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Otago Daily Times
07-07-2025
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Where are the peacemakers in the holy land?
Will the war-torn holy land ever be peaceful again? Joss Miller asks. In 1982, my wife Dawn and I spent a couple of weeks travelling around Israel. We were keen to get a sense of this country, whose inception as a state in 1948 was relatively recent. There had been major wars with Arab neighbours in 1956, 1967 and 1973 that had a profound effect in shaping its security framework and high level of militarisation. Tel Aviv was a modern, vibrant and bustling city. Jerusalem was easily accessed from there by bus and had all the hallmarks of a special city for many cultures and religions. One could sense though a certain fragility and impermanence, given the turmoil of numerous invasions and conquests that had taken place there over the centuries. Southwards lay the starkness of the Negev desert, with arid, gaunt hills surrounding it. Eilat, a coastal resort situated on the Red Sea, was a mecca for those seeking sun and relaxation. The Jordanian border was visible from there, but a no-go area at that time. Israeli military personnel were always present. To the north, a sense of peace and tranquillity could be found in Galilee where life appeared slower and less hectic. Not far from here was Capernaum, a quiet place where Jesus once lived. We were fortunate to be taken to the top of the Golan Heights, an important strategic point that was annexed from Syria following the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Druze villages dotted the hillsides where families farmed on small plots of land. Also visible was the road to Damascus in Syria where in late 1918 Lawrence of Arabia would have been leading Arab forces, in the hope of securing a better future for them following the defeat of the Turks and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The British and French colonial powers, though, had other plans which since have all played a part in sowing some of the seeds for Middle East conflict. We observed Israeli tanks mobilising near the Lebanese border with a full-scale invasion of that country taking place a few weeks later, directed at the Palestine Liberation Organisation. The drums of war have returned there recently involving Hezbollah and resulting in more death and destruction. Tension in the West Bank and Gaza has been a constant for decades, regularly spilling over into violence: 20 months ago, the militant Hamas group in Gaza launched a violent attack on Israel, sparking an overwhelming military response that has resulted in huge numbers of Palestinian deaths and injuries, allied with immense grief and suffering. This horrific tragedy continues to unfold daily. Only a few days ago Israel and Iran were both under serious attack: that has fortunately resulted in a ceasefire. It is a travesty that peace continues to remain elusive in what is often referred to as the holy land despite significant efforts over the years to achieve this. Extraordinary and inspired new leadership in Israel and its various neighbours is critical: acrimony and grievances need to be set aside. There must be a genuine attempt to work together for the goal of enhancing the welfare of all citizens and rebuilding mutual trust, respect and co-operation. In particular, the circumstances of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank urgently requires a solution providing them with autonomy, dignity and security so they and Israelis can attain a peaceful future, with each under wise leadership. Maybe then the holy land will truly become holy again. — Joss Miller is a retired Dunedin lawyer.
Egypt Independent
23-06-2025
- Business
- Egypt Independent
America's economy could face a war shock
CNN — As if a global trade war wasn't enough for businesses and consumers to contend with, it's looking increasingly like the Israel-Iran conflict could reach the brink of a full-blown war. While the conflict is playing out thousands of miles away from US soil, Americans may not be able to escape the economic impact of it. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday after the central bank's latest monetary policy meeting that officials are monitoring the situation. 'What's tended to happen is when there's turmoil in the Middle East, you may see a spike in energy prices, but it tends to come down,' he said in response to a question from CNN's Matt Egan. 'Those things don't generally tend to have lasting effects on inflation, although, of course, in the 1970s they famously did because you had a series of very, very large shocks,' Powell added. Among those: The Iranian Revolution, which caused global oil production to fall substantially and then contributed to already-high gas prices as a result of the Arab oil embargo following the Yom Kippur war. Powell seemed assured there isn't a risk of such a scenario this time around, adding that 'the US economy is far less dependent on foreign oil than it was back in the 1970s.' Economists, however, aren't as convinced that the conflict doesn't present a major risk to the US economy. In fact, JPMorgan economists said in a recent note to clients, 'The US and global economies are set to absorb multiple shocks this year.' Chief among those is the potential for a Middle East war, they said. 'One of the world's most important oil chokepoints' 'One of the most direct impacts on US consumers would be if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, leading to a spike in energy costs as the flow of seaborne oil and gas becomes disrupted,' said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. The US Energy Information Administration recently referred to the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, as 'one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.' Last year, the amount of oil that passed through the waterway averaged 20 million barrels per day, it said, which amounts to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. 'Very few alternative options exist to move oil out of the strait if it is closed,' the EIA said in an online article on Monday. Meanwhile, Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the strait as a form of retaliation. That could end up proving to be more limited than what the Iranian government has threatened, though, analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a recent note. 'Iran's leadership is unlikely to fully close the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period; as a first recourse, it is more likely that Iran's naval forces deploy along the Strait and block passage to selected vessels depending on flag and destination.' Even though the US is considered energy independent, gas prices would still 'rocket higher,' Knightley. The tariff shock While tariff-related price hikes that economists widely expect to occur haven't shown up in the all-encompassing inflation reports the US government publishes, most believe it's only a matter of time. As the economy recovered from the pandemic, inflation accelerated across the globe. Then, while that unfolded, the war between Russia and Ukraine took hold, sending gas prices soaring and pushing inflation even higher. That could very well play out again if gas prices shoot higher due to the conflict. 'With tariff-induced price hikes already set to squeeze household spending power, higher gasoline prices would intensify the strain on consumer pockets, risking a more pronounced slowdown in the economy,' Knightley told CNN.
CNBC
18-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
How oil will react if U.S. bombs Iran and other scenarios, according to JPMorgan
U.S. or Israeli military action that leads to regime change in OPEC member Iran would have a profound impact on the global oil market, according to JPMorgan. "If history serves as a guide, further destabilization of Iran could lead to significantly higher oil prices sustained over extended periods," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, told clients in a note published Wednesday. Pressure is mounting on Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as President Donald Trump considers joining Israel's air campaign against the Islamic Republic's nuclear sites. Trump demanded Iran's unconditional surrender on Tuesday, threatening Khamenei's life in a social media post. Israel sought to assassinate Khamenei in the opening days of its military operation, but Trump vetoed the plan, a U.S. official told NBC News. 'Profound impact' Regime change in oil-producing nations such as Iran "can have a profound impact" on the country's oil policy, production and global prices in the short and long term, Kaneva said. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC and exports about 1.6 million barrels of crude per day. Eight major regime changes have occurred in major oil producing countries since 1979, with crude prices spiking about 76% at their peak compared to pre-crisis levels, according to JPMorgan. Oil prices eventually stabilized at levels about 30% higher compared to before the crisis, the bank said. Supply losses in the wake of a regime change "are challenging to recover quickly, further supporting elevated prices," Kaneva said. Oil prices, for example, spiked dramatically in the wake of the 1979 Iranian revolution that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and brought the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power. Iran's crude oil exports plummeted by 4.8 million barrels per day by January 1979, according to JPMorgan. OPEC compensated for some of the lost supply from Iran but prices still rose, more than doubling to $34 per barrel by the middle of 1980 and causing a worldwide economic recession, according to JPMorgan. Today, Iranian crude oil production stands at 3.3 mbd, "significantly below the volumes seen before the revolution" of 1979. Fleeting spike The current spike in oil prices might not last in the absence of major political upheaval in Iran. Oil shocks in response to conflicts involving Israel are usually short lived, with prices returning to fair value fairly quickly, with the exception of the 1973 Yom Kippur war that led to the Arab oil embargo, according to JPMorgan. The risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz is "very low" because the U.S. would consider it an act of war, according to the bank. The U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain across the Persian Gulf from Iran, tasked with protecting commercial shipping, the bank said. About one-fifth of the world's oil passes through the narrow strait between Iran and Oman. The oil market has so far remained relatively calm in response to the current Iran-Israel conflict, with prices gaining about 10% since Israel's air campaign began last Friday.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Dead chickens placed in odd position on ritzy NYC block — sparking ‘animal sacrifice' claims
The chickens didn't cross the road — but still made it to the other side. Two slaughtered chickens were found on an Upper West Side median in an odd position that has activists worried they were killed in an animal sacrifice ritual. The birds were found Saturday lined up with their feet facing at West 89th Street and Broadway less than a year after similar fowl play three blocks away on Broadway and West 92nd Street, local publication West Side Rag reported. '[It] appears to be animal sacrifice to me,' John Di Leonardo, executive director of Humane Long Island, told The Post. 'It's illegal for live slaughter markets to sell live birds to the public but we know they do it often,' he said. 'From Buddhists releasing live animals in Central Park who die if not recovered to birds tied to trees for Santeria in public parks to Shaktis killing pigs near Gateway National Park – to whatever this is.' Edita Birnkrant, of animal advocacy group NYCLASS, said 'it clearly was done purposely and placed in a visible spot. 'They look healthier than the birds usually look at live markets,' she added. 'The nearest live poultry market is in Harlem so I don't know [if] that's the culprit.' By Tuesday, the birds had been removed but not everyone was uneasy about the birds. 'I'm almost kind of glad,' said Harold Steinblatt, a self-described 'frequent bench-sitter' and longtime Upper West Side resident who said the incident sounded 'cultish.' 'That means it's not just all rich hedge fund managers here,' he said. 'Or maybe it was a disgruntled hedge fund manager who was the culprit.' Chickens are the most common sacrifice in the Santeria Afro-Caribbean religion, according to the BBC. The Supreme Court upheld the right to animal sacrifice on religious grounds in 1993 — but according to New York laws, aggravated cruelty to animals is a felony punishable by up to two years in prison. Evidence of sacrificial killings have been reported across the five boroughs, with chickens, pigs and even rats killed in 'twisted' religious rituals in parkland surrounding Jamaica Bay in Queens. In Upper Manhattan, whole dead chickens and cows, as well as fish and eggs, have been found as offerings on crypts at Old Trinity Cemetery, according to Scouting NY. Thousands of chickens are also killed each year in the Big Apple ahead of Yom Kippur during the ultra-orthodox Jewish ritual of Kaporos, which involves slitting a chicken's throat, per ABC New York.
New York Post
27-05-2025
- New York Post
Dead chickens placed in odd position on ritzy NYC block — sparking ‘animal sacrifice' claims
The chickens didn't cross the road — but still made it to the other side. Two slaughtered chickens were found on an Upper West Side median in an odd position that has activists worried they were killed in an animal sacrifice ritual. The birds were found Saturday lined up with their feet facing at West 89th Street and Broadway less than a year after similar fowl play three blocks away on Broadway and West 92nd Street, local publication West Side Rag reported. Advertisement '[It] appears to be animal sacrifice to me,' John Di Leonardo, executive director of Humane Long Island, told The Post. 'It's illegal for live slaughter markets to sell live birds to the public but we know they do it often,' he said. 'From Buddhists releasing live animals in Central Park who die if not recovered to birds tied to trees for Santeria in public parks to Shaktis killing pigs near Gateway National Park – to whatever this is.' Advertisement Edita Birnkrant, of animal advocacy group NYCLASS, said 'it clearly was done purposely and placed in a visible spot. 'They look healthier than the birds usually look at live markets,' she added. 'The nearest live poultry market is in Harlem so I don't know [if] that's the culprit.' A pair of dead chickens were bizarrely found on an Upper West Side curb median on Broadway over the weekend. J.C. Rice Advertisement By Tuesday, the birds had been removed but not everyone was uneasy about the birds. 'I'm almost kind of glad,' said Harold Steinblatt, a self-described 'frequent bench-sitter' and longtime Upper West Side resident who said the incident sounded 'cultish.' 'That means it's not just all rich hedge fund managers here,' he said. 'Or maybe it was a disgruntled hedge fund manager who was the culprit.' Advertisement The dead chickens (not pictured) being found occurred less than a year after another pair were discovered three blocks away, as animal activists believe these are sacrificial killings. Hanoi Photography – Chickens are the most common sacrifice in the Santeria Afro-Caribbean religion, according to the BBC. The Supreme Court upheld the right to animal sacrifice on religious grounds in 1993 — but according to New York laws, aggravated cruelty to animals is a felony punishable by up to two years in prison. Evidence of sacrificial killings have been reported across the five boroughs, with chickens, pigs and even rats killed in 'twisted' religious rituals in parkland surrounding Jamaica Bay in Queens. In Upper Manhattan, whole dead chickens and cows, as well as fish and eggs, have been found as offerings on crypts at Old Trinity Cemetery, according to Scouting NY. Thousands of chickens are also killed each year in the Big Apple ahead of Yom Kippur during the ultra-orthodox Jewish ritual of Kaporos, which involves slitting a chicken's throat, per ABC New York.
