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The Diplomat
30-06-2025
- Business
- The Diplomat
Not Just Shock Absorbers: How ASEAN Is Shaping the China Trade Balance
Even as China turns to the region to manage overcapacity and geopolitical headwinds, Southeast Asia will continue to shape trade on its own terms. Leaders from China and Southeast Asian nations pose for a photo during the 27th ASEAN-China Summit in Vientiane, Laos, October 10, 2024. China's recent manufacturing resurgence – dubbed the 'Second China Shock' — has prompted fears of deindustrialization across Southeast Asia. Writing in The Straits Times last month, Ravi Velloor argued that China's dominance in sectors from textiles to EVs threatens ASEAN industries, reviving calls to revisit the assurances made by former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji upon the signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Yet framing Southeast Asia as a victim , as the term 'shock' implies , reflects both a misunderstanding of the region's historical autonomy and strategic agency and a misreading of China's intent. Complementarity, Not Exploitation China's trade with the region has historically been asymmetrical but stable, built on complementary strengths rather than competitive overlap. In 'The Nanhai Trade: The Early History of Chinese Trade in the South China Sea,' the historian Wang Gungwu's traces this dynamic from the Han dynasty (211 BCE) to the founding of the Song dynasty in 960 CE, highlighting both the imperial attitudes towards the region and the economic foundations of maritime commerce. Then and after, Southeast Asian kingdoms such as Srivijaya and Ayutthaya exported spices, rice, metals, and timber to China in exchange for ceramics, textiles, and manufactured goods. The modern iteration of this relationship is governed by a more institutional framework. In 2009, China overtook Japan as ASEAN's largest trading partner. Today, annual China-ASEAN trade is projected to reach $1 trillion, surpassing the combined trade volumes of the United States and the European Union with China, and making ASEAN China's largest trading partner too. These new dynamics shed light on the nature of China's trade surplus with Southeast Asia, which extends beyond conventional narratives of high-tech dominance or state-induced overcapacity. Pop Mart's soft toy, Labubu, for instance, illustrates China's expanding strength in IP-driven consumer goods, where value is derived from design, branding, and emotional appeal. Southeast Asia has emerged as the company's largest and fastest-growing international market, with revenue in the region rising 619 percent year-on-year to $336 million, nearly half of Pop Mart's overseas earnings. ASEAN Shaping Engagement Clearly, in recent years the nature of China-ASEAN trade has evolved, driven by the rising value of China's intermediate and finished goods relative to Southeast Asia's commodity exports. This shift, combined with the region's growing middle class and purchasing power, has contributed to a widening trade imbalance. Yet governments across Southeast Asia have increasingly learned to use access to their fast-growing markets as strategic leverage, positioning themselves not simply as recipients of investment and exports but as active participants capable of demanding reciprocity and shaping the terms of engagement. The clearest example of this strategic posture can be seen in the defense sector, one of the most politically sensitive domains. In 2024, Thailand opted for Sweden's SAAB Gripen fighter jet over a U.S. bid, securing not just a fighter platform but full operational control of its Link-T datalink and a 144 percent return on investment via industrial offsets. Indonesia followed suit in 2025 with its commitment to purchase 48 KAAN fifth-generation fighter jets from Turkey, securing terms for local assembly and capability transfer. ASEAN states are replicating similar leverage in civilian sectors by using market access to drive industrial upgrading through local content mandates, technology transfer, and IP enforcement. Thailand now requires electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers benefiting from government tax incentives to produce core components – such as electric motors, reducers, and inverters – locally by 2026. This local content policy has prompted major Chinese automakers, including BYD and Changan, to commit to sourcing more of their EV components from Thai suppliers. The policy is expected to boost Thailand's national EV output by 40 percent in 2025. In parallel, Vietnam has revised its 2025 feed-in tariff system for solar power to favor projects that use locally produced battery storage and polysilicon. The new tariffs provide higher rates to solar projects that meet minimum local content requirements for batteries and polysilicon, aiming to reduce Vietnam's dependence on (mostly Chinese) imports and to advance the country's position in the solar value chain. Furthermore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other ASEAN governments have imposed a series of tariffs and trade barriers targeting Chinese goods to protect local industries from being overwhelmed by subsidized, low-priced imports. Malaysia has levied anti-dumping duties ranging from 4.48 to 20.42 percent on certain Chinese steel products and is considering broader measures to shield domestic manufacturers. Indonesia, facing a surge of cheap Chinese imports that threaten its small and medium-sized enterprises, has announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 200 percent on a range of Chinese products, including textiles, footwear, ceramics, and cosmetics. Both Vietnam and Indonesia have also launched anti-dumping investigations and duties on various Chinese goods to counteract unfair trade practices. Beyond tariffs, governments are also taking action against Chinese e-commerce platforms. Indonesia, for example, has blocked the Chinese online marketplace Temu, citing concerns over the impact on local micro, small, and medium enterprises and regulatory non-compliance. These moves reflect a broader trend across ASEAN to tighten enforcement, strengthen trade defense mechanisms, and safeguard domestic industries in the face of mounting Chinese overcapacity and aggressive export strategies. As global scrutiny of Chinese exports intensifies, ASEAN is increasingly strengthening its own trade defenses, demonstrating it is far from a passive absorber of the 'Second China Shock'; they are actively shaping the terms of engagement, an approach that in fact aligns with China's own strategic interests. China's Interest in ASEAN's Success Global trends are making reliance on single-source manufacturing untenable. According to McKinsey's 2025 survey of 400 Chinese export firms, 58 percent now use a 'China+1' strategy, with ASEAN as the leading secondary production base. Overcapacity is another driver: Factory utilization rates for China's EVs have fallen below 50 percent (a significant gap from the 80 percent breakeven point), and its solar panel industry faces declining margins due to global oversaturation. Exporting this surplus into politically neutral, fast-growing ASEAN markets is a growing strategic necessity. Finally, amid rising geopolitical pressure, China sees stable ties with ASEAN as a hedge against regional isolation. The 2024 CAFTA upgrade and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership underscore Beijing's commitment to trade frameworks that bolster ASEAN's role in global supply chains – and its value to China. What most threatens ASEAN-China interdependence today is not economic logic, but growing domestic political pressure. In both regions, public opinion is increasingly shaping the boundaries of foreign policy. As such, managing ASEAN-China ties requires mutual recognition of domestic political realities and the cultivation of political capital to sustain the relationship over the longer term. This is why narratives like the 'Second China Shock,' which suggest ASEAN passivity or acquiescence, should be reconsidered. The shock, if it exists, may be real – but so is ASEAN's capacity to respond on its own terms.
Straits Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Beijing and Asean need to discuss ‘Second China Shock'
China's latest manufacturing surge, which some have begun to call the Second China Shock, may sound ominous as a label but is actually a tip of the hat to the mainland. PHOTO: AFP More than two decades ago, when China initiated the Early Harvest Programme with Asean to give South-east Asian countries more confidence to endorse the Asean-China Free Trade Area, then Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji told leaders from this region that a decade hence, if they found the free trade deal was not working for them, they could come back and discuss their concerns with the Chinese leadership. Given the flood of Chinese exports that's threatening to deindustrialise South-east Asia's auto, textiles, leather – and a host of other sectors vital to employment and social stability – the moment to redeem Mr Zhu's promise has come. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Tatler Asia
27-05-2025
- Business
- Tatler Asia
Top 10 universities in Asia, according to the 2025 THE World University Rankings
Tsinghua University, China Peking University, China National University of Singapore (NUS), Singapore The University of Tokyo, Japan Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore The University of Hong Kong (HKU), Hong Kong Fudan University, China The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), Hong Kong Zhejiang University, China Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU), China 1. Tsinghua University, China Above Tsinghua University, China (Photo: N509FZ/Wikimedia Commons) Ranked 12th in the world, Tsinghua University is the top Asian university in the World University Rankings. Located in Beijing, Tsinghua University is considered one of China's most prestigious institutions, especially in engineering, technology, and science. Often dubbed 'China's MIT', it is known for academic excellence, impactful research, and deep industry ties. Notable alumni: Chinese President Xi Jinping, former Premier Zhu Rongji, former President Hu Jintao, businesswoman Zhang Zetian. Apple CEO Tim Cook is the chairman of Tsinghua's School of Economics and Management Advisory Board. Read more: The urgency of early sustainable thinking education for Generation Alpha 2. Peking University, China Above Peking University (Photo: Beijing University/Kent Wang via Wikimedia Commons) Also based in Beijing, Peking University (Beida) rivals Tsinghua in prestige, and is ranked just behind it, at 13th in the world. Renowned for its strength in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences, it is also a cultural icon in China. Notable alumni: Former Premier Li Keqiang; Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo; Nobel Prize for Medicine laureate Tu Youyou; Robin Li, founder of Chinese search engine Baidu; and Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn of Thailand 3. National University of Singapore, Singapore Above University Hall, National University of Singapore (Photo: Commons) Singapore's flagship institution, NUS is a leading force in research and innovation across disciplines such as computer science, law, engineering, and business, with partnerships with industry and government driving cutting-edge developments in many areas. It is currently ranked 17th in the world. Notable alumni: Founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Singapore's first female President Halimah Yacob, and former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong 4. The University of Tokyo, Japan Above The Clock Tower at the University of Tokyo (Photo: Guilhelm Vellut/ Wikimedia Commons) Japan's top university, The University of Tokyo, is ranked 28th in the World University Rankings. Known as UTokyo, it was founded in 1877 and has had a long history as Japan's leading institution of higher learning. It offers a broad spectrum of disciplines and is acclaimed for its rigorous academic standards, with multiple Nobel laureates among faculty and alumni. Notable alumni: Nobel-winning authors Yasunari Kawabata and Kenzaburo Oe, Empress Masako of Japan, Studio Ghibli co-founder Isao Takahata, and Kiichiro Toyoda, founder of Toyota 5. Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Above Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (Photo: Nanyang Technological University) Nanyang Technological University is renowned as one of the top two universities in Singapore. Currently ranked 30th in the world, NTU is notable for its rapid ascent in global rankings, with particular strengths in engineering, interdisciplinary research and sustainability. Notable alumni: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, entrepreneur Merry Riana, and Indonesian billionaire Dato' Sri Tahir, founder of Mayapada Group 6. The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Above The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (Photo: HKU Heritage Fund) Ranked 35th in the world, Hong Kong's oldest university, HKU, boasts global recognition for its medical, legal, and humanities programmes. Its international faculty and student body reflect its cosmopolitan base. Notable alumni: Republic of China founder Sun Yat-sen, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam and SARS researcher Dr. Guan Yi 7. Fudan University, China Above The Lee Shau Kee Library in Fudan University, China (Photo: Fudan University) Located in Shanghai, Fudan University is a member of China's elite C9 League, also known as the Chinese Ivy League. At number 36, it is respected for its strengths across a wide range of disciplines, including the humanities, social sciences, science and medicine, as well as its substantial research output and continued international engagement. Notable alumni: Wang Huning, a distinguished politician and member of China's Politburo Standing Committee; People's Republic of China Vice President Han Zheng; Zhang Weiwei, and Guo Guangchang, director of the China Institute of Studies at Fudan University; and Guo Guangchang, chairman and co-founder of Fosun International 8. The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Above The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (Photo: CUHK) The Chinese University of Hong Kong is the second oldest university after HKU, and is ranked at number 44 globally. It is renowned for its bilingual approach to education in English and Chinese. CUHK is recognised for its strong research output, particularly in medicine, business and the social sciences, as well as its multiculturalism, which embraces both Chinese and Western cultures, and its strong links with local and regional communities. Notable alumni: Physics Nobel laureate Sir Charles Kao, HKMA chief Norman Chan, HKTV founder Ricky Wong and former HKEx Chairman Sir Chung-kong Chow 9. Zhejiang University, China Above Zhejiang University, China Ranked 47th in the world, ZJU, in Hangzhou, is one of China's largest and most comprehensive universities in China. With an outstanding reputation in the fields of engineering and science and technology, it enjoys substantial research support and strong cooperation with the industry. Currently, more than 50 faculty members of ZJU are members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), which are leading consultative institutions in science and technology in the People's Republic of China. Notable alumni: Chinese Premier Li Qiang, DeepSeek AI founder Liang Wenfeng, BBK Electronics founder Duan Yongping and Pinduoduo founder Colin Huang 10. Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China Above Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China (Photo: Shanghai Jiao Tong University) Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) is another leading university in Shanghai, with a long history and a reputation for engineering, science, technology, medicine, and business. Ranked at number 52 in the world, SJTU is committed to continuously supporting important research, promoting internationalisation and global cooperation. Notable alumni: Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, basketball star Yao Ming, table tennis legend Ma Long, and Lenovo CEO Yang Yuanqing
Epoch Times
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Epoch Times
Hundreds of Falun Gong Practitioners Gather at Chinese Consulate in San Francisco
SAN FRANCISCO—Hundreds of Falun Gong practitioners rallied on April 25 in front of the Chinese Consulate in San Francisco, marking the anniversary of 10,000 fellow practitioners' peaceful appeal 26 years ago in Beijing, the political center of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The group made the appeal in 1999 for freedom of belief to follow their meditative practice of Falun Gong, also called Falun Dafa, and for the CCP to stop harassing practitioners throughout the country. Practitioners in Beijing were told at the time that the issue had been resolved after then-Prime Minister Zhu Rongji met with several representatives. Upon the news, the 10,000 people, who had gathered of their own accord, packed up as quietly as they had arrived and left to return to their homes across China. 'They were seeking basic human rights in the most peaceful way,' Kerry Huang, one of the practitioners who appealed in Beijing, told The Epoch Times. The rally became a yearly event following the CCP's decision to launch a full-scale persecution of Falun Gong a few months later in July 1999, Huang said. Practitioners have since faced coercion to renounce their beliefs, arrest, imprisonment, torture, and even death. 'We are here to [raise] awareness of the still ongoing persecution, and to tell people truthfulness, benevolence, and forbearance, [the core values of Falun Gong,] is for everybody, and ... society will be better through cultivating by such principles.' Related Stories 4/29/2024 4/29/2024 Deepak Yadav, an entrepreneur from India, told The Epoch Times, 'That's a historic day in the world, to see such a peaceful practice, a peaceful appeal, peaceful event, where practitioners came and they appeal very peacefully to the government to stop harassing them.' 'It's basically a reminder of how important human rights are for people, and if we have to stand for something, how peacefully we can do, and what is the right way,' Yadav, also a Falun Gong practitioner, added of the historic day. Alex Wang and Julia Zhu, a couple who recently arrived to San Francisco from mainland China, said they were deprived of a normal life following being arrested and detained for 10 days in late 2021 for spreading cards with QR codes that could help people to read uncensored information about China by bypassing the regime's Great Firewall. 'We lost our decent jobs in the college and couldn't find another one being constantly harassed by police officers,' Wang said. Although the couple managed to leave China and arrived in San Francisco in 2024, Wang's mother was left behind because her passport was invalidated by the authorities. Wang said his mother was arrested again in China and is now facing a trial. 'Every practitioner in China, like our family, may suddenly lose a normal life due to the persecution.' Practitioners demonstrate in front of the Chinese Consulate in San Francisco on April 25, 2025. Lear Zhou/The Epoch Times According to Falun Gong's information site 'I think if more people can gather and demonstrate peacefully, it has strength in it,' Gabor from Hungary said as he passed by the protesters while sightseeing. 'Keep up the good fight, but it's not easy,' he said. Local resident Kim Quinteros said she was saddened by the persecution. 'Many oppressed people don't have a voice in society, and big business and people with money are the only voices that matter, and that is very horrible, and I don't agree with that.' 'I believe everyone has a right to live their lives freely, without persecution, and be able to find their own truth and follow their own passions,' another passerby named Patrick from New York said. 'It's well known that there's really gross and evil human rights violations in China in general, how they treat their people, and there needs to be radical change over there, really put power back to the people there, and really reinforce their true natural born given rights there, yet the government in place right now is not interested in any of that.' 'You can see from the signs that you have here, it's just probably the tip of the iceberg of what's really going on over there,' he said. Crystal Lu and Gary Wang contributed to this report.
