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Miami Herald
07-07-2025
- Climate
- Miami Herald
In Texas, Florida and across the globe, warmer climate makes flooding ‘more unprecedented'
As the Texas flooding death toll reached 95 on Monday — at least 27 of them children — and Tropical Storm Chantal prompted dozens of water rescues in North Carolina, some Floridians were reminded of the disastrous 'rain bomb' in 2023 that hit faster and harder than any hurricane in living memory. Though no one died from the 2 feet of rain that deluged Fort Lauderdale in a single day in April two years ago, the relentless rain forced hundreds to flee to Red Cross shelters, covered airport runways, filled the tunnel that runs under the New River and turned downtown streets into raging rivers. And, despite the sheer speed with which these floods took people by surprise, they have another thing in common: Climate change made them even more catastrophic. While the tropical system stuck over Texas' Hill Country — also known as 'Flash Flood Alley' — was expected to cause flooding, 'we also know that climate change is adding just a little bit of extra rain,' Shel Winkley, who worked as a broadcast meteorologist for a CBS-affiliate in Texas, told the Miami Herald. Overall, the climate is now 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than before humans started burning fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases that trap heat within the atmosphere. The warmer the atmosphere, the more moisture it can hold, and, consequently, release. Heavier rainfalls likely made the Texas flooding 'even more unprecedented,' said Winkley, who taught at Texas A&M University. 'The question is, would it have come down as fast, and would the river have risen as quickly as it did, without that climate change influence?' Using a rapid analysis to show how the floods are linked to climate change, scientists in Europe determined that warmer weather fueled the Texas disaster as overall weather conditions in that specific region had gotten wetter compared to the past. The severity of the event, they said, can't be explained by naturally occurring changes to the climate and weather. Research by Climate Central, a nonprofit science and communications group, also found that, over the past 50 years, rainfall has become heavier in cities like San Antonio, some 60 miles south of the worst flooding, with rainfalls now increased by 6 percent. In Miami, Climate Central's analysis, which is based on NOAA data, found that the hourly rainfall intensity increased by 12 percent. Both Florida and Texas are adversely affected because they lie on the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently between 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average for the beginning of July, conditions that are 10 to 30 times more likely because of climate change. This extra heat has given more water molecules the energy they need to 'escape' from the surface and evaporate into the atmosphere, where they're supplying additional moisture, which makes rainfall more intense. 'Climate change loads the dice toward more frequent and more intense floods,' Davide Farranda, an expert on extreme weather events at the French National Center for Scientific Research, said in a statement, adding that the Texas flood 'shows the deadly cost of underestimating this shift.' 'We need to rethink early warning systems, land-use planning, and emergency preparedness. And above all, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit future risks,' he said. While cutting greenhouse gas emissions is the only proven solution that can stop things from getting even worse, our atmosphere and oceans react slowly to the CO2 we're emitting. The impact of the fossil fuels burnt today will be felt in decades to come. That makes adaptation a necessity, especially in places like South Florida, where a lot of infrastructure dates back to the 1950s. 'These extreme events are likely to become more frequent,' said Ben Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami, referring to the 2023 rain bomb, which overwhelmed Fort Lauderdale with such a sudden deluge that schools had to shut down for two days. A 1-in-500-year flood, he said, referring to a flood that, statistically speaking, is so devastating it occurs once every 500 years, 'that will maybe be a 1-in-a-100-year flood, or a 1-in-20-year flood,' Kirtman said. Cities, he said, need to know what to plan for, so infrastructure can be hardened, and at least some catastrophes can be avoided. Figuring out not just how much rainfall we can expect, but also the frequency and duration of rainfall is exactly what Kirtman and colleagues from across Florida, including the US Geological Service, are trying to figure out. Six inches of rainfall might not be a lot for a city like Miami, but it wouldn't be able to handle six inches of rain over three, four or five days. Within a year, he and his colleagues hope to have some preliminary data. Even with that data, keeping people and properties safe from ever heavier flooding can simply prove too costly. Miami, for example, would have had to pay $5.1 billion to upgrade its infrastructure for a 1-in-10-year storm, an extra $1.3 billion compared to adapting for a 1-in-5-year storm. The city tried to find a middle ground, upgrading some projects to higher and others to lower levels. Though Floridians are used to storms, heavy rain and flooding, being surrounded by a warmer Gulf on all sides and the fact that hurricanes have already become more intense doesn't bode well, Winkley said. And while Florida was less susceptible to river flooding due to its lack of hills, the Texas flood, he said, was 'a warning for everybody.' This climate report is funded by Florida International University, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation and the David and Christina Martin Family Foundation in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners. The Miami Herald retains editorial control of all content.
Boston Globe
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
How weather conditions set the stage for deadly Texas flash floods
Advertisement 'In a warming climate we know that the atmosphere has more moisture to give, to hold on to and then to release. But also the thing that we know about climate change is that our rain events are not as uniform as what they used to be,' said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. 'So, you'll get these big rain events happening in localized areas, tapping into the historic level of moisture in the atmosphere.' Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up In recent weeks, flash flooding driven by bursts of heavy rain turned deadly elsewhere in Texas and in West Virginia. In San Antonio in June, more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain fell over a span of hours, prompting dozens of rescues from the fast-rising floodwaters and killing at least 13. And in West Virginia that month, at least nine people died when as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain fell within 40 minutes and caused flash flooding in the Wheeling area. Advertisement Staggering rain runs off hard ground Robert Henson, a meteorologist and writer with Yale Climate Connections, said this latest Texas rain storm was roughly a once-in-a-generation event. It fell in the Texas Hill Country where water quickly shoots down rugged hills into narrow river basins that swell quickly. 'As is often the case with the worst disasters, many things came together in a terrible way.' Henson said. Plus, the area had been in a drought, so the water ran down the dry, hard land fast. That made it more dangerous for children attending camp. 'A sudden surge of rain like that is going to have a harder time getting absorbed,' said Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. 'It just runs right off of it. It's like concrete.' The sheer amount of rain was overwhelming. Former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist, calculated Saturday morning that the storm had dropped 120 billion gallons of water on Kerr County, which received the brunt of the storm. A storm with plenty of fuel Moisture fueled the storm from many directions. Tropical Storm Barry formed briefly last weekend, moving over Mexico and then its remnants continued up into Texas. But the jet stream, a current of air that moves weather patterns, wasn't there to push that moisture away. 'Normally weather systems and the remnants of tropical systems will get picked up by the jet stream, and that's just not over Texas currently,' said Winkley, the Climate Central meteorologist. 'It's essentially a weather system without a road to get away from the Lone Star State.' Advertisement The warm water of the Gulf fueled the moist atmosphere. Even more moisture came from areas over the Pacific Ocean to the west. The combination gave the storm plenty of fuel once it got started. Winkley said in the area that flooded, climate change might mean that rain storms are less common, but when they do occur they can be more severe. Generally a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, creating conditions for storms to drop more rain. 'With climate change we have a warming atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere holds a lot more moisture, and we are seeing obviously much more total atmospheric moisture across the globe in recent years than we normally have,' said Anderson, the AccuWeather meteorologist.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Summers heating up locally and across the country
SPRINGFIELD, Mass. (WWLP) – It was a gray and cool day on Wednesday, but Memorial Day weekend is almost here, which means summer is just around the corner. Even though it may not feel like it right now, Memorial Day signifies the unofficial start of summer. It's the end of May, and temperatures are running around ten to 20 degrees below normal. We're also not seeing much in the way of sunshine either. Drought conditions improve in western Massachusetts due to recent rainfall Even though it's cool now, temperatures will be warming up, especially as we head into June and it starts to feel more like summer. According to Climate Central, summers are getting warmer across the country. 'Since 1970, summer temperatures have risen 97% in over 240 U.S. cities by an average of 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit,' said Climate Central Meteorologist Shel Winkley. From 1970 to 2024, summers warmed by two degrees in the Springfield area. We're also seeing an increase in the number of hot summer days. In Springfield, we are currently expecting 11 days with above normal temperatures during the summer. Hotter summers can lead to a number of health risks. 'And in this warming climate, the risk of heat-related illness, poor air quality, and deadly heat waves are growing,' Winkley said. 'Not only just for the U.S., but for billions across the globe.' In the last nearly 55 years, the southern and western parts of the country have seen the highest increase in summer temperatures. June 1 is the meteorological start of summer, and the official start of summer is on Friday, June 20. WWLP-22News, an NBC affiliate, began broadcasting in March 1953 to provide local news, network, syndicated, and local programming to western Massachusetts. Watch the 22News Digital Edition weekdays at 4 p.m. on Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Boston Globe
13-05-2025
- Health
- Boston Globe
Allergy season is starting 20 days earlier. That means the misery starts sooner.
My doctors cycled through treatments: first antibiotics, then decongestants, and finally allergy medications. Either I caught the most persistent cold imaginable or, somewhere along the way, spring allergies took over. 'There's a real synergy between colds and allergies, especially if someone gets sick during tree pollen season. The result is often a longer, more intense period of symptoms,' said Dr. Frederic Little, a pulmonologist and allergist at Boston Medical Center. Whether it was just allergies or a combination, I felt miserable. Advertisement Allergies have been starting weeks before the blooms begin here in New England. You might even start coughing and sneezing before the snow melts for the season. Advertisement 'What's been validated The USA National Phenology Network's The spring leaf index for the United States this year. US NPN Interestingly, Little explained, the pollen that descends upon New England starting as early as February often 'isn't even from here — it's from trees in the Southeast.' The pollen released from trees down South 'can travel up to 30,000 feet and ride the jet stream north, arriving before our local species even bloom,' he said. Then, as high pressure and sinking air move in, those pollen particles find their way back down to the surface. According to meteorologist Shel Winkley, the growing season has increased significantly across the Carolinas, which in turn kicks off pollen season even earlier. 'Raleigh's growing season has increased by 38 days. Charlotte, Asheville, Greenville, all are seeing a month or more of extra plant growth time per year,' said Winkley. A longer season in the Carolinas translates into an earlier season here in New England. Some experts believe there is another piece to the equation that's worsening your symptoms: Advertisement '(Carbon dioxide) is plant food. It doesn't just warm the planet — it supercharges plants to grow more and produce more pollen, making allergy seasons not only longer but more intense,' Winkley said. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have now surpassed 425 parts per million, which is the highest concentration in human history and a clear marker of accelerating climate change. New England's triggering pollens Trees, grass, and weeds are prolific producers of pollen, generating up to 1 billion pollen grains, according to the Despite the longer allergy season, the foundation ranked Boston, Worcester, and Providence as 'better than average' places to live with seasonal allergies, according to its Doctors agree that New England's pollen levels are about the same as last year, 'but if somebody is super allergic to certain deciduous tree pollens, they can feel a lot worse than the average individual. And with the growing season getting longer, even an average year can still feel pretty miserable for a lot of people,' Little said. Tree pollens are the biggest irritants across the region this month. Boston Globe Common tree pollen triggers in the spring include juniper, alder, oak, cottonwood, cedar, hickory, birch, and willow, among others. Weeds are mainly triggers from late August into early fall. According to the asthma foundation, more than 90 million people in the US suffer from allergies. Advertisement Dr. Karen Hsu Blatman, Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center's section chief of allergy and clinical immunology, said taking proactive treatment can help patients find relief when allergies strike. 'We recommend people start nasal steroid sprays a month ahead of the season — even before symptoms start. If you wait, it's harder to get symptoms under control," she said.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Climate change made April flooding worse, study says
The historic rain and flooding in parts of Arkansas, Kentucky and other states caused by intense April thunderstorms was likelier and also more intense because of climate change. That's according to the World Weather Attribution project, a group of scientists who analyze major weather events for the effects of climate change. From April 3 to April 6, torrential rain pounded the Southeast, causing flooding that put more than 70 million people under flood alerts, killed at least 15, swept away cars and derailed a train. Researchers used climate models and historical data to analyze the storm system in eight states it tracked and found that it was about 9% more intense because of global warming and 40% likelier today than in a climate without global warming. 'We conclude that present warming of 1.3 degrees did amplify the extreme rainfall leading to flooding in this region,' said Ben Clarke, a researcher at Imperial College London, who helped author the report. 'We know that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.' The reference to 1.3 degrees is how much the world has warmed, in Celsius, since humanity began spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as a result of the Industrial Revolution. It's equivalent to about 2.3 degrees F. Clarke said the group's probability estimates are conservative. The researchers noted that a somewhat unusual meteorological setup contributed to the extreme rain. Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with the nonprofit news organization Climate Central who contributed to the report, said the low pressure weather system producing the storms hit a ridge of high pressure and then stalled, which sent thunderstorms parading one after another over the same stretches of the Southeast and the Midwest. 'That front was the road for these storms to travel on and also the trigger mechanism ... that allowed these thunderstorms to essentially pile up on already saturated soil,' Winkley said. 'This is a very interesting event where weather and climate change collided together.' Winkley said the National Weather Service issued the third-most severe weather warnings on record on April 2. 'By the end of that day, the National Weather Service had issued, across their different offices, 728 different severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings combined,' Winkley said, adding that from April 3 to April 6, many locations got 6 to 12 inches of rain, with extremes upward of 16 inches. After they analyzed the historic April rainfall, the researchers found that a storm system similar in scope and scale could be expected once every 100 years in today's warmer climate. Kentucky State Climatologist Jerald Brotzge, a professor at Western Kentucky University, who wasn't involved in the research, said he's often skeptical of such studies, which attribute large flooding events to climate change but don't account for unique meteorological setups. But this research appeared solid, he said. 'It looks like they've done a pretty good job with it,' Brotzge said. 'In this case, it was a stalled boundary, and the thunderstorms kept forming over the same area. They recognize that.' Brotzge said his state, Kentucky, has warmed by about a degree Celsius (1.8 degrees F) over the past 130 years of recorded weather. The state has experienced heavier rainfall over time. 'Our annual rainfall has increased about 10%,' Brotzge said. 'Our top 10 wettest years — five of those have occurred since 2011. 2011 remains our wettest year, and 2018 remains our second-wettest year. And this year, our January through April is our wettest start to the year.' World Weather Attribution is a consortium of scientists who publish quickly produced analyses of climate change's role in extreme events. Its methods are peer-reviewed, but specific analyses aren't immediately reviewed. The group's previous work on heat, wildfire and hurricane disasters has held up to outside academic scrutiny. This article was originally published on
