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Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks usually rise by 10% a year. Those days may be over.
Americans are wise to invest in the stock market, we are told, because stocks have yielded historical gains of about 10% a year. But not, perhaps, this year. Many analysts predict that the S&P 500 index will end 2025 essentially flat, or with only meager gains. In one June 25 roundup, Yahoo Finance charts several strategists with year-end projections that put the benchmark S&P index between 5,600 and 6,100. Those figures fall below, or only slightly above, where the S&P started the year, around 5,900. Some forecasts range higher, and forecasters have been growing more bullish about American stocks in 2025. But anyone who predicts double-digit returns this year risks being branded an outlier. If big investment firms expect the stock market to finish 2025 more or less where it started, how should armchair investors react? Is the investment landscape shifting beneath our feet? First, let's explore the reasoning behind those gloomy forecasts. The stock market opened strong in 2025. The broad S&P index sat near its all-time high, following two years of conspicuous growth. That growth spurt, alone, was enough to seed caution in forecasters. A surging S&P means stock prices are relatively high. Some stocks are overpriced. Bargains are fewer. The index may not have that much room to grow. 'I believe that, given the strong returns over the past two years, some lower returns are expected,' said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Bank. Comerica's own projections call for the S&P 500 to end the year at 6,400, a number toward the high end of forecasts. Wall Street prognosticators have been bearish on stocks in 2025 because of one overarching theme: uncertainty. 'It's all the volatile actors in our current economy,' said Catherine Valega, a certified financial planner near Boston. 'It's like you don't know from one day to the next: Do we have tariffs? Do we not have tariffs?' It's hard to predict how President Trump's import taxes will affect prices, and thus, inflation. The trade war, coupled with Trump's immigration crackdown, could slow economic growth. Recession fears are heightened. The Federal Reserve may or may not ease interest rates in response. 'We're assuming that we sidestep a recession, that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but not immediate,' Teal said, reflecting a common view on Wall Street. 'And so, there is an element of cautious optimism that I think is in the market, but a high degree of uncertainty and macro policy unknowns that will keep markets contained.' There's another big reason, analysts say, why year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 are trending low: Forecasters tend to err on the conservative side. 'The analysts have historically kind of underestimated S&P 500 returns,' said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. 'People don't want to stick their necks out with a bold prediction and be wrong.' That impulse, she said, also explains why stock forecasts tend to bunch together. No one wants to stand out. 'It's hard being an outlier,' said David Meier, a senior analyst at Motley Fool. Meier cites yet another reason why stock forecasters tend to aim low: 'Being negative, let's call it bearish, tends to get more clicks,' he said. Readers gravitate to distressing news about stocks. Now, let's move on to the practical question: If the S&P 500 might not gain much ground in 2025, what should ordinary investors do about it? The easy answer, of course, is to do nothing. Stock market projections for next month, or next year, shouldn't matter much to an investor who is in for the long haul, advisers say. And that advice applies to just about everyone: If you aren't in for the long haul, experts advise, stocks might not be for you. 'If you need funds soon, don't have it invested,' said Randy Bruns, a certified financial planner in Naperville, Illinois. 'If you don't need the funds for 15 years, stop looking at the volatility.' Market downturns tend to be brief. Recessions are shorter than they seem. Anyone who is saving for retirement, or for other long-term goals, can generally ride them out. 'If you have the luxury of being a long-term investor, be one,' Akullian said. There is, however, a longer and more nuanced answer to the question of how to respond to those conservative projections for stocks in 2025. It involves this complicating factor: Stock market forecasts are also surprisingly conservative for 2035. Vanguard, the investment firm, predicts the U.S. stock market as a whole will rise by an underwhelming 3.8% to 5.8% a year over the next 10 years. 'Growth' stocks, the likes of Nvidia and Amazon, are projected to rise by only 2.5% to 4.5%: not much faster than inflation. Those forecasts are based on the idea that many U.S. stocks are overpriced, in essence, and trading above their real value. In Vanguard's analysis, everyday investors who want the gaudy returns they have come to expect from American growth stocks would do well to look elsewhere: Global stocks. Small-cap American stocks, in companies with a lower market value. 'Value' stocks, trading below their intrinsic worth. 'I would say it's time to have a more balanced allocation,' said Teal of Comerica. Bruns, the financial planner, suggests average investors should 'diversify across all the broad asset classes that should comprise a textbook portfolio.' That doesn't mean you should sell all of your Alphabet stocks, experts say. But the time might be right to scrutinize your portfolio. Does it include foreign stocks? Small-cap stocks? Bonds? If not, then you might consider rebalancing your portfolio to make it more diverse. 'The easiest way to do that, if you are a 401(k) contributor, is to change your future allocations,' Valega said. That way, you don't have to tinker with your current investments. Not sure how to rebalance? 'Reach out to your adviser,' Valega said. 'That's what we're there for.' This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Forecasters don't expect much from stocks in 2025. Should you? Sign in to access your portfolio
USA Today
4 hours ago
- Business
- USA Today
Stocks usually rise by 10% a year. Those days may be over.
Americans are wise to invest in the stock market, we are told, because stocks have yielded historical gains of about 10% a year. But not, perhaps, this year. Many analysts predict that the S&P 500 index will end 2025 essentially flat, or with only meager gains. In one June 25 roundup, Yahoo Finance charts several strategists with year-end projections that put the benchmark S&P index between 5,600 and 6,100. Those figures fall below, or only slightly above, where the S&P started the year, around 5,900. Some forecasts range higher, and forecasters have been growing more bullish about American stocks in 2025. But anyone who predicts double-digit returns this year risks being branded an outlier. If big investment firms expect the stock market to finish 2025 more or less where it started, how should armchair investors react? Is the investment landscape shifting beneath our feet? First, let's explore the reasoning behind those gloomy forecasts. Stocks opened high in 2025. Maybe too high. The stock market opened strong in 2025. The broad S&P index sat near its all-time high, following two years of conspicuous growth. That growth spurt, alone, was enough to seed caution in forecasters. A surging S&P means stock prices are relatively high. Some stocks are overpriced. Bargains are fewer. The index may not have that much room to grow. 'I believe that, given the strong returns over the past two years, some lower returns are expected,' said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Bank. Comerica's own projections call for the S&P 500 to end the year at 6,400, a number toward the high end of forecasts. Wall Street prognosticators have been bearish on stocks in 2025 because of one overarching theme: uncertainty. 'It's all the volatile actors in our current economy,' said Catherine Valega, a certified financial planner near Boston. 'It's like you don't know from one day to the next: Do we have tariffs? Do we not have tariffs?' It's hard to predict how President Trump's import taxes will affect prices, and thus, inflation. The trade war, coupled with Trump's immigration crackdown, could slow economic growth. Recession fears are heightened. The Federal Reserve may or may not ease interest rates in response. 'We're assuming that we sidestep a recession, that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but not immediate,' Teal said, reflecting a common view on Wall Street. 'And so, there is an element of cautious optimism that I think is in the market, but a high degree of uncertainty and macro policy unknowns that will keep markets contained.' Stock forecasters don't want to be wrong There's another big reason, analysts say, why year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 are trending low: Forecasters tend to err on the conservative side. 'The analysts have historically kind of underestimated S&P 500 returns,' said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. 'People don't want to stick their necks out with a bold prediction and be wrong.' That impulse, she said, also explains why stock forecasts tend to bunch together. No one wants to stand out. 'It's hard being an outlier,' said David Meier, a senior analyst at Motley Fool. Meier cites yet another reason why stock forecasters tend to aim low: 'Being negative, let's call it bearish, tends to get more clicks,' he said. Readers gravitate to distressing news about stocks. So, stocks are having an off year. What can I do? Now, let's move on to the practical question: If the S&P 500 might not gain much ground in 2025, what should ordinary investors do about it? The easy answer, of course, is to do nothing. Stock market projections for next month, or next year, shouldn't matter much to an investor who is in for the long haul, advisers say. And that advice applies to just about everyone: If you aren't in for the long haul, experts advise, stocks might not be for you. 'If you need funds soon, don't have it invested,' said Randy Bruns, a certified financial planner in Naperville, Illinois. 'If you don't need the funds for 15 years, stop looking at the volatility.' Market downturns tend to be brief. Recessions are shorter than they seem. Anyone who is saving for retirement, or for other long-term goals, can generally ride them out. 'If you have the luxury of being a long-term investor, be one,' Akullian said. There is, however, a longer and more nuanced answer to the question of how to respond to those conservative projections for stocks in 2025. A gloomy forecast for 2025 -- and for 2035 It involves this complicating factor: Stock market forecasts are also surprisingly conservative for 2035. Vanguard, the investment firm, predicts the U.S. stock market as a whole will rise by an underwhelming 3.8% to 5.8% a year over the next 10 years. 'Growth' stocks, the likes of Nvidia and Amazon, are projected to rise by only 2.5% to 4.5%: not much faster than inflation. Those forecasts are based on the idea that many U.S. stocks are overpriced, in essence, and trading above their real value. In Vanguard's analysis, everyday investors who want the gaudy returns they have come to expect from American growth stocks would do well to look elsewhere: Global stocks. Small-cap American stocks, in companies with a lower market value. 'Value' stocks, trading below their intrinsic worth. 'I would say it's time to have a more balanced allocation,' said Teal of Comerica. Bruns, the financial planner, suggests average investors should 'diversify across all the broad asset classes that should comprise a textbook portfolio.' That doesn't mean you should sell all of your Alphabet stocks, experts say. But the time might be right to scrutinize your portfolio. Does it include foreign stocks? Small-cap stocks? Bonds? If not, then you might consider rebalancing your portfolio to make it more diverse. 'The easiest way to do that, if you are a 401(k) contributor, is to change your future allocations,' Valega said. That way, you don't have to tinker with your current investments. Not sure how to rebalance? 'Reach out to your adviser,' Valega said. 'That's what we're there for.'
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
While Most Redditors Panic-Sell Bitcoin Below $100K, These Investors Are Buying the Blood
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing its most dramatic selloff in months, with Bitcoin plummeting below the psychologically critical $100,000 level and Ethereum bleeding from $2,700 to $2,100 in just one week. But behind the panic selling and social media despair, a fascinating divide is emerging between seasoned investors and newcomers—one that could determine who survives this downturn. For crypto investors accustomed to market volatility driven by regulatory news or institutional adoption, this geopolitical trigger represents something different: a reminder that digital assets, despite their decentralized nature, remain deeply connected to global risk sentiment. Don't Miss: Trade crypto futures on Plus500 with up to $200 in bonuses — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. Grow your IRA or 401(k) with Crypto – unlock the power of alternative investments including a Crypto IRA within your retirement account. 'The spike in oil prices will hurt the world,' noted one investor, capturing the broader economic implications that extend far beyond crypto portfolios. What's most revealing isn't the price action itself, but how different types of investors are responding. The cryptocurrency community is essentially splitting into two camps, each with dramatically different strategies. The Panic Sellers are experiencing what one investor called being 'beyond exhausted' and 'sad and tired as a crypto investor.' Comments like 'I am never going to financially recover from this' and admissions of being 'down 55%' reveal the emotional toll of this downturn. Many are questioning fundamental assumptions about crypto cycles, with one noting: 'The biggest mistake I made was thinking that Bitcoin runs up first and then alt season happens like in 2021.' The Opportunistic Buyers, however, are taking a completely different approach. 'Buy when there's blood on the streets,' advised one, while another declared: 'F*ck those who are scared, I'm buying more.' These investors are thanking panic sellers for providing 'retail exit liquidity' and planning to 'DCA down' during the chaos. Trending: New to crypto? Get up to $400 in rewards for successfully completing short educational courses and making your first qualifying trade on Coinbase. Perhaps nowhere is the divide more apparent than in attitudes toward alternative cryptocurrencies. The 'altcoin bloodbath' has been particularly brutal, with one investor observing: 'Total 3 Alts chart is literally going straight down parabolic. Guess this is the alt season they've been talking about. Just the wrong way.' This has led to a notable shift in strategy among experienced investors. 'Gave up on Alts years ago. Stack sats and enjoy the ride,' commented one Bitcoin maximalist, while another admitted selling 'most of these sh*tty alts' before the crash. The harsh reality? Many altcoins that seemed promising during the bull run are now revealing their lack of fundamental value during this stress test. Despite the doom and gloom dominating social media, a closer look at investor behavior reveals three key strategies emerging among those who've survived previous crypto winters: 1. Flight to Bitcoin Quality: Experienced investors are consolidating positions in Bitcoin rather than diversifying across numerous altcoins. The philosophy is simple: if you're going to weather a crypto winter, do it with the most established digital asset. 2. Dollar-Cost Averaging Into Chaos: Rather than trying to time the bottom, methodical investors are using systematic buying during the decline. As one put it: 'DCA down today and Monday.' 3. Emotional Detachment: The most successful crypto investors have learned to separate their emotions from their investment decisions. While newcomers express despair, veterans are making calculated moves based on long-term conviction rather than short-term isn't crypto's first rodeo with geopolitical chaos. Digital assets have weathered the COVID pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, banking sector stress, and multiple regulatory crackdowns. Each time, the same pattern emerges: panic selling creates opportunities for patient capital. What's different this time is the scale of institutional involvement. Unlike previous crypto winters, major corporations, ETFs, and sovereign wealth funds now hold significant Bitcoin positions. This institutional backing provides a different foundation than purely retail-driven markets of the past. Scenario 1: Extended Winter – If geopolitical tensions escalate further, crypto could face months of suppressed prices as risk assets broadly decline. Bitcoin could test lower support levels, potentially reaching the $80,000-$90,000 range that some analysts are predicting. Scenario 2: Quick Recovery – Should tensions de-escalate quickly, crypto's oversold condition could lead to a sharp rebound, similar to previous geopolitical scares that proved temporary. Scenario 3: Selective Survival – The most likely outcome may be a market that separates winners from losers more definitively, with Bitcoin and a handful of altcoins with real utility surviving while weaker projects fade away. This crypto crash is serving as a brutal but necessary stress test. It's separating investors who understand the long-term potential of digital assets from those who were simply riding momentum. For those with strong stomachs and long-term conviction, this period may represent the kind of opportunity that creates 'generational wealth'—though only for investors who can withstand the emotional and financial pressure of watching their portfolios decline in the short term. The key question isn't whether Bitcoin will recover from below $100,000—history suggests it will. The question is whether individual investors have the patience, risk tolerance, and strategic thinking to benefit when it does. As one investor philosophically noted: 'If you're a man, you don't cry about it, you take life, the ups and downs; if you're a real man you never go down, you just stay up!' The crypto market is delivering its harshest lesson yet. Those who learn from it may find themselves significantly wealthier on the other side. Read Next: Peter Thiel turned $1,700 into $5 billion—now accredited investors are eyeing this software company with similar breakout potential. Learn how you can invest with $1,000 at just $0.30/share. This article While Most Redditors Panic-Sell Bitcoin Below $100K, These Investors Are Buying the Blood originally appeared on
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil price volatility flattens as Middle East tensions settle
Oil volatility (^OVX) has leveled out as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East fade. Yahoo Finance anchor Julie Hyman takes a closer look at the recent oil price (CL=F, BZ=F) action and the moves in the broader energy sector (XLE). To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Crude prices have seen big swings in recent weeks amid geopolitical uncertainty. We're taking a closer look at the action in our chart of the day. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman joining us now with more. Julie. Well, energy volatility is what I am watching here. You know that there is a volatility measure for the S&P 500. You might not know that there is one for oil prices as well. It's called the OVX as opposed to the VIX for stocks. And the OVX, as you might imagine, given all the volatility we've seen in oil recently, really spiked to highs that we have not seen since early 2022 as we saw Israel hit Iran, Iran hit Israel, and then the US of course hit Iranian nuclear assets. So, all of that causing that huge spike in oil volatility on concerns that we would see flows disrupted. But it is just as quickly calmed down. That spike was very short-lived as we saw it spike and then really recede here. Couple of things that oil traders are now watching. There is an OPEC Plus meeting that is coming up in a couple of weeks, a little less than two weeks. And there are some reports now that OPEC Plus may extend its production cuts. So that putting some downward pressure on oil prices. Also, Bloomberg is reporting that Treasury Secretary Scott Beson said that sanctions on Iran are remaining in place. So that's something else that oil traders are factoring in. But really we saw oil really lose about $10 per barrel of value if you're talking about WTI while all this was going down and we were seeing it come back down. WTI is off about 9%, almost 8, 9% so far this year, whereas the ETF that tracks those energy stocks, the XLE, is really little changed. And I looked at it earlier today, it's almost evenly split between gains and losses in terms of the stocks that are up and the stocks that are down on the year. The best performer in that ETF EQT, which is more of a natural gas company as opposed to oil. Halliburton, the oil services giant, is the worst performer within that ETF, Josh. All right, thank you, Julie. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500, Nasdaq close at fresh all-time highs
Both the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed at new record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 432 points. Stocks briefly shed gains after President Trump posted that the US was "terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada," but ultimately, the averages rallied into the close. Yahoo Finance Reporters Julie Hyman and Allie Canal recap the action at the close. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. That is the closing bell on Wall Street. And now, it's market domination overtime. We're giving you full team coverage of all the moves to get you up to speed on the action from today's trade. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman, as well as Mark Malick, Siebert Financial CIO, and Yahoo Finance's Ali Canal join us here to break down the moves today. Let's get it down to Julie Hyman at the New York Stock Exchange for more about where we closed. Julie. Well, it was looking a little iffy there for a while, but the S&P 500 has indeed closed at a new record high, Josh, surpassing the 6144 that was the previous closing high. So 6155 is round where we're closing here. Indeed, a record and recovering after that dip that we saw in the afternoon that seemed to be a double whammy of President Trump saying that there was not a trade deal happening with Canada and that tariffs would remain in place on that, a trading, close, one-time close trading partner, and also some sort of technical effects of a Russell reconstitution here. So a couple of things to watch there. The Nasdaq, we should mention, also closing at a record high here. The Dow still pretty far from that level, which was above 45,000, but all three major averages making it there. As we've been talking a lot about, it is partially momentum here, and a lot of investors and traders, especially as we get to the end of the quarter, perhaps seeing a little performance chasing here, not wanting to end the quarter in the red if they were not positioned to take advantage of the rally that has been happening. From a fundamental basis, yes, tariffs are still hanging over our heads, but investors seem to be looking to the Fed to perhaps rescue prospects before the end of the year, pricing in a couple of rate cuts. Oh, and by the way, yes, we are heading into earnings season. And even though earnings are projected to have the smallest year-over-year increase in two years, still, a lot of folks we're talking to are saying they still see those prospects as fairly solid on the earnings front. And I think Ali's there's got a deeper look at what's going on in the market. Hey, Julie. And yeah, if we take a look at the sector action for today, you see consumer discretionary communication services and industrials leading us higher. And then we have energy, healthcare, and interesting to see tech as one of the laggards there, especially considering we got that record for the Nasdaq composite and a few other records this week. But here you're looking at a five day and we are up over 4% there. Now Monday does mark the end of June, so let's take a look at month to date here. You will see tech at the leaderboard, the top of the leaderboard, I should say, followed by communication services. Then you have real estate, materials also, healthcare as some of your laggards here. But Monday just doesn't mark the end of June, it also caps off the first six months of the year. So to that point, let's take a look at a year to date. So year-to-date sector action, we have industrials leading the way higher there. Healthcare is your biggest laggard along with consumer discretionary and energy. But this is an interesting chart to look at. If we take a look at year to date for consumer discretionary, this is probably one of the most exposed sectors when it comes to President Trump's tariffs. You see that dip in April after the Liberation Day tariff announcements, and then we bounced off of those lows there. And then same with energy that's also been an interesting story. When Trump announced those Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs, there were a lot of concerns that we could be entering a recession. So there was demand concerns here for energy that led to the stark drop. And then we saw supply concerns after that Middle East escalation between Israel, Iran. That de-escalation, though, brought oil prices down. And now year to date, we are off about four tenths of a percent here. So I think this paints a good picture when it comes to a lot of those macro headwinds facing stocks, whether it be tensions in the in the Middle East, or what Trump decides to post on Truth Social. Josh, back to you. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
