Latest news with #VinayRajani
Mint
14-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
JSW Infra to Lodha - Vinay Rajani of HDFC Sec suggests these stocks to buy in the near-term
Stock market today: Indian stock markets was trading in red on Monday due to concerns over valuations combined with disappointing earnings for the first quarter of the current financial year. At 13:44 IST, Nifty 50 index was trading at 25,045 . 85, decreasing by 103.05 points or 0.41%, while the Sensex was at 82,130.57, falling by 356.54 points or 0.43%. Analysts attribute the cautious opening to a combination of elevated valuations, underwhelming corporate performance, and global uncertainties. On the technical front, according to Vinay Rajani from HDFC Securities, Nifty 50's next crucial support is now seen near 25,000, 50-day Exponential Moving Average. Rajani has recommended two stock to buy for short-term. Here's what he expects from Indian stock market next week, along with his stock recommendations. Market Views - Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities Nifty 50 Last week, the Nifty 50 lost 1.22% and closed below its 20 days SMA placed at 25,265. Nifty 50 has violated the support of its upward-sloping trendline, which connects previous swing highs of 25,116 and 25,222. The next crucial support is now seen near 25,000, 50-day Exponential Moving Average which also coincides with the lower trendline of a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart. A decisive close below 25000 could trigger momentum selling, potentially dragging the Nifty 50 towards a positional support of 24,500. The recent swing high of 25,549 is not expected to act as strong resistance, and caution is advised unless this level is decisively breached. Bearish signals from indicators and oscillators like MACD and RSI on the daily chart further suggest potential weakness. Also Read | Stocks to buy for short term: Jigar Patel of Anand Rathi is bullish on 3 shares Bank Nifty Similarly, Bank Nifty is also trading within a rising wedge pattern on its daily chart, with the lower trendline of the wedge placed at 56,600 in the spot market. A close below this level would signal a fresh breakdown, potentially pushing the index towards supports at 55,900 and 55,150. Broader market indices also show signs of weakness; the NSE500 index has violated multiple trendlines and its 20-day DMA on a closing basis. Both Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 indices have confirmed a 'Doji'; reversal pattern after a prolonged uptrend on their weekly charts, with a subsequent bear candle reinforcing this bearish reversal. On the global front, after a bullish breakout on positional charts, the MSCI Emerging Market index has formed a 'Doji' candlestick, which could lead to a 'throwback'; fall towards its previous breakout point. Conversely, the Dollar Index, after a prolonged downtrend, has formed a 'Doji'; candle followed by a bullish candle on its weekly chart, signaling a potential bullish reversal. Given the negative correlation between the Dollar and Emerging Market equities, this suggests a possible downward movement in emerging markets and an upward trajectory for the Dollar Index from current levels. Nifty 50 Strategy : Short term Trend of Nifty 50 has turned weak. Recent swing high of 25,550 should be surpassed to negate the further downside. Momentum selling may emerge below the crucial support of 25,000 in Nifty 50, which could drag the index further towards positional support of 24,500. Traders should cut longs and go short below 25,000 in Nifty 50 for the downside target of 24,500, keeping stoploss at 25,350. Also Read | Dharmesh Shah recommends THIS stock to buy today- 14 July 2025 Technical Picks: Stocks to buy in the near-term Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities recommends these two stocks in the near term - JSW Infrastructure Ltd, and Lodha Developers Ltd. Buy JSW Infrastructure ( ₹ 319) | Target ₹ 350 | Stop-loss ₹ 304 JSW Infra share price has broken out from symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. Price rise was accompanied by jump in volumes. Stock price has been sustaining above 50 DEMA and 200 DEMA. Weekly RSI has reached above 50, indicating a sustainable up trend. Weekly MACD is now placed above signal and equilibrium line. Buy Lodha ( ₹ 1,396): | Target ₹ 1,621 | Stop-loss ₹ 1,300 Lodha share price has broken out from the descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. Stock is placed above key moving averages, indicating bullish trend on all time frames. Realty sector index has been outperforming for last couple of weeks. Monthly RSI has given bullish crossover, which indicates strength in the stocks. Volumes have risen along with the recent price rise. Stock has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily and weekly chart. Also Read | Stocks to buy under ₹100: Experts recommend six shares to buy today Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
07-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Vinay Rajani of HDFC Sec suggests these 3 ETFs to buy in the near-term
Stock market today: The Indian stock markets was trading sideways during Monday's session as investors remained wary in anticipation of the US tariff deadline. The ambiguity surrounding US President Donald Trump's forthcoming decisions on trade policy has left global investors feeling uneasy, with markets responding to news relating to the July 9 deadline. At 14:49 IST, The Nifty 50 index was trading at 25,426 . 15, down by 34.50 points or 0.14% while the BSE Sensex was trading at 83,322.84, down by 104.46 points or 0. 13%. Vinay Rajani from HDFC Securities points out that a notable resistance zone for the Nifty 50 exists between 25,600 and 25,670; a clear break above this range could revive bullish momentum. Rajani recommends 3 exchange traded funds (ETFs) to buy in the near-term. Check out his views on the overall market. Despite a recent phase of profit booking that led to minor losses, the Nifty 50's primary uptrend remains firmly intact, with the index continuing to hold above all its key moving averages. A significant resistance band for the Nifty 50 is identified between 25,600 and 25,670; a decisive breakthrough above this level could reignite bullish momentum, potentially driving the index towards a new all-time high. On the downside, immediate support levels for the Nifty 50 are observed at 25,317 and 25,222, while a crucial positional support stands at 25,000, below which long trading positions should be re-evaluated. The Bank Nifty has also experienced a profit-booking phase over the past few sessions, finding support within the 56,000-56,200 band, with resistance levels noted between 57,700 and 58,000. Encouragingly, the NSE500 index recently found support at its long-term upward-sloping trend line and bounced back, a positive sign for the broader market. Both the NSE Microcap250 and Small cap indices successfully maintained their uptrends throughout the week. The high percentage of stocks in the NSE500 trading above their 50, 100, and 200-Day Moving Averages further indicates a healthy and robust bull market. The technical setup across developed, Asian, and Emerging Markets is distinctly bullish. Historically, July has been the best-performing month for the Nifty 50 over the last decade, a pattern that also extends to the IT index. Furthermore, the ratio chart of IT versus Nifty 50 suggests strong prospects for a bullish reversal in the IT sector. Favourable external factors, such as lower crude oil prices, are expected to benefit Indian market sentiments, and a Dollar Index trading at a 2.5-year low creates a highly conducive environment for emerging equity markets like India. FMCG sector seems to have bottomed out as many largecap FMCG stocks have turned bullish on the short term charts. FMCG is one of the sectors which has underperformed Nifty 50 in this calendar year. We can expect mean reversion by outperformance from FMCG sector going forward. We recommend going long in ICICI Prudential Nifty FMCG ETF for utilizing our bullish view on FMCG sector. NSE consumption index has been in a bullish trend with higher tops and higher bottoms. Many consumption stocks which belong to Telecom, FMCG and Auto are having majority of the weight in this index. The Index is placed above all key moving averages. We recommend going long in ICICI Prudential Nifty India Consumption ETF for utilizing our bullish view on consumption sector. Historically, July has been the best-performing month for the IT index over the last decade. Furthermore, the ratio chart of IT versus Nifty 50 suggests strong prospects for a bullish reversal in the IT sector. We recommend going long in Nippon India ETF Nifty IT, for utilizing our bullish view on IT sector. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Mint
23-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
JSW Infra to Swiggy - Vinay Rajani of HDFC Sec suggests these 3 stocks to buy in the near-term
Stock market today: The Indian stock markets were lower on Monday, reacting strongly to increasing geopolitical tensions following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend. Both main indices experienced significant selling pressure during the first half of Monday's trading session. At 12:40 IST, Nifty 50 index was trading at 24,950 . 70, decreasing by 161.90 points or 0.64%, while the Sensex was at 81,821.60, down by 572.56 points or 0.69%. Analysts pointed out that geopolitical conflicts often provide favorable buying opportunities in the long run. On the technical front, according to Vinay Rajani from HDFC Securities, the ratio charts comparing MSCI India to the MSCI World index indicate that the Indian stock market is likely to surpass developed markets in the upcoming weeks. Vinay, believes, a sustained move above 25,200 for Nifty 50 would resume the uptrend. Rajani has recommended three stock to buy for short-term. Here's what he expects from Indian stock market next week, along with his stock recommendations. For the week ended June 20, 2025, Nifty 50 closed at the highest point of the rally that began in April 2025, reclaiming the 25,000 level, significantly aided by large-cap stocks such as Reliance, M&M, and Bharti Airtel. Market breadth appears strong positionally, with 64%, 77%, and 51% of NSE500 stocks trading above their 50, 100, and 200 DMAs, respectively. Furthermore, ratio charts of MSCI India versus MSCI World index suggest that the Indian equity market is poised to outperform developed markets in the coming weeks. For traders holding long positions, the recent swing low of 24,733 should serve as a stop-loss, as a break below this could see a Nifty 50 decline towards the 24,400-24,500 support zone. Conversely, a sustained move above 25,200 would resume the uptrend, potentially pulling the index towards the resistance band of 25,640-25,740. Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities recommends these three stocks in the near term - JSW Infrastructure Ltd, Swiggy Ltd, and Macrotech Developers Ltd (Lodha). JSW Infra share price has broken out from symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. Price rise was accompanied by jump in volumes. Stock price has been sustaining above 50 DEMA and 200 DEMA. Weekly RSI has reached above 50, indicating a sustainable up trend. Weekly MACD is now placed above signal and equilibrium line. Swiggy share price has surpassed the crucial resistance of 20 DEMA with healthy volumes. Daily RSI has been sustaining above 50, which shows the strength in the stock. Daily MACD has shown positive crossover on signal as well as on equilibrium line. Stock has started forming higher top and higher bottom formation on the daily chart. Stock price has taken out previous swing high resistance. Lodha share price has broken out from the descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. Stock is placed above key moving averages, indicating bullish trend on all time frames. Realty sector index has been outperforming for last couple of weeks. Monthly RSI has given bullish crossover, which indicates strength in the stocks. Volumes have risen along with the recent price rise. Stock has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
CA Rudramurthy BV suggests a cautious, sector-specific approach; 5 insurance & defence stocks to bet on
CA Rudramurthy BV , MD, Vachana Investments , says CA Rudramurthy BV suggests monitoring Bank Nifty and Nifty closing values. Crude oil and dollar-rupee movements are also important. Financials, especially insurance companies like HDFC Life , SBI Life , LIC , and Max Financial , show promise. Defence sector stocks , specifically Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), are favorable. A cautious, sector-specific approach is advised. We always feel that you have been positive on the markets indeed with your bullish stance. Today the Nifty once again crossed past the 25,000 mark. What does it mean and what should the investor strategy be like? CA Rudramurthy BV: First of all, at index level, Nifty has made repeated attempts to break this 25,050 zone and now we are more or less closer to that. But I want to see whether we can close above 25,050 level and if yes, then I will say the move between 24,450 and 25,050, the consolidation of about 700-800 points is already done and dusted. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Would you like to know more? Undo We have to see whether we can close above 25,050, which is very crucial or again getting back to those support of 24,450, 24,500 cannot be ruled out. For me, even at the current market price, we are still in the range. I want to see a close of about 25,050 on Nifty and similar levels on Bank Nifty. Support is there at around 55,100 and below that, we have Bank Nifty strong support at 53,500 where the range is and on the upside, resistance is kicking in at 56,200. We are more or less there, but we are yet to close above 56,200 on Bank Nifty. So, to make it very clear, Bank Nifty should close above 56,200 and Nifty has to close above 25,050 and then one can say we have decisively broken out or we have to still wait on. Look at Brent crude. Crude prices are trading above $76 per barrel on the spot level decisively and even if you look at dollar-rupee movement, the dollar-rupee is decisively trading above that 86.50. So, for me, Brent is yet to come down. Coming to dollar vs rupee, again the dollar is yet to come down. Trump will now say for two weeks he will do nothing and he will give space for the Iran-Israel war to continue, but tomorrow again Trump might post another tweet and there can be escalations this weekend. So, I am bullish, but I will be very cautious and I will be very sector specific and stock specific. Let us wait and watch and then take a call next week. But till then, be very sector specific and stock specific. Live Events You Might Also Like: How should you place your bets as Nifty makes a U-turn from 25,000? Vinay Rajani answers But speaking of being stock specific, what would be your calls? What are your long positions? CA Rudramurthy BV: For me, definitely financials will continue to do good whether you want to pick up something like insurance companies or NBFCs which are all allied groups of financials, which can do very well. So, for me, insurance as a sector can perform very well. Look at HDFC Life, look at SBI Life, and even LIC in the cash market to buy. For that matter, Max Financial also looks very good. For me insurance looks very strong and this can be the next big theme. And even defence for that matter can do very well, but you have to be very stock specific when it comes to defence. I like two stocks in defence – BEL and HAL – which still offer great value even at current market prices. I will be avoiding Mazagon Dock or Garden Reach and all other counters which are more or less there with high valuation, but BEL and HAL are very good at current market price.
Economic Times
18-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Long-term, India is the best story in the making: Anshul Saigal
Live Events You Might Also Like: How should you place your bets as Nifty makes a U-turn from 25,000? Vinay Rajani answers You Might Also Like: Neeraj Dewan on Israel-Iran conflict and why he prefers to bet on domestic consumption (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Founder,, says despite West Asia's geopolitical tensions , markets remain resilient, focusing on positive earnings trajectories. Financials, particularly private and PSU banks, show promise with positive price action and earnings tailwinds. A shift from unorganized to organized distribution across sectors like metals and pharma presents opportunities, alongside demand in capital goods and defence, suggesting long-term investment there is negative news flow from West Asia and we have to see this in sequence. Since 2022, geopolitical issues have played out across the globe. But other than temporary moves downward in the market, the markets have been quite resilient. Even in times like this, the markets have been quite resilient in the context of how big the situation is in the West Asian there is something cataclysmic, like a nuclear holocaust or something like that, it looks like the markets are taking all of these geopolitical issues in their own stride. The trend and the prevailing emotion are positive in the markets and as a result, we think markets over the long term will follow earnings trajectory which clearly from recent numbers, as also from commentary from management looks like it is going to be positive. I should say we are in a favourable risk-reward situation. In case this geopolitical event abates, the markets are primed for an up after sector is seeing tailwinds. We think that the financial space is quite interestingly poised. We in the last year saw an earnings downgrade from the previous year in this sector and also stocks across the board consolidated. But in recent times, price action in that sector has been quite positive, particularly in the private sector banking space. Also, the price action in the PSU banking space seems to be quite are upticks that we have seen over the last two-three months. Also, earnings look quite interesting in that space as well. Earnings seem to have tailwinds. So, banking and finance looks quite interesting. Another theme that we are seeing is that post the GST implementation, we saw a move from the unorganised to organised on the manufacturing side, but very little of that happened on the distribution see the second leg of that unorganised to organised move happening on the distribution side across sectors. Whether it is metals, pharma or capital goods, we are seeing that on the distribution side there is a move from the unorganised sector to the organised sector and as a result there are huge tailwinds in that space as the numbers are showing. That space has a few listed companies and the price action in those listed companies seems to suggest that this move has legs. We see in the distribution bracket quite a nice tailwind in demand, capital goods and is stock specific but in those sectors, we are seeing opportunity in discretionary spending in that space. There is opportunity across the board and one should not trade looking at the next quarter or two but rather invest for the next 5-10 years. India is the best story in the that is the crux of the situation as to whether most of the negativity is in the price. If you look at news flow and alongside that if you see price action, for some of the names that you mentioned like Tata Motors, the news flow was back-ended while the price action was front ended. So, price action was adverse and then the news flow became adverse as things played out on the clearly tells us that the markets are forward looking and reacting first while considering earnings and then the earnings will follow. Now with price action having been adverse in most players' cases and also news flow suggesting that things are bad, we believe that from here, earnings will determine price action and earnings in most cases seem to have bottomed out. Also, the volume trajectory for PVs in particular, in the current year is stable to the case of commercial vehicles, there is an acceleration and given the action on interest rates by RBI, it does look like there are tailwinds for discretionary spends that we can anticipate in the current year. It looks like autos may be in a bottoming out phase. Most of the negativity seems to be in the price and any positive action on both the macro as also the micro of individual companies should lead to positive price action in stock prices. That is how we see this you remember, a similar sort of situation happened on the frontline index in NSE some time back and the exchange witnessed a negative impact on expected earnings. It is quite likely that we will see the same thing here. Also, BSE in particular has seen an uptick on F&O activity and market share. With this particular change, there is likely an expectation that there will be a hit on market share going forward, which in turn could have an impact on earnings as well. Now given how the stock has behaved in the last two-three years and particularly in the last six months with so much expectation being built in, there is very little room for error and this development clearly has the makings of shaking up the stock and so we will have to wait and see. But clearly this is not the best. It is not the best thing to have happened when the price has behaved the way it you ask traders about what metrics they follow to understand short-term moves, they will tell you that there is something called the MVP indicator, which is momentum, volume, price. If an uptick on all three parameters is anticipated, then the markets will see an up move going in the current phase of our markets, we have seen about a 10% move in Nifty and thereafter, there has been some amount of consolidation on the back of mostly geopolitical tensions and also to some extent, the Q4 derating in numbers that we have seen. However, that derating has been tempered around 2% to 3%.Given this sort of a situation and for the markets to consolidate and not really derail or fall, tells us about the emotion of the market which seems to be on an uptrend. Given that the earnings trajectory may have bottomed out as last year was a weak year and also that geopolitical tensions may be at peak and may have only downside from here both on earnings and also on geopolitical issues, we may have positive triggers going any of those two things or both combined play out positively for the markets, these markets will probably move up. The emotion in the markets is clearly to move up from here not so much down.
