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‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.' BofA says a ‘key tail risk' is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off
‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.' BofA says a ‘key tail risk' is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.' BofA says a ‘key tail risk' is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off

In a market landscape still fixated on fears of stagflation and modest recoveries, Bank of America is sounding a contrarian—and decidedly bullish—note. According to new note from BofA Research analysts, the next phase for the U.S. economy and equities might not be a routine recovery, but an outright boom. 'Today a confluence of factors argue that the key tail risk that may not be priced in is not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom,' they said. 5 reasons for a boom BofA analysts cited five pillars supporting this more bullish case. First is political will, arguing that with U.S. midterm elections a few quarters away, policymakers have strong incentive for near-term, pro-growth initiatives. Second is Washington's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (OBBBA) targeting domestic manufacturing. Third is the massive overseas jolt gathering, with Germany recently enacting the largest stimulus package in EU history, while global reflationary forces are building elsewhere. Fourth, BofA sees a broad expansion of capital expenditures, with hyperscalers such as Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet set for nearly $700 billion in capital expenditures between 2025 and 2026. In addition, more non-U.S. companies plan to expand manufacturing capacity in the U.S., while municipalities are focused on updating aging infrastructure. Fifth, BofA cited its proprietary 'Regime Indicator,' a blend of macro signals including corporate revisions to earnings per share, GDP forecasts, and other emerging signals. It's on the verge of flipping from a 'Downturn' to a 'Recovery'—a change that historically presages a rally in value stocks. The dominant narrative in this indicator remains conservative, according to the BofA team, led by Savita Subramanian. In June, 70% of fund managers still predicted stagflation, with only 10% foreseeing a 'boom' of above-trend growth and inflation. Yet, BofA argues, the catalyst for an upside breakout is real and imminent. If the Regime Indicator does indeed flip to 'Recovery' in early August, historical precedent suggests a rapid rotation is likely. So how healthy are these five factors actually looking? Will there be enough spending? Top economies have already pledged massive stimulus. In March, China unveiled plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($179 billion) in special treasury bonds this year, plus 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special-purpose bonds. Meanwhile, much of the EU's stimulus still flowing from the earlier NextGenerationEU package is worth up to €806.9 billion (about $880 billion) through 2026. Major European economies have supplemented this with additional investments and, in some cases, targeted fiscal expansion. Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia have adopted smaller-scale but still significant fiscal measures in 2025 to address sector-specific slowdowns, energy security, and household purchasing power. Most are focusing on targeted transfers, green investments, and industrial support. Meanwhile, American companies have announced billions in new U.S. manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology investments since Trump took office, but these initiatives were announced before passage of the OBBBA. Many investments are phased and slated for completion over the next decade, and it's unclear how much can come online soon enough to play a role in the boom that BofA Research is projecting. Some of them, such as OpenAI's $500 billion Stargate project, are reportedly struggling to raise funding to match the big numbers initially announced. For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Error al recuperar los datos Inicia sesión para acceder a tu cartera de valores Error al recuperar los datos Error al recuperar los datos Error al recuperar los datos Error al recuperar los datos

Pasco woman shoots, kills husband while singing ‘Click, click, boom': affidavit
Pasco woman shoots, kills husband while singing ‘Click, click, boom': affidavit

Yahoo

time16-05-2025

  • Yahoo

Pasco woman shoots, kills husband while singing ‘Click, click, boom': affidavit

HUDSON, Fla. (WFLA)— A Hudson woman was charged with murder after shooting her husband while singing 'Click, click, boom,' according to an arrest affidavit. Dusty Southwell, 49, called 911 on May 14 around 6:26 p.m. and told dispatch her husband was 'dead,' and later said 'I pulled the trigger,' and the firearm she used was located inside the home on a nightstand. Deputies arrived at the home located on the 13000 block of Judy Avenue in Hidson and found Dusty outside. Pasco woman shoots, kills husband while singing 'Click, click, boom': affidavit DeSantis signs fluoride ban bill in Dade City concerning dentists PSO deputies went inside the home and discovered Joshua Southwell dead in the shower inside the master bathroom, according to the arrest affidavit. During an interview with Dusty, she stated her husband of 10 years was in the shower, and she grabbed his handgun and began singing 'Click, click, boom,' which is a song she sings with her husband. Dusty told deputies her husband turned the shower off and was in the process of drying himself with a towel when she pointed the weapon, which she thought was unloaded, at her husband and pulled the trigger once, hitting him. The affidavit said Dusty checked on her husband before calling her daughter and then 911. 'Based on the known facts and circumstances, Dusty Southwell intentionally fired the handgun in the direction of her husband, without a premeditated design, which was an act imminently dangerous and evincing a depraved mind regardless of human life which resulted in the death of her husband,' the arrest affidavit said. Dusty was unable to tell deputies why she took possession of the firearm, according to PSO. Speaking with deputies, Dusty repeatedly denied being involved in an argument or physical altercation with her husband prior to the shooting. Dusty was arrested on Thursday and charged with murder/homicide-not premeditated. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Former Bucs player among 255 arrested in ‘Fool Around and Find Out' undercover investigation
Former Bucs player among 255 arrested in ‘Fool Around and Find Out' undercover investigation

Yahoo

time16-05-2025

  • Yahoo

Former Bucs player among 255 arrested in ‘Fool Around and Find Out' undercover investigation

POLK COUNTY, Fla. (WFLA) — The Polk County Sheriff's Office announced Thursday that 255 were arrested in a nine-day, multi-agency undercover investigation called 'Fool Around and Find Out' that focused on human trafficking, child predators and illegal immigration. Detectives said they worked with investigators from several different sheriff's offices, police departments, Homeland Security, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement during the undercover investigation. Pasco woman shoots, kills husband while singing 'Click, click, boom': affidavit The sheriff's office said 141 suspects were charged with soliciting prostitutes, 93 suspects were charged with offering to commit prostitution, 10 suspects were charged with crimes related to prostitution and 11 suspects were accused of traveling to meet a minor for sex or otherchild-sex-related crimes. 'This is the highest number of suspects we've ever arrested during a single undercover operation – in addition to these 244 arrests, we also arrested 11 child predators who solicited who they thought were children online in order to sexually batter them. The online prostitution industry enables traffickers and allows for the continued victimization of those who are being trafficked. Our goal is to identify victims, offer them help, and arrest those who are fueling the exploitation of human beings (Johns) and those profiting from the exploitation of human beings. Prostitution is not a victimless crime – it results in exploitation, disease, drug and alcohol addiction, violence, and broken families,' Sheriff Grady Judd said. Judd said Adarius Taylor, a former NFL player who played for the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns, was arrested in the operation. 'The dude made a lot of mistakes. He not only brought his 6-year-old child out to the operation, but he left his 6-year-old child in the car when he went to do the operation,' Judd said. 'The 6-year-old child has a lot of mental issues, and he left this child alone, who should have never been left alone because of medical conditions.' Officials with the Department of Children and Families took possession of the child and called the child's mom. Judd said the child is doing fine. 'This guy here, obviously, he must have hit one too many people as a linebacker because his brain cells are scrambled. He shouldn't have shown up in the first place, but to leave that child — my goodness. So he picked up a child neglect charge along with everything else,' the Polk sheriff said. Deputies said nine suspects showed up at an undercover location in Polk County at separate times to sexually batter children. Investigators said one of the suspects, identified as Gregory Cooper, sent social media messages to an undercover detective posing as a 14-year-old boy. The sheriff's office said Cooper's online dating profile said he was a 'daddy looking for a younger boy.' They said he sent explicit sexual messages describing what he wanted to do with the boy, and said that he would be patient. He brought orange soda and gummy snacks to the undercover location, investigators said. Eric Corliss was also arrested in the operation, according to Polk deputies. They said he sent messages to an undercover detective posing as a family member who was selling the sexual services of a 15-year-old girl. Investigators also said Corliss was soliciting undercover detectives who were posing online as prostitutes. 'He asked the detective, 'Are you with law enforcement' and then asked for the address of where the girl would be offered to him in exchange for money,' the sheriff's office said. 'While Corliss told the detective he was en route, he diverted to another undisclosed location to meet with who he thought was a prostitute, and was taken into custody during that part of the investigation,' Polk deputies said. According to the sheriff's office, Corliss told detectives that he is a regional executive at the Red Cross and is married. 'It is extremely disturbing when we encounter nasty child predators like these who are very eager to have sex with children,' Judd said. 'This is why we conduct these types of undercover operations. Keeping children safe is our number one priority, and we appreciate our partnering agencies, without whom we would not be as successful in apprehending these dangerous offenders.' During the investigation, four possible human trafficking victims were identified, the sheriff's office said. One suspect was active-duty military and 13 were veterans. The sheriff's office said several suspects were in the medical profession, including doctors and nurses. A few of the suspects were arrested previously in similar sting operations. Of the 255 arrested, 36 were in the country illegally, according to Polk deputies. Deputies said several suspects left their wives or girlfriends at home, or the women thought their partners were at work, visiting a friend, or going to the gym. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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