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John Ivison: Carney will have to cut the uncuttable — if he has the guts
John Ivison: Carney will have to cut the uncuttable — if he has the guts

Calgary Herald

time16-07-2025

  • Business
  • Calgary Herald

John Ivison: Carney will have to cut the uncuttable — if he has the guts

Article content 'I see storm clouds ahead on the Indigenous front,' said Michael Wernick, the Jarislowsky Chair in public sector management at the University of Ottawa, and a former clerk of the Privy Council. Article content Spending down political capital with Indigenous groups and environmentalists might seem unlikely, but the government is already doing that with C-5, the recently passed major projects bill. Prime Minister Mark Carney is meeting First Nations leaders at a summit on Thursday and he will likely be lobbied heavily to move many of those grants and contributions from the 'cuttable' column into the 'uncuttable' one. Article content In a Policy Options article Wernick wrote in 2021, and reposted this week, he said governments serious about program reviews have to 'go where the money is'; accept that any changes will be fiercely contested; and ask fundamental questions about whether certain activities should be funded at all. Article content Article content Wernick said in an interview with National Post this week that Carney's efforts at spending restraint will not be a 'one and done' exercise, but will more likely resemble then finance minister Paul Martin's multi-year efforts in the 1995 and 1996 budgets that brought runaway deficits under control. Article content François-Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, indicated just such an approach in his letter to ministers that called on them to find savings of 7.5 per cent in the current year, 10 per cent next and 15 per cent in 2028–29. Article content This goes far beyond the productivity efficiencies that were included in the Liberal election platform. Article content But the need for more ambitious savings is apparent. Article content Recent projections by the C.D. Howe Institute and by economist Trevor Tombe suggest the commitment to increase military spending to five per cent of GDP is likely to push deficits and debt to levels not seen outside the pandemic. Tombe's model sees annual deficits of over $150 billion by 2035. Article content Article content Wernick said the uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the U.S. means that fiscal forecasts are inherently unreliable. But he concedes 'the arithmetic is relentless' and has even proposed a specific defence and security tax that would see the GST increased by two points and the funds allocated directly to military spending. Article content The public is onside with more expenditure on defence. A recent Abacus Data poll suggested two-thirds of Canadians back the Carney government's announcements of more military spending. Article content But consumption-tax hikes in the current political climate are likely to prove as popular as taking a hatchet to Old Age Security payments. Article content Carney risks becoming the man who fell to earth if these cuts are miscalculated. Article content A similar sense of crisis gave Martin leeway he might not have had in less straitened circumstances. Article content Over the course of three years, he reduced government spending by 19 per cent and reduced the federal headcount by 50,000 people. The budget was balanced within three years, the government's popularity rarely dipped below 50 per cent and the Liberals won the 1997 election. Article content The public accepted the need for action and sensed the Liberals would enjoy cutting spending far less than the opposition Reform party would. Article content The same logic applies for Carney. Article content But in the mid-1990s, the government of prime minister Jean Chrétien was able to demonstrate progress each year in the form of reduced deficits. Article content It is less clear how Carney will be able to claim victory. He has said the answer is faster growth and a balanced operating budget within three years. Article content Article content Yet, growth will be hard to achieve if trade with the United States falls (it has dropped for four consecutive months this year), while GDP growth will result in increases to defence spending and fiscal transfers, which are linked to the size of the economy. Article content In addition, the definition of what constitutes 'operating,' as opposed to 'capital' spending (which Carney has tried to distinguish) is likely to muddy the picture. Article content Voters likely don't need to see balanced budgets, if the Carney government can demonstrate it is making progress on its other priorities, such as using the public balance sheet to bring in investment for major projects, and, crucially, is able to convey that the public finances are under control. Article content One way to do that would be to shrink the public service. Article content A new report from the Parliamentary Budget Office shows that the federal public service increased by 30 per cent between 2015–16 and the last fiscal year. It has topped out at 445,000 full-time equivalent positions, with a slight reduction expected over the next few years due to attrition. Article content Article content Carney could chop a similar number that Martin did and still be left with a federal bureaucracy bigger than it was before the pandemic. Article content The problem for the government is not that bending the curve on program spending will lead to a rusting, hollowed-out public sector. Program spending reached 16 per cent of GDP in the last fiscal year, compared to 13 per cent in 2014–15 ($480 billion versus $329 billion in 2025 dollars).

John Ivison: Carney will have to cut the uncuttable — if he has the guts
John Ivison: Carney will have to cut the uncuttable — if he has the guts

National Post

time16-07-2025

  • Business
  • National Post

John Ivison: Carney will have to cut the uncuttable — if he has the guts

Article content In a Policy Options article Wernick wrote in 2021, and reposted this week, he said governments serious about program reviews have to 'go where the money is'; accept that any changes will be fiercely contested; and ask fundamental questions about whether certain activities should be funded at all. Article content Wernick said in an interview with National Post this week that Carney's efforts at spending restraint will not be a 'one and done' exercise, but will more likely resemble then finance minister Paul Martin's multi-year efforts in the 1995 and 1996 budgets that brought runaway deficits under control. Article content François-Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, indicated just such an approach in his letter to ministers that called on them to find savings of 7.5 per cent in the current year, 10 per cent next and 15 per cent in 2028–29. Article content This goes far beyond the productivity efficiencies that were included in the Liberal election platform. Article content But the need for more ambitious savings is apparent. Article content Article content Recent projections by the C.D. Howe Institute and by economist Trevor Tombe suggest the commitment to increase military spending to five per cent of GDP is likely to push deficits and debt to levels not seen outside the pandemic. Tombe's model sees annual deficits of over $150 billion by 2035. Article content Wernick said the uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the U.S. means that fiscal forecasts are inherently unreliable. But he concedes 'the arithmetic is relentless' and has even proposed a specific defence and security tax that would see the GST increased by two points and the funds allocated directly to military spending. Article content The public is onside with more expenditure on defence. A recent Abacus Data poll suggested two-thirds of Canadians back the Carney government's announcements of more military spending. Article content But consumption-tax hikes in the current political climate are likely to prove as popular as taking a hatchet to Old Age Security payments. Article content Carney risks becoming the man who fell to earth if these cuts are miscalculated. Article content The prime minister does have a mandate to act, particularly if President Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats. Article content A similar sense of crisis gave Martin leeway he might not have had in less straitened circumstances. Article content Over the course of three years, he reduced government spending by 19 per cent and reduced the federal headcount by 50,000 people. The budget was balanced within three years, the government's popularity rarely dipped below 50 per cent and the Liberals won the 1997 election. Article content The public accepted the need for action and sensed the Liberals would enjoy cutting spending far less than the opposition Reform party would. Article content The same logic applies for Carney. Article content But in the mid-1990s, the government of prime minister Jean Chrétien was able to demonstrate progress each year in the form of reduced deficits. Article content It is less clear how Carney will be able to claim victory. He has said the answer is faster growth and a balanced operating budget within three years. Article content Yet, growth will be hard to achieve if trade with the United States falls (it has dropped for four consecutive months this year), while GDP growth will result in increases to defence spending and fiscal transfers, which are linked to the size of the economy. Article content In addition, the definition of what constitutes 'operating,' as opposed to 'capital' spending (which Carney has tried to distinguish) is likely to muddy the picture. Article content Voters likely don't need to see balanced budgets, if the Carney government can demonstrate it is making progress on its other priorities, such as using the public balance sheet to bring in investment for major projects, and, crucially, is able to convey that the public finances are under control. Article content One way to do that would be to shrink the public service. Article content A new report from the Parliamentary Budget Office shows that the federal public service increased by 30 per cent between 2015–16 and the last fiscal year. It has topped out at 445,000 full-time equivalent positions, with a slight reduction expected over the next few years due to attrition. Article content Article content Carney could chop a similar number that Martin did and still be left with a federal bureaucracy bigger than it was before the pandemic. Article content The problem for the government is not that bending the curve on program spending will lead to a rusting, hollowed-out public sector. Program spending reached 16 per cent of GDP in the last fiscal year, compared to 13 per cent in 2014–15 ($480 billion versus $329 billion in 2025 dollars). Article content

Richard Wernick, Pulitzer Prize-winning composer and Penn music professor emeritus, has died at 91
Richard Wernick, Pulitzer Prize-winning composer and Penn music professor emeritus, has died at 91

American Military News

time29-04-2025

  • Entertainment
  • American Military News

Richard Wernick, Pulitzer Prize-winning composer and Penn music professor emeritus, has died at 91

Richard Wernick, 91, of Haverford, Pulitzer Prize-winning composer, acclaimed conductor, retired Irving Fine Professor of Music at the University of Pennsylvania, and former consultant to conductor Ricardo Muti and the Philadelphia Orchestra, died Friday of age-associated decline at his home. Professor Wernick was prolific and celebrated as a composer. He wrote hundreds of scores over six decades and appeared on more than a dozen records, and his Visions of Terror and Wonder for a mezzo-soprano and orchestra won the 1977 Pulitzer Prize for music. In 1991, his String Quartet No. 4 made him the first two-time winner of the Kennedy Center's Friedheim Award for new American music. 'Wernick's orchestral music has power and brilliance, an emphasis on register, space, and scale,' Lesley Valdes, former Inquirer classical music critic, said in 1990. His Violin Concerto tied for first place in the 1986 Friedheim Award competition, and former Inquirer music critic Daniel Webster described it as 'a tightly organized piece in which thematic ideas, harmonic gestures, and subtly organized instrumental colors provide a panorama against which the virtuoso violin part grows, takes a theatrical stance, and then plunges toward a heroic conclusion.' A judge at that competition told Webster: 'Wernick's piece demands to be heard. That is a measure of great music.' His Piano Concerto finished second in the Friedheim competition in 1992. Professor Wernick was named the 2006 Composer of the Year by the Classical Recording Foundation, and he earned grants, fellowships, and other awards from the Delaware Symphony Orchestra, and the Ford, Guggenheim, Rockefeller, and Naumburg Foundations. For him, personal prestige came second to appreciating the music. 'This should be a celebration, not a competition,' he told Webster after his 1991 Friedheim award. 'Our society puts so little value on the arts that this prize should recognize the art more than the person. Music wins the prize in this event.' He was composer in residence for the Philadelphia Orchestra for several years in the 1980s and earned high-profile commissions from the Philadelphia Chamber Music Society, National Symphony Orchestra, American Composers Orchestra, National Endowment for the Arts, and other groups. His work has been performed at the Academy of Music, Curtis Institute, Carnegie Hall in New York, the Ravenna Festival in Italy, Aspen Music Festival in Colorado, and elsewhere around the world. He told The Inquirer in the 1980s and '90s that his work was 'rhythmically challenging' and that he often used inspirational quotes, religious text, and personal experience to 'shape the material.' He poured his own emotions into his work, his son Adam said, because music was his deepest form of expression. 'I look back over my music, and I can see the differences as time goes on,' Professor Wernick said in 1991. 'But I see a similarity within all my music. This evolution is an important process.' He was a consultant on contemporary American music to the Philadelphia Orchestra from 1983 to '89 and then special adviser to Muti until 1993. He was affable with a hearty laugh and spoke comfortably at conferences, seminars, workshops, and public appearances before performances. 'Muti said he found Wernick a musician he could respect and trust,' Webster said in 1991. He studied with Leonard Bernstein at the Tanglewood Music Center in Massachusetts in the 1950s and went on to conduct the Philadelphia Orchestra, his own Penn Contemporary Players, and other ensembles. He was recruited from the University of Chicago to Penn in 1968 by fellow composer George Crumb and was the Irving Fine Professor of Music, music department chairman, Magnin Professor of Humanities, and a mentor to student composers until his retirement in 1996. He was especially active with young composers at what is now the Jerusalem Academy of Music and Dance in Israel. 'He was hands-on and tough, and loved when his composing students became colleagues,' his son said. Earlier, he was music director of the Royal Winnipeg Ballet and then music professor at the State University of New York in Buffalo and the University of Chicago. He also studied at Mills College in California and spent much of the 1950s and early '60s writing music for theater, film, TV, and dance productions. 'I was originally headed for electrical engineering,' he told Bruce Duffie of Chicago's WNIB radio in a 1993 interview on 'I'm glad I'm not an electrical engineer. I'm very glad I stuck it out. It's been a wonderfully exciting and rewarding existence.' Richard Frank Wernick was born Jan. 16, 1934, in Newton, Mass., about 10 miles west of Boston. He played piano and clarinet as a boy, and started composing music as a teenager. He studied with several maestros in high school and college, and earned a bachelor's degree in music at nearby Brandeis University. He met bassoon student Beatrice Messina at Tanglewood, and they married in 1956, and had sons Lew, Adam, and Peter. Peter died in 1986. Wernick was a lifelong Boston Red Sox baseball fan. Later, he adopted the Phillies as his second-favorite team. He was an avid reader, and his home was full of history books and biographies. He and his wife lived for nearly 40 years in Media before moving to the Quadrangle in Haverford in 2007. They also built a home in Vermont and went there often to garden, hike, consume ice cream and root beer, work quietly, and take in the music at local festivals. 'He was such a dynamic, forceful, humorous, vibrant, impossible human being,' his son Adam said. His son Lew said: 'He was a man of very high standards and great integrity in both his professional and personal life.' In addition to his wife and sons, Wernick is survived by five granddaughters, a great-granddaughter, and other relatives. A private service and celebration of his life are to be held later. Donations in his name may be made to Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Box 781352, Philadelphia, Pa. 19178. ___ © 2025 The Philadelphia Inquirer, LLC. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

How a caretaker government functions in the middle of a trade war
How a caretaker government functions in the middle of a trade war

CBC

time27-03-2025

  • Politics
  • CBC

How a caretaker government functions in the middle of a trade war

Social Sharing If there's one thing the former head of Canada's public service wants Canadians to know right now, it's that their country still has a government. "We always have a government. Whether during prorogation, during dissolution, there's always a functional government with its powers and its duties and obligations," Michael Wernick said. Wernick is the former clerk of the Privy Council — a position that includes heading up the public service, acting as the prime minister's deputy as well as serving as secretary to the federal cabinet. When Parliament is dissolved, the government itself is not shut down. Wernick says it can still respond to the economic chaos being unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump. "What changes during the election period is this convention of [the government] using its powers with restraint. But there is a government there, it has a broad tool kit and there are people going to work every day supporting the federal government both federally and provincially," he said. The convention Wernick mentioned is a reference to the "caretaker convention period," that begins when Parliament has been dissolved and only ends when a new government is sworn in or an incumbent government is re-elected. In the Westminster parliamentary system used in Canada, the legitimacy of an elected government hinges on its ability to command the confidence of the House of Commons. During an election period, the House is shut and so the prime minister cannot seek approval from the elected chamber. Because of that, the prime minister and cabinet are directed by the convention to act with restraint, which means they shouldn't introduce big, new things or make changes that would be onerous for the next government to roll back. Governing with 'restraint' This does not mean that the government is prevented from making decisions. Prime Minister Mark Carney still has the responsibility of ensuring the routine operation of the government continues and must also be able to respond to emergencies such as natural disasters, wars or economic crises. Wernick says that deciding what must be done — and what should not be done — comes down to the judgment of the prime minister guided by tradition, such as ensuring government actions demonstrate respect for the democratic will of Canadians. "There's no rule book to go to that would tell you exactly where that threshold is," Wernick said. When it comes to responding to tariffs being imposed on Canada by the Trump administration, the prime minister and his cabinet have the power and authority they need to respond with retaliatory tariffs or help for workers. Watch l Michael Wernick on the caretaker convention: Who can respond to Trump during a federal election? 7 days ago Duration 9:00 Sources tell CBC News that Prime Minister Mark Carney will be visiting the Governor General on Sunday to request that she dissolve Parliament and call an election. This means Canada will automatically enter a caretaker period just as the country is bracing for more tariffs from the United States. Former clerk of the Privy Council, Michael Wernick, who also serves as the Jarislowsky Chair in Public Sector Management at the University of Ottawa, tells Power & Politics how a caretaker government can function in the middle of a trade war. "The only thing really not available to the government would be to go to Parliament and pass a new law," Wernick told CBC's Power & Politics host David Cochrane last week. That means ministers can carry on with their official duties but they should "not act independently on an initiative that requires cabinet or Treasury Board approval," according to the caretaker guidelines. Government departments are also not supposed to launch new regulatory initiatives, and when possible should defer the implementation of initiatives during an election period because ministers may have limited capacity to respond, should issues arise. There are also some guidelines for how government advertising and communicating takes place. The central principle is that all communication should be non-partisan, and be limited to messages about public health, safety or urgent business. Public opinion research is supposed to be shelved during the election period and no government contracts should be issued for speechwriting either. While cabinet ministers retain their powers and responsibilities, parliamentary secretaries' appointments end as soon as Parliament is dissolved. "In the grand scheme of things, five weeks is not a long period to be managing this," Wernick said.

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