Latest news with #consumerConfidence
CNA
09-07-2025
- Business
- CNA
Thai central bank sees economy slowing in second half as tariffs hit exports
BANGKOK :Thailand's economy is expected to slow in the second half of the year and faces heightened uncertainty, the central bank said on Wednesday, as consumer confidence hit the lowest level in more than two years. Thai exports, a key driver of the economy, were expected to contract 4 per cent on a yearly basis in the second half of the year as a result of the tariffs imposed by the United States, the Bank of Thailand said. The United States was Thailand's largest export market last year, accounting for 18.3 per cent of total shipments and reaching a value of $55 billion. Washington says its trade deficit with Thailand hit $45.6 billion in 2024. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy faces tariffs of 36 per cent from Washington if a deal cannot be reached before August 1. Uncertainty around tariffs and government stability pushed consumer confidence to its lowest in 28 months, falling for a fifth consecutive month, a university survey showed on Wednesday. The economy is growing below its potential, and is forecast to expand 2.3 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2026, deputy central bank governor Piti Disyatat said, adding those forecasts had already factored in the headwinds. In the first five months of 2025, exports rose 14.9 per cent from a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed, as companies rushed to deliver their products before a 90-day tariff pause came to an end. That pause has now been extended to August. The central bank forecast exports to rise 4 per cent this year but drop 2 per cent next year. A shippers' group on Wednesday cut its export growth forecast from a range of 0 per cent to 1 per cent from 1 per cent to 3 per cent seen earlier. Thai economic growth and financial conditions were held back by several factors and monetary policy alone had limited efficacy when addressing those issues, minutes from the Bank of Thailand's June 25 monetary policy meeting showed on Wednesday. At the meeting, the BOT's monetary policy committee voted 6 to 1 to keep the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent, after back-to-back cuts in February and April. "Targeted measures in conjunction with business adaptation were deemed necessary," it said. At the review, the stronger-than-expected start to the year saw the BOT lift its central-case economic growth forecast to 2.3 per cent for 2025, almost matching last year's 2.5 per cent and more optimistic than some market analysts. The next rate review is on August 13.
ABC News
06-07-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Potential 'market meltdown' a reason for as many as four RBA interest rate cuts
The potential for lower interest rates has put a spring in Nia Pandoulis's step. She runs Soult Australia, based in Sydney, selling clothing and accessories for the warmer months of the year. "We create things that you would take to Europe, you would take to the beach, you would take to that holiday," she said. Ms Pandoulis juggled a full-time job with her fashion side hustle and hoped lower interest rates would help transform it into a larger business. "I think our consumers would have a lot more confidence in what they're buying and what they're looking to buy. "And we, as a business, would benefit without those additional costs. "If we want to grow and get ourselves out there in that market, we would really benefit from [lower interest rates]." Ms Pandoulis is among millions of Australians hoping for interest rate relief this week. The Reserve Bank is widely tipped to drop interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.6 per cent on Tuesday, and all big four banks are now forecasting a quarter of a percentage point cut to the cash rate. According to interest rate comparison website Mozo, this means owner-occupier borrowers with a $500,000 mortgage could save $76 a month, or $918 over a year, on their home loan repayments. This is based on the average variable home loan rate of 6.15 per cent per annum in the Mozo database for owner-occupiers, paying principal and interest with an 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio. Economists say lower inflation and gathering global economic storm clouds are supporting the case for a Tuesday interest rate cut. "It looks like a no-brainer that the Reserve Bank's going to cut the cash rate again at its July board meeting," AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said. "The cash rate is currently at 3.85 per cent. There's more than a 90 per cent chance priced into financial markets … that we will see that cut to 3.6 per cent." Ms Mousina said AMP expected several interest rate cuts to follow later this year. In the statement accompanying the RBA's May interest rates decision, the RBA's Monetary Policy Board noted "a severe downside scenario". "[It] noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia," the statement said. Ms Mousina said a major financial market correction was possible, which would further support the central bank's case for looser monetary policy. "And given that the starting point is already share markets at a record high around the world, increased risk of volatility, investor uneasiness and uncertainty about future economic and trade policy, particularly from the US, you'd have to say there's a very big risk that markets may fall by 10 per cent or 15 per cent." AMP forecasts as many as four RBA interest rate cuts by early next year. "And then one in early 2026. "That means that we're expecting the cash rate to reach a bottom of 2.85 per cent, and that's close to our estimate of where we think the neutral level of interest rates is. "That's the sweet spot that the Reserve Bank wants to reach." The "neutral level" of interest rates is where the Reserve Bank perceives total demand in the economy equals supply, and there is no upward or downward pressure on price growth for goods and services. Other economists are not so confident the Reserve Bank will drop interest rates. Independent economist Sherman Chan thought the Reserve Bank might wait until August. "The Reserve Bank has made it pretty clear that the quarterly CPI series is their preferred measure [of inflation], so there is a chance they may wait until the June quarter CPI data before they decide," she said. "That would be in August." Whether or not the Reserve Bank lowers interest rates on Tuesday, it is likely the central bank will lower interest rates further in the months to come. That is potentially disappointing for Australians looking to get a foot on the property ladder. "Since rates started to decline, we've seen cities like Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth up more than 2 per cent," said Cotality's head of research Eliza Owen. "[Also] Adelaide almost up 2 per cent, but the biggest benefactor has been Darwin — up 6 per cent." Property prices, she said, could go higher as interest rates fall. "It's pretty likely that if you see a reduction in interest rates, you're going to see an increase in housing values," Ms Owen said. "A reduction in interest rates is kind of like a price cut on the cost of debt. It is a bitter pill for Nia Pandoulis, who is hoping to be able to buy a property at some point in the future. "I do want a home one day," she said. "Especially for our generation, we've already got our HECS debts, we're already indebted from our 20s, and then we're working full-time jobs, and maybe we're starting up businesses. "So the prospect of a home is really not on the cards right now. "As someone in Sydney, I think the reality is that it would get pushed further and further out, and I would like to stay where I grew up." The Reserve Bank will announce its decision on interest rates Tuesday at 2:30pm AEST.
SBS Australia
06-07-2025
- Business
- SBS Australia
Australians in '$280 million Euro summer surge' — and emerging holiday hotspots
European summer spending is set for a rebound, one of Australia's biggest banks predicts, with travellers also looking to other destinations to escape the winter at home. ANZ says customers travelling to Europe across June, July, and August will spend up to $280 million — a projected 10 per cent increase compared to 2024 which it says is based on early trends in hotel and airline bookings. It says pre-travel spending data showed that between January and May, hotel and airline bookings were up 11 per cent on the same period last year. The projected total spend won't match the record of $313 million set in 2023, ANZ said. But it will be an uptick from 2024 where, despite more than 100,000 of its customers travelling to Europe, total spend and average spend per customer were down 19 per cent and 13 per cent respectively, compared to the previous year. Beyond saying travel to Europe among its customers had "dipped" in 2024, ANZ in its statement did not explain why it believes there might be an increase in total spending this year — although not one that would match the 2023 record. Some measures show consumer confidence — which predicts how consumers feel about the economy and their own finances — has improved since 2024. But it's also higher than in 2023. Interest rates , however, have fallen from the 12-year high which carried from late 2023 through 2024. That has eased mortgage repayments, though disposable incomes haven't significantly increased. Like Australia, Europe also battled a period of high inflation. Inflation in the European Union peaked at 11.5 per cent in late 2022 and has since cooled. Falling inflation doesn't necessarily equate to lower prices, it just means prices are growing at a slower rate — unless inflation turns negative. Additionally, a recent analysis showed that a drop in jet fuel prices had lowered airfares. Global capacity — meaning seats on planes — was also up on last year and pre-pandemic levels, contributing to falling costs, according to corporate travel advisors FCM Consulting. "Our data shows that customers are reigniting their passion for European travel. We're seeing strong growth in early planning activity," said Yiken Yang, ANZ's managing director of everyday banking. "While we may not hit the $313 million peak of 2023, 2025 is shaping up as a vibrant resurgence for the travel sector." ANZ said non-European destinations in 2024 saw a 3 per cent increase in spend for the June-August period. Indonesia, New Zealand, Thailand and Japan were among the most popular destinations, ANZ said, which is consistent with what the Australian Bureau of Statistics says are countries favoured by holidaymakers. It also said Hong Kong and Sri Lanka were "emerging hotspots" and recording "significant" year-on-year growth in spend.
Zawya
04-07-2025
- Automotive
- Zawya
South Africa new vehicle sales surge
South Africa's new vehicle market maintained strong domestic demand in June 2025, closing the month with 47,294 units sold — an 18.7% increase from the 39,850 vehicles sold in June 2024. This growth reflects a broad-based recovery in both consumer and fleet purchases, according to the latest data from Naamsa. Passenger cars and commercial vehicles Passenger cars led the growth, with 32,570 new units sold in June — a 21.7% increase compared to June last year. Rental car sales accounted for 10.7% of this segment. Meanwhile, new light commercial vehicle sales, including bakkies and minibuses, grew by 14.9% to 12,129 units. Medium commercial truck sales rose 24.7% to 652 units, while heavy truck and bus sales saw a slight decline of 3.1%, with 1,943 units sold in June 2025. Year-to-date performance and imports For the first half of 2025, new vehicle sales are 13.6% higher than the same period in 2024, a performance largely driven by a rise in affordable imported models. Light vehicle imports increased by 25.6% among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and by 33.4% through independent importers. However, sales of locally manufactured vehicles declined by 14% year-on-year in the same period. Economic factors supporting demand Economic factors have supported this sustained growth. The South African Reserve Bank's 25 basis point interest rate cut in May 2025, low inflation remaining at 2.8% year-on-year, and improved access to credit have all contributed to consumer confidence and purchasing power. Business confidence and export concerns Despite the strong sales figures, the second quarter of 2025 revealed some caution among business leaders. The BER Business Confidence Index dropped to 40 in Q2 — down five points from the first quarter — reflecting concerns over political stability and global uncertainty. Even new vehicle dealers expressed unease despite positive sales trends, highlighting anxieties over longer-term risks. South African vehicle exports rose by 7.9% in June to 36,343 units compared to last year. However, ongoing trade negotiations, especially with the United States, remain a concern. The expiration of a 90-day trade reprieve in early July adds uncertainty over South Africa's access to this key market. Outlook and upcoming industry events Domestic demand is expected to remain strong for the rest of 2025, buoyed by interest rate relief and consumer preference for affordable, well-equipped vehicles. Recent improvements in consumer confidence among middle- and high-income groups support this outlook. As Naamsa marks its 90th anniversary, focus shifts to SA Auto Week 2025, scheduled for 1–3 October in the Eastern Cape. The event will bring together industry stakeholders to discuss investment, innovation, and the future of the South African automotive sector. All rights reserved. © 2022. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumers are feeling the pressure of a stagnant labor market
Consumers are feeling worse about the labor market outlook. In June's Consumer Confidence Survey, 29.2% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," down from 31.1% in May. Meanwhile, 18.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down slightly from 18.4% in month prior. These may seem like mere details, but this pushed the difference between the two — a closely watched sentiment reading called the labor market differential — to just 11.1 percentage points in June. That marked the lowest gap since March 2021, when the job market was recovering from the onset of the pandemic. Coupled with the surprise of the reading, expected to be strong, and it's something of note. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy The current situation is different than the so-called vibecession of 2022, where consumers felt worse about the state of the economy than actual data had shown. This time, consumers aren't getting it twisted: There are clear signs of slowing in the labor market all over the place right now. Weekly filings for unemployment are hovering at an eight-month high. In a sign workers are taking longer to find jobs, continuing unemployment claims are near their highest level since November 2021. The hiring rate is near its lowest level in more than a decade. And the outlook for certain cohorts of the labor market, like tech workers and new college graduates, is worse than before the pandemic. "The lost momentum in the labor market is not lost on consumers," Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients. The weakening labor market outlook helped contribute to the broad Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly declining in June after a large May bounce back. But perhaps even more importantly, it's also one reason why some are clamoring for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates soon. In a speech on June 23, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman noted that while the labor market is showing signs of strength, it "appears to be less dynamic." "With inflation on a sustained trajectory toward 2%, softness in aggregate demand, and signs of fragility in the labor market, I think that we should put more weight on downside risks to our employment mandate going forward," Bowman said. But with seven officials forecasting no interest rate cuts this year and eight penciling in two cuts, there's clear debate about whether rising inflation or a weakening labor market will drive the Fed's policy decisions over the next few months. While testifying in front of House lawmakers on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell stressed the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" before moving interest rates. Powell cited wider-ranging metrics like the national unemployment rate at 4.2% and an average of 124,000 nonfarm payroll gains through the first five months of the year to describe labor market conditions as "solid." And it's hard to argue that. But the argument for the Fed to cut sooner rather than later isn't about the broad-ranging metrics flashing warning signs. If that were the case it wouldn't be an argument. Just look back to the Fed's jumbo half percentage point interest rate cut last September that came after a string of weak labor data. Instead, the key concern some economists have about the economic outlook is being expressed by slowing on the margin and the fear those data points could be pointing to something worse. As Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday, "I follow what consumers tell me about the jobs market since they tend to lead the actual data." A compelling argument. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
