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The Independent
03-06-2025
- Health
- The Independent
Glaciers will keep melting for centuries even if warming stops, study warns
Glaciers will continue melting for centuries even if global temperatures stabilise immediately, according to a new study. About 40 per cent of the world's glacier mass is already set to disappear due to past greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing loss not only contributes to sea-level rise but also threatens freshwater supplies and increases the risk of natural hazards in mountainous regions. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers and published in Science, utilised eight glacier models to project the long-term evolution of over 200,000 glaciers outside of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. It found that even if global warming was limited to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – the target set by the Paris Agreement – only about half of the current glacier mass could be preserved. Under current climate policies, which could lead to a 2.7C rise, up to 75 per cent of glacier mass could be lost. 'Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters," said Dr Harry Zekollari of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, co-lead author of the study. 'The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved." The study was released barely days after a catastrophic glacier collapse in the Swiss Alps destroyed the village of Blatten. Nearly nine million tonnes of rock and ice from the Birch glacier cascaded down into the valley, burying 90 per cent of the village. The 300 residents had been evacuated due to a warning about the glacier's instability, though one person was still missing. Experts attributed the collapse to the destabilisation of permafrost – a layer of permanently frozen ground – that had been weakened by rising temperatures. The destruction of Blatten underscores the growing risk faced by communities in glaciated regions. Beyond the immediate danger of landslides and floods, the long-term retreat of glaciers threatens water security for billions of people who rely on glacial meltwater for drinking, agriculture and hydropower. Additionally, the loss of glaciers impacts ecosystems and cultural heritage sites, many of which are intimately connected to these icy landscapes. 'Glaciers are really symbolic of climate change," said Dr Zekollari. "Their retreat is a visible indicator of the warming planet, and their loss will have profound implications for both nature and human societies." As the planet continues to warm, scientists emphasise the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate further glacier loss. While some degree of melting is now unavoidable, limiting global temperature rise can still preserve a significant portion of the world's glaciers and the vital services they provide. "We have time to alter the climate," Dr Mauri Pelto, a glaciologist at Nichols College who was not involved in the study, said. "We have time to preserve those glaciers."
Japan Today
03-06-2025
- Science
- Japan Today
Climate action could save half of world's vanishing glaciers, says study
A tourist explores the Ritacuba Blanco glacier at the Natural National Park Nevado El Cocuy in Boyaca Department, Colombia, on April 19, 2024 By Issam AHMED More than three-quarters of the world's glaciers are set to vanish if climate change continues unchecked, a major new study warns, fueling sea-level rise and jeopardizing water supplies for billions. Published in Science, the international analysis provides the clearest picture yet of long-term glacier loss, revealing that every fraction of a degree in global temperature rise significantly worsens the outlook. It may sound grim, but co-lead author Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and ETH Zurich, told AFP the findings should be seen as a "message of hope." Under existing climate policies, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- a pathway that would ultimately erase 76 percent of current glacier mass over the coming centuries. But if warming is held to the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target, 54 percent of glacial mass could be preserved, according to the study, which combined outputs from eight glacier models to simulate ice loss across a range of future climate scenarios. "What is really special about this study is we can really show how every tenth of a degree of additional warming matters," co-lead author Lilian Schuster of the University of Innsbruck told AFP. The paper's release comes as Swiss authorities monitor flood risks following the collapse of the massive Birch Glacier, which destroyed an evacuated village. While Swiss glaciers have been heavily impacted by climate change, it remains unclear how much the latest disaster was driven by warming versus natural geological forces. Glaciers are found on every continent except Australia -- from Mount Kilimanjaro to the Austrian Alps and the Karakoram range in Pakistan. While most are clustered in the polar regions, their presence in mountain ranges across the world makes them vital to local ecosystems, agriculture and human communities. Vast bodies of snow, ice, rock, and sediment that gain mass in winter and lose it in summer, glaciers formed in the Earth's deep past when conditions were far colder than today. Their meltwater sustains rivers critical for farming, fisheries, and drinking water. Their loss can have profound ripple effects, from disrupting tourism economies to eroding cultural heritage. In recent years, symbolic glacier funerals have been held in Iceland, Switzerland and Mexico. "The question I always get is, why are you a glaciologist in Belgium?" said Zekollari. "Well -- sea level rise. Glaciers melt everywhere on Earth... and that affects coastal defenses even in places far from mountains." Around 25 percent of current sea-level rise is attributed to glacier melt. Even if all fossil fuel use stopped today, the study finds that 39 percent of glacier mass loss is already locked in -- enough to raise sea levels by at least 113 millimeters. One key finding of the study is that some glaciers are far more vulnerable than others -- and the global average obscures drastic regional losses. Glaciers in the European Alps, the Rockies of the U.S. and Canada, and Iceland are expected to lose nearly all their ice at 2C of warming -- the fallback goal of the Paris accord. In the central and eastern Himalayas, whose rivers support hundreds of millions of people, only 25 percent of glacier ice would remain at 2C. By contrast, the west of the range may retain 60 percent of its ice at the same temperature thanks to its wide range of elevations, which allows some glaciers to persist at colder, higher altitudes, said Shuster. Glacier loss is already affecting communities. In a related commentary in Science, Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer of Rice University describe how the retreat of Oregon's Glisan Glacier has imperiled orchards, fisheries, and the cultural heritage of the Indigenous Quinault people. "Unfortunately we'll lose a lot, but with ambitious targets we can still save many of these glaciers -- which are not only beautiful, but vital for water supply, sea-level regulation, tourism, hydroelectricity, spiritual values, ecology, and more," said Zekollari. © 2025 AFP
Asharq Al-Awsat
30-05-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Climate Action Could Save Half of World's Vanishing Glaciers
More than three-quarters of the world's glaciers are set to vanish if climate change continues unchecked, a major new study warned Thursday, fueling sea-level rise and jeopardizing water supplies for billions. Published in Science, the international analysis provides the clearest picture yet of long-term glacier loss, revealing that every fraction of a degree in global temperature rise significantly worsens the outlook, reported AFP. It may sound grim, but co-lead author Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and ETH Zurich, told AFP the findings should be seen as a "message of hope." Under existing climate policies, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- a pathway that would ultimately erase 76 percent of current glacier mass over the coming centuries. But if warming is held to the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target, 54 percent of glacial mass could be preserved, according to the study, which combined outputs from eight glacier models to simulate ice loss across a range of future climate scenarios. "What is really special about this study is we can really show how every tenth of a degree of additional warming matters," co-lead author Lilian Schuster of the University of Innsbruck told AFP. The paper's release comes as Swiss authorities monitor flood risks following the collapse of the massive Birch Glacier, which destroyed an evacuated village. While Swiss glaciers have been heavily impacted by climate change, it remains unclear how much the latest disaster was driven by warming versus natural geological forces. Cultural and economic importance Glaciers are found on every continent except Australia -- from Mount Kilimanjaro to the Austrian Alps and the Karakoram range in Pakistan. While most are clustered in the polar regions, their presence in mountain ranges across the world makes them vital to local ecosystems, agriculture and human communities. Vast bodies of snow, ice, rock, and sediment that gain mass in winter and lose it in summer, glaciers formed in the Earth's deep past when conditions were far colder than today. Their meltwater sustains rivers critical for farming, fisheries, and drinking water. Their loss can have profound ripple effects, from disrupting tourism economies to eroding cultural heritage. In recent years, symbolic glacier funerals have been held in Iceland, Switzerland and Mexico. "The question I always get is, why are you a glaciologist in Belgium?" said Zekollari. "Well -- sea level rise. Glaciers melt everywhere on Earth... and that affects coastal defenses even in places far from mountains." Around 25 percent of current sea-level rise is attributed to glacier melt. Even if all fossil fuel use stopped today, the study finds that 39 percent of glacier mass loss is already locked in -- enough to raise sea levels by at least 113 millimeters (4.4 inches). Uneven impacts One key finding of the study is that some glaciers are far more vulnerable than others -- and the global average obscures drastic regional losses. Glaciers in the European Alps, the Rockies of the US and Canada, and Iceland are expected to lose nearly all their ice at 2C of warming -- the fallback goal of the Paris accord. In the central and eastern Himalayas, whose rivers support hundreds of millions of people, only 25 percent of glacier ice would remain at 2C. By contrast, the west of the range may retain 60 percent of its ice at the same temperature thanks to its wide range of elevations, which allows some glaciers to persist at colder, higher altitudes, said Shuster. Glacier loss is already affecting communities. In a related commentary in Science, Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer of Rice University describe how the retreat of Oregon's Glisan Glacier has imperiled orchards, fisheries, and the cultural heritage of the Indigenous Quinault people. "Unfortunately we'll lose a lot, but with ambitious targets we can still save many of these glaciers -- which are not only beautiful, but vital for water supply, sea-level regulation, tourism, hydroelectricity, spiritual values, ecology, and more," said Zekollari.
Express Tribune
30-05-2025
- Science
- Express Tribune
Climate action could save vanishing glaciers
More than three-quarters of the world's glaciers are set to vanish if climate change continues unchecked, a major new study warned on Thursday, fueling sea-level rise and jeopardizing water supplies for billions. Published in Science, the international analysis provides the clearest picture yet of long-term glacier loss, revealing that every fraction of a degree in global temperature rise significantly worsens the outlook. It may sound grim, but co-lead author Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and ETH Zurich, told AFP the findings should be seen as a "message of hope." Under existing climate policies, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- a pathway that would ultimately erase 76 percent of current glacier mass over the coming centuries. But if warming is held to the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target, 54 percent of glacial mass could be preserved, according to the study, which combined outputs from eight glacier models to simulate ice loss across a range of future climate scenarios. "What is really special about this study is we can really show how every tenth of a degree of additional warming matters," co-lead author Lilian Schuster of the University of Innsbruck told AFP. The paper's release comes as Swiss authorities monitor flood risks following the collapse of the massive Birch Glacier, which destroyed an evacuated village. While Swiss glaciers have been heavily impacted by climate change, it remains unclear how much the latest disaster was driven by warming versus natural geological forces. Glaciers are found on every continent except Australia — from Mount Kilimanjaro to the Austrian Alps and the Karakoram range in Pakistan. While most are clustered in the polar regions, their presence in mountain ranges across the world makes them vital to local ecosystems, agriculture and human communities. Vast bodies of snow, ice, rock, and sediment that gain mass in winter and lose it in summer, glaciers formed in the Earth's deep past when conditions were far colder than today. Their meltwater sustains rivers critical for farming, fisheries, and drinking water.
Hindustan Times
30-05-2025
- Science
- Hindustan Times
Research finds glaciers far more vulnerable to global warming than earlier estimates
Glaciers worldwide are far more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously estimated, with potentially catastrophic consequences for billions who depend on glacier-fed water systems, according to new research published in the journal Science. The dangers from such climate crisis-linked change was evident on Wednesday. A massive rock and ice avalanche from Switzerland's Birch glacier thundered down a mountainside in Blatten, sending dust plumes skyward and coating the evacuated Alpine village with mud, according to a news report by AP. The comprehensive study reveals that only 24% of current glacier mass would survive if global temperatures rise by 2.7°C — the warming trajectory anticipated under existing climate policies. However, limiting warming to 1.5°C could preserve 54% of glacier mass, highlighting the critical importance of aggressive climate action. The findings carry particular significance for the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), where glaciers sustain river systems supporting 2 billion people. Under 1.5°C warming, only 40% of the region's 2020 glacier mass would remain, plummeting to just 25% at 2°C warming. 'Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters,' said lead author Harry Zekollari from Vrije Universiteit Brussel. 'The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved.' Regional variations within the vast HKH system are stark. The Central and Eastern Himalayas face nearly 63% glacier mass loss at 1.5°C warming, whilst the Western region — encompassing Hindu Kush, Karakorum and Western Himalayas — would lose approximately 17%. 'It is important to note that these projections are based on when the glaciers fully adjust to warmed climate, which can take hundreds of years,' explained James Kirkham, a glaciologist and climate scientist, based on the findings of the study. While overall findings of the paper are global and largely apply to very large glaciers around Antarctica and Greenland, 'the glacier regions most important to human communities are even more sensitive, with several losing nearly all glacier ice already at 2 degree C,' scientists have said. The European Alps, North American Rockies and Iceland would retain merely 10-15% of their 2020 ice levels under sustained 2°C warming. Scandinavia faces complete glacier loss at 2°C. Staying within 1.5°C warming offers a dramatically different scenario, preserving at least some glacier ice across all regions. Even Scandinavia would retain glacier ice, whilst the four most sensitive regions would maintain 20-30% of current levels, and the Himalayas and Caucasus would preserve 40-45%. The research, titled 'Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C' and conducted by 21 scientists from leading institutions including ETH Zurich, University of Innsbruck and University of Bristol, employed eight state-of-the-art glacier evolution models across 80 climate scenarios to simulate long-term mass loss for all glaciers outside the major ice sheets. 'Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing,' said co-lead author Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck. 'But the situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the mountains today.' The study's release coincided with the first global UN conference on glaciers in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, underscoring growing international concern over accelerating ice loss. Some regions, including the Central Andes of Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, plus East Africa and Indonesia, appear to maintain higher ice levels — but only because they have already suffered massive losses. Venezuela's last glacier, Humboldt, lost its glacier status in 2024, whilst Indonesia's ironically named 'Infinity Glacier' is expected to disappear within two years. European losses continue mounting. Germany lost one of its five remaining glaciers during the 2022 heatwave, whilst Slovenia likely lost its final glacier decades ago. The crisis has reached Nepal, where the Yala glacier in Langtang was recently declared 'dead'— the first Nepalese glacier to receive this designation. Glaciologists and local communities from Nepal, India, China and Bhutan gathered to commemorate its loss, marking it with a memorial plaque bearing words by author Andri Snaer Magnason. Yala becomes the first Asian glacier and third worldwide to receive such commemoration.
