Latest news with #ZhangZhiwei
South China Morning Post
3 days ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China's factory activity rebounds in June as US trade tensions ease
But analysts warn the Chinese economy could face greater headwinds in the second half of 2025 Factory activity in China edged upwards in June but stayed in contractionary territory for a third straight month, as the country battles soft demand and the effects of a trade war with the United States. China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) – a gauge of manufacturing activity – rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May and 49.0 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. Scores above 50 indicate growth in manufacturing while readings under 50 suggest a contraction. The improved results came after Beijing and Washington took steps to de-escalate their unprecedented tariff war in mid-May, with analysts noting that China's vast export sector appeared to have regained some momentum. The new orders sub-index rose to 50.2 in June from 49.8 in May, 'indicating that manufacturing market demand has improved', the bureau said. A sub-index for new export orders rose to 47.7 from 47.5 the previous month. 'The economic momentum is stable due to strong exports. High-frequency data suggests that exports may have strengthened in recent weeks,' said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Zhang added that Beijing was likely to hold off on implementing more supportive monetary policy changes due to the uptick. 'The policymakers will likely wait and monitor the development of the trade war,' he said, noting that a meeting of China's Politburo scheduled for July would shed further light on how the country's leaders are feeling about the state of the economy. Newsletter Every Saturday SCMP Global Impact By submitting, you consent to receiving marketing emails from SCMP. If you don't want these, tick here {{message}} Thanks for signing up for our newsletter! Please check your email to confirm your subscription. Follow us on Facebook to get our latest news. China's exports have so far shown resilience in the face of the US trade war, with front-loading and strong growth in shipments to alternative markets helping to offset a decline in demand from America. But the world's second-largest economy is also battling several other headwinds, including a prolonged property market downturn and persistent deflationary pressure. The non-manufacturing commercial activity PMI, which includes services and construction, rose to 50.5 in June from 50.3 the previous month, according to the bureau. Despite the recent rebound in manufacturing and construction, research firm Capital Economics said it remained 'cautious about the outlook' for China's economy, as 'weaker export growth and a fading fiscal tailwind is likely to slow activity in the second half of the year'. Another index, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, is expected to report a reading on Tuesday in what would be a 'delayed response' to the US-China tariff reduction announced in mid-May, Goldman Sachs said in a research note issued before Monday's data release. The Caixin PMI focuses on smaller, export-oriented, and private firms. After raising import levies past a prohibitively high 100 per cent in April, China and the US brought the duties down through negotiations in mid-May and reached an agreement on export controls last week. China's industrial profits fell by more than 9 per cent in May compared with the same month in 2024, according to data released on Friday, reflecting in part what analysts called shocks from the US-China tariff dispute.
South China Morning Post
3 days ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China's factory activity rebounds in June as US trade tensions ease
Factory activity in China edged upwards in June but stayed in contractionary territory for a third straight month, as the country battles soft demand and the effects of a trade war with the United States. China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) – a gauge of manufacturing activity – rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May and 49.0 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. Scores above 50 indicate growth in manufacturing while readings under 50 suggest a contraction. The improved results came after Beijing and Washington took steps to de-escalate their unprecedented tariff war in mid-May, with analysts noting that China's vast export sector appeared to have regained some momentum. The new orders sub-index rose to 50.2 in June from 49.8 in May, 'indicating that manufacturing market demand has improved', the bureau said. A sub-index for new export orders rose to 47.7 from 47.5 the previous month. 'The economic momentum is stable due to strong exports. High-frequency data suggests that exports may have strengthened in recent weeks,' said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Zhang added that Beijing was likely to hold off on implementing more supportive monetary policy changes due to the uptick. 'The policymakers will likely wait and monitor the development of the trade war,' he said, noting that a meeting of China's Politburo scheduled for July would shed further light on how the country's leaders are feeling about the state of the economy.
South China Morning Post
27-05-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China's industrial profits grow in April despite US trade war
China's large industrial enterprises posted modest but accelerating growth in April, despite an unprecedented trade war with the United States that drove up tariffs on both sides and intensified economic uncertainty. Industrial profits among larger firms, with an annual income of 20 million yuan ($US2.78 million) or above generated from their main businesses, recorded a 3 per cent year-on-year increase last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Tuesday, up from 2.6 per cent year-on-year growth in March. For the first four months of the year, industrial profits recorded 1.4 per cent growth – with private enterprises posting the highest growth rate while profits for state-owned enterprises declined. Zhang Zhiwei, president of Pinpoint Asset Management, said it was the second consecutive month that industrial profits grew and that the trend aligned with other data points for April such as China's improved export figures. Industrial profit growth would likely remain positive through the first half of the year but the picture for the second half was blurred, he added. 'The uncertainty is very high because the trade relationship between China and the US is not very clear.' The April data was the first indicator of the health of China's industrial profits since its escalating tariff war with the US – before the two countries agreed to a 90-day trade truce on May 14.
South China Morning Post
03-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
The US is about to hit China with yet more tariffs. How will Beijing respond?
China may introduce a round of retaliatory tariffs against the United States if Washington follows through on threats to raise duties on Chinese imports by another 10 per cent, Goldman Sachs has predicted. Advertisement Meanwhile, Beijing is likely to supplement the tit-for-tat duties with a broader mix of economic measures to protect its exporters from the latest round of US tariffs, which are due to go into effect on Tuesday, analysts told the Post. US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that his administration would hike tariffs on all Chinese imports by a further 10 per cent, following a similar move last month, due to what he calls China's failure to prevent ingredients needed to make the illegal drug fentanyl from reaching America. Beijing may decide to expand last year's economic stimulus policies to help Chinese exporters deal with the fallout, said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist with Pinpoint Asset Management in Hong Kong. Chinese lawmakers may raise the 2025 fiscal deficit to 4 per cent during this week's 'two sessions' , one of China's most important political gatherings of the year, Zhang predicted. The deficit could be revised upwards again later to allow for increased government spending if needed, he added. Advertisement Beijing will also 'selectively increase tariffs on US imports', said Dong Jinyue, principal economist at the Spanish financial services company BBVA.
South China Morning Post
18-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Hong Kong stocks advance as Beijing's support spurs bets on tech rally
Hong Kong stocks rose to the highest in more than four months after Beijing delivered its strongest endorsement of the private sector, fuelling bets on further gains in this year's tech rally following DeepSeek's breakthrough. The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.7 per cent to 22,774.46 at 10.14am local time on Tuesday, a level not seen since October 7. The Tech Index gained 0.8 per cent. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the biggest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, slipped 0.2 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.3 per cent. Smartphone maker Xiaomi rallied 4.9 per cent to HK$47.25 and carmaker BYD advanced 2.6 per cent to HK$365. E-commerce leader Alibaba Group Holding rose 1.7 per cent to HK$124.40 and WeChat operator Tencent Holdings added 0.9 per cent to HK$498. Top lender HSBC gained 1.5 per cent to HK$86.80 before its earnings report on Wednesday. President Xi Jinping urged tech entrepreneurs to contribute more to innovation amid an intensifying rivalry with the US, according to a readout released by state-run Xinhua News Agency. He also promised more protection for entrepreneurial interests and wider market access for them, in the first public meeting between the top leader and the private sector since 2018. 'It is a clear signal that the government would like to encourage the private sector to play a more important role in tech innovation,' said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in Hong Kong. The top-level meeting, if conducted regularly, would facilitate mutual understanding and boost confidence in the economy, he added. Global investment banks have turned bullish on Chinese stocks since the success of DeepSeek's cost-effective AI model earlier this year, prompting a re-rating of Chinese tech companies. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its 12-month targets for Chinese stocks, saying faster AI adoption would fuel corporate earnings and fund inflows.
