3 days ago
What Eluned Morgan's Welsh Labour needs to do to win the Senedd election
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On Saturday night, some of Labour's biggest hitters were in a room listening to the findings of hours of polling and analysis about what the numbers show about Labour's electoral chances in 2026.
The Welsh Election Study is a comprehensive piece of work that looks at voting patterns and results from the 2024 general election, and the results did not make comfortable listening for Labour but anyone who left that room thinking the words can be ignored would be wrong.
The Welsh Government was not popular at the general election, people viewed it negatively, but Labour still did well, because the UK Government was less popular.
On key metrics like education and the NHS, people think services have got worse, and it is the Welsh Government's fault. That is clearly a problem for Labour. People think their standard of living has got worse, but for that they blamed the UK Government mainly, but it still wasn't good news for the Welsh Government.
That discontent is playing out in polls - more than now one - projecting the party which has had a longstanding record of success in Wales will get 18% of the vote at the Senedd election in just over 10 months time.
Of course, it is more than just Labour policies, there are global matters at play, there is a tendency across the western world to turn away from established politics. Populist politicians and parties are doing well the world over. Wars, finances, the economic climate are all things out of Labour's control.
But when this room of experts were asked to list the thing they think Labour needs to do, the message was fairly simple. Labour in Wales needs a clear set of simple messages and with a clear intended audience.
That's not so hard, is it? Well, maybe.
The background is this, UK Labour is targeting its attacks at Reform. But it's not really clear why when you look at who voted for Reform UK in 2024, thus giving us an insight who may do it in 2026.
We know Reform is expected to do well in the election in May 2026 and it could end up as the biggest party, so too could Plaid Cymru. With the obvious disclaimers that the election is a long way away, far from the front of most peoples' minds, and that polling is just a snapshot in time, there is one thing crystal clear - no-one expects it to be Labour.
And yet, Eluned Morgan keeps talking about Nigel Farage and the danger his party poses. The First Minister made that clear when she said they were a "real danger" to the NHS in Wales, workers rights, public services. However, it isn't (on the whole) Labour voters - the WES data shows - who are going to vote for them.
UK Labour keeps targeting Reform policies too - despite the same being true in England too. Reform isn't taking swathes of Labour voters.
The support Labour is losing is mainly, Plaid, but also Lib Dems and Greens. Reform is gaining support in Wales is coming from a combination of new voters (those who don't normally vote) and disaffected Conservatives.
And yet it was Reform that Keir Starmer, Jo Stevens and Eluned Morgan mainly chose to target - although the latter two did mention Plaid Cymru too.
The message from academic experts at the party event was to work out who they are focusing on.
The other message that came from the event was that the messages need to be simple. The First Minister told BBC Wales' Sunday Supplement she "I am responsible for making sure the party has a clear sense of direction and purpose within Wales". She spoke on the radio that she was focusing on the "bread and butter issues".
And yet, that is one of the biggest criticisms from her within the party - that there isn't clear direction. There are concerns she has far too many communications advisors, and not enough focusing on actual policy, resulting in a scattergun approach.
When her party colleagues went to Llandudno, they heard her speech cover the bases you'd expect - well rehearsed pledges about waiting times and potholes - and she added in commitments to mental health and £5m to tidying up towns (albeit divisible by 22 local authorities) but there was also an eight minute segment about Artificial Intelligence committing money, resources, and now a pre-election pledge to something, quite frankly, something that many simply don't understand how Wales would ever have a stake in.
There was widespread confusion why, in a central speech at a crucial time, the First Minister spent eight minutes of her speech talking about AI and committing £2.5m to the development of "excellence zone" in Wales. It was, more than one person said, typical of the chaotic approach at the top of Welsh Labour, with ideas switched between at the drop of a hat.
No-one really saw that coming, and knows what it actually means in Wales, nor what £2.5m of funding can actually do to achieve. It is just pennies in a vast virtual ocean.
She is facing repeating questions too about her influence on Keir Starmer's government. While Eluned Morgan kept telling journalists that Welsh Government pressure had helped force the welfare u-turn, but the pressure came from rebelling MPs.
When Eluned Morgan's Welsh Government wrote a letter detailing the impact the welfare cuts will have on Wales, only five MPs signed it. So it's no surprise she faced questions what her role as Welsh Labour leader means in terms of the 27-strong bloc of MPs who represent Wales.
Eluned Morgan says the next election is a "moment of reckoning". She isn't wrong.
When we asked her if this focus on Nigel Farage risked glamorising the party too much sway in Wales she was clear, "there is nothing glamorous about Reform".
The problem she has is convincing people there is something glamorous about Welsh Labour.
