Latest news with #VictorKuntzevitsky
Reuters
27-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
TSX's gains set to slow as trade war hits Canada's economy
TORONTO, May 27 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index is set to largely consolidate its recent gains through the rest of 2025 and could be at risk of another correction as the domestic economy shows signs of a slowdown due to U.S. tariffs, a Reuters poll found. The S&P/TSX Composite index (.GSPTSE), opens new tab has rebounded nearly 16% from its lowest closing level in April to post a record closing high on Monday at 26,073.13. Since the start of the year, the index has gained 5.4%, outperforming major U.S. indexes such as the S&P 500. It has been helped by a heavy weighting in metal mining shares as safe-haven demand lifted the price of gold to record highs. "We still believe that peak uncertainty is behind us but the Canadian economy is starting to show the impact from tariffs," said Angelo Kourkafas, a senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including steel, aluminum and autos which have been hit by hefty U.S. duties, while Canada's unemployment rate was at 6.9% in April, its highest level since November. The median prediction of 21 equity strategists and portfolio managers in the May 15-27 poll was for the S&P/TSX Composite index to edge 0.7% higher to 26,250 by year-end, slightly less than the 26,500 mark expected in a February poll. "As companies continue to grapple with the implications of tariffs and recalibrate their inventory strategies, alongside the inclination to delay capital expenditures, profit margins will likely face pressure," said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Seven out of 13 analysts who answered a separate question said corporate earnings would be lower in 2025 compared with 2024 while eight out of 13 said a correction was likely or highly likely over the coming three months. A correction, or a drop of 10% or more from the peak, was confirmed in April before the market rebounded. "We are focusing more on dividend payers as it will protect one's portfolio better during a market correction," said Ben Jang, a portfolio manager at Nicola Wealth. "Over time, falling interest rates are expected to drive outflows from money market instruments." The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark interest rate by 2-1/4 percentage points since last June, to 2.75%, to support the economy. Lower borrowing costs and the potential for trade deals could eventually see the market take another leg higher, analysts say. The index was expected to reach 27,750 by the end of next year, a gain of 6.4%. "Once there is more clarity on trade and lower interest rates start filtering through the economy in 2026, we see a reacceleration in earnings," Kourkafas, from Edward Jones, said. (Other stories from the Reuters Q2 global stock markets poll package)
Yahoo
29-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
TSX ends higher as Shopify jumps nearly 10%
By Fergal Smith (Reuters) -Canada's main stock index rose on Tuesday as Shopify led a rally in technology shares, recouping the previous day's sharp declines, and investors turned their attention to an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index ended up 130.30 points, or 0.5%, at 25,419.45, after posting on Monday its first daily decline in two weeks. "Markets are responding to a rebound from yesterday's correction that was spurred by developments in the AI arena," said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Wall Street's main indexes also rose as AI-linked shares rallied after sharp losses on Monday. "All eyes now are on tomorrow, on the Bank of Canada, where they are expected to announce a 25-basis-point cut," Kuntzevitsky said. "This move will aim to mitigate a potential economic downturn from the proposed U.S. tariffs and ease the burden of Canadian households with variable rate mortgages." U.S. President Donald Trump still plans to make good on his promise to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters. The TSX stands to benefit from the expected election this year of a Conservative government that favors business-friendly economic policies and could help reduce trade uncertainty with the United States, some investors say. The Toronto market's technology sector jumped 4.4% after falling 3.4% on Monday. Electronics firm Celestica was up 8.2% after leading Monday's selloff with a decline of 28%. E-commerce firm Shopify added 9.6%. Heavily weighted financials rose 0.3% but the energy group was a drag, falling 1%. The price of oil settled 0.8% higher at $73.77 a barrel after hitting a multi-week low on Monday. The materials group ended up 0.1% as higher gold prices boosted gold mining shares, offsetting declines for copper, steel and forest product producers. Sign in to access your portfolio
