Latest news with #WayneCole
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Asia stocks, yen look past Japan politics as earnings loom
By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian shares and the yen held their ground on Monday as Japanese elections proved bad for the government but no worse than already priced in, while Wall Street futures braced for earnings from the first of the tech giants. Investors were also hoping for some progress in trade talks ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 tariff deadline, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick still confident a deal could be reached with the European Union. There were reports Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were closer to arranging a meeting, though likely not until October at the earliest. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stolen a march and will meet with Xi on Thursday. In Japan, the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline looms. Ishiba vowed to stay in the position, which along with a market holiday, limited the reaction and the yen was 0.4% firmer at 148.29 to the dollar. "The loss was within the range of expectations, and actually the outlook was even more pessimistic," said Nissay Research Institute chief economist Tsuyoshi Ueno. "In terms of negotiations with the U.S., it is easy to doubt whether a government with such a weak foundation is reliable as a negotiating partner," he added. "For the Bank of Japan, if there is political instability, it will be difficult to raise interest rates, and pressure on the yen will continue." The BOJ still has a bias to raise rates further but markets imply little chance of a move until late October. While the Nikkei was shut, futures traded at 39,885 and up on the cash close of 39,819. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1%, while South Korean stocks added 0.5%. Chinese blue chips firmed 0.3%, led by rare earth and construction sectors, as Beijing kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected. MEGA CAPS KICK OFF EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both dipped 0.3%, while FTSE futures were flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.2%, and are already around record highs in anticipation of more solid earnings reports. A host of companies reporting this week include Alphabet and Tesla, along with IBM. Investors also expect upbeat news for defence groups RTX, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. Ramped up government spending across the globe has seen the S&P 500 aerospace and defence sector rise 30% this year. Tech giant Microsoft issued an alert about "active attacks" on server software used by government agencies and businesses, urging customers to download security updates. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury futures held steady having dipped late last week after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his call for a rate cut this month. Most of his colleagues, including Chair Jerome Powell, have argued a pause is warranted to judge the true inflationary impact of tariffs and markets imply almost no chance of a move in July. A September cut is put at 61%, rising to 80% for October. Powell's reticence on rates has drawn the ire of Trump who threatened to fire the Fed chief, before backing down. The spectre of a potential political appointee who would seek to ease policy sharply has investors on edge. The European Central Bank meets this week and is expected to hold its rates steady at 2.0% following a string of cuts. "The press conference will likely keep highlighting uncertainty and need to wait for tariff negotiations to conclude before deciding the next step," said analysts at TD Securities in a note. "Similarly, its 'meeting-by-meeting' language would be retained in the release." The euro was unchanged at $1.1630 in early trading, having dipped 0.5% last week and away from its recent near-four-year top of $1.1830. The dollar index was a fraction lower at 98.373. In commodity markets, gold firmed 0.5% to $3,367 an ounce with all the recent action in platinum which last week hit its highest since August 2014. [GOL/] Oil prices were caught between the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ and the risk European Union sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could curb its exports.[O/R] Brent edged up 0.1% to $69.38 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 0.2% to $67.50 per barrel. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Asia shares, yen weather Japan uncertainty as earnings loom
By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian shares and the yen held their ground on Monday as Japanese elections proved bad for the government but no worse than already priced in, while Wall Street futures braced for earnings from the first of the tech giants. Investors were also hoping for some progress in trade talks ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 tariff deadline, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick still confident a deal could be reached with the European Union. There were reports Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were closer to arranging a meeting, though likely not until October at the earliest. In Japan, the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline looms. Ishiba expressed his intention to stay in the position, which along with a market holiday, limited the reaction and the yen was 0.4% firmer at 148.29 to the dollar. "Ishiba will try to govern with support from some within the opposition, but this likely means a looser fiscal policy and is not good news for bond yields," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB. "History also suggests that domestic political uncertainty tends to keep the BOJ on the side-lines, so the prospect of rate hikes is now set to be delayed for a little bit longer." The Bank of Japan still has a bias to raise rates further but markets are pricing little chance of a move until the end of October. While the Nikkei was shut, futures traded up at 39,875 and just above the cash close of 39,819. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, while South Korean stocks added 0.4%. MEGA CAPS KICK OFF S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.1%, and are already at record highs in anticipation of more solid earnings reports. A host of companies reporting this week include Alphabet and Tesla, along with IBM. Investors also expect upbeat news for defence groups RTX, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. Ramped up government spending across the globe has seen the S&P 500 aerospace and defence sector rise 30% this year. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury futures held steady having dipped late last week after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his call for a rate cut this month. Most of his colleagues, including Chair Jerome Powell, have argued a pause is warranted to judge the true inflationary impact of tariffs and markets imply almost no chance of a move in July. A September cut is put at 61%, rising to 80% for October. Powell's reticence on rates has drawn the ire of Trump who threatened to fire the Fed chief, before backing down. The spectre of a potential political appointee who would seek to ease policy sharply has investors on edge. The European Central Bank meets this week and is expected to hold its rates steady at 2.0% following a string of cuts. "The press conference will likely keep highlighting uncertainty and need to wait for tariff negotiations to conclude before deciding the next step," said analysts at TD Securities in a note. "Similarly, its 'meeting-by-meeting' language would be retained in the release." The euro was unchanged at $1.1630 in early trading, having dipped 0.5% last week and away from its recent near-four-year top of $1.1830. The dollar index was a fraction lower at 98.40. In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $3,348 an ounce with all the recent action in platinum which last week hit its highest since August 2014. [GOL/] Oil prices were caught between the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ and the risk European Union sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could curb its exports.[O/R] Brent edged up 0.1% to $69.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 0.1% to $67.39 per barrel. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Asia shares, yen weather Japan uncertainty as earnings loom
By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian shares and the yen held their ground on Monday as Japanese elections proved bad for the government but no worse than already priced in, while Wall Street futures braced for earnings from the first of the tech giants. Investors were also hoping for some progress in trade talks ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 tariff deadline, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick still confident a deal could be reached with the European Union. There were reports Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were closer to arranging a meeting, though likely not until October at the earliest. In Japan, the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline looms. Ishiba expressed his intention to stay in the position, which along with a market holiday, limited the reaction and the yen was 0.4% firmer at 148.29 to the dollar. "Ishiba will try to govern with support from some within the opposition, but this likely means a looser fiscal policy and is not good news for bond yields," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB. "History also suggests that domestic political uncertainty tends to keep the BOJ on the side-lines, so the prospect of rate hikes is now set to be delayed for a little bit longer." The Bank of Japan still has a bias to raise rates further but markets are pricing little chance of a move until the end of October. While the Nikkei was shut, futures traded up at 39,875 and just above the cash close of 39,819. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, while South Korean stocks added 0.4%. MEGA CAPS KICK OFF S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.1%, and are already at record highs in anticipation of more solid earnings reports. A host of companies reporting this week include Alphabet and Tesla, along with IBM. Investors also expect upbeat news for defence groups RTX, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. Ramped up government spending across the globe has seen the S&P 500 aerospace and defence sector rise 30% this year. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury futures held steady having dipped late last week after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his call for a rate cut this month. Most of his colleagues, including Chair Jerome Powell, have argued a pause is warranted to judge the true inflationary impact of tariffs and markets imply almost no chance of a move in July. A September cut is put at 61%, rising to 80% for October. Powell's reticence on rates has drawn the ire of Trump who threatened to fire the Fed chief, before backing down. The spectre of a potential political appointee who would seek to ease policy sharply has investors on edge. The European Central Bank meets this week and is expected to hold its rates steady at 2.0% following a string of cuts. "The press conference will likely keep highlighting uncertainty and need to wait for tariff negotiations to conclude before deciding the next step," said analysts at TD Securities in a note. "Similarly, its 'meeting-by-meeting' language would be retained in the release." The euro was unchanged at $1.1630 in early trading, having dipped 0.5% last week and away from its recent near-four-year top of $1.1830. The dollar index was a fraction lower at 98.40. In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $3,348 an ounce with all the recent action in platinum which last week hit its highest since August 2014. [GOL/] Oil prices were caught between the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ and the risk European Union sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could curb its exports.[O/R] Brent edged up 0.1% to $69.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 0.1% to $67.39 per barrel.
Mint
16-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Australia, NZ dollars draw support, with help from yen weakness
SYDNEY, July 16 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars found support on Wednesday after losing ground to a broadly firmer U.S. dollar, with the Aussie managing to hit a fresh five-month top on a struggling Japanese yen. The U.S. currency was lifted by Treasury yields after June consumer price data showed tariffs were starting to push up costs in import-heavy sectors, leading investors to trim bets on the extent of further rate cuts. That saw the Aussie retreat almost 0.5% overnight to as low as $0.6508, before bouncing 0.2% to $0.6529 in local trade. More support lies at $0.6485, with resistance at the recent eight-month high of $0.6595. The kiwi dollar edged back up to $0.5960, having also dipped 0.5% overnight to $0.5939. Support lies around $0.5926, with resistance at $0.6005 and $0.6043. The Aussie was aided by gains on the yen, where it crossed 97.00 for the first time since mid-February and looked set to test resistance at 97.30. Australian 10-year bond yields tracked the sell off in Treasuries to touch a seven-week top of 4.44%, leaving the spread to the U.S. at -6 basis points. On the domestic front, the next major hurdle for the Aussie will be jobs figures for June on Thursday. Median forecasts are for a bounce of 20,000 after a rare dip in May, with the jobless rate holding at 4.1% and where it has been for much of the past year. The unemployment rate has been stuck between 3.9% and 4.2% since late 2023, a surprising stretch of resilience in the face of a slowdown in the overall economy. This was a major reason the Reserve Bank of Australia felt it had time to skip a rate cut this month to wait for more inflation news. Any uptick in unemployment, therefore, would make it much more likely the central bank will ease at its August meeting. Analysts at NAB noted the rotation of respondents in the jobs survey suggested there was some risk of a higher unemployment rate in June. "Our base case remains for a modest rise in the unemployment rate looking forward, but not for a sharp deterioration," they wrote in a note. Markets imply around an 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut to 3.60%, but were equally confident of a move this month only to be badly wrongfooted. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
Mint
14-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
MORNING BID EUROPE-The art of hogging headlines, using tariffs
July 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It looks increasingly clear that for President Trump, tariffs are mainly a convenient means of dominating the news cycle and staying in the headlines. Not for him are months of tortuous, complex trade talks aimed at a win-win outcome. Why do that when you can tweet a 30% tariff threat on a Saturday morning and own the news for an entire weekend? Figuring this is mostly a negotiation tactic, markets have eased only modestly in Asia. S&P 500 futures are off 0.4% or so while most regional indices are down only slightly. The euro is down a fraction, but European futures have lost a larger 0.7% as it's hard to see how Brussels could ever satisfy Trump's demands, in part because it's not clear what he wants. EU tariffs on U.S. goods are already so minor there is little to cut, while granting exemption to domestic taxes and regulations is politically fraught. It's also possible the market's stoic reaction will prove to be too clever by half. Investors figure Trump really, really wants to avoid another market melt-down, so will ease up on tariffs when the crunch comes. But with U.S. stocks hitting record highs and bond yields well off their peaks, Trump could be forgiven for thinking markets are now on his side and realise how "beautiful" tariffs really are. At any rate, it seems certain that the effective U.S. tariff rate will be akin to the Smoot-Hawley levies that contributed so much to the Great Depression and we'll get to see if Trump is right and the vast majority of professional economists are wrong. They don't yet look to have magically solved the U.S. trade deficit. China today reported its surplus with the U.S. rose 48% in June to almost $27 billion, while its overall exports beat forecasts. Trump also found time to stoke his feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying it would be "a great thing" if he stepped down - eight years after he nominated Powell to the role. Worryingly, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett over the weekend warned Trump might have grounds to fire Powell because of renovation cost overruns at the Fed's Washington headquarters. Analysts assume a Trump pick for Fed chief would do his bidding by trying to cut interest rates aggressively, though whether the rest of FOMC voters would agree is in doubt. This could push short-term market rates lower, but longer-term yields would likely rise as investors demand compensation for the risk of faster inflation, much as happened in Turkey. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - ECB board member Piero Cipollone appears at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
