there's going to be a massive recalibration I'm anticipating as these tariffs both stay in effect and rise more than most people are anticipating. That's going to be sector-specific, with new section 232 tariffs coming down the pike, as well as nation-specific, as we head into Liberation Day 2.0, as I'm calling it, or July 9th. Some countries are going to see their tariff rates rise, and that's going to be something that the market has to adjust to because that's not currently priced in. Sign in to access your portfolio
