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The Fed is unlikely to cut rates, but this week's meeting is packed with intrigue
The Fed is unlikely to cut rates, but this week's meeting is packed with intrigue

CNBC

time9 hours ago

  • Business
  • CNBC

The Fed is unlikely to cut rates, but this week's meeting is packed with intrigue

Considering nothing is likely to happen when it comes to major policy decisions, this week's Federal Reserve meeting is packed with intrigue. When the Federal Open Market Committee releases its interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon, the narrative is almost certain to look a lot like the June meeting, with little changed in the statement and officials again holding off on any cuts. However, several fascinating subplots will be in play. Consider: Ultimately, though, the committee is likely to stand pat, putting the distractions on the side and the decision over a cut off to September. "They're not going to get anything if they ease, other than they'll look like they're knuckling under to the president," said Bill English, the Fed's former head of monetary affairs and now a professor at the Yale School of Management. "So I think their best policy for sure is just to look at the data, make their best judgment, make their policy decision and explain it as well as they can." Powell will have his hands full outlining the committee's position considering the likely opposition coming from Waller and Bowman. In the run-up to the meeting, both have argued for cutting, saying essentially that with the tariff pass-through to inflation not yet apparent and a labor market "on the edge" as Waller described it in a speech less than two weeks ago, it's time for the Fed to ease. "With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate," Waller said in the speech titled "The Case for Cutting Now." Those comments likely will resonate with Trump, though a CNBC poll of market experts and economists showed just 14% believe Waller will get the nomination to replace Powell, whose term expires in May 2026. Leading contenders above Waller include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Governor Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director. Trump has called on Powell to resign, even threatening to fire him before backing off, and blamed the central bank leader for the FOMC's refusal to cut rates. The president has said the Fed should ease to help lower financing costs on the national debt and to unlock the housing market with its high mortgage rates. However, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and no other members besides Waller and Bowman have shown an inclination to cut at this meeting. Some officials even have advocated for no cuts this year, according to minutes from the June meeting. Governor Adriana Kugler will not be present, lowering the committee vote to 11. "The reason the Fed isn't cutting is not because of Jay Powell," former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on CNBC, using the chair's nickname. "The reason the Fed isn't coming is ... there's not a consensus around the table that it's time to cut, and there are 12 votes and he doesn't get to decide on his own." "If there was a different Fed chair right now, I think they also would not cut in July," he added. "So I think there's more nuance here than maybe is being reflected in the public comments." With no update on the Summary of Economic Projections or the accompanying "dot plot" of individual members' outlooks, investors will be left to pore through the statement and Powell's remarks to the press for clues on what happens next. There's still "a strong base case" for a cut in September, but that could change depending on the data, said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management. The June dot plot still pointed to two cuts this year, but it also showed a strong division among officials. "Although the Fed's decision is unlikely to surprise, this meeting should still be very interesting," Lafargue said.

New York Giants could recoup draft pick from Miami if Darren Waller produces
New York Giants could recoup draft pick from Miami if Darren Waller produces

USA Today

time15 hours ago

  • Sport
  • USA Today

New York Giants could recoup draft pick from Miami if Darren Waller produces

Veteran tight end Darren Waller surprised many in early July when he informed the New York Giants of his plans to unretire, but only if they shipped him off to the Miami Dolphins. The Giants obliged. General manager Joe Schoen traded Waller and a conditional 2027 seventh-round pick to Miami in exchange for a sixth-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. But that deal is not entirely set in stone. Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports that if Waller records 50-plus receptions in 2025, the Giants will recoup their seventh-round pick in the 2027 NFL draft. In 12 games (11 starts) with New York, Waller recorded 52 receptions for 552 yards and one touchdown, so it is plausible he produces similar numbers with the Dolphins, and the Giants get their pick back. Waller initially informed the Giants of his retirement in June 2024, a year removed from the team acquiring him in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders. However, he later revealed that his initial decision to retire came much sooner than that. "I knew I was retiring when we played in Buffalo," Waller said on The Side You Don't See podcast. "It was a game where it was really controversial because one of the guys held me at the end, and they didn't call it. "It was in the first quarter of the game. We were running this counter lead running play, and I'm kind of like leading through the hole like I'm a fullback, and the play is working. But I sit down on the sideline after like a drive where we ran like three times and I'm like, what the (expletive) am I doing with my life? I'm out here playing fullback. I don't even want to do this (expletive) anymore." What changed in Waller's mind is unclear.

Dolphins reportedly hosting free agent TE Noah Fant
Dolphins reportedly hosting free agent TE Noah Fant

USA Today

time2 days ago

  • Sport
  • USA Today

Dolphins reportedly hosting free agent TE Noah Fant

The Miami Dolphins are in the mix to land the top free agent tight end on the market. According to NFL insider Jordan Schultz, the Dolphins are hosting free agent tight end Noah Fant. Fant was cut by the Seattle Seahawks eight days ago after three seasons with the club. Over his three seasons with Seattle, Fant ranked 20th among tight ends in receptions (130), 21st in receiving yards (1,400) and tied for 38th in touchdowns (5). Fant's touchdown in the Seahawks' 2024 regular season finale at the Los Angeles Rams was his first time finding the end zone since late in 2022. Though his production in Seattle did not match the expectations, Fant would be a welcome sight in South Florida. The Dolphins traded away tight end Jonnu Smith after a Pro Bowl season last year as part of the Minkah Fitzpatrick deal. Miami traded for Darren Waller, but Waller is coming out of retirement to join the Dolphins. The early reports are that Waller isn't in football shape. That means the Dolphins are in the market for a proven, starting-caliber NFL tight end. Fant certainly fits that bill. Over his six-year NFL career thus far, Fant has reeled in 300 catches for 3,305 yards and 15 touchdowns. Fant's visit to the Dolphins marks his third visit since being released by Seattle. Fant has also visited with the Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints.

Travolta caps big day out for Collett and Waller on final Saturday
Travolta caps big day out for Collett and Waller on final Saturday

Sydney Morning Herald

time4 days ago

  • Sport
  • Sydney Morning Herald

Travolta caps big day out for Collett and Waller on final Saturday

Travolta stormed down the outside fence to win the last at Randwick and cap a satisfying finish to Saturday racing for jockey Jason Collett and premier Sydney trainer Chris Waller. The $10 Sportsbet chance held off stablemate Pure Alpha by just over a length to win the 1800m benchmark 78 handicap for colts, gelding and entires, giving Collett four victories on the card and Waller a double. Collett went to outright second on the Sydney jockeys' premiership on 71, four ahead of Zac Lloyd (67), with one midweek meeting remaining in the season. James McDonald (83) has wrapped up a seventh consecutive title. Collett, who claimed a first Doncaster Mile on Stefi Magnetica this season, also won on Nashville Jack, Regimental Colours and Oh Diamond Lil on Saturday. 'The Donnie was great, I think I've had just under 20 stakes winners, and I'm really proud of the season I've had,' Collett said. 'I've got to sit on some great horses and it just keeps building nicely. I love what I do and I'm fortunate I have a job I enjoy.' Waller earlier won with Cigar Flick ($12), which swooped down the outside from near-last under Tommy Berry to take out the benchmark 88 handicap (1100m) by just over a length from World Alliance. 'She's a frustrating horse, but she tries her hardest,' Waller said. 'She's going well, but she's reached her level, so it's not easy to win. She needs everything to flow, she needs to come into the race at the right, the right track conditions, and today it was.'

Travolta caps big day out for Collett and Waller on final Saturday
Travolta caps big day out for Collett and Waller on final Saturday

The Age

time4 days ago

  • Sport
  • The Age

Travolta caps big day out for Collett and Waller on final Saturday

Travolta stormed down the outside fence to win the last at Randwick and cap a satisfying finish to Saturday racing for jockey Jason Collett and premier Sydney trainer Chris Waller. The $10 Sportsbet chance held off stablemate Pure Alpha by just over a length to win the 1800m benchmark 78 handicap for colts, gelding and entires, giving Collett four victories on the card and Waller a double. Collett went to outright second on the Sydney jockeys' premiership on 71, four ahead of Zac Lloyd (67), with one midweek meeting remaining in the season. James McDonald (83) has wrapped up a seventh consecutive title. Collett, who claimed a first Doncaster Mile on Stefi Magnetica this season, also won on Nashville Jack, Regimental Colours and Oh Diamond Lil on Saturday. 'The Donnie was great, I think I've had just under 20 stakes winners, and I'm really proud of the season I've had,' Collett said. 'I've got to sit on some great horses and it just keeps building nicely. I love what I do and I'm fortunate I have a job I enjoy.' Waller earlier won with Cigar Flick ($12), which swooped down the outside from near-last under Tommy Berry to take out the benchmark 88 handicap (1100m) by just over a length from World Alliance. 'She's a frustrating horse, but she tries her hardest,' Waller said. 'She's going well, but she's reached her level, so it's not easy to win. She needs everything to flow, she needs to come into the race at the right, the right track conditions, and today it was.'

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