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The Hindu
11-07-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
New political contours in Tamil Nadu's shifting sands
With its Assembly elections less than a year away, Tamil Nadu faces a pivotal moment in its pursuit of an upper-middle-income economy. Distinct historically, the State has long resisted national homogenising forces, forging its unique political and social identity. This trajectory is now being tested by complex economic challenges and an assertive central government. The years ahead will determine whether Tamil Nadu can sustain its equitable growth model and preserve its ideological moorings amidst new political realities. Tamil Nadu's political landscape has long been defined by two distinct Dravidian strands. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), known for what political scientist Narendra Subramanian calls its 'assertive populism', leveraged social justice and federalism to uplift marginalised groups. Despite criticisms of patronage, the DMK's ideological commitment has been consistent. Conversely, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) practised 'paternalistic populism', prioritising patronage and welfare over ideology. Led by charismatic figures such as M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK united diverse anti-DMK forces, from traditional upper-caste Congress supporters to landowning castes and welfare beneficiaries. It also mobilised Dalits against intermediate castes dominant in the DMK, forming a stable bipolar system, with the AIADMK as the DMK's enduring adversary. This bipolar Dravidian system, while fostering patronage and corruption, also drove a competitive populist economic model. This facilitated comprehensive industrialisation as well as welfare in health, education, and services. The State's political exceptionalism has been crucial to its economic success, making it a beacon of inclusive growth, India's second largest economy, and significantly reducing poverty. However, the Dravidian model has its limitations. Its competitive populism has delivered impressive quantitative outcomes such as good high school enrolment, extensive health care, and widespread industrial growth, but quality has often lagged. Learning outcomes are mediocre, employment quality needs improvement and unchecked industrial growth has degraded the environment. Critically, policies designed for the inclusivity of Other Backward Classes (OBC) may have reinforced caste divisions. Despite the State's social justice rhetoric, there is persistent and deep-seated casteism with ongoing discrimination against Dalits and inter-caste tensions. The focus of the Dravidian parties on caste-based mobilisation, while politically successful, has often institutionalised rather than transcended caste identities. The rise of the BJP The national ascendancy of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fundamentally disrupted this binary system. Lacking significant ideological traction in Tamil Nadu, the BJP has sought to carve out space for itself by fracturing the AIADMK's traditional base, and fostering internal dissension and multiple splits. The irony is stark: a disarrayed AIADMK is now in alliance with the very force that is threatening its ideological and electoral space. This opportunistic alliance now prioritises dislodging the DMK over ideological alignment. The AIADMK cynically leverages the BJP's central strength: blaming the DMK government for failures in securing central funds or abolishing the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET)-UG despite the Centre's refusal. More alarmingly, the AIADMK, under the leadership of Edappadi K. Palaniswami, a former Chief Minister, has now sought to use the BJP's corrosive ideology as a crutch, seen in his criticism of the current government using temple funds to construct colleges. The DMK's strategy, in response, has been astute: forging a robust ideological alliance with the Congress, Left parties, and the Dalits-led Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) among others. Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's accommodative leadership has maintained cohesion, with the perceived threat of BJP hegemony providing an ongoing ideological imperative. The coalition's strong anti-BJP stance, crucial for cohesion, has also risked unfavourable central policies. The strength of this alliance lies in its inherent framework of mutual accountability. The Congress ensures a national perspective while the Left parties ensure awareness of worker and peasant and environmental issues, pushing beyond narrow industrial progress. Crucially, the VCK's presence represents a corrective mechanism to the DMK's historical limitations — anchoring the alliance to a comprehensive understanding of social justice that extends beyond OBC mobilisation to include Dalit recognition and upliftment — seen in the alliance's attempts at addressing caste discrimination and caste hierarchy more robustly. Tamil Nadu's active civil society further underpins the State's ideological bedrock, championing a nuanced secularism. Unlike other States, where secularism can be defensive, Tamil Nadu's communities often identify as Tamilians alongside their religious identities, fostering inter-religious bonds. Rationalist movements, film-makers and writers have created popular support for progressive policies that attack casteism, patriarchy, and superstition whilst enabling redistributive governance. However, this intellectual and social foundation now faces its greatest test as the political landscape fragments. Four-cornered contest, implications Today, Tamil Nadu faces a new four-cornered contest. The economic implications are profound. New charisma-driven forces have emerged. Actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) attempts to replicate the AIADMK's matinee idol success with superficial Dravidian and social justice assertions. Conversely, film-maker Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi seeks to redefine Tamil nationalism away from its Dravidian core. This fragmentation threatens to exacerbate the existing limitations of the Dravidian model. The AIADMK-BJP alliance aims to exploit rather than resolve caste tensions. Parties such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi, mobilising specific caste identities, have aligned with the BJP for narrow identitarian gains. These formations offer little towards solutions for environmental degradation, gender discrimination or improving education and employment quality — causes of concern in an otherwise developing State. The DMK alliance's progressive framework offers superior conditions for economic transformation. Its emphasis on secular outcomes and social amity creates the governance capacity needed for such transitions. This is aided by the internal dynamics of the alliance. This structure, despite contradictions, provides the best framework for evolving beyond the Dravidian model's limitations while supporting social gains that are essential for economic progress. The new fragmented political landscape could also affect the State's economic trajectory. New battles rooted in casteism or communalism could threaten its ambitions. Social conflict approaches that pit community against community and propagate medieval communal values undermine this transition. As the State seems to progress to an upper-middle-income economy, it must avoid the middle-income trap, shifting to an innovation-driven, high-value manufacturing model. This requires heavy investment in research and development, digital literacy, and diversifying exports into more higher-value products and services — all of which demand greater state facilitation and fiscal autonomy. The State contributed 11.9% to India's manufacturing GDP and has the most factories nationally. Its manufacturing sector grew at 8.33% between 2021-22 and 2023-24. Yet, a significant impediment is the central government's increasing fiscal centralisation and anti-federal policies. The Centre's broader fiscal policies increasingly constrain Tamil Nadu's financial autonomy even as the State demonstrates economic vitality with State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) collections growing 20.12% to ₹35,414.05 crore in H1 2024-25, reduced fiscal allocations post-GST and higher cesses continue to cut mandated devolution. More concerning is its refusal of development funds to Opposition-ruled States as a form of political pressure. Regional resistance to national relevance These challenges highlight a broader strategic imperative for Tamil Nadu's ruling alliance. Sustaining its distinct model requires moving beyond regionalism toward proactive coalition-building. As one State alone cannot effectively challenge central fiscal policies, coordinated opposition can create national pressure. Facing a hostile Centre, the DMK-led alliance must think beyond regional confines, mobilising opinion among other Opposition-ruled States on shared concerns: delimitation, a two-language policy, and greater fiscal decentralisation. For the alliance to achieve its aims within Tamil Nadu, its national partners — particularly the Congress and Left — must actively foster a favourable discourse on federalism, social justice and secularism nationally. The political battles in Tamil Nadu are thus not merely about retaining power. They are about preserving a distinct model of governance and development that has delivered tangible progress. The stakes for Tamil Nadu, Indian federalism, and its diverse ethos, could not be higher.

The Hindu
06-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
TVK scotches speculation on alliance with AIADMK, regardless of BJP's position
Amid speculation that actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) may align with the AIADMK in the run-up to the 2026 Assembly election, if the BJP stays out of the coalition, the party has ruled out the possibility. TVK general secretary (propaganda and policy) K.G. Arunraj told The Hindu that the party was not considering a tie-up with the AIADMK, regardless of the BJP's position and AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami's renewed appeal to like-minded parties to join hands against the ruling DMK. He said the TVK had entered the political arena to usher in a change in Tamil Nadu politics. 'The people of Tamil Nadu are disillusioned with both the DMK and the AIADMK and are looking for a meaningful and credible alternative,' he said. Asked whether the TVK was trying to position itself better than the AIADMK in opposing the ruling party to bag the anti-DMK votes, he said, 'The AIADMK is in disarray despite being under single leadership. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it forfeited deposits in seven constituencies. This shows that the anti-DMK votes are not transferring only to the AIADMK as they did in the earlier elections.' As for the revival of the AIADMK-BJP alliance in April this year, he said there was no enthusiasm among the workers of both parties. According to him, the AIADMK workers felt that the tie-up was 'forced'. Dr. Arunraj said public dissatisfaction with the DMK government had been brewing for some time, and was increasingly visible. 'Every day of DMK rule is adding to anti-incumbency. The government lacks any long-term vision for Tamil Nadu's growth,' he said. Other sources in the TVK said the party had conducted a State-wide survey to gauge its organisational strength and public support. They described the findings as 'encouraging'. 'Support for the TVK is increasing even before our party president embarks on his tour of the State. Once he hits the ground, we expect a significant shift in momentum in our favour,' one of the sources added.


Hans India
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Hans India
TN remains an enigma for the saffron lobby
As NDA 3.0 completes its first anniversary today, the perennially in election mode apparatus of the alliance must already be working overtime for the slate for the later part of the year. Bihar, one of the states readying for the Assembly elections, is slowly but surely seeing changes, ostensibly in favour of an overwhelming saffron win at present. Whatever that may be, the 2026 elections must be making the war rooms of various political parties working with a different game plan as it is where the INDIA bloc sees its chances. Tamil Nadu, by this time, next year would have had a new government in place. The question is, which party will get to run the state which is now seeing aggressive posturing by NDA and counter attacks by the DMK government. Once a formal alliance was sealed by the Centre with the principal Opposition party and old ally, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the BJP must have felt relieved that it has made the first move, well. Given that the MGR-founded party is facing an identity and existential crisis in its 53rd year of existence, the cobbling together of the alliance with smaller parties being wooed establishes the fact that the saffron party is happy to ride piggyback on the Dravidian big brother this time around. Amit Shah's latest statement that the new alliance will sweep the 2026 polls has not entirely been rejected by the political pundits and as expected, pooh poohed by the DMK leaders. Its top-rung icons say that if the Dravidian ideology resonates with the people, it is nigh impossible for the BJP to set its foot in Tamil Nadu. While a few still consider the earlier elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as a 'lost opportunity' for the BJP to have made inroads into the Tamil psyche, the highly unpopular way the administration has gone about its business has made the average public take a critical look at the goings-on in the State. Dynastic politics – that of Udayanidhi being groomed to take over from the present CM, M K Stalin - is still being helplessly accepted by the party machinery and followers as a 'natural' progression of the first family in retaining power. What is not left unnoticed is the increased presence of Karunanidhi's daughter and the CM's step-sister Kanimozhi in the central scheme of things, Stalin's blow hot blow cold with Modi government and the stench of corruption in the governance of the State which has been allowed to grow (the TASMAC case, for one), for a surgical strike later by the central machinery, closer to the poll dates. It is surely a work in progress for the non-DMK formation, but it is a known fact that the DMK has till date never managed a second successive stint in office. Will they break the jinx this time or will a currently docile anti-DMK alliance spring a surprise? If it is the final chance for the AIADMK to retain its political relevance, it is also the best-ever opportunity for the BJP in nearly five decades to make its presence felt in the state's corridors of power. Whether they can make or mar will be in the hands of the Tamil electorate.


The Hindu
02-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
AIADMK's executive committee ratifies the party's alliance with BJP
The executive committee of the AIADMK on Friday gave its approval to the formation of an alliance with the BJP for the 2026 Assembly election. A resolution to this effect was adopted at a meeting of the executive held at the party headquarters here. It was attended by general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, presidium chairman A. Tamilmagan Hussain, and senior functionaries K.P. Munusamy, Natham R. Viswanathan, and Dindigul C. Sreenivasan. The motion was moved by a group of office-bearers, including organisation secretaries S. Semmalai and T. Rathnavel. Among the notable participants was former Minister K.A. Sengottaiyan, who was said to have differences of opinion with Mr. Palaniswami. Expressing its wish that the coalition would become a 'victorious alliance', the committee said a front was being formed by like-minded parties to defeat the 'common adversary' — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) — by ensuring that anti-DMK votes did not get split. The committee, which also greeted Mr. Palaniswami for his efforts to forge a 'mega alliance', resolved to make him the Chief Minister again. The AIADMK welcomed the Centre's move to hold a caste census, along with the general census, an issue that the party had been pursuing with the Centre for years. It declared that it would stand by the Central government in its efforts to root out terrorism in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack. Criticising the DMK government on a variety of issues, the executive called upon the State government to bring out a White Paper on industrial investment that materialised after Chief Minister M.K. Stalin made a couple of foreign visits.


New Indian Express
24-04-2025
- Politics
- New Indian Express
EPS hosts dinner for party MLAs after AIADMK-BJP alliance; justifies decision for alliance
CHENNAI: Ahead of the AIADMK district secretaries meeting on April 25 and executive committee meeting on May 2, party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami hosted a dinner for party MLAs at his residence on Wednesday. All MLAs, except senior leader KA Sengottaiyan, were present on the occasion. One MLA could not attend due to personal reasons. Palaniswami hosted the dinner after the AIADMK and the BJP revived their alliance on April 11. After the revival of ties with the BJP a few senior leaders had expressed displeasure over this development during internal meetings of the party. Palaniswami, on Wednesday, is believed to have explained the reasons behind his decision to revive the alliance with the BJP. It may be noted that Palaniswami had been reiterating that unseating the DMK government in the 2026 Assembly election is the sole objective of the AIADMK, and to achieve this, he would align with all like-minded parties to consolidate anti-DMK votes. AIADMK presidium chairman Thamizhmagan Hussain, senior leaders M Thambidurai, CVe Shanmugam, B Valarmathi and others were present.