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Express Tribune
6 days ago
- Politics
- Express Tribune
The current situation in Afghanistan
The writer is an academic and researcher. He is also the author of Development, Poverty, and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge Listen to article Although the international community is preoccupied with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the lingering crisis triggered by Israeli aggressions in the Middle East, the situation further afield in the South Asian region remains tenuous as well. Besides the potential risk of another Indo-Pak flare-up, Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan are tense. The possibility of cross-border proxies engaging in terrorist attacks within Pakistan is a major threat. In addition to trying to secure the long and porous Af-Pak border, around 800,000 Afghans seeking refuge in Pakistan have been expelled since 2023. The latest UN report on Afghanistan describes the troubled state of our northwesterly neighbour. It points out how the security situation in Afghanistan has not stabilised despite the end of major military conflict between the US-led NATO forces and the Taliban. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K) continues to defy the domination of the Taliban regime. Besides attacking 'soft targets' such as religious minorities, ISIL-K continues high-profile attacks, for example, at the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing earlier this year. Other opposition groups such as the National Resistance Front led by Ahmad Masood, and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, comprised of former government and military officials, are still operational. However, neither the ISIL-K nor these other opposition groups have the capability to threaten the Taliban's vice-like hold on the war-ravaged country. The above-mentioned UN assessment further notes how the new school year, which started in spring, has again barred girls and women from going to secondary schools or from pursuing higher education. Humanitarian needs in the country remain dire too. Yet, the UN's own humanitarian response plan for the current year, which aspired to support nearly 17 million Afghans barely managed to secure over 15 per cent of its proposed $2.42 billion budget. International funding, on which nearly half the Afghan population remains so dependent, has been shrinking, and it seems unlikely to rise again under present circumstances. Global US aid cuts have severely undermined UN affiliated efforts by the World Food Program, for instance, as well as the work of many major non-profits, such as the International Red Cross. Other rich western countries are not stepping up their commitments to compensate for the loss of American aid. Conversely, China's influence in Afghanistan has grown. China is currently trying to mediate the resumption of bilateral ties between Islamabad and Kabul, which had been suspended for nearly four years. Earlier this month, Pakistan announced that its charge d'affaires stationed in Kabul would be elevated to the rank of ambassador, and Kabul followed suit by announcing that its representative in Islamabad would also be upgraded to the same rank. Only a handful of countries — including China and Russia — have yet agreed to host Taliban-appointed ambassadors since their return to power in 2021. However, none of these countries, including Pakistan, has yet formally recognised the Taliban rulers. The Taliban have been in power for nearly four years now, so they have had ample time to make a transition from an insurgency movement to a more functional government. Their hardline and iron-fisted stance was initially explained as being motivated by their fear of losing the support of hardline elements who may have joined even more extreme outfits such as the ISIL-K. However, the Taliban regime now has no excuse. It must broaden its myopic approach, and make a genuine effort to deliver responsible governance, via incremental representation rather than continued repression. Otherwise, Afghanistan will remain a pariah state.
Express Tribune
19-06-2025
- Science
- Express Tribune
AI and the environment
The writer is an academic and researcher. He is also the author of Development, Poverty, and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge Listen to article For Gen X people like me, who are trying to get used to the new world of AI, like we learnt using the computer, and then the Internet many years ago, it is intriguing to see how AI is becoming integrated into our lives. For researchers like me, AI is making it easier to navigate Internet searches, and to synthesise relevant literature. Besides such novice applications of AI, however, this evolving technology is going to start playing an increasingly prominent role in more salient aspects of our lives ranging from healthcare, education, manufacturing, agriculture, and even warfare. There are also legitimate reasons to be wary of AI's power. AI is making it much easier to spread disinformation, enable fraud, and cause conflicts to become deadlier. Moreover, AI, like many other technologies that we have become so dependent on in our consumerist world, ranging from cars to cell phone, has significant environmental impacts. This heavy ecological footprint of AI is more concerning to me than speculations about AI dominating or replacing humans. AI has a much larger environmental impact than many of the other innovations we now depend on, due to the exorbitant amount of energy needed to operate and train AI systems, and because of the e-waste produced by the hardware used to run AI. Training and operationalising large language models such as ChatGPT depend on energy still being generated via fossil fuels, which is leading to more carbon emissions, and increased global warming. Each ChatGPT question is estimated to use around 10 times more electricity than a traditional Google search. Producing and disposing of AI hardware also generates a lot of e-waste comprised of harmful chemicals. Running AI models need a lot of water too, to cool the data centres which house massive servers, and to cool thermoelectric or hydroelectric plants which supply electricity for these data centers. The race to produce AI is also compelling major tech giants to walk back on their earlier environmental pledges. Consider, for instance, the case of Google. A few years ago, Google set an ambitious target to address climate change by becoming 'net zero' emissions, but now the company's emissions are growing due to Goggle's bid to become a leader in AI. As the AI industry continues to grow, its environmental impact will grow too. However, as is the case of ecological destruction caused by over consumption of other products, the environmental impacts of AI will not be evenly distributed across different regions or socio-economic classes. The benefits of AI will not be evenly spread either. Higher income countries are better poised to capture economic value from AI because they already have better digital infrastructure, more AI development resources, and advanced data systems. Better off households will be able to enjoy the benefits of AI, while having more resilience in terms of shielding themselves from its adverse impacts. Conversely, the quest to produce more AI may cause exploitation in poorer countries that provide the critical resources needed for AI. This is not a speculative statement, but one based on ground realities. Consider, for instance, the dismal condition of miners, including children, in poor African countries like Congo, who are toiling away to produce cobalt to power batteries used to run electric cars, and our phones. Al will require many more of these critical resources, potentially leading to even more exploitation of people and natural environments in resource-rich but poor countries. It is important to improve the energy efficiency of AI models and data centers, and to use renewable energy sources to power AI data centres. Moreover, it is also vital to promote more sustainable mining and manufacturing practices and improve e-waste management to reduce the amount of harmful chemicals entering the environment. However, whether these efforts will be paid more attention than maximising profits within this highly unregulated new domain of human innovation remains to be seen.
Express Tribune
12-06-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Are Ibn Khaldun's ideas still relevant for countries like Pakistan?
The writer is an academic and researcher. He is also the author of Development, Poverty, and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge Listen to article The dangerous skirmish with our hostile larger neighbour has sparked a rare moment of national solidarity within Pakistan — a welcome feeling given the immense political polarisation we have been experiencing in recent years. However, major ethnic, regional and socio-economic rifts remain a dominant feature within Pakistani society, and it would be wishful thinking to assume that these serious problems will melt away just because we scored an apparent short-term win over India. Carving out a new nation from colonial India, using the two-nation theory which aimed to unite diverse ethnic groups using a common religious identity, was an impressive feat. Yet, the way this rationale was operationalised through a hurried partition plan resulted in a truncated nation separated by nearly 1000 miles. A sizeable number of Muslims remained in India fearing displacement and believing that the transnational nature of their faith did not necessitate residing in a separate nation. Those who migrated to the eastern wing of Pakistan also soon discovered that a shared religious identity was not an excuse to continue tolerating hegemony by more powerful ethnic groups. The traumatic separation of Bengalis from the rest of Pakistan did not result in other ethnic groups overcoming their differences either. Not only the Balochs or Pathans, but also the Sindhis and Saraikis have their own reasons for feeling disgruntled in the sort of Pakistan we have managed to create over these past several decades. Ethnic disgruntlement is not the only problem corroding a common sense of national identity. Sectarianism and the extremist violence resulting from it remain another source of perpetual consternation. One cannot oversimplify the root causes of such ruptures and blame the Punjabis as the cause of all discord. The proxy contestation between the Soviets and the US, alongside rivalries within the Muslim world, has certainly exacerbated religious tensions in Pakistan. Suspected Indian support to militants and insurgents has added fuel to the fire. However, while these external factors exacerbated societal rifts, they cannot be blamed for creating them out of thin air. The way our post-colonial establishment has relied on top-down, patronage-based and unrepresentative models of governance must shoulder much of the blame for the glaring social tensions evident in our midst today. Perhaps it is time for our leaders and decision-makers to revisit some of the ideas put forth by thinkers closer to our own cultural roots. For instance, the work of a 14th century seminal Muslim sociologist, Ibn Khaldun, still offers relevant insights for addressing the growing polarisation in our contemporary society. Ibn Khaldun's concept of asabiyyah, or social cohesion, is particularly worthy of greater attention. Asabiyyah helps unite people and can foster solidarity through shared values which, in turn, remains essential for effective governance and the overall stability of any state. The essence of Ibn Khaldun's ideas proposes a humanist and participatory approach to governance, wherein the well-being of a given society is a paramount goal. He aptly noted how inequality leads to social fragmentation and instability, and warned about the dangers of relying solely on military strength. Ibn Khaldun certainly offers a more compelling basis for national building than the warped ideologies put forth by populist and divisive leaders who suppress dissenting voices to build hierarchical systems allowing accumulation by the few at the cost of marginalising the many. Even if the traditional characteristics identified by Ibn Khaldun to enable cohesion may be less relevant in our increasingly complex world of fluid identities, the notion of asabiyyah can be reinterpreted to prioritise universal values such as freedom, social justice and respect for differences. If our leaders can honestly embrace such ideas, we may move closer to actualising the notion of Pakistan, which is supposed to be an acronym representing all the regions that comprise this nation.
Express Tribune
05-06-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Turmoil in Bangladesh
The writer is an academic and researcher. He is also the author of Development, Poverty, and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge Listen to article After its traumatic struggle to separate from the rest of Pakistan, Bangladesh aspired to become a secular and pluralistic democracy. However, despite its relatively impressive economic performance and human development achievements, this densely populated country has remained plagued by recurrent political violence. After experiencing years of bitter rivalry between its two main political parties, the political future of this second largest Muslim country in South Asia has become increasingly uncertain. Bangladesh has certainly seen its share of turmoil over these past five decades. The Awami League had been in power for just a few years when a bloody coup led to the assassination of Sheikh Mujeeb-ur-Rehman, along with many of his family members, in 1975. This assassination set the stage for the Awami League's deep-seated rivalry with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), formed by Zia-ur-Rahman. Zia-ur-Rahman was also assassinated in another coup in 1981, by Awami League sympathisers for his alleged role in Mujeeb's murder. The military then remained in charge of the country for almost nine years. From the early 1990s onwards, the BNP (led by Zia-ur-Rahman's widow Khalida Zia) and the Awami League (led by Sheikh Mujeeb-ur-Rahman's daughter Sheikh Hasina) began alternating in government, barring another two-year period of a military-backed emergency caretaker regime which suspended parliamentary elections in 2007. Khaleda Zia was the PM twice from 1991 to 1996, and from 2001 to 2006. Sheikh Hasina first became the PM in 1996. She then returned as PM in 2008 and remained in power till her ouster in August 2024. The Awami League managed to stay in power for multiple terms by creating a broad-based coalition which included Bangladeshi nationalists, moderate Islamists and secular supporters. But Sheikh Hasina soon began exhibiting authoritarian tendencies. Under her, there was increased repression of opponents, including not only BNP leaders and workers, but also Jamaat-i-Islami members for their alleged collaboration with Pakistan while East Pakistan was struggling for independence. Sheikh Hasina used the security apparatus, and even co-opted the judiciary, to punish her opponents. She is also accused of engaging in massive electoral rigging. Soon after Sheikh Hasina's controversial electoral victory in 2024, students rose up to protest the government decision to institute job quotas devised to benefit its own stalwarts. Repressive tactics to disperse protesters caused around 1,500 deaths, which is when the Bangladeshi military decided to withdraw its support to the government, and Sheikh Hasina was compelled to resign and flee to India. Widely welcomed was the appointment of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of a new caretaker government which has taken upon itself the herculean task of institutional reforms, deemed a precondition for enabling fresh and fair elections. However, this interim setup is struggling to maintain law and order, implement its reform agenda, and avert the politics of revenge. Moreover, the caretaker government has yet to announce a firm date for elections, and its decision to ban the Awami League is raising doubts about its intention to hold 'inclusive' elections. Conversely, the Jamaat-e-Islami, banned in 2013 by Sheikh Hasina, is now free to engage in the political process again. BNP took to the streets recently demanding that elections be held during the current year. Students who led the 2024 protests have also formed their own political party. Despite Yunus claiming that he will not run for office, there is growing tension between him and the army. There are increased fears of communal violence, and uncertainty surrounding what the Awami League will do to push back against being sidelined by the interim setup. The present political situation in Bangladesh is thus quite fluid. Whether Bangladesh will be able to form a new government, which can overcome the current polarisation, and transcend the politics of vindictiveness which has plagued the country for much of its existence, remains to be seen.
Express Tribune
29-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Nepal after its Maoist revolution
The writer is an academic and researcher. He is also the author of Development, Poverty, and Power in Pakistan, available from Routledge Listen to article The mountainous, land-locked, never colonised nation of Nepal is getting increased international attention due to the unfolding great power competition in South Asia. Whether Nepal will be able to leverage this newfound external interest to its advantage depends on the ability of its current leftist leaders to transcend personal ambitions and demonstrate greater statesmanship. Communist ideologies have not had much luck in Bangladesh and Pakistan. While Sri Lanka has seen the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) form a government after the ouster of the Rajapaksa brothers in 2022, the JVP's historic communist leanings have been significantly compromised. Communist parties yield significant influence in Indian states like Kerala, Tripura and West Bengal, and Maoist rebels are locked in a lingering insurgency against the hegemonic national government as well. Yet, Nepal is the only South Asian country where Maoists managed to take over the reins of power. Nepal's recent political history has experienced rapid changes. The Shah dynasty unified Nepal during the 18th century, but real power soon shifted to hereditary chief ministers known as the Ranas. The Nepali Congress Liberation Army operating from newly independent India then formed an alliance with the monarchy to undermine the Ranas in 1951. After sovereignty of the crown was restored, the Nepali Congress Party worked with the monarchy to form a new government, until King Mahendra decided to suspend parliament, and turn the country into an absolute monarchy again in 1960. Increasing disgruntlement with the Hindu monarchy eventually led communist influences to gain influence. An outright Maoist revolt soon plunged Nepal into a civil war in 1996, which lasted for almost a decade. A Comprehensive Peace Accord was finally signed between the government and Maoists in 2006, which abolished the monarchy. Yet, despite the creation of a multi-party system, the political landscape of the country has remained instable. There has been significant fragmentation amongst the Maoists, and formation and dissolution of varied coalitions has led to repeated changes in governments, even within a single electoral cycle. During the last general elections, held in 2022, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist) formed a coalition with the Nepali Congress Party to secure power. But this partnership lasted for just over a year, before major differences emerged. A new leftist coalition was formed between the CPN (M) and the United Community Party (Marxist-Leninist), but the political situation remained tenuous. The CPN (M) has recently formed a new coalition with the Nepali Congress Party. How long this new coalition will survive before tensions erupt between these traditionally competing parties remains to be seen. There is also a relatively small but active group demanding restoration of Nepal's monarchy, which has also been resorting to violent protests to draw attention to their cause. Amidst all the in-fighting and jostling for power, there is scant attention paid to catering to the basic needs of the citizenry, to creating responsive state institutions, achieving sustainable economic growth and improving the lives of ordinary Nepalis. Nepal has the chance to leverage its geopolitical location to funnel more Chinese investments into the country to push back against traditional Indian hegemony. The US is also keener to invest in Nepal, primarily to keep the Chinese at bay. However, Nepali politicians will need to demonstrate much greater maturity and astuteness to balance these contending external influences in a manner which maximise national interests rather than serving their personal ambitions. Thus far, neither the Maoists factions nor the Nepali Congress Party have demonstrated such foresight.
