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Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The Stock Market Soared in May and June. History Says the S&P 500 Will Do This in July.
The S&P 500 has returned an average of 3.4% in the month of July during the last decade, second only to its average return of 4.2% in November. The S&P 500 returned over 20% in the two-month period that ended June 9, and that type of momentum has preceded substantial upside in the past. Tariffs imposed by President Trump are a substantial source of downside risk to the stock market because they are likely to raise prices and slow economic growth. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) crashed when President Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April, but the benchmark index has since staged a historic comeback. It advanced 6.2% in May to clinch its best performance during the month since 1990, and it climbed another 4.6% in June. Can the S&P 500 carry that momentum into July? The S&P 500 is commonly regarded as the best barometer for the entire U.S. stock market due to its scope and diversity. The index includes 500 large U.S. companies that represent 80% of domestic equities by market value. The S&P 500 has historically performed very well in July. In fact, it has been the second-best month for the U.S. stock market in recent years. Here is the S&P 500's average return by month during the last decade: Month Average S&P 500 Return January 1.4% February (0.5%) March 0.2% April 1.1% May 1.5% June 1.8% July 3.4% August 0.1% September (2%) October 1.3% November 4.2% December (0.1%) Data source: YCharts. Table by author. As shown, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 3.4% in July over the last decade, second only to its average return of 4.2% in November. Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but another stock market signal portends continued gains in the remaining months of 2025. The S&P 500 advanced 20.5% during the two-month period that ended on June 9. The index has only achieved a two-month return above 20% six times since its creation in 1957, and such events have always preceded more upward momentum. Specifically, after a two-month return above 20%, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 16% over the next six months and 31% over the next year, according to Carson Investment Research. The S&P 500 closed at 6,006 on June 9, which means: The index will advance 16% to 6,967 by Dec. 9, 2025, if its performance matches the historical average. That implies 12.5% upside from its current level of 6,188. The index will advance 31% to 7,868 by June 9, 2026, if its performance matches the historical average. That implies 27.1% upside from its current level of 6,188. Importantly, how the stock market actually performs in the remaining months of 2025 (and beyond) depends largely on earnings results, which are impacted by macroeconomic factors like inflation and gross domestic product (GDP). In that context, tariffs imposed by President Trump are a substantial source of downside risk for the stock market. Most economists expect tariffs to increase prices and stunt economic growth, which would drag on consumer spending and business investments. The pre-tariff consensus from the Federal Reserve said inflation would drop to 2.5% by the fourth quarter of 2025, but post-tariff estimate puts inflation at 3% in the fourth quarter. The pre-tariff consensus from the International Monetary Fund said U.S. GDP would grow 2.7% in 2025, but the post-tariff estimate puts U.S. GDP growth at just 1.8% this year. Consequently, many Wall Street analysts have cut earnings estimates. S&P 500 companies in aggregate are expected to report 8.5% earnings growth in 2025, but analysts had forecast 14% earnings growth before the Trump administration started implementing tariffs earlier this year, according to LSEG. All this means July has typically been a strong month for the U.S. stock market, and history says the S&P 500 could soar in the remaining months of 2025, but tariffs are an unknown variable that could lead to a very different outcome. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $713,547!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $966,931!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,062% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 177% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025 Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The Stock Market Soared in May and June. History Says the S&P 500 Will Do This in July. was originally published by The Motley Fool
USA Today
4 days ago
- Business
- USA Today
Real estate vs. stocks: Which investment builds more wealth over time?
Putting money into real estate and stocks are two popular ways to grow your wealth. Home values have risen significantly, especially with demand being hot in the past few years. A red-hot housing market has inflated values across the globe. And while things have cooled of late, prices are still much higher than they were just a few years ago. But which of these investment options is better for the long haul: real estate or stocks? Here's what the data says. The stock market has been the winner, and it's not even close According to data going back to the start of 1995, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks housing prices, has risen by more than 310%. By comparison, the S&P 500 index has increased by more than 1,200%. And when you include reinvested dividends, the total returns are more than 2,200%. S&P 500 vs the housing market data by YCharts Different housing markets, will, of course, experience different returns. But when taking a broad look at the two investments, it's evident that the stock market as a whole is generally the better long-term investment than real estate. Profits on real estate can look incredible, and that's because to buy a home you're investing hundreds of thousands of dollars into it. In some markets, you might not be able to even buy a home for less than $1 million. With so much invested into an asset, the profits can be significant, whereas with stocks, investments are typically smaller. But if, for example, you invested $500,000 into the S&P 500 and it simply rose at its long-run average of 10% for five years, then you'd be sitting on a profit of more than $300,000. If you invested $1 million, then the profit would be more than $600,000. Now these kinds of profits start to become more eye-catching, and that's because the original investment is so significant. Why investing in stocks can make more sense than investing in real estate The large numbers from real estate profits can make it seem as though investing in housing can yield better returns. But when you adjust for the size of the investment and you strictly look at the percentage return, the story looks much different, and it makes it more evident that investing in stocks may be the better option. But there are also other factors that tip the scale in favor of stocks, including liquidity. With stocks, it can be easy to get in and get out of an investment while incurring minimal costs. Investing in real estate, however, can be both time-consuming and costly. Plus, you are tying up money into a single asset whereas with stocks you can diversify across multiple companies or through 500 of the leading stocks as with the S&P 500 index. Investing in the stock market has yielded better returns over the years and it's a safer long-term strategy. Even if you're not sure what to invest in, tracking the S&P 500 through an exchange-traded fund can be an easy way to invest in the stock market while taking on minimal risk. David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY. Where to invest $1,000 right now Offer from the Motley Fool: When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is 831%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 175% for the S&P 500. They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now, available when you joinStock Advisor. See the stocks »
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
XRP Has Crushed Bitcoin Since Donald Trump's Election Win. Is the World's Largest Cryptocurrency About to Stage an Epic Comeback This Year?
XRP has rallied more than 330% since Donald Trump's victory. XRP has benefited from the SEC dropping its lawsuit against Ripple, the company behind XRP. Bitcoin can still perform well this year, but a lot of things would need to happen for it to mount a comeback on XRP. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Many cryptocurrencies have benefited from Donald Trump's presidential election win in November, due to the administration's pro-crypto policies. But few have benefited more than the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), which is up 54% since last November's election, and the world's fourth-largest cryptocurrency XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), which is up a staggering 330%. Although Bitcoin has performed well, I find it unlikely that it will be able to stage an epic run and overtake XRP this year, mainly because Bitcoin has reached critical mass, making it the less volatile of the two. This isn't all bad for Bitcoin, however, and actually positions the cryptocurrency to keep generating strong gains over the long term. Since Bitcoin's creation, cryptocurrency has been operating with very little regulation. That made everything from Bitcoin to smaller meme tokens extremely volatile and risky. Bitcoin, however, is not the same cryptocurrency it once was. Many investors now consider Bitcoin a store of value because of its finite supply of 21 million tokens. This means the coin could have a scarcity dynamic and serve as a hedge against inflation. Despite recent inflation data trending lower, investors are still concerned about inflation reversing course due to tariffs. They are also worried about the U.S. government's fiscal situation, including a rising fiscal deficit and ballooning debt. This has provided a real use case for Bitcoin and led investors to plow money into the digital asset. Bitcoin now has a market cap of more than $2 trillion. Bitcoin Price data by YCharts Meanwhile, XRP has been on a crazy run after several years of underperformance. Trump's win ultimately led to the resignation of Gary Gensler, former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Under new leadership, the SEC began to drop or settle lawsuits against major crypto businessess, including Ripple, the company behind XRP. The SEC had sued Ripple, its co-founder Chris Larsen, and current Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse for allegedly selling XRP as an unregistered security. The case dragged on for more than four years, but the SEC recently announced it would drop the case. This led to a resurgence in XRP's price as investors made up for lost time and got excited about other catalysts like the expansion of Ripple's cross-border payments business and the potential launch of XRP spot exchange-traded funds. XRP can process lots of transactions per second, making it ideal for cross-border payments, and in theory, the expansion of Ripple's business could lead to more widespread use of XRP. Given that XRP is more volatile, it should benefit more than Bitcoin when the broader crypto sector rallies, making it unlikely that Bitcoin will stage a major comeback this year. However, for the long term, I still think Bitcoin is the more prudent pick. When Bitcoin declines, it will likely decline less than most other cryptocurrencies, including XRP. Furthermore, Bitcoin continues to be viewed as an investment haven like gold and has a better chance of being bought during times of geopolitical uncertainty and as U.S. fiscal concerns deepen. These issues don't appear to be going away, leading some experts, like BlackRock, to suggest that some exposure to Bitcoin is acceptabe in a diversified portfolio. There are coins besides XRP that can process lots of transactions per second, and it still remains to be seen whether Ripple's success can really translate into success for XRP. I still think the token has potential and is likely to outperform Bitcoin this year, but I view Bitcoin as the better, less risky option. Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $689,813!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $906,556!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 809% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 175% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 23, 2025 Bram Berkowitz has positions in Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. XRP Has Crushed Bitcoin Since Donald Trump's Election Win. Is the World's Largest Cryptocurrency About to Stage an Epic Comeback This Year? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Amplitude Stock Jumped 35% in May
Key Points Amplitude reported accelerating growth in its first quarter. The company is planning to launch its AI agents next week. 10 stocks we like better than Amplitude › Shares of Amplitude (NASDAQ: AMPL) moved higher last month after the product analytics cloud software company delivered a better-than-expected first-quarter earnings report, teased its upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) agent launch for June 10, and benefited from the broader recovery in the stock market as worries about a recession faded. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Amplitude's stock price increased 35% in May. As you can see from the chart below, the stock surged following the earnings report and continued to rise in response to macroeconomic tailwinds. AMPL data by YCharts. Amplitude builds momentum Amplitude stock jumped 19% on May 8 after the company released its earnings report, which showed another quarter of accelerating growth following an earlier slowdown. Revenue in the quarter rose 10% to $80 million, slightly ahead of estimates at $79.76 million. On the bottom, it reported break-even adjusted earnings per share, which beat estimates by a penny. However, other key metrics seemed to better showcase the company's underlying growth. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose 30% to $325.9 million, showing that customers are signing longer contracts, a reflection of greater confidence from its customers. It's also seeing higher attach rates as it introduces more new product features, which help drive the company's growth over the long term. After adding several new features, including Session Replay and Guides & Surveys, Amplitude can now offer everything customers want from its product analytics platform, preventing them from having to supplement it with point solutions. On May 12, the stock jumped, gaining 13% after the U.S. and China agreed to lower their tariff rates. While that news doesn't have direct implications for Amplitude, as a relatively young software company that is still unprofitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, Amplitude is sensitive to the overall economy, and lower tariff rates make a recession less likely. Image source: Getty Images. What's next for Amplitude Amplitude's AI agent launch next week could be a game-changer for the company, helping it further separate itself from the competition. For the full year, the company is targeting revenue of $329 million to $333 million, up 10.6% at the midpoint, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.05 to $0.10. After struggling in the post-pandemic era, Amplitude is seeing traction with its customer base and product suite. There's still a large addressable market for the company to tackle, and the AI agent launch could help it get there.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
5 must-know tips for financial advisors going virtual
Zoom calls and screen sharing may feel like the norm for many financial advisors these days, but the rise of virtual advising is still a relatively new development in the world of wealth management. Before the pandemic, just 13% of clients met with their advisors virtually, according to research from YCharts. By 2024, that figure increased by nearly threefold, with 38% of clients saying they meet with their advisors virtually. The COVID-19 pandemic may be the catalyst that ignited that trend, but advisors say the shift to virtual practice is here to stay. Even with the rapid growth of virtual advising over the last five years, the industry is still at an early "inflection point" in the journey toward digital practices, said Aaron Cirksena, founder and CEO of MDRN Capital in Annapolis, Maryland. READ MORE: In a virtual world, advisors need to curate their digital personas "We wanted to get ahead of it, because I saw [the change] back in 2023 when I made the full shift [to a virtual firm] and I said, 'I'm just doing away with office space,'" Cirksena said. "The whole reason was because … I asked my in-person clients who lived five minutes from my office if they wanted to come back in and meet with me in person, and 80% of them said, 'No, we'll just keep doing Zoom meetings. It's easy.'" That preference for virtual meetings is especially strong among wealthier clients. Asked about how they would prefer to meet with their advisor, 43% of clients with more than $500,000 under management said they prefer virtual meetings, according to YCharts research. "The wealthier people, the ones we typically deal with, they value their time over everything," Cirksena said. "They don't care where the best person is. They don't care about meeting or shaking hands with the best. They just want somebody that they view as being the best, most knowledgeable in any job that they're going to hire somebody for, and they want to make sure that they are getting to spend their time as efficiently as possible." Advisors say that getting started in a virtual firm can be relatively simple compared to a brick-and-mortar operation. But simply operating a digital firm is different from excelling in it. For advisors looking to kick their digital practice into the next gear, here are five things to know about operating a successful virtual firm. Serving a niche clientele can benefit most advisors, whether or not they're virtual. But when a virtual advisor finds themselves competing with other advisors from across the country, differentiating themselves through a niche specialization is vital. Still, advisors who have been successful in the virtual advising world say going hyper-specific isn't always necessary. "I kind of feel like I did a pseudo niche," said Autumn Knutson, founder of digital-native firm Styled Wealth. "I work with impact-driven individuals. And sometimes people say, 'Well, what is that?' A lot of times, people have an understanding of what that is. That understanding varies, I will admit, but most people have their own understanding of what that is. And if that resonates with someone, then we may be a very good psychographic fit." READ MORE: The rewards financial advisors find working with niche clients For virtual advisors like Knutson, working in a niche isn't just for marketing purposes, it's also a way to ensure her firm is attracting clients it wants to work with. "I want everyone … to find a good fit, but that fit is not always me," she said. "And so I've tried to niche and be very intentional for people to know who I am, what I'm going to provide, what the experience is like." Virtual advisors can often forgo traditional costs like commuting and office space, but one place they spare no expense is their tech stacks. "Tech is what I spend the most money on," Knutson said. "I care very much that it's well-fitting to the experience that I want, to the efficiencies I care about." READ MORE: Ask an advisor: What AI tools are financial advisors using right now? Tech is far from exclusive to virtual firms, but the capabilities the two kinds of firms need can necessitate different software, advisors say. CRM and custodian options that work well for a local firm may not translate well to a virtual practice. Cirksena, who used BNY Pershing as a local advisor, made the switch to Altruist after going virtual. "Altruist has worked very, very well for a fully virtual advisor. Their platform is excellent," he said. "It's all digital account opening and everything." "There's nothing that we can't do virtually … that somebody can do in person," Cirksena said. "You just have to think about what you would do in every aspect of the job if you were in person. And then you need to think about, 'Does that need to change in some small way, doing things virtually?'" Marketing on a national level is no small task for virtual advisors. At MDRN Capital, which had roughly $150 million in AUM in 2024, Cirksena said they spend close to $500,000 a month on marketing. "We know what our client acquisition costs are, so we know that those are profitable dollars for us to spend," Cirksena said. "But it's different when you're marketing on a national scale. You're not competing with the Edward Jones office that's down the street, or the local independent guy who's down the street. You're competing against Fidelity. You're competing against Fisher Investments, Creative Planning, Vanguard, Mariner Wealth — like those are the ones you're competing against, essentially." Marketing on platforms like Facebook and Google can become a major expense for many virtual advisors, but competing on a national scale also requires that advisors do more than simply buy ads. Creating finfluencer-esque content that provides value to viewers can be an effective way to accomplish that, advisors say. READ MORE: Fiduciary standard drives client trust in advisors: Cerulli research "If you put out good content and you don't ask for anything in return … people will find it," Cirksena said. "And when they eventually are at the stage that they're looking to work with an advisor, if they're open to working with somebody nationally, who's the first person they're going to think of calling? They're going to think of the person that they've seen or heard who added value to them, and who didn't ask for anything in return for the value that they gave them." Alongside sharing things like educational content, advisors say authenticity is key to marketing in a saturated market. Tim Witham, founder of Balanced Life Planning in Villa Hills, Kentucky, said that even a simple video on his homepage has helped clients connect with him. "They're like, 'We loved what you had to say. You were very laid-back,'" Witham said. "It wasn't a perfect video. It's kind of weird, clients actually appreciate that you're human, and it's not like super edited." Knutson followed a similar style when writing the copy for her website. "I spent a lot of time … on the copy of my website, making sure it's my voice and not just something that looks pretty," Knutson said. "I've gotten numerous times people say, 'Oh, I met you and you sound like your website,' because it's my voice, it's my words, it's my heart, and that's my storefront." Beyond the technical work of financial planning, advisors say that connecting with clients on a personal level is essential to creating strong relationships. Virtual advisors don't have the benefit of sitting across a table from a client or going out to lunch with them, but advisors like Knutson say that deep, intentional listening can go a long way toward closing that gap. For Knutson, she creates that connection by "naming curiosities" in conversations with her clients, asking questions like "What was that pause about? Can you bring me into what was going on in your head?" READ MORE: Do clients trust you? Depends on who they — and you — are Even simple things — like looking into the camera properly on a video call or communicating promptly — can make a big difference in creating a sense of trust with a client, Knutson said. Creating that trust over virtual calls can be more difficult with older clients. But Cirksena said that age isn't as big a barrier as it's often made out to be when talking about advising clients virtually. "Is there going to be a small percentage of people who are over 75 years old, who wouldn't want to open a Zoom meeting? Maybe. But everybody now, between the ages of 55 and 70 even, 90-plus percent of them are totally comfortable with opening a Zoom meeting," Cirksena said. Advisors are often thinking about what they can do to make their virtual practice mirror a local one, but digital-first advising also provides the opportunity to advise clients in ways that local planners rarely utilize. Knutson and Witham both use forms of asynchronous communication with their clients as a way of differentiating their firms. READ MORE: Compliance teams have their 👀 on emojis For busy clients, Witham said he will record a video of himself reviewing a client's financial plan and send it to them, so they can watch it in their own time. After watching the video, Witham and the client can have a more efficient call that saves the client time. "I live my target niche. I am my demographic, which I think helps me a lot. I've got three kids — two are going to be in high school, and one's on the way. So like, my evenings are insane," Witham said. "Having to think about, 'Hey, I gotta meet with a financial planner to go over my plan,' can be really freaking hard to try to find the time to do that."
