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Nilambur loss a warning for LDF as anti-Pinarayi sentiment gains ground in Kerala
Nilambur loss a warning for LDF as anti-Pinarayi sentiment gains ground in Kerala

New Indian Express

time24-06-2025

  • Politics
  • New Indian Express

Nilambur loss a warning for LDF as anti-Pinarayi sentiment gains ground in Kerala

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Can Nilambur be considered a harbinger of the turn Kerala politics will take in 2026? More than losing a sitting seat, what would be deeply worrying for the Left would be the underscoring fact that the poll outcome as a whole could be termed a verdict against what P V Anvar terms 'Pinarayism'. That Anvar polled close to 20,000 votes clearly goes to show a political climate wherein an anti-Pinarayi sentiment can be utilised to reap electoral gains. This is a rude wake-up call to avowed Leftists who continue to behave like ostriches with their head in the sand, refusing to acknowledge their fast-eroding base of voters in Kerala. The first-time loss of a sitting seat during the second Pinarayi term has cast a shadow over the Left's hopes of a consecutive third term. As local body polls approach, the writing on the wall is clear for the front. Obviously, a major course correction, for both LDF and Pinarayi, in addition to setting a poll agenda that doesn't revolve around Pinarayi alone, has become inevitable. Bad calls? Overemphasis on UDF's pact with Jamaat-e-Islami, miscalculations over fissures within UDF, presumption the Anvar factor would eat only into the UDF vote base might have went wrong for LDF. Still, It succeeded in protecting its mass base

UDF unity pays off, anti-incumbency hurts LDF
UDF unity pays off, anti-incumbency hurts LDF

The Hindu

time23-06-2025

  • Politics
  • The Hindu

UDF unity pays off, anti-incumbency hurts LDF

The United Democratic Front's (UDF) impressive win in the Nilambur Assembly byelection has set a strong precedent ahead of the upcoming local body and Assembly polls. Notably, this could be the last byelection of the current Assembly term with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in power. While the UDF and the LDF retained their respective seats in the byelections held in Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, Palakkad, and Chelakkara, Nilambur proved to be a game changer with the UDF wresting the seat from the LDF. In the intensely contested byelection, where both the UDF and the LDF invested heavily in resources and campaigning, anti-incumbency sentiment proved pivotal to UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath's victory. M. Swaraj was likely one of the strongest candidates the LDF could have fielded, yet he still could not sway the voters in the government's favour. Despite a high-profile campaign backed by over a dozen Ministers and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the LDF could not escape the weight of anti-incumbency sentiments in Nilambur. Those sentiments were fuelled by issues such as escalating human-animal conflicts impacting settler hill farmers and the LDF government's confrontation with striking ASHA workers. ASHA workers even campaigned against Mr. Swaraj in Nilambur. The LDF's strategy to label the UDF as communal due to the Welfare Party of India's (WPI) support backfired. This tactic, stemming from the LDF's 2019 split with the Jamaat-e-Islami, failed to resonate with voters. The UDF's unity was on full display during the byelection, with all major constituents backing chairman V.D. Satheesan and Congress State president Sunny Joseph. Mr. Satheesan's decision to reject P.V. Anvar from joining the UDF paid off, thanks to the UDF victory. Nilambur result bolstered Mr. Satheesan's position and increased Mr. Joseph's popularity. Mr. Anvar, whose resignation led to the June 19 byelection, managed to secure nearly 20,000 votes, showcasing his clout in Nilambur. Although he attributed his vote share to anti-Pinarayi sentiment, the UDF is aware that his votes were substantial enough to potentially alter the outcome. With two major elections in sight within one year, Mr. Anvar seems keen on joining the UDF, recognising his influence is largely confined to Nilambur. UDF leaders appear cautious about his potential entry. The KPCC president diplomatically remarked that any closed door can be opened with the right key, hinting at a possible welcome for Mr. Anvar.

Cong missteps give UDF a headache
Cong missteps give UDF a headache

Time of India

time01-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Time of India

Cong missteps give UDF a headache

Kozhikode: When former independent MLA PV Anvar left LDF and accused CM Pinarayi Vijayan and his office of wrongdoing, many thought it would hurt the Left in the bypoll. But due to a series of mistakes by Congress in handling the acerbic and unpredictable leader, the issue is now becoming a problem for UDF just before elections. Although Anvar kept attacking UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath and claimed he had no chance of winning, Congress failed to present a clear counter narrative. Instead of closing ranks, Congress leaders kept engaging with Anvar and fuelled speculation within the party about how to deal with him. Anvar's personal credibility has faded over the years, reducing his electoral influence, but he still holds some 'spoiler' value that matters in a close bypoll. UDF insiders believe his impact may be limited to fewer than 5000 votes, but even a small shift can make a difference in a tight race. LDF, by fielding rising heavyweight M Swaraj, seems to be consolidating its core vote base effectively. UDF's unclear and inconsistent stance on Anvar has exposed its internal divisions. Early public gestures, like sharing the stage with Anvar and seeming to support his anti-Pinarayi remarks, gave him more weight than he deserves. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Descubra ofertas de voos imperdíveis Voos | Anúncios de Pesquisa Saiba Mais Undo This could help Anvar attract some anti-incumbency votes that might otherwise have gone to UDF in a direct contest. During the campaign, LDF and UDF will have to endure his daily attacks on Shoukath and Swaraj and risk weakening their broader political fight against each other. Congress seems to have underestimated the long-standing personal animosity between Anvar and the Aryadan family. Expecting tactical cooperation between Anvar and Shoukath was probably naive. From the start, Anvar was unlikely to accept Shoukath taking the MLA seat he resigned from, unless, as some speculate, a firm offer for a seat in the 2026 election was on the table. UDF must watch out if Anvar exploits the front's internal problems, including local resentment after former DCC president VV Prakash narrowly lost the 2021 polls and unease among parts of the Muslim community over Shoukath's cultural views, especially shown in his films. UDF and LDF say Anvar's candidacy will not affect their chances. UDF leaders argue the contest is now a direct ideological battle between the fronts, which they hope will serve as a referendum on LDF govt's nine-year rule. After winning Nilambur in 2016, CPM went out of its way to support Anvar who came from a prominent Congress family. He caught CPM's attention with his aggressive politics and the party backed him when he left Congress. CPM also supported Anvar in the 2011 assembly elections when he ran as an independent from Ernad. Later Anvar ran as an independent in Wayanad in 2014 and won nearly 50,000 votes in an election where CPI's Sathyan Mokeri lost by 20,870 votes. Though Anvar was involved in controversies including illegal construction on ESA land at Kakkadampoyil and faced criminal cases, CPM and the CM protected him. CPM fielded him in Nilambur in 2021 though some opposed his long absence before the elections as he was in Sierra Leone setting up a Rs 20,000 crore gold and diamond mining business.

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