Latest news with #capitalcities
SBS Australia
17-07-2025
- Business
- SBS Australia
'Human catastrophe': What lower birth rates could mean for Australia's future
Australia is facing the possibility of population decline and deaths outpacing births, which could have long-term consequences for the labour force and economy. New data analysis from financial firm KPMG has found that while the number of births in 2024 increased from the previous year, it is still below pre-pandemic levels. This means Australia is now in the midst of an ageing population and at a "tipping point" in maintaining our way of living. Australia's changing birth rates The KPMG analysis examined birth data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and analysed Australia's fertility rate, which is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. According to KPMG, Australia's fertility rate now sits at 1.51 in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain population growth. There were 292,500 births nationally in the last year, up from 285,000 the previous year. But birth rates are well below those in previous years, with more than 300,000 births recorded each year between 2013 and 2019. The analysis found that birth rates are declining more in metropolitan areas compared to regions, with the number of births in capital cities declining by 6.5 per cent between 2019 and 2024. KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said finances and the cost of living, particularly in major cities, are key factors driving this reduction. "Rising rents, mortgage payments and childcare costs in the metro areas are putting a handbrake on people's plans to start or grow their family," he said. "Instead, regional communities are continuing to emerge as popular places to live, work and raise a family, with affordability now top of mind for many Australians." The number of births in Australia has declined by 3.8 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Source: SBS News Liz Allen, demographer at the ANU Centre for Social Policy Research, said while the analysis is based on preliminary data, not official statistics, it is concerning for Australia's population. She said Australia's fertility rate has been trending toward below-replacement levels since the 1970s, and is now getting toward "critical territory". "We've essentially hit rock bottom, and trying to come back from that is going to be incredibly difficult," she said. "It will be a task that requires enormous policy and political intervention." Allen said many young Australians may want to have children, but are either changing their plans or opting out due to the challenges of having children, due to economic or environmental concerns. Allen describes this as a "constrained choice". "At the heart of all of this is a lack of hope, dwindling hope, and a deep uncertainty and fear about tomorrow," she said. "There are a number of very big issues confronting Australians; housing affordability, economic insecurity, gender inequality and climate change come together and weigh quite heavily on people and are at the forefront of people's decision-making processes when considering having a child or having a subsequent child." Why do birth rates matter? The key concerns surrounding birth rates are linked to population growth and an ageing population. Allen said by the mid-2050s, the number of deaths in Australia could exceed the number of births, which could lead to population decline becoming a "real prospect". This could mean fewer people in the labour force working and paying taxes in Australia, which could put pressure on healthcare systems and government services. Australia's fertility rate has increased slightly since 2023, but remains below its 2013 level. Source: SBS News "Currently, Australia's government funds are largely fuelled by individual income tax," Allen said. "That means that if we were to see an ageing population and fewer people ageing into the workforce, our bottom line by way of the government budget will be reduced. "We will have to do more with less government money going forward." Allen believes it is unlikely Australia will witness a "bounce back" in the average number of births per woman without "drastic and very swift" policy changes in areas such as housing affordability, economic security, gender equality, and climate action. But Rawnsley said the data indicated "cause for optimism" that birth rates could recover further if there is growth in disposable income. "While many Australians are still holding back due to cost-of-living pressures, those with a little more cash in the bank are now turning their attention to having a family again. The baby bounce back is absolutely on, with the birth rate set to reach 300,000 over the next year," he said. "However, it will still be some time before we exceed the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21 st century." Birth rate across the world Australia is not the only country facing the challenges of an ageing population. According to a 2024 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the fertility rate dropped from 3.3 to 1.5 between 1960 and 2022 across all OECD countries. The country with the lowest fertility rate at the time was South Korea, which had an average of 0.7 children per woman in 2023. "Australia, like much of the world, is facing a human catastrophe," Allen said. "The trouble is that we have kicked the can down the road so far now that we are confronted with multiple crises. "We're now at a tipping point and we either fall into the precipice ... or we do something and we bridge a path forward [but] I'm not seeing any effort really to get us across this tipping point."
News.com.au
15-07-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Nine homes in three years: Australia's rental crisis laid bare
Jess Preston was just 17 when she moved into her first rental – an arrangement so dodgy her landlord insisted on cash-only payments, banned cooking indoors and ultimately faced the tribunal after Ms Preston took legal action. 'I was young so I didn't know these weren't things that were not OK to have as a condition,' Ms Preston said. After escaping an unsafe home as a teenager, Ms Preston, now 22 and studying at university in Canberra, has moved nine times in just three years, spending part of that time in shelters and on the streets. Despite finally landing in a stable home, the cost of rent has left her making impossible choices just to stay afloat. 'I usually skip lunch or breakfast, I went to the chemist for cold and flu tablets this week and I could afford it this time but I never know about next time,' she said. 'I always have in the back of my mind, will I have to drop out of uni again and go back to full-time work? 'The worst thing is, my story isn't uncommon.' Ms Preston is far from alone. A new report by national housing campaign Everybody's Home lays bare the worsening rental crisis in Australia. The Out of Reach report, released on Wednesday, reveals average weekly rents in capital cities have surged 57 per cent from $473 in 2015 to $742 in 2025. The sharpest increases came just in the past three years with a rise of 34 per cent. Meanwhile, the proportion of social housing has plummeted to a record low of 4.1 per cent, down from 4.7 per cent in 2013. In cities once considered affordable, the situation is even more dire. Rents in Adelaide have jumped 81 per cent over the last 10 years, with Hobart not far behind at 76 per cent. 'This is a national crisis that is now pricing out everyday people right across the country. This report paints a clear picture of the damage that has been done, and without change it will only get worse,' Everybody's Home spokeswoman Maiy Azize said. 'As the federal government has walked away from providing housing, more and more people are being forced into an already strained private rental market which then pushes up rents right across the board. 'With more Australians renting than ever before and being priced out of the private housing market, the need for more low-cost rentals is essential.' Ms Preston has fought for years to remain housed while juggling studies and scraping by on Centrelink payments of just under $900 a fortnight, less than her $1000 rent. 'The worst thing is it's also not just rents increasing, it's the cost of moving multiple times,' she said. Ms Preston has fought back, starting petitions to change the dispute handling process, and facing landlords at the ACT Civil and Administrative Tribunal. But the system, she says, is stacked against renters. 'Sometimes tenants need to know their rights better than agents,' she said. 'If you have a concession card you get your fees covered but just because someone doesn't have a concession card doesn't mean they can afford to go to the tribunal. 'And even if the landlord pays the fine, they can just kick you out at the end of the lease so no one wants to face that.' She believes many Australians underestimate how widespread housing insecurity has become. 'People look down on those on Centrelink, but most of us don't want to be on it.' Everybody's Home is calling on the federal government to act decisively to set ambitious social housing targets and make proper investments to fix the crisis. 'If we want one in ten homes to be social housing, we need to build an extra 54,000 social homes every year for 20 years,' Ms Azize said. 'We need government action that matches the scale of the housing crisis. Australian governments have stepped up and mobilised during other emergencies, from Covid-19 to natural disasters, 'Housing should be no different.'
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Renter with $5,000 in savings reveals surprising money message: 'Have it worse'
A Sydney renter has opened up about why he decided to move back home and why he has accepted he will 'never' buy a property in Australia. Rental prices remain at record highs across all the capitals, but new data has found the market is finally starting to shift. The 30-year-old was stopped in the street by Coposit, a property app that has gone viral online for asking people to share how much money they have in savings. The man shared he had $5,000 in savings and had recently moved back home due to the current cost of living. 'I was renting, but I received two noise complaints. So I started looking up rentals and I was like God damn,' he said. RELATED Renter on 'good income' pushed back into share house as prices hit $1,200-a-week Major banks reveal updated RBA interest rate cut predictions after 'surprise' hold ATO warning for millions over common $4,400 car tax deduction mistake The man said he decided not to stress himself out by trying to find a rental now and moved back home to his dad's place to save more money. 'Some people have it better, some people have it worse. I make some pretty good money, but I know most people on the average income would be struggling. I have accepted never buying property in Australia,' he said. Average Sydney home values hit $1,182,000 in June, according to PropTrack, with prices up 0.5 per cent during the month. National home prices rose 0.4 per cent in the month, pushing values to record highs with a median of $821, man said he wasn't driven by making a lot of money and was instead focused on finding pleasure in hobbies like playing music, martial arts and going to the beach. 'Just living frugally because it is so expensive. I don't drink or go out. I'm all right, but I know most people would probably struggle,' he said. Since moving back home, the man said he was saving 'five times as much' money as when he was renting. Finder research released back in 2023 found 13 per cent of Australians, or 2.6 million people, had moved back in with their family or had an adult child move back in the past 12 months. The Coposit video has racked up thousands of views online, with some sharing they were finding the cost of living difficult at the moment. 'I make six figures, live in Sydney and the cost of living is why I'm broke. It's so true that the middle class is now the working poor,' one wrote. 'Sydney is one of the most expensive cities in the world. It's so common that a lot of people earn 6 figures but don't have substantial savings. Unless they still live at home,' another added. According to Westpac, customers aged 30 to 34 have $21,394 in their savings account as an average balance and $1,104 as a median balance. The median can be a more accurate average as it strips out very high and very low balances. House and unit rents remain at record highs across most capital cities, Domain's latest Rent Report found. Asking rents for the typical Sydney house hit a record high of $780 a week in June, while units reached $740 a week. Both are up 2.8 per cent annually. House and unit rents have both reached $650 a week across the combined capitals, with house rentals remaining steady over the year and unit rents up 3.2 per cent. In a positive sign, though, rental growth has slowed across the country. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane house rents recorded their slowest June quarter growth in years. For the first time since 2019, house rents across the combined capitals have remained stable for four consecutive quarters. 'The data signals a much-needed pause for renters, and shows the market is shifting,' Domain's Chief of Research and Economics, Dr Nicola Powell, said. 'Cost-of-living pressures have reached a tipping point. Renters are maxed out and landlords are being forced to hold steady. "We're also seeing a shift in demand — renters are downsizing or choosing units to stretch their budgets, which is why unit rents are now rising faster than houses." Renters are still facing tough competition, though, with national vacancy rates still below 2 per cent. Darwin has the tightest market in the country, with a vacancy rate of just 0.3 per cent. However, Powell said early signs of investor activity and first-home buyer support could slowly help ease supply in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
Daily Mail
01-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
The Australian cities where house prices are tipped to REALLY surge as interest rates are cut
House prices are expected to soar at a faster pace in capital cities compared with regional areas as interest rates are cut several more times this year. The price of homes with a backyard have climbed by three per cent in capital cities during the past year to a new peak of $1.034million, new Cotality data showed. But during the last financial year, regional house prices edged up by 5.5 per cent to an all-time high of $700,000. Nonetheless, Cotality's research director Tim Lawless said more rate cuts were more likely to buoy capital city housing markets between now and September. 'It is looking increasingly likely that the quarterly growth trend will once again favour capital city markets over the coming months,' he said. 'Underneath the headline results, the combined capital cities have posted a stronger monthly growth outcome relative to the combined regional areas of Australia for a second consecutive month, following a period of outperformance across regional Australia.' The futures market is expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 3.85 per cent now to 3.1 per cent by the end of 2025, which would see the cash rate fall to a level last seen in February 2023. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's re-elected government also has a plan to allow all first-home buyers to get into property with a small, five per cent deposit without having to pay lender's mortgage insurance. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said this was likely to boost house prices. 'More RBA rate cuts along with the ongoing housing shortage and the anticipation of more support for first home buyers are expected to drive further gains in average prices this year,' he said. Adelaide was Australia's strongest performing capital city market during the past year with median house prices soaring by 7.7 per cent to $888,869. Perth was in second place with prices climbing by 6.5 per cent to $855,395. Darwin, Australia's most affordable capital city market, was in third place with 6.4 per cent growth taking the mid-point house price to $622,838. Brisbane was next with annual growth of 6.3 per cent, taking prices to $1.011million. Hobart, which peaked in 2022, saw its mid-point house price grow by 2.3 per cent to $718,406. Growth has been slower in Australia's traditionally more expensive markets. Sydney house prices grew by just 1.7 per cent to $1.497million. In Melbourne annual growth was flat, taking prices to $947,611 in a market which peaked in 2022. Canberra, another weak market, saw its house prices rise by 0.5 per cent to $980,802. Immigration levels last year slowed to 340,800, down from record high levels of 547,300 in 2023, on a net basis factoring in long-term arrivals and departures. Dr Oliver said this would temper demand for housing as Donald Trump's tariffs weighed down buyer sentiment. 'Poor affordability, slowing population growth and a dampening impact on economic growth from Trump's trade war will act as constraints,' he said. Despite the population slow, Dr Oliver said Australia was 300,000 homes short, with building activity unlikely to match the National Housing Accord's annual target of 240,000 for 2024 to 2029. 'The shortfall is likely to remain for some time to come,' he said.
SBS Australia
07-06-2025
- Business
- SBS Australia
Housing heat: The city picking up pace as prices break records
National home prices hit a new record in May, growing by 0.39 per cent, while Melbourne had a monthly growth of 0.79 per cent. Source: AAP / Diego Fedele Australian home prices have continued to rise, reaching a new record high last month, amid falling interest rates. While all capital cities saw prices increase in May — with Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin all now at price peaks — Melbourne had the strongest monthly rise of 0.79 per cent, according to PropTrack's latest Home Price Index. The report, released this week, states national home prices lifted 0.39 per cent — the fifth consecutive month of growth — meaning they're up 4.12 per cent year-on-year. "With interest rates falling, price momentum has increased and broadened, with all capitals seeing prices lift in May," REA Group Senior Economist and report author Eleanor Creagh said. 'Price growth across the capitals is starting to converge. Melbourne, which previously lagged the other capitals, is now seeing home price growth pick up." Melbourne is continuing to recover after a "prolonged period of softer growth", the report says, with the median home value sitting at $782,000. However this remains 2.85 per cent below the city's peak. It was also the only capital city to record a drop (-0.38 percent) in year-on-year home prices in May. Meanwhile, Perth's median home value was $787,000 — representing the first time in a decade that it has overtaken Melbourne. Perth had a monthly rise of 0.27 per cent, while Brisbane lifted 0.24 per cent. "Cities such as Perth and Brisbane are now seeing growth moderate after strong outperformance. The growth seen in all capital cities is underpinned by improved buyer sentiment and renewed confidence following interest rate cuts," Creagh said. Along with Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney led the monthly rises, at 0.52 and 0.39 per cent. Outside the capital cities, regional prices rose 0.25 per cent, according to the report, with annual growth of 5.19 per cent outpacing the combined capitals (3.71 per cent). "With further price increases and rate cuts expected, prospective buyers are moving off the sidelines and accelerating their purchasing decisions." Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned Australia to boost housing supply and address falling affordability as it revealed a downgrade to its economic growth forecast for 2025. It said Australia's gross domestic product would grow at 1.8 per cent this year, down 10 basis points from its prediction in March, as United States President Donald Trump's tariffs hit demand for Australian exports — especially if China experiences a marked slowdown. The organisation downgraded its global growth forecasts from 3.1 per cent to 2.9 per cent this year. But economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.2 per cent next year — an increase from its prediction earlier this year and in line with the OECD's estimate of Australia's economic potential. The OECD's forecast for 2025 is lower than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 2.1 per cent but in line with its 2026 prediction. Inflation will remain close to target, averaging 2.3 per cent over 2025 and 2026, the OECD projected. That's below RBA estimates, which predict headline inflation accelerating to 3.1 per cent by the end of the year. The OECD said the central bank would be warranted to continue easing interest rates, but must be nimble to change path in case of unexpected external shocks. Looking ahead, Creagh warned to expect further home price growth throughout the year. "While stretched affordability will remain a constraint, a chronic lack of new housing supply, population growth, and targeted buyer incentives are expected to keep upward pressure on prices," Creagh said. "In combination with interest rates continuing to move lower, these factors are likely to drive further price growth throughout the remainder of 2025.' — With additional reporting by the Australian Associated Press.
