Latest news with #Zandi
Kuwait Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
‘Trump Effect' website claims credit for $2.6tn in new investments
WASHINGTON: Within hours of taking office in January, President Donald Trump boasted about attracting $3 trillion in new corporate investments to the United States. Since then, Trump has said the investments have swelled to $14 trillion, or roughly half of the nation's annual gross domestic product. The White House calls it 'The Trump Effect' and features a rolling list on its website of more than 70 projects it says Trump's economic policies spurred, from a new bakery plant in Texas to a LEGO facility in Virginia and a microchip plant in Arizona. As of July 2, the website listed more than $2.6 trillion in US investments, well short of the $14 trillion Trump boasts about. But a Reuters review found that just under half of the claimed spending on the website - totaling more than $1.3 trillion - originated under former President Joe Biden or represented routine spending repackaged to promote domestic investments. At least eight of the projects touted by the White House had sought or secured critical local incentive packages before Trump took office while at least a half dozen other projects had already been announced by local officials or the companies themselves, Reuters found. Two of the Trump Effect projects were aided by Biden's legislative efforts to boost domestic manufacturing, the review found. One company on the list, Swiss-based Roche, warned that Trump's plans to equalize US and international drug prices now threatens its promised $50 billion in US investments. Asked about taking credit for projects already underway before Trump came into office, the White House said the final investment decisions were announced under his watch and prove his economic policies are triggering US investment. 'President Trump is the greatest closer in modern history, and his leadership and policies are a critical catalyst converting hypothetical discussions into firm investment commitments and ground being broken for new plants and offices,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said. The Reuters review included interviewing local officials and reviewing public records and corporate statements. It was not clear in many cases what role, if any, Trump or his policies played in getting the deals across the line. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said his economic forecast - along with the consensus estimates - for investment in the economy has remained relatively unchanged despite the White House's claims of new historic investments. 'I think despite all the announcements it hasn't translated into any change in expectations,' Zandi said. 'The fundamentals that ultimately drive investment spending, broadly, if anything, appear to have weakened since the start of the year.' Trump's push to impose sweeping tariffs on dozens of trading partners has injected uncertainty into global markets, lowering economic projections and freezing investment decisions, Zandi said. Trump's supporters say his policies of deregulation combined with the extension of his corporate tax cuts last week have stoked interest from companies that will be converted into actual investments in the months ahead. 'I think you're going to see a lot more investment later this year, and certainly into next year,' Richard Stern, director of economic and budget policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said. The Trump Effect list is not exhaustive, according to the White House, and does not include the foreign deals the administration says Trump secured during his Middle East tour in May. The White House did not respond to a Reuters request to provide a breakdown of the $14 trillion in US investments Trump claims he has attracted. Trump wouldn't be the first president to inflate or embellish economic activity on his watch. But the onetime businessman has made his dealmaking the centerpiece of his political persona, promising his presidency would ignite a manufacturing renaissance that would bring jobs back to the US. Some companies, largely in the pharmaceutical industry, repackaged existing spending that was later touted as new investment by Trump. The pharmaceutical companies also credited Trump's 2017 tax cuts for spurring domestic investment. — Reuters
Qatar Tribune
08-07-2025
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Trump Effect website claims credit for $2.6 trillion in new investments
Agencies Within hours of taking office in January, President Donald Trump boasted about attracting $3 trillion in new corporate investments to the United States. Since then, Trump has said the investments have swelled to $14 trillion, or roughly half of the nation's annual gross domestic product. The White House calls it 'The Trump Effect' and features a rolling list on its website of more than 70 projects it says Trump's economic policies spurred, from a new bakery plant in Texas to a LEGO facility in Virginia and a microchip plant in Arizona. As of July 2, the website listed more than $2.6 trillion in US investments, well short of the $14 trillion Trump boasts about. But a Reuters review found that just under half of the claimed spending on the website - totaling more than $1.3 trillion - originated under former President Joe Biden or represented routine spending repackaged to promote domestic investments. At least eight of the projects touted by the White House had sought or secured critical local incentive packages before Trump took office while at least a half dozen other projects had already been announced by local officials or the companies themselves, Reuters found. Two of the Trump Effect projects were aided by Biden's legislative efforts to boost domestic manufacturing, the review found. One company on the list, Swiss-based Roche, warned that Trump's plans to equalize US and international drug prices now threatens its promised $50 billion in US investments. Asked about taking credit for projects already underway before Trump came into office, the White House said the final investment decisions were announced under his watch and prove his economic policies are triggering US investment. 'President Trump is the greatest closer in modern history, and his leadership and policies are a critical catalyst converting hypothetical discussions into firm investment commitments and ground being broken for new plants and offices,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said. The Reuters review included interviewing local officials and reviewing public records and corporate statements. It was not clear in many cases what role, if any, Trump or his policies played in getting the deals across the line. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said his economic forecast - along with the consensus estimates - for investment in the economy has remained relatively unchanged despite the White House's claims of new historic investments. 'I think despite all the announcements it hasn't translated into any change in expectations,' Zandi said. 'The fundamentals that ultimately drive investment spending, broadly, if anything, appear to have weakened since the start of the year.' Trump's push to impose sweeping tariffs on dozens of trading partners has injected uncertainty into global markets, lowering economic projections and freezing investment decisions, Zandi said.
USA Today
08-07-2025
- Business
- USA Today
'Trump Effect' website takes credit for US investment made under Biden
July 8 (Reuters) - Within hours of taking office in January, President Donald Trump boasted about attracting $3 trillion in new corporate investments to the United States. Since then, Trump has said the investments have swelled to $14 trillion, or roughly half of the nation's annual gross domestic product. The White House calls it "The Trump Effect" and features a rolling list on its website of more than 70 projects it says Trump's economic policies spurred, from a new bakery plant in Texas to a LEGO facility in Virginia and a microchip plant in Arizona. As of July 2, the website listed more than $2.6 trillion in U.S. investments, well short of the $14 trillion Trump boasts about. But a Reuters review found that just under half of the claimed spending on the website - totaling more than $1.3 trillion - originated under former President Joe Biden or represented routine spending repackaged to promote domestic investments. At least eight of the projects touted by the White House had sought or secured critical local incentive packages before Trump took office while at least a half dozen other projects had already been announced by local officials or the companies themselves, Reuters found. Two of the Trump Effect projects were aided by Biden's legislative efforts to boost domestic manufacturing, the review found. One company on the list, Swiss-based Roche, warned that Trump's plans to equalize U.S. and international drug prices now threatens its promised $50 billion in U.S. investments. Asked about taking credit for projects already underway before Trump came into office, the White House said the final investment decisions were announced under his watch and prove his economic policies are triggering U.S. investment. 'President Trump is the greatest closer in modern history, and his leadership and policies are a critical catalyst converting hypothetical discussions into firm investment commitments and ground being broken for new plants and offices," White House spokesman Kush Desai said. The Reuters review included interviewing local officials and reviewing public records and corporate statements. It was not clear in many cases what role, if any, Trump or his policies played in getting the deals across the line. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said his economic forecast - along with the consensus estimates - for investment in the economy has remained relatively unchanged despite the White House's claims of new historic investments. "I think despite all the announcements it hasn't translated into any change in expectations," Zandi said. "The fundamentals that ultimately drive investment spending, broadly, if anything, appear to have weakened since the start of the year." Trump's push to impose sweeping tariffs on dozens of trading partners has injected uncertainty into global markets, lowering economic projections and freezing investment decisions, Zandi said. Trump's supporters say his policies of deregulation combined with the extension of his corporate tax cuts last week have stoked interest from companies that will be converted into actual investments in the months ahead. "I think you're going to see a lot more investment later this year, and certainly into next year," Richard Stern, director of economic and budget policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said. THE TRUMP EFFECT The Trump Effect list is not exhaustive, according to the White House, and does not include the foreign deals the administration says Trump secured during his Middle East tour in May. The White House did not respond to a Reuters request to provide a breakdown of the $14 trillion in U.S. investments Trump claims he has attracted. Trump wouldn't be the first president to inflate or embellish economic activity on his watch. But the onetime businessman has made his dealmaking the centerpiece of his political persona, promising his presidency would ignite a manufacturing renaissance that would bring jobs back to the U.S. Some companies, largely in the pharmaceutical industry, repackaged existing spending that was later touted as new investment by Trump. The pharmaceutical companies also credited Trump's 2017 tax cuts for spurring domestic investment. Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks created the blueprint, said James Shin, a pharmaceutical analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities. Ricks joined top administration officials in February to announce $27 billion in new U.S. investments over five years. The figure drew praise from Trump who said it's evidence his tariffs were working to spur domestic manufacturing, but the figure represented a slight increase over the $23 million the company spent in the U.S. since 2020. "Everyone saw that Donald Trump gave David Ricks blessings every time he spoke," Shin said. "I think Lilly was quite shrewd in its timing and in its messaging." An Eli Lilly spokesperson did not address Reuters questions about the company's incremental increase in spending and what role Trump played, if any, in its announcement. CLAIMING CREDIT Here's a sampling of the projects included on the White House's Trump Effect website that Reuters found had been announced or were already in the pipeline prior to Trump's presidency: Hyundai: The South Korean carmaker was added to the Trump Effect list after announcing a $5.8 billion new Louisiana steel plant in March. But the company selected the Louisiana site in December 2024 after conducting a nationwide search, according to a state official. Hyundai did not respond to a request for comment, Corning: The global materials science company was added to the list after a $1.5 billion investment in Michigan was highlighted in an April press release. But the figure includes $900 million in funding announced in February of last year for the plant, and the project has benefited from federal tax credits under the CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan measure passed under Biden that incentivizes domestic production, the company confirmed to Reuters. Trump has called for Congress to claw back the chips funding, calling the legislation a "horrible, horrible thing." The company would not say whether Trump had any direct connection to the investment. LEGO: The iconic toy manufacturer announced a new $366 million distribution center in Virginia in May and was added to the Trump website. The company began working with Virginia on a package of state and local incentives in 2022, roughly three years before Trump took office, according to Pryor Green, the Virginia economic development spokesperson. The company did not respond to request for comment. Clasen Quality Chocolate: The candy company announced a new $230 million production facility in Virginia in February and was added to Trump's website. But the Virginia Economic Development Partnership began working with the company roughly seven months before Trump took office, and Governor Glenn Youngkin approved a $3 million grant for the project on December 3, Green told Reuters. The company did not respond to a request for comment. Chobani: The White House added the yogurt maker to its list after the company in April announced a $1.2 billion production plant in New York. But Chobani, which did not respond to a request for comment, had reached out to the state in May of last year about the project, state records show, and benefited from a state program that lures companies with shovel-ready sites. LOCAL INCENTIVES Some other deals touted by Trump were either struck before he took office, spurred by state and local incentive packages or represent routine capital investment, the Reuters review found. Pharmaceutical companies Merck and Johnson & Johnson both announced billions of dollars in U.S. investments that included projects that were previously announced and already under construction, according to a review of company statements. The White House list included $2 billion in Merck projects already underway in North Carolina and Delaware and a $2 billion North Carolina project under construction by Johnson & Johnson, statements show. Johnson & Johnson did not respond to a request for comment, and Merck did not address Reuters' questions about Trump's role in its investment decisions. Many of the projects on the list relied heavily on state and local incentive packages - such as grants or tax breaks - that were approved prior to Trump taking office in January, Reuters found. States typically compete against one another for company investments, using incentive packages as bait. The locally-backed projects on the Trump Effect list include Diageo, a British alcoholic beverage company, whose $415 million new Alabama plant was aided by state and local tax incentives that date back to 2022, roughly three years before Trump took office, according to Stefania Jones, an Alabama Department of Commerce spokesperson. Diageo did not respond to requests for comment. Ireland-based power management company Eaton Corporation, French ceramics manufacturer Saint-Gobain and South Korean baker Paris Baguette, for example, were all highlighted on the Trump Effect list, but records and interviews show they all secured local incentive packages before Trump took office. The companies did not respond to requests for comment. TECH INVESTMENTS In some cases, the investment touted by the White House and the companies represented the normal cost of business. Apple CEO Tim Cook announced in February that his iconic company was going to invest $500 billion over five years to hire 20,000 workers and build new AI servers. Trump seized on the announcement, saying on his Truth Social media platform that it showed "faith in what we are doing." However, Apple's announced figure is in line with what one might expect the company to be spending anyway, given its financials, according to three analysts. "For Apple, most of this would have happened regardless of who's president," said Dan Ives, a senior equity analyst with Wedbush Securities. It also echoes previous commitments. Four years ago, a few months after Biden's inauguration, Apple announced an 'acceleration' of its U.S. investments, pledging to spend $430 billion and add 20,000 jobs over five years. In January 2018, during Trump's first term, the company said that its 'direct contribution to the U.S. economy' would be $350 billion over five years and that it planned to create 20,000 jobs over that period. Another pledge to spend $500 billion for new data centers to power artificial intelligence programs dubbed "Stargate" came from ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, Japanese conglomerate SoftBank and business software giant Oracle, whose executives joined Trump in the White House on his first full day as president in January to make the announcement. The companies said they planned to spend $100 billion 'immediately' but that they were still in negotiations with various states about where to place the new data centers. 'As announced in January, Stargate remains fully committed to investing up to $500 billion over the next four years to build AI infrastructure in the United States," SoftBank and OpenAI said in a joint statement to Reuters. Oracle did not respond to a request for comment. (Reporting by Jarrett RenshawEditing by Colleen Jenkins and Michael Learmonth)
Time of India
08-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
'Trump Effect' website takes credit for US investment made under Biden
Within hours of taking office in January, President Donald Trump boasted about attracting $3 trillion in new corporate investments to the United States. Since then, Trump has said the investments have swelled to $14 trillion, or roughly half of the nation's annual gross domestic product. The White House calls it "The Trump Effect " and features a rolling list on its website of more than 70 projects it says Trump's economic policies spurred, from a new bakery plant in Texas to a LEGO facility in Virginia and a microchip plant in Arizona. As of July 2, the website listed more than $2.6 trillion in U.S. investments, well short of the $14 trillion Trump boasts about. But a Reuters review found that just under half of the claimed spending on the website - totaling more than $1.3 trillion - originated under former President Joe Biden or represented routine spending repackaged to promote domestic investments. At least eight of the projects touted by the White House had sought or secured critical local incentive packages before Trump took office while at least a half dozen other projects had already been announced by local officials or the companies themselves, Reuters found. Two of the Trump Effect projects were aided by Biden's legislative efforts to boost domestic manufacturing, the review found. One company on the list, Swiss-based Roche , warned that Trump's plans to equalize U.S. and international drug prices now threatens its promised $50 billion in U.S. investments. Live Events Asked about taking credit for projects already underway before Trump came into office, the White House said the final investment decisions were announced under his watch and prove his economic policies are triggering U.S. investment. "President Trump is the greatest closer in modern history, and his leadership and policies are a critical catalyst converting hypothetical discussions into firm investment commitments and ground being broken for new plants and offices," White House spokesman Kush Desai said. The Reuters review included interviewing local officials and reviewing public records and corporate statements. It was not clear in many cases what role, if any, Trump or his policies played in getting the deals across the line. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said his economic forecast - along with the consensus estimates - for investment in the economy has remained relatively unchanged despite the White House's claims of new historic investments. "I think despite all the announcements it hasn't translated into any change in expectations," Zandi said. "The fundamentals that ultimately drive investment spending, broadly, if anything, appear to have weakened since the start of the year." Trump's push to impose sweeping tariffs on dozens of trading partners has injected uncertainty into global markets, lowering economic projections and freezing investment decisions, Zandi said. Trump's supporters say his policies of deregulation combined with the extension of his corporate tax cuts last week have stoked interest from companies that will be converted into actual investments in the months ahead. "I think you're going to see a lot more investment later this year, and certainly into next year," Richard Stern, director of economic and budget policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said. THE TRUMP EFFECT The Trump Effect list is not exhaustive, according to the White House, and does not include the foreign deals the administration says Trump secured during his Middle East tour in May. The White House did not respond to a Reuters request to provide a breakdown of the $14 trillion in U.S. investments Trump claims he has attracted. Trump wouldn't be the first president to inflate or embellish economic activity on his watch. But the onetime businessman has made his dealmaking the centerpiece of his political persona, promising his presidency would ignite a manufacturing renaissance that would bring jobs back to the U.S. Some companies, largely in the pharmaceutical industry, repackaged existing spending that was later touted as new investment by Trump. The pharmaceutical companies also credited Trump's 2017 tax cuts for spurring domestic investment. Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks created the blueprint, said James Shin, a pharmaceutical analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities. Ricks joined top administration officials in February to announce $27 billion in new U.S. investments over five years. The figure drew praise from Trump who said it's evidence his tariffs were working to spur domestic manufacturing, but the figure represented a slight increase over the $23 million the company spent in the U.S. since 2020. "Everyone saw that Donald Trump gave David Ricks blessings every time he spoke," Shin said. "I think Lilly was quite shrewd in its timing and in its messaging." An Eli Lilly spokesperson did not address Reuters questions about the company's incremental increase in spending and what role Trump played, if any, in its announcement. CLAIMING CREDIT Here's a sampling of the projects included on the White House's Trump Effect website that Reuters found had been announced or were already in the pipeline prior to Trump's presidency: Hyundai: The South Korean carmaker was added to the Trump Effect list after announcing a $5.8 billion new Louisiana steel plant in March. But the company selected the Louisiana site in December 2024 after conducting a nationwide search, according to a state official. Hyundai did not respond to a request for comment, Corning: The global materials science company was added to the list after a $1.5 billion investment in Michigan was highlighted in an April press release. But the figure includes $900 million in funding announced in February of last year for the plant, and the project has benefited from federal tax credits under the CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan measure passed under Biden that incentivizes domestic production, the company confirmed to Reuters. Trump has called for Congress to claw back the chips funding, calling the legislation a "horrible, horrible thing." The company would not say whether Trump had any direct connection to the investment. LEGO: The iconic toy manufacturer announced a new $366 million distribution center in Virginia in May and was added to the Trump website. The company began working with Virginia on a package of state and local incentives in 2022, roughly three years before Trump took office, according to Pryor Green, the Virginia economic development spokesperson. The company did not respond to request for comment. Clasen Quality Chocolate: The candy company announced a new $230 million production facility in Virginia in February and was added to Trump's website. But the Virginia Economic Development Partnership began working with the company roughly seven months before Trump took office, and Governor Glenn Youngkin approved a $3 million grant for the project on December 3, Green told Reuters. The company did not respond to a request for comment. Chobani: The White House added the yogurt maker to its list after the company in April announced a $1.2 billion production plant in New York. But Chobani, which did not respond to a request for comment, had reached out to the state in May of last year about the project, state records show, and benefited from a state program that lures companies with shovel-ready sites. LOCAL INCENTIVES Some other deals touted by Trump were either struck before he took office, spurred by state and local incentive packages or represent routine capital investment, the Reuters review found. Pharmaceutical companies Merck and Johnson & Johnson both announced billions of dollars in U.S. investments that included projects that were previously announced and already under construction, according to a review of company statements. The White House list included $2 billion in Merck projects already underway in North Carolina and Delaware and a $2 billion North Carolina project under construction by Johnson & Johnson, statements show. Johnson & Johnson did not respond to a request for comment, and Merck did not address Reuters' questions about Trump's role in its investment decisions. Many of the projects on the list relied heavily on state and local incentive packages - such as grants or tax breaks - that were approved prior to Trump taking office in January, Reuters found. States typically compete against one another for company investments, using incentive packages as bait. The locally-backed projects on the Trump Effect list include Diageo, a British alcoholic beverage company, whose $415 million new Alabama plant was aided by state and local tax incentives that date back to 2022, roughly three years before Trump took office, according to Stefania Jones , an Alabama Department of Commerce spokesperson. Diageo did not respond to requests for comment. Ireland-based power management company Eaton Corporation, French ceramics manufacturer Saint-Gobain and South Korean baker Paris Baguette, for example, were all highlighted on the Trump Effect list, but records and interviews show they all secured local incentive packages before Trump took office. The companies did not respond to requests for comment. TECH INVESTMENTS In some cases, the investment touted by the White House and the companies represented the normal cost of business. Apple CEO Tim Cook announced in February that his iconic company was going to invest $500 billion over five years to hire 20,000 workers and build new AI servers. Trump seized on the announcement, saying on his Truth Social media platform that it showed "faith in what we are doing." However, Apple's announced figure is in line with what one might expect the company to be spending anyway, given its financials, according to three analysts. "For Apple, most of this would have happened regardless of who's president," said Dan Ives, a senior equity analyst with Wedbush Securities . It also echoes previous commitments. Four years ago, a few months after Biden's inauguration, Apple announced an "acceleration" of its U.S. investments, pledging to spend $430 billion and add 20,000 jobs over five years. In January 2018, during Trump's first term, the company said that its "direct contribution to the U.S. economy" would be $350 billion over five years and that it planned to create 20,000 jobs over that period. Another pledge to spend $500 billion for new data centers to power artificial intelligence programs dubbed "Stargate" came from ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, Japanese conglomerate SoftBank and business software giant Oracle , whose executives joined Trump in the White House on his first full day as president in January to make the announcement. The companies said they planned to spend $100 billion "immediately" but that they were still in negotiations with various states about where to place the new data centers. "As announced in January, Stargate remains fully committed to investing up to $500 billion over the next four years to build AI infrastructure in the United States," SoftBank and OpenAI said in a joint statement to Reuters. Oracle did not respond to a request for comment.
CNBC
11-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2025 — in one chart
The annual inflation rate increased slightly in May as an uptick in grocery inflation somewhat offset lower prices at the gasoline pump. And while inflation was relatively tame, economists said they expect President Trump's tariff policy to raise consumer prices in coming months — and that there was already some evidence of their impact. The consumer price index, an inflation barometer, rose 2.4% in the 12 months through May, up from 2.3% in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. That increase to the annual inflation rate was largely due to a data quirk called "base effects," economists said. (Basically, inflation one year prior, in May 2024, was unusually low, making the May 2025 numbers look high by comparison.) The monthly inflation rate paints a rosier picture and gives a better indicator of underlying trends, economists said: CPI increased 0.1% from April to May, down from 0.2% the prior month, the BLS said. A consistent monthly rate around 0.2% would generally be adequate to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's long-term target, economists said. "It was a very good report," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. "Basically, it says inflation has finally gotten back to the Federal Reserve's annual inflation target." However, tariffs President Trump levied on many countries and products will likely start to show up noticeably into the summer and fall, he said. "I think it's the calm before the inflation storm," Zandi said. "This [report] still reflects the disinflation that began a few years ago and continued on through the month of May." That said, tariffs already had some impact on consumer prices in May, economists said. For one, gasoline prices fell almost 3% from April to May, according to the BLS. They're down 12% from a year ago, it said. This is largely the result of falling oil prices, which reflect concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth due to tariffs, said Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. Lower energy prices filter down to the gasoline pump and lower household bills, he said. Lower oil prices also feed through more broadly to reduced costs for transportation, in categories like airline fares, Zandi said. Airfare fell about 3% from April to May and is down 7% for the year, the BLS said. Grocery prices were a sticking point in May, though, economists said. Inflation for food at home rose by 0.3% for the month, after having deflated 0.4% the prior month. Food prices give "a little bit of a queasy feeling," Zandi said. It's one of the categories he's most concerned about, he said. Healing supply chains and a weakening of the labor market are factors that have helped rein in U.S. inflation broadly, said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Data indicate consumers are continuing to spend money and haven't shown much reluctance to accept higher prices, House said. "The consumer hasn't buckled yet," she said. Housing inflation has also moderated, an important element since the category is the largest component of the consumer price index, economists said. Indeed, monthly inflation for rent and "owners' equivalent rent" (a rent measure applied to homeowners) have "returned to their pre-pandemic norms," Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note Wednesday. These trends together signaled "a steady downtrend in inflation" back to the Fed's long-term target at least by the end of this year or early next year, Oxford Economics' Yaros said. Tariffs complicate that narrative, economists said. "The disinflationary trend we've been seeing in fits and starts is at risk of stalling out again," House said. President Trump has levied a barrage of import duties since his inauguration in January. Federal data show the effective tariff rate in April was about 6% — and is likely to increase — relative to 2% at end of 2024, House said. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the average U.S. household would pay about $2,500 more in 2025 due to tariff policy in effect as of June 1. A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that some tariffs can remain in effect while it reviews a lower court's decision to block them. They include a 10% across-the-board tariff on most U.S. trading partners, and additional levies on Mexico, Canada and China tied to alleged fentanyl trafficking. There are also additional tariffs on specific products, like a 50% duty on steel and aluminum imports and a 25% levy on imported vehicles and car parts. China also faces additional levies on exports to the U.S., though officials from the nations said Tuesday that they'd made inroads in trade talks. More from Personal Finance:What's happening with unemployed Americans — in five chartsThe economic cost of Trump, Harvard battle over student visasHow investors have performed amid Trump market volatility Thus far, CPI data "highlight that tariff-related price hikes are barely feeding through to consumers," wrote Brown of Capital Economics. Economists said they expect that to change in coming months. Businesses may have been able to shield some price increases from consumers by building up inventories of foreign goods before tariffs kicked in, economists said. That would mean they purchased their current stock of goods at a non-tariffed price — but that stockpile won't last forever, economists said. There were some early signs of tariff impacts in the May CPI report for people "looking through a microscope," Brown wrote. For example, major appliance prices jumped 4.3% for the month, and toy prices by 2.2%, he wrote, citing CPI data. "Unless all retailers are raising prices at the same time, it may trickle not flood into the data," Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, wrote Wednesday.
