Latest news with #WashingtonInstitute
Nahar Net
18-07-2025
- Politics
- Nahar Net
Smuggling attempts to Hezbollah increasing via Syria, report says
Tehran is reportedly making new efforts to arm its allies including Hezbollah across the Middle East. Senior fellow at the Washington Institute for near east policy Michael Knights said that "Iran is rebuilding its presence in the Levant by sending missiles to Hezbollah and weapons from Iraq to Syria". Smuggling attempts to Hezbollah are increasing via Syria, though a hostile government in Damascus has crimped the arms pipeline, said Michael Cardash, the former deputy head of the Israeli National Police Bomb Disposal Division, adding that traffickers have now to smuggle arms in small shipments instead of sending truckloads. The Wall Street Journal said Hezbollah is now manufacturing its own drones and medium-range rockets and has somewhat rebuilt its smuggling networks. The group has managed to smuggle in some Kornet missiles and other advanced weapons, the American newspaper said. The Israeli army meanwhile claimed that Hezbollah is attempting to rebuild its capabilities in several locations. The statement came after separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon killed four people including a woman Thursday. Last month, Syria's new government said it seized a number of weapons cargoes, including Grad rockets mounted on trucks along its borders with Iraq and Lebanon, while fighters allied to Yemen's exiled government had claimed Wednesday they had seized 750 tons of Iranian-supplied missiles and weaponry bound for the country's Houthi rebels.
Washington Post
06-07-2025
- Politics
- Washington Post
Netanyahu's legacy won't be made on the battlefield alone
Dennis Ross, a special assistant to President Barack Obama, is counselor and distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Late one evening, during negotiations over the Hebron protocol in December 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu said to me out of the blue that he was going to 'do what Ben-Gurion did.'
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Is It So Important?
Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, in what would serve as another act of retaliation, after the U.S. launched strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. While there was a brief reprieve in the tension after President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran on Monday, the conflict has erupted again, with both sides accusing each other of breaking the preliminary cease-fire terms. Now, concerns over the Strait of Hormuz are once again at an all-time high. Iran controls the Northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage which sees significant global trade pass through daily. If it so wished, Iran could block vessels from journeying through, or disrupt trade by seizing and attacking shipping containers and oil or gas tankers in the area. With roughly 20 million barrels of oil passing through the Strait daily, making up about a fifth of global consumption, any interruption could be catastrophic. Here's what to know about the Strait of Hormuz, its grave importance, and what stands to happen if the passage is disrupted amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, of which the U.S. is now an active participant. The Strait is narrow, stretching roughly 31 miles at its widest point. Iran is on its north bank opposite Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Most oil exports from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE pass through, as well as Iran's own exports. Around 20% of global liquid natural gas exports also flow through the passage, mostly originating from Qatar. The passage has long been an area of tension and geopolitical significance. In 2019, two ships were struck, one flying a Marshall Islands flag and the other from Panama, whilst passing through. The U.S. blamed Iran for the attacks, which Tehran denied. A month prior, four other tankers—two from Saudi Arabia, the others from the UAE and Norway—were struck by suspected underwater mines, which the U.S. accused Iran of planting. Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on energy and maritime risks, says that some countries, such as Iraq, rely on the Strait for nearly all of its energy exports, whereas other exporters have fairly reliable alternatives to fall back on, should disruption occur. Read More: Even Iranians Beaten and Imprisoned by an Unforgiving Regime Condemn Foreign Interference. Here's Why The Iranian Parliament on Sunday voted in favour of closing the Strait of Hormuz. The decision of whether to carry out that action now lies with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'Just verbal threats from Iran are causing concerns in the global market. So imagine how the impact will be if they really acted on their threats,' says Raydan. However, the maritime expert believes that a complete closure of the passage is unlikely as it would cause just as much harm to Iran themselves. 'The Strait of Hormuz is very important to Iranian allies such as China, because most of Iran's oil goes to China. Closing the Strait would also turn relations between Iran and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries sour,' Raydan says, adding that Iranian relations with GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are currently stable and also not worth risking. 'Iran can cause disruptions and keep the oil markets jittery by only carrying out individual maritime attacks,' Raydan argues, saying isolated assaults are far more likely than a closing of the entire passage. She warns, however, that should Iranian energy infrastructure be targeted in further attacks, the Iranian response could be more severe, but "for right now, we should [instead] consider the maritime arena… there's a track history of Iran using that to retaliate.' Iran took part in the so-called Tanker War during the 1980s amid active conflict with Iraq, which saw oil tankers targeted by the Iranian military. The U.S. became involved and protected the tankers, in particular those flying U.S. flags, which it is bound to protect under maritime law. Iran previously threatened to block the strait in 2011, when Iran's then-Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi declared that oil would not pass through the waters if Western sanctions against Iran were widened. The sanctions were issued as a result of concerns over Iran's nuclear capabilities—the very topic at the forefront of the current conflict. In this instance, Iran did not follow through on its threat. As TIME noted in 2011: International maritime law guarantees unimpeded transit through straits, and any deliberate military disruption can be considered an act of war. Oil exporters and importers would stand to be vastly impacted by a closure. And the economic ripple effect would surely be felt far and wide. According to Deutsche Bank, the cost of a barrel of oil could surge to around $120, should Iran block the passage or cause disruption to its shipping lanes. The cost of a barrel currently stands at around $75. John Konrad, author and founder of maritime news site gCaptain, says that barriers on new tanker constructions and any disruption to production chains could have a 'massive' economic and social impact. 'If you have a slowdown in natural gas, you could have a slowdown in fertilizer,' he says, adding that this could lead to 'food shortages and unrest' in a worst-case scenario. The 'ton mile cost' of shipping oil and natural gas will largely increase if Iran were to block trade through the Strait of Hormuz, Konrad argues, even if importers find alternative sources. 'The main thing about disruptions and shipping is the ton mile. How many miles does it take to move a ton of oil, and what is that cost?' Kondrad notes. 'The United States is a lot further away from Europe, and much further away from the massive energy consumption in China and Japan and Korea than the Middle East. So what makes the Middle East [so powerful] is not only the abundance of oil, but its central location between Europe and Asia.' European consumers would also feel the impact of any disruption in Hormuz, specifically North-West Europe, when it comes to the prices of gas, oil, and jet fuel. 'U.S. refineries might intervene and substitute any gap, but still, disruptions would be felt. Prices will be higher,' Raydan says, adding that there would also be logistical issues, similar to those felt when Houthi strikes disrupted trade in the Red Sea following the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Read More: What Conflict in the Middle East Means for Climate Change U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned against action in the Strait of Hormuz from Iran in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. 'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call him [Khamenei] about that because they [China] heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for oil,' Rubio said when asked if he expected Iran to close the Strait and disrupt global oil supplies. Rubio emphasized the U.S. viewpoint that any measures taken to disrupt supply chains in the Persian Gulf would be 'another terrible mistake.' 'It's economic suicide it they do it and we retain options to deal with that. It would be a massive escalation that would merit a response,' he warned. China has also expressed deep concern over the escalating conflict, and the potential for disruption in trade. 'The Persian Gulf and nearby waters are [an] important route for international trade in goods and energy. Keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community,' said Guo Jiakun, the spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a press conference on Monday. "China calls on the international community to step up effort to promote de-escalation of the conflict, and prevent the regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic growth." Jiakun went on to emphasize that "China stands ready to step up communication with Iran and other relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role for a de-escalation." U.K Foreign Minister David Lammy also spoke out on Monday, expressing concerns over the news from the Iranian parliament. 'It would be a mistake to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, I think he [Khamenei] gets that and understands that,' a hopeful Lammy told the BBC. In agreement, Kaja Kallas, the European Union representative for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters on Monday: 'The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is something that would be extremely dangerous and not good for anybody.' Contact us at letters@
Time Magazine
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time Magazine
What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Is It So Important?
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, in what would serve as another act of retaliation after the U.S. launched strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Iran controls the Northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage which sees significant global trade pass through daily. If it so wished, Iran could block vessels from journeying through, or disrupt trade by seizing and attacking shipping containers and oil or gas tankers in the area. With roughly 20 million barrels of oil passing through the Strait daily, making up about a fifth of global consumption, any interruption could be catastrophic. Here's what to know about the Strait of Hormuz, its grave importance, and what stands to happen if the passage is disrupted amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, of which the U.S. is now an active participant. What is the Strait of Hormuz? The Strait is narrow, stretching roughly 31 miles at its widest point. Iran is on its north bank opposite Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Most oil exports from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE pass through, as well as Iran's own exports. Around 20% of global liquid natural gas exports also flow through the passage, mostly originating from Qatar. The passage has long been an area of tension and geopolitical significance. In 2019, two ships were struck, one flying a Marshall Islands flag and the other from Panama, whilst passing through. The U.S. blamed Iran for the attacks, which Tehran denied. A month prior, four other tankers—two from Saudi Arabia, the others from the UAE and Norway—were struck by suspected underwater mines, which the U.S. accused Iran of planting. Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on energy and maritime risks, says that some countries, such as Iraq, rely on the Strait for nearly all of its energy exports, whereas other exporters have fairly reliable alternatives to fall back on, should disruption occur. What has Iran said about closing the Strait of Hormuz? The Iranian Parliament on Sunday voted in favour of closing the Strait of Hormuz. The decision of whether to carry out that action now lies with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'Just verbal threats from Iran are causing concerns in the global market. So imagine how the impact will be if they really acted on their threats,' says Raydan. However, the maritime expert believes that a complete closure of the passage is unlikely as it would cause just as much harm to Iran themselves. 'The Strait of Hormuz is very important to Iranian allies such as China, because most of Iran's oil goes to China. Closing the Strait would also turn relations between Iran and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries sour,' Raydan says, adding that Iranian relations with GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are currently stable and also not worth risking. 'Iran can cause disruptions and keep the oil markets jittery by only carrying out individual maritime attacks,' Raydan argues, saying isolated assaults are far more likely than a closing of the entire passage. She warns, however, that should Iranian energy infrastructure be targeted in further attacks, the Iranian response could be more severe, but "for right now, we should [instead] consider the maritime arena… there's a track history of Iran using that to retaliate.' Iran took part in the so-called Tanker War during the 1980s amid active conflict with Iraq, which saw oil tankers targeted by the Iranian military. The U.S. became involved and protected the tankers, in particular those flying U.S. flags, which it is bound to protect under maritime law. Has Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz before—and did it follow through on its threat? Iran previously threatened to block the strait in 2011, when Iran's then-Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi declared that oil would not pass through the waters if Western sanctions against Iran were widened. The sanctions were issued as a result of concerns over Iran's nuclear capabilities—the very topic at the forefront of the current conflict. In this instance, Iran did not follow through on its threat. As TIME noted in 2011: International maritime law guarantees unimpeded transit through straits, and any deliberate military disruption can be considered an act of war. What would be the impact on global trade if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz? Oil exporters and importers would stand to be vastly impacted by a closure. And the economic ripple effect would surely be felt far and wide. According to Deutsche Bank, the cost of a barrel of oil could surge to around $120, should Iran block the passage or cause disruption to its shipping lanes. The cost of a barrel currently stands at around $75. John Konrad, author and founder of maritime news site gCaptain, says that barriers on new tanker constructions and any disruption to production chains could have a 'massive' economic and social impact. 'If you have a slowdown in natural gas, you could have a slowdown in fertilizer,' he says, adding that this could lead to 'food shortages and unrest' in a worst-case scenario. The 'ton mile cost' of shipping oil and natural gas will largely increase if Iran were to block trade through the Strait of Hormuz, Konrad argues, even if importers find alternative sources. 'The main thing about disruptions and shipping is the ton mile. How many miles does it take to move a ton of oil, and what is that cost?' Kondrad notes. 'The United States is a lot further away from Europe, and much further away from the massive energy consumption in China and Japan and Korea than the Middle East. So what makes the Middle East [so powerful] is not only the abundance of oil, but its central location between Europe and Asia.' European consumers would also feel the impact of any disruption in Hormuz, specifically North-West Europe, when it comes to the prices of gas, oil, and jet fuel. 'U.S. refineries might intervene and substitute any gap, but still, disruptions would be felt. Prices will be higher,' Raydan says, adding that there would also be logistical issues, similar to those felt when Houthi strikes disrupted trade in the Red Sea following the start of the Israel-Hamas war. How have lawmakers from the U.S., U.K., China, and beyond responded? U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned against action in the Strait of Hormuz from Iran in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. 'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call him [Khamenei] about that because they [China] heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for oil,' Rubio said when asked if he expected Iran to close the Strait and disrupt global oil supplies. Rubio emphasized the U.S. viewpoint that any measures taken to disrupt supply chains in the Persian Gulf would be 'another terrible mistake.' 'It's economic suicide it they do it and we retain options to deal with that. It would be a massive escalation that would merit a response,' he warned. China has also expressed deep concern over the escalating conflict, and the potential for disruption in trade. 'The Persian Gulf and nearby waters are [an] important route for international trade in goods and energy. Keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community,' said Guo Jiakun, the spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a press conference on Monday. "China calls on the international community to step up effort to promote de-escalation of the conflict, and prevent the regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic growth." Jiakun went on to emphasize that "China stands ready to step up communication with Iran and other relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role for a de-escalation." U.K Foreign Minister David Lammy also spoke out on Monday, expressing concerns over the news from the Iranian parliament. 'It would be a mistake to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, I think he [Khamenei] gets that and understands that,' a hopeful Lammy told the BBC. In agreement, Kaja Kallas, the European Union representative for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters on Monday: 'The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is something that would be extremely dangerous and not good for anybody.'
Mint
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Israeli air dominance means it is shooting down Iranian missiles before they launch
Iran is firing fewer missiles at Israel each day after Israel secured dominance over Iranian skies, enabling it to destroy launchers and take out missiles before they even leave the ground. Israel said on Sunday that it had created an air corridor to Tehran. By Monday, it said its air force had complete control over the skies of Tehran. Since then it has struck dozens of missile launchers amounting to more than a third of Iran's total, the military said, sometimes just as they are preparing to launch an attack. On Wednesday, the military said it had struck overnight a loaded 'Emad" missile launcher as it was about to be fired toward Israel. The air force has also been striking daily Iran's supply of missiles, detection radars and missile batteries, in the wake of Israel's Thursday night attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and senior leadership. This aerial control is proving crucial. Iran fired some 200 missiles in four barrages in its first round of attacks against Israel on Friday and Saturday. But between Tuesday and Wednesday, Iran fired 60 missiles at Israel over eight different waves of strikes, at times sending fewer than a dozen at a time, according to estimates by Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America. Fewer missiles at a time makes it easier for Israeli air-defense systems to intercept them, according to Israeli officials and air-defense experts. There have been no casualties from missile attacks in Israel since Tuesday, according to Israeli paramedics. Twenty-four Israelis have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes since the current confrontation began. Iran's plan, according to statements by senior Iranian military officials before the war, was to overwhelm Israeli air defenses by firing around 400 missiles a day against Israel, said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute. 'Those plans were all shattered when Israel just defeated Iran's integrated air-defense systems, and within a short period," Nadimi said. Israel's aircraft and other security forces have destroyed 120 missile launchers, squeezing Iran's capability to strike Israel, according to Israeli officials. Israel's control over Iranian skies means it is also been regularly striking Iran's missile storage and production capabilities. Iran started the current conflict with around 2,000 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, and has fired around 400 of those so far, according to Israeli military estimates. Experts say Iran has a lot more missiles and many more other kinds of missiles in its arsenal, but it isn't clear how many of those are able to hit faraway targets like Israel. Smoke rising in Herzliya, Israel, after an Iranian missile attack. Some analysts are also speculating that Iran may be withholding large salvos ahead of a possible expansion of the war. President Trump issued threats against Iran and its leadership on Tuesday, suggesting the U.S. could join the war. Israel's aerial dominance is providing the country with some confidence that the impact of the conflict could be contained, at least in Israel. On Wednesday, Israel's airport authorities allowed the first flight to land at Ben Gurion international airport since the start of the current conflict, indicating it feels it has some control over the airspace. Israel's home front command, also on Wednesday, said it would lift some of the restrictions on public gatherings and allow businesses with or near bomb shelters to reopen. Israel has bomb shelters built all around the country and dotting its cities, making many businesses in range of protection. Israel's ability to spot, foil and intercept launches is likely forcing the Iranians to be more careful about moving missile launchers around, because moving makes them more vulnerable to attack, said Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser and fellow at JINSA. Amidror said Israel has also succeeded in disrupting Iranian command-and-control by targeting its senior and midlevel commands, further reducing their ability to coordinate large missile attacks. 'Take all the elements together and they still have a huge potential and may use it in the future, but for the time being Israel has degraded their ability to launch big salvos at many times during the day," Amidror said. Fabian Hinz, research fellow for missile technologies and UAVs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that Iran is now having to fire missiles at Israel from farther away, which means they are relying mainly on their liquid propellant weapons that have sufficient 1,000-mile range to hit Israel. These liquid propellant ballistic missiles have a number of disadvantages compared with solid propellant missiles, according to Hinz, which is why Iran has been focusing its work on developing longer-range solid propellant missiles in recent years. The biggest disadvantage is they take a considerable amount of time—perhaps a couple of hours—to fuel up, which means Iran can't fire a quick barrage of missiles, as they can with solid propellant missiles. That leaves them more exposed to Israeli strikes. They also require more personnel and trucks to prepare them, which again makes them more visible to Israeli attacks. The fuel liquid propellant missiles use includes extremely hazardous and toxic chemicals, requiring personnel to use protective gear and creating greater safety risks. And the fuel is less well protected within the missile than with solid propellant missiles. 'If you have the Israeli air force overhead hunting for launchers, you really want a system that allows you to launch with minimal preparation and get away as quickly as possible," Hinz said. Nadimi said he expects Iran to pivot to using its most advanced missiles to hit strategic targets like defense industries, military facilities or high-value economic targets. He noted that Iran on Tuesday night said it fired Fattah 1 missiles, which fly at hypersonic speed and have a warhead that can maneuver as it closes in on its target, making it harder for air defenses to intercept. Israeli defense companies are working on systems to intercept hypersonic missiles but they aren't in use yet, a vulnerability in Israel's defenses, he said. Judging the success of Iran's most advanced missiles will be difficult due to strict censorship in Israel against the publication of successful strikes against security-related or other sensitive targets, Nadimi said. If Israel begins to run out of interceptors, Iran could pivot back to its original strategy of trying to overwhelm Israeli air defenses, he added. Write to Dov Lieber at
