Latest news with #blockbusterdrugs
Telegraph
14-07-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Forget Ozempic and Mounjaro, this firm is on the edge of a weight-loss breakthrough
Questor is The Telegraph's stock-picking column, helping you decode the markets and offering insights on where to invest. This year, drug companies have been living under a cloud of uncertainty created by the Trump administration. Threats of tough action on drug pricing and tariffs have fuelled nervousness, while recently agreed cuts to Medicaid in the 'big beautiful bill' are also causing concern. But medicine will always be a priority for the sick, and innovations from the pharmaceutical industry are vital for creating healthier societies as populations age. Biotech giant Amgen looks particularly well placed to weather current uncertainties and prosper from the long-term prospects of its industry. A first-class dividend record, which includes increased payouts in each of the last 13 years, is testament to the resilience of the business. Key to this is that unlike many rivals, no one product dominates Amgen's $33.4bn (£24.7bn) of sales. In fact, the company boasts 14 blockbuster drugs with over $1bn sales each. This product diversity means that while its biggest selling treatment – an osteoporosis drug called Prolia that generated $4.4bn revenues last year – is expected to see rapid declines following its loss of patent protection in February, the company's top line is forecast to grow. The drugs Amgen sells cover a number of different areas, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis and rare diseases. Recent trading has been strong, too, with 21 drugs reporting record sales last year and 14 reporting double-digit growth. Amgen is experiencing particularly strong growth from cholesterol drug Repatha, which is forecast to net $2.8bn this year, and osteoporosis treatment Evenity, both of which target underserved patient groups. Sales are also soaring for cancer drug Blincyto. In terms of the problems posed by Trump, Amgen looks well placed. Tariffs should not be a major issue given it mostly manufactures in the US, where it is currently increasing capacity. Having just opened a new facility in Ohio, it plans to plough another $900m into growth in the state and a further $1bn is being spent building in North Carolina. Much of this spending is aimed at increasing production of biosimilars, which are lower cost versions of existing drugs that have lost patent protection. This focus should help position the group to deal with the US government's drug-pricing agenda because biosimilars help lower healthcare costs. Amgen has said Medicaid cuts could have a material adverse impact on some drug sales, however, the cuts passed in the big beautiful bill last week were scaled back in order to get it approved. Reassurance about prospects can also be taken from the number of top fund managers backing the stock – all among the best-performing 3pc globally according to financial publisher Citywire. A total of 14 of these individuals back the shares. The level of smart-money backing has won Amgen a place in Citywire's Global Elite Companies index, which is home to the 76 very best ideas from among the c.6,000 stocks held across the portfolios of the top managers Citywire tracks. For these backers, the potential of Amgen's drug development is a key part of its attraction. Investors have been particularly excited about a long-lasting obesity drug Amgen has begun late-stage phase III trials for, called MariTide. It produces similar levels of weight-loss as Wegovy and Zepbound, which are multibillion-dollar treatments made by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly respectively, but MariTide only needs to be injected once a month or less, compared with weekly for the existing drugs. While the potential is exciting, the market reacted negatively to recent news of high levels of nausea during early use. Amgen reckons it can address this by starting patients on lower doses. Better trial news has recently come from cancer treatments, specifically a stomach cancer drug called Bemarituzumab. Amgen is also looking to extend the uses of some of its existing blockbuster medicines. The company put a record $6bn into research and development last year pursuing new opportunities, which represented more than 18pc of sales and a 25pc increase on 2023. While Amgen's margins have nudged down over recent years, it is nevertheless highly profitable. It reported 46.9pc underlying operating margins last year. Meanwhile, solid earnings per share growth is predicted over the next two years of just over 4pc on an annualised basis. That looks an attractive package with the shares priced at 14 times forecast earnings and yielding 3.4pc, especially once the potential for positive surprises from the busy development pipeline is factored in. British buyers of the shares need to fill out the correct paperwork to minimise withholding taxes and check for any extra dealing costs with brokers. Questor says: buy Ticker: NYSE:AMGN
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Big pharma's multiple looming patent cliffs: What to know
The pharmaceutical industry is staring down a major patent cliff, with key drugs from Merck (MRK), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) set to lose exclusivity by 2030. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Anjalee Khemlani and Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist Jay Woods join Market Domination host Josh Lipton to discuss the industry's risks and how Wall Street is responding. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. The pharmaceutical industry is bracing for one of its most financially significant patent cliffs in over a decade with multiple blockbuster drugs set to lose exclusivity by 2030. Our team coverage here to break down the impacts these could have on the industry. Got Jay Woods. And we've got Yahoo finances Angela Angeli Angeli Camblani An Sorry with you. Set it up for us An. What are we looking at? We're looking at a number of the, quote unquote, biggest names, and I say that because they are still part of the big pharma club, but not necessarily ones that are favorites or they have sort of lost their steam a little bit, if you will. We're looking at Merck, Pfizer, among the biggest ones, J&J as well, Bristol Myers Squibb, all these names who have been sort of the behemoths of, you know, years past. There's questions about what their future looks like because of these patent cliffs toward the end of the decade. We know Eli Lilly sort of went through their period a few years ago. So what Lily faced before, and it's now clearly made such a huge comeback, that is what everyone else is going through right now. It's the pain of growth and questions of, what do you got for me next? And that's the question Wall Street is basically posing right now. Jay, how you thinking through it? Yeah, I mean, people don't realize this the significance of this cliff ending. Uh you can look at Merck as the perfect example. Viagra was the the big drug back in 2000. Well, guess what? It peaked when Viagra was no longer its own exclusive drug. It was generic. And now we're seeing it come to fruition. You mentioned J&J, that drug is Stelara, mentioned Bristol Myers, Eliquis and Opdivo. Eli Eli Lilly did well. Why? Because they had, as Donald Trump said, the fat shot, his words, not mine. But anyway, what we saw this week was very interesting because Merck did a small acquisition. You know, 10 billions is small for you and I, but they took over a UK company called Verona. I'm sorry, Verona. I'm thinking Corona Friday afternoon. Uh but it's a COPD drug. They're looking for exclusivity. And I think this could heat up M&A activity. The biotech sector starting to catch a bid, starting to turn around. This could be the beginning of something as we head into earning season as well. I don't know about heating up, though. I I would I would pull that back just warming up, maybe. Yeah. It is lukewarm because I mean, yes, it's a big acquisition. We also saw Pfizer make a number of huge acquisitions, 43 billion for Seagen, right? And in that, you saw the potential for blockbusters to fill that gap for their cliff. Keytruda is the nearly 30 billion revenue per year, and they can't fill it with, you know, one acquisition that way. So I think that maybe the companies haven't thought in time to fill the gaps. And it's only really when Wall Street started asking the question, when investors started asking, wait, you have a patent cliff coming up, right? What are you doing about that? Exactly. Well, I'm looking at it the trader point of view. Um, you know, yes, it's not heating up by any margin, but when it's ice cold, you have to turn on the heat. So I think we're starting to get some green shoots. I hate I hate that. But we're starting to see some activity there where people are looking, okay, what could be the next catalyst? And I think M&A is the best one because you look at companies like Pfizer, they haven't really come out with that next big thing. You know, I mean, they had COVID and we saw what they did, and you know, COVID's over. So, uh, we'll see what is next. As a trader, J&J earnings next week, walk me through that setup. Oh, man, I wish I it's a Dow stock. It's been going nowhere in a neutral pattern between 138, 168. Near term, you may get a nice little rally up to the upper end of that channel. But what will be the catalyst to break that stock out? For an investor, if you're looking for a great long-term play, you need this stock to really give you a couple quarters of activity. I don't see it. Uh, so it's one I would stay away from, but if you like good, smart, safe, you know, dividend plays in the Dow, then I give you Johnson and Johnson.
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Better Growth Buy: Eli Lilly vs. Viking Therapeutics
Eli Lilly is a leader in the weight loss drug market, generating blockbuster revenue. Viking Therapeutics recently launched a phase 3 trial for its weight loss candidate -- and could have a promising future in the market. 10 stocks we like better than Eli Lilly › Though you may think "tech stocks" when someone mentions growth, you actually can find growth stocks throughout a wide variety of industries. Even those like pharmaceuticals, often known for the steadiness of their earnings, may, through certain specialty areas, offer you the opportunity for explosive growth. And today, the perfect example is weight loss drugs. Today's $28 billion weight loss drug market is on track to reach nearly $100 billion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs Research, offering companies in the space an extremely solid opportunity over the next several years and likely beyond. Two names that have been making headlines in this field are Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX). The former is a current leader, already selling two blockbuster drugs prescribed for weight loss, and the latter is an up-and-coming player, with a candidate in late-stage trials. Which is the better growth buy today? Let's find out. Eli Lilly shares weight loss drug market leadership with fellow big pharma player Novo Nordisk. They each commercialize two drugs prescribed to people aiming to lose weight and have brought in billions of dollars in annual revenue. Here, I'll focus on Lilly. The company's drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, are actually the same compound, tirzepatide. But it's sold under the name Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and under the name Zepbound for weight loss. The drug acts by stimulating hormonal pathways involved in the control of blood sugar levels and appetite. Thanks to the efficacy of tirzepatide, demand has soared, even surpassing supply until Lilly expanded its production capacity. But Lilly isn't sitting still in the area of weight loss. The company also is developing other drug candidates that may improve upon tirzepatide. The closest to market right now is orforglipron, Lilly's oral candidate for weight loss that recently delivered positive phase 3 trial results. If approved, it would be the only oral weight loss drug of its class that doesn't require strict food and water restrictions. Lilly aims on applying for regulatory review by the end of this year. All of this could result in more growth for Lilly this year and well into the future. Viking Therapeutics is a biotech company specializing in metabolic conditions, and it's made great progress with its obesity drug candidate, VK2735. The potential drug, in subcutaneous form, recently entered a phase 3 trial, and an oral form is involved in a phase 2 trial. These candidates are in the same class as tirzepatide, so work in the same way. Investors have shown their excitement about Viking's program in the past: When the company reported positive phase 2 data for the subcutaneous VK2735 last year, the stock soared more than 120% in one trading session. The stock hasn't maintained those gains, but the movement shows that investors are interested in the program -- and more good news ahead could boost the stock again. Now you might wonder why investors are so excited about Viking if there already are other successful weight loss drugs on the market -- and Lilly even is likely to reach commercialization with an oral weight loss drug ahead of Viking. This is because demand is high, and this is set to continue, so there is plenty of room for more than a couple of companies to succeed in the space. Investors also have speculated about the idea of a big pharma company acquiring Viking to get in on this high growth market. Lilly has the first-to-market advantage, is closer to the finish line with an oral candidate, and already is generating major revenue from its weight loss portfolio. Viking, if successful through clinical trials, could carve out market share and deliver major revenue growth down the road -- or the company could be acquired, offering investors another way to potentially gain. Each company offers certain advantages. Now let's answer our question. If all goes well for Viking, it could represent the better growth buy as, starting from zero product revenue today, this player could see revenue soar if and when it brings a weight loss drug to market. And we've seen that Viking's stock price is very reactive to news, meaning the stock could skyrocket in such a scenario. But, if you go the Viking route, you should be comfortable with risk as uncertainty remains: The company hasn't yet reached the finish line with a product. If you're more of a cautious investor, though, don't worry. You may opt for Lilly as, even though it's climbed 140% over the past three years, it still could have plenty of room to run over the long term thanks to this weight loss drug growth story. Before you buy stock in Eli Lilly, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Eli Lilly wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $699,558!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $976,677!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025 Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk and Viking Therapeutics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Better Growth Buy: Eli Lilly vs. Viking Therapeutics was originally published by The Motley Fool
Forbes
27-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
40% Upside For Merck Stock?
INDIA - 2025/05/20: In this photo illustration, a MERCK logo is seen displayed on a smartphone and ... More in the background. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Although Merck (NYSE:MRK) is confronted with the unavoidable Keytruda patent cliff in 2028, the company is strategically positioning itself for further growth by diversifying and expanding its pipeline. Earlier this month, we highlighted how Keytruda is a ticking time bomb for Merck stock. In this analysis, we explore the potential upside for Merck despite its short-term hurdles. If you are looking for upside with less volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative—it has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns over 91% since its inception. Separately, check out – What's Happening With BBAI Stock? Pipeline Depth: $50 Billion in Potential While oncology contributes a significant part to Merck's revenue, its top-selling drug will confront biosimilar challenges after 2028. Nevertheless, Merck is set for substantial growth, with 20 new "blockbuster" drugs under development that collectively possess a sales potential of $50 billion. This strong pipeline indicates a strategic change from the company's dependence on Keytruda, seeking to create varied revenue streams across different therapeutic domains. Several promising candidates are fueling this potential: Recently Launched Drugs and Vaccines: In addition to the pipeline, Merck's relatively recent drugs and vaccines are already making a significant contribution to revenue: This strategic emphasis on a broad and impactful pipeline, alongside the robust performance of new launches, positions Merck for sustainable growth and a decreased reliance on a single product. The figures suggest that Merck's diversification strategy might be effective. If Winrevair meets its peak sales target and the wider pipeline realizes its potential, the company could significantly counterbalance Keytruda's decline and witness sales growth. The timeline is tight—most growth drivers need to materialize before 2028—but the groundwork is established. Also, see – Nektar Therapeutics Is Up 150%: What's Happening With NKTR Stock? Investment Implications Merck's upside potential depends on its capability to execute across several vital areas: successfully moving its pipeline forward, expanding into new regions, and making strategic acquisitions. The company has a demonstrated history of identifying and developing blockbuster drugs, and its current strategy directly addresses its previous dependence on Keytruda. Merck's acquisition strategy clearly reflects its commitment to constructing a portfolio extending beyond oncology. For instance, the recent $680 million acquisition of Harpoon Therapeutics enhances its expanding immunotherapy portfolio. Likewise, the Acceleron deal instantly boosted revenue with Winrevair. This tactic of acquiring late-stage assets offers both immediate revenue and long-term growth potential. With a cash reserve exceeding $9 billion, Merck is well-positioned to pursue additional acquisitions that can drive revenue expansion. For investors, this represents a compelling turnaround narrative: a company transitioning effectively from single-drug reliance to diversified growth. The upcoming 12 to 18 months will be pivotal in determining if Merck can fulfill its pipeline commitments and sustain growth momentum past 2028. In addition, look at – What's Happening With Amgen Stock? Valuation and Upside Potential Currently, MRK stock trades at around $80, valuing the company at 3.2 times its trailing revenues. This falls below its three-year average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.4 times, which suggests that investors have likely considered some of the obstacles Merck might encounter beyond 2028, along with near-term worries regarding its Gardasil vaccine. Our dashboard on Merck's valuation ratios provides further insights. While Gardasil is facing temporary challenges in China, sales have risen in every other region. The market pause in China appears to be temporary, providing additional upside as demand stabilizes. If MRK stock were to revert to its historical P/S ratio, it would result in a price exceeding $110, indicating nearly 40% upside potential. This situation with Merck underscores the critical necessity of establishing a resilient investment portfolio that effectively balances risk and reward. Merck's scenario serves as a potent reminder that even highly successful pharmaceutical companies inevitably encounter patent cliffs, which can drastically shift their growth paths. Merck's dependence on Keytruda, while currently its greatest strength, also poses its most substantial near-term risk. Although Merck is strategically addressing this with a pipeline that entails a $50 billion potential, there are significant risks associated with such a transition. Investors must evaluate the company's present strong performance against the certainty of forthcoming challenges, making diversification across multiple stocks essential for managing this type of concentrated risk. Our Trefis High Quality (HQ) portfolio exemplifies this strategy, having significantly outperformed the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, achieving over 91% returns since its inception. Balancing risk and reward is precisely why diversifying across multiple stocks is vital.
Wall Street Journal
17-06-2025
- Health
- Wall Street Journal
Fresenius Medical Care CEO Says Company Could Benefit From Obesity Drugs
Fresenius Medical Care could end up benefiting from blockbuster obesity drugs, according to its chief executive, contrary to concerns that such treatments could be negative for the dialysis specialist. 'I believe [the effect] is neutral to positive, not negative,' Fresenius Medical Care's Chief Executive Helen Giza said in an interview.
