Latest news with #YR4
Daily Mirror
3 hours ago
- Science
- Daily Mirror
Huge asteroid hurtles towards the Moon and could spark 'massive consequences'
NASA says the 10-storey YR4 asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032, which could see global communications come to a complete standstill as debris makes its way into the atmosphere and destroys satellites A huge asteroid that was thought to be heading towards earth is actually on course for the moon - which could wreak digital havoc across the planet. The city killer YR4 asteroid - which is the size of a 10-storey building - was first spotted at the end of 2024 and was said to have a three per cent chance of hitting the Earth. NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies has now adjusted its prediction, giving the asteroid a 4.3 per cent chance of smashing into the moon as early as 2032. What makes it more terrifying is that the probability has been steadily increasing, after NASA gave it a 3.8 per cent probability in April and 1.7 per cent in February. According to experts, if the rock did make contact with the moon, it would have similar fallout to an atomic bomb. Scientists believe it would spark a meteor shower that could threaten our satellite systems. Australian National University astrologist and cosmologist, Brad Tucker, said just because the asteroid is no longer heading for Earth, it could still cause irreparable damage to the planet. 'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said. It's unlikely that any fragments would plummeted to Earth, there is a possibility that some debris could enter our atmosphere - putting a number of vital satellites at risk of destruction. 'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker tells Sky Australia. 'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris. We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the Moon as well.' Mr Tucker explained that new studies show how a strike with the moon could see huge amounts of debris being pulled into the atmosphere. Once there, it would make it 1,000 times more likely for a satellite to be hit. 'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact," he said. In the event of a satellite strike, the sudden loss could wreak havoc on the ground. Global connectivity would be completely lost, as would navigation systems, financial markets and military operations. YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, according to solar system dynamics expert Dr Paul Wiegert. Its collosal size means it would easily take out a space station or satellite, he said.
Sky News AU
a day ago
- Science
- Sky News AU
‘Massive consequence': Experts reveal city-killer asteroid could collide with the moon
An asteroid the size of a 10-story building could now make impact with the moon, which would global communications and sending the planet into digital meltdown. The city-killing asteroid known as YR4 was first discovered in late 2024 and was initially given a 3 per cent chance of colliding with Earth. However, the latest observations by NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory suggested that there was now a 4.3 per cent likelihood of YR4 smashing into the moon in 2032, up from 3.8 per cent in April and 1.7 per cent in February. Scientists believe that if this occurs, the impact would be similar to a nuclear bomb, triggering an unprecedented meteor shower that could potentially put Earth's vital satellite systems in critical jeopardy. Astrologist and cosmologist at the Australian National University Brad Tucker said that while the giant rock was no longer hurtling towards Earth, there would still be disastrous consequences for the planet if the massive asteroid hit the moon. 'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said. Mr Tucker, who has been closely following YR4's trajectory, stressed that although it remained unlikely for any debris fragments to hit the Earth's surface, rogue fragments of rock could enter the atmosphere and endanger hundreds of crucial satellites. 'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker stated. 'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris.' "We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the moon as well.' New studies have shown the callosal amount of debris that could be pulled into the atmosphere if the moon was struck made it 1,000 times more likely a satellite would be compromised. 'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact.' If satellites were suddenly lost the ramifications would be widespread, disrupting global connectivity, navigation systems, financial markets and military operations. Dr Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario who has studied the asteroids journey said YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the moon 'in at least 5,000 years,' and could easily take out a satellite or a human-inhabited space station. Discussions have now begun as to how governments and space agencies can divert the asteroid's course to protect the planet. 'There's a question now of can we do a mission to alter it away from the moon, we've done that before and once we reach a certain threshold, we should consider this mission because of the moon and because of that downward impact.'
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Science
- Yahoo
'City killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with 'bullet-like' meteors if it hits the moon in 2032
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. New simulations reveal that the infamous "city killer" asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with "bullet-like" debris if it hits the moon in seven years' time, potentially triggering an eye-catching meteor shower — and endangering the satellites that orbit our planet. 2024 YR4 is a potentially hazardous asteroid measuring roughly 200 feet (60 meters) across, making it large enough to wipe out a large urban area if it were to hit Earth head-on. It was first discovered in December 2024 but made headlines earlier this year when scientists first predicted that there was a chance it could smash into Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The odds of a collision peaked at 3.1% in February, which was enough to prompt NASA to study it extensively. However, subsequent analysis revealed there is zero chance of it impacting our planet. But in April, researchers realized that, while Earth is no longer in the firing line, the space rock could still hit the moon. The odds of such a collision have grown slowly but steadily, and most recently jumped to 4.3% earlier this month. Experts will likely know the final likelihood by 2028, when the asteroid will make its next close approach to our planet. In a new study, uploaded June 12 to the preprint server arXiv, researchers ran computer simulations to model what a lunar impact might look like. The team estimated that up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of material could be ejected from the lunar surface. If 2024 YR4 hits the Earth-facing side of the moon — which is roughly a 50/50 chance — up to 10% of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, the scientists wrote. 2024 YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the moon in "at least 5,000 years," study lead author Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario, Canada, who has also extensively studied the "God of Chaos" asteroid Apophis that will zip past Earth in 2029, told French news site AFP. The impact would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released," he added. Related: 'Just the tip of the iceberg': Why risky asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come It is important to note that the new simulations (visible below) were created before the odds of a lunar impact rose from 3.8% to 4.3% on June 16, which slightly raises the chances of this scenario playing out. But it is still far from a certainty. The findings from the new study have also not yet been peer-reviewed. It is unlikely that any of the potential debris fragments will pose a risk to people on the planet's surface. Instead, we may be treated to a "spectacular" meteor shower as wayward fragments of rock burn up in Earth's atmosphere, which could last for several days and be seen by people across the globe, Weigert said. But while we will almost certainly be safe on the ground from any potential lunar meteor shower, our space-based infrastructure could be under threat. The amount of debris that could potentially be pulled close to Earth makes it around 1,000 times more likely that our satellites could be struck by a meteor. And by 2032, the number of spacecraft orbiting our planet is expected to rise significantly. "A centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is a lot like a bullet," Weigert said. Such an object could easily take out a satellite or cause critical damage to human-inhabited space stations, such as China's Tiangong station. (The International Space Station is scheduled to be decommissioned by 2030.) If the odds of a lunar impact increase further in the coming years, government agencies may make the decision to try and divert the asteroid's course to protect Earth's space assets. The asteroid would be a "good target" for testing our planetary defence capabilities, Weigert said. "I'm sure it will be considered." RELATED STORIES —An 'invisible threat': Swarm of hidden 'city killer' asteroids around Venus could one day collide with Earth, simulations show —No, NASA hasn't warned of an impending asteroid strike in 2038. Here's what really happened. —'Planet killer' asteroids are hiding in the sun's glare. Can we stop them in time? NASA already demonstrated its ability to redirect dangerous asteroids back in 2022, when it diverted the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos by slamming the DART probe into it. 2024 YR4 is only around half the size of that particular space rock. However, if we wait too long, it may become "dangerous" to try and alter the space rock's trajectory because a wrong move could put it onto a potentially catastrophic collision course with Earth, Weigert said. Some experts are also worried that the proposed cuts to NASA's budget by the Trump administration could make it harder to track dangerous asteroids, such as 2024 YR4, in the future.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Science
- Yahoo
How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?
I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As defending Earth from unexpected intruders such as asteroids is part of my expertise, I immediately started receiving questions from my students and colleagues about what was happening. When scientists spot an asteroid whose trajectory might take it close to Earth, they monitor it frequently and calculate the probability that it might collide with our planet. As they receive more observational data, they get a better picture of what could happen. Just having more data points early doesn't make scientists' predictions better. They need to keep following the asteroid as it moves through space to better understand its trajectory. Reflecting on the incident a few months later, I wondered whether there might have been a better way for scientists to communicate about the risk with the public. We got accurate information, but as the questions I heard indicated, it wasn't always enough to understand what it actually means. The 2024 YR24 asteroid has a diameter of about 196 feet (60 meters) – equivalent to approximately a 15-story building in length. At the time of the announcement in January, the asteroid's impact probability was reported to exceed 1%. The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth. One in 100 is kind of rare, but still too close for comfort if you're talking about the odds of a collision that could devastate Earth. Over time, though, further observations and analyses revealed an almost-zero chance of this asteroid colliding with Earth. After the initial notice in January, the impact probability continuously increased up to 3.1% on Feb. 18, but dropped to 1.5% on Feb. 19. Then, the impact probability continuously went down, until it hit 0.004% on Feb. 24. As of June 15, it now has an impact probability of less than 0.0000081%. But while the probability of hitting Earth went down, the probability of the asteroid hitting the Moon started increasing. It went up to 1.7% on Feb. 24. As of April 2, it is 3.8%. If it hits the Moon, some ejected materials from this collision could reach the Earth. However, these materials would burn away when they enter the Earth's thick atmosphere. To see whether an approaching object could hit Earth, researchers find out what an asteroid's orbit looks like using a technique called astrometry. This technique can accurately determine an object's orbit, down to only a few kilometers of uncertainty. But astrometry needs accurate observational data taken for a long time. Any uncertainty in the calculation of the object's orbit causes variations in the predicted solution. Instead of one precise orbit, the calculation usually gives scientists a cloud of its possible orbits. The ellipse enclosing these locations is called an error ellipse. The impact probability describes how many orbital predictions in this ellipse hit the Earth. Without enough observational data, the orbital uncertainty is high, so the ellipse tends to be large. In a large ellipse, there's a higher chance that the ellipse 'accidentally' includes Earth – even if the center is off the planet. So, even if an asteroid ultimately won't hit Earth, its error ellipse might still include the planet before scientists collect enough data to narrow down the uncertainty. As the level of uncertainty goes down, the ellipse shrinks. So, when Earth is inside a small error ellipse, the impact probability may become higher than when it's inside a large error ellipse. Once the error ellipse shrinks enough that it no longer includes Earth, the impact probability goes down significantly. That's what happened to 2024 YR4. The impact probability is a single, practical value offering meaningful insight into an impact threat. However, just using the impact probability without any context may not provide meaningful guidelines to the public, as we saw with 2024 YR4. Holding on and waiting for more data to refine a collision prediction, or introducing new metrics for assessing impacts on Earth, are alternative courses of action to provide people with better guidelines for future threats before adding confusion and fear. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Toshi Hirabayashi, Georgia Institute of Technology Read more: An asteroid impact could wipe out an entire city – a space security expert explains NASA's plans to prevent a potential catastrophe NASA's robotic prospectors are helping scientists understand what asteroids are made of – setting the stage for miners to follow someday NASA successfully shifted an asteroid's orbit – DART spacecraft crashed into and moved Dimorphos I have been studying planetary defense, particularly being part of past, ongoing, and future small body missions. I was part of the NASA/DART mission. I am currently part of the NASA/Lucy mission and the ESA/Hera mission. I am also on the Hayabusa2# team, led by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), as part of an international collaboration. I have no affiliation with JAXA.
Scottish Sun
4 days ago
- Science
- Scottish Sun
Colossal asteroid could damage thousands of Earth's satellites with ‘bullet speed' rocks if it hits Moon, experts warn
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) A COLOSSAL asteroid on a collision course with the Moon could damage thousands of satellites and send shrapnel blasting towards Earth, experts have warned. Asteroid 2024 YR4 sparked concern earlier this year with fears of a "city killer" incident if it hit Earth directly in 2032. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 3 The asteroid currently has a 4.3 per cent chance of hitting the Moon Credit: Getty 3 Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently hiding and won't be seen clearly again until 2028 Credit: Getty Fortunately, newer estimates put Earth in the clear - instead the Moon is at risk. Nasa predictions suggest there's a 4.3 per cent chance of the massive asteroid hitting the Moon. Now scientists say there could still consequences that affect us all the same if it does indeed strike the Moon. A direct hit would leave a huge 1km-diameter crater on the lunar surface and send millions of kilograms of debris pelting towards Earth. Dr Paul Wiegert from University of Western Ontario, told AFP that the impact on the Moon's surface would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released". "A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet," he said. Most of the lunar rock would burn up in Earth's atmosphere posing no threat to life on the ground. But some of that material could blast around Earth's orbit, striking satellites and spacecraft. Given the increasing number of satellites in lower Earth orbit, this risks damaging satellites used for communications or navigation. However, there would be some positives too, in the form of a stunning meteor shower. Why Earth's now SAVED from 'city-killer' asteroid YR4- Expert reveals how odds FLIPPED from 1-32 to 'Threat 0' in days The research was conducted by Canadian researchers and presented in a paper that's not currently peer reviewed. "If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years," the paper warns. "The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching." Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbits the sun and is currently too far away to be seen properly by scientists. It's not expected to be visible again until 2028 when experts can reassess the possible impact. 3
