Latest news with #corporates
Reuters
21-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee likely to remain on backfoot as Asia FX dip, inflows dwindle
MUMBAI, July 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to retain its weakening bias on Monday, pressured by broad losses in regional peers, lacklustre foreign equity inflows and persistent dollar demand from local corporates. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated a flat-to-slightly-weaker open on Monday from 86.1475 in the previous session. The rupee has slipped near to 1% in the last two weeks and now hovers near its lowest level in almost a month. With the dollar/rupee pair "having clipped past 86, it looks like we're in a slow push higher," said a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank. "Right now, I don't see anything that could meaningfully turn the rupee around. The U.S.-India trade deal is one factor, though expectations of India making a relatively favourable one are fading.' Bankers said importers have been actively buying dollars for payments and short-term hedging, while foreign portfolio investor flows have remained muted. Offshore investors have pulled out more than $600 million from Indian equities so far this month, after pumping in nearly $4 billion during May and June. Market participants are keeping an eye on headlines around the U.S.-India trade deal, though most reckon it's unlikely to offer much support to the rupee. The pause in the dollar's downtrend is adding to the pressure on the rupee. The dollar index climbed 0.6% last week, extending its nearly 1% rally from the previous week. The dollar index was hovering near 98.50 on Monday, while Asian currencies were mostly weaker. Market focus remains on U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcements ahead of the August 1 deadline. Other key events this week include the European Central Bank's rate decision and China–European Union summit. "A wait-and-see approach remains the most probable course of action for the ECB next week. With the next potential tariff escalation not expected until August 1, there's little reason for a pre-emptive rate cut now," ING Bank said in a note. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.28; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.25 paisa ** Dollar index at 98.48 ** Brent crude futures at $69.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.42% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $333.4 million worth of Indian shares on July 17 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $38.7 million worth of Indian bonds on July 17
Bloomberg
18-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
KKR's McVey Says Markets Are Not Overvalued
CC-Transcript 00:00You say markets are reasonably valued and not overvalued. What's the difference between the two? So I think what we've seen over the years is that the quality of the S & P has actually improved. Right. You cut taxes, corporate taxes went from 31 to 21. So there's more free cash flow. The second is, is that the index has moved to be more towards services companies that have a higher return on capital and they have higher margins. So I think what we've seen this whole rally has been fought for. If you go back, we were up 55% in the last two and a half years and generally there's been a lot of noise out there and so people have not gotten fully invested. Our view is, is that the cycle will go on. This is like the nineties in the sixties where you have a productivity driven cycle. They last longer. 2022 was like 1994 where the bond market sold off. People moved to the sidelines. You really wanted to buy that in 1995 and it ran for another five years. We think that's very similar productivity driven cycles. They just act differently, right? Most people would say ISM has been below 50 for 26 out of 27 months and we haven't had a recession. There's something different going on and we've seen this one or two other decades. We own 200 companies around the world. We've got lots of different data points on how corporates are functioning. And when COVID hit, what they did is they really focus on automation and digitalisation. We talked about this a little bit before and that spending is yielding really good results. I don't actually think we've had the AI boom. Our flow through the data yet. And so that's, you know, I think you have to keep that in check. But I think that could be a little more addition to this productivity, productivity driven cycle that we've seen. It's largely in the US. I mean, I travel around the world, we've got 24 offices, but most CEOs today are need for competitive reasons to invest in technology, and they're squeezing more out of their out of their business in their cash flow. If you have this huge investment boom, you have a huge technology cycle and you have consumers that are hanging in there. We just saw that with retail sales. What gives you confidence that inflation's going to come down enough over the long term to lead to a global easing cycle? Yeah, so this is a great question. My actually view we've been talking about it. Take care of this higher resting heart rate for inflation this time. I actually the Fed has told us they're going to miss their mandate for seven years in a row. I bet they're very few of your your viewers actually were investing when they missed it seven years in a row. So I actually don't think in the US it's going to come down. What's different? The global easing cycle. We track the top 25 central banks around the world and what they're doing in 2022, 84% of them were raising rates. Today, only eight are said they're starting to ease. This cycle was actually led by the ECB. It's the first time we actually had the ECB out in front of the Fed. So I think inflation will stay stickier here than in other places of the world. But you have to look at it on a global basis. And one other point I would say is, is that when I started doing financial services and macro, the Fed's balance sheet was about 6% of GDP, then it went to 34% during COVID. And and then it's back down to 22 to 24%. That's still a huge number. That's that's a multiple of four versus nor normal. And that money is sitting on the sidelines. And it is particularly in the insurance arena, that money needs to get invested to make the the retirees actually achieve their returns. So the credit markets this cycle, you have less bank deleveraging, you've got higher quality, high yield, and then you've got this kind of tsunami of money that needs to get invested. One of the things that I love about our platform is we can look across relative value, across the capital structure and and what you see, it changes by day in terms of where there's value in credit. But overall, it's behaved incredibly much more benign this cycle than in the prior cycle. And the higher yields have led a lot of people to say this is the golden era for credit, particularly private credit, and moving away from private equity. Yeah, and we've seen some real concern about exits not coming to the fore and now universities selling some of their holdings for liquidity. Why do you push back against the idea that this really could lead to some sort of material weakening in the base of your original business? Yeah. So what I would say is one of the reasons in 20 1627, KKR probably over deployed a little bit. You have to have linear pacing when you do private equity. This in 21, 22 and 23, we did kind of a quarter or quarter or a quarter of the fund. That's the way you never have to make a big bet. What the industry did is it probably in general over invested in 21 and early 22, so they're gonna have to work that out. So I do think we've we've led to some differentiated outcomes, I think for the industry that what you're starting to see right now as monetizations pick up a little bit, the IPO markets opening over time and you've seen this real shift in our focus. This is a world where you're going to make more private equity, kind of make your own luck through operational improvement, corporate carve outs, public to privates. I think there'll be less that vintage. Where many in private equity were going private to private investments. I don't think those deals will perform as well. We certainly one of the reasons I have a job is we had made that mistake in 2006 and seven. And I think the industry will catch up to where we are after this latest later cycle. So I'm not as for overall, I knowledge there was over deployment for the industry in 21 and 22. I don't think we're suffering from that. And in general, what I would say is that over time when you if you're a long term investor, private equity has delivered about 4 to 500 basis points better than than most public equity markets. We just have about a minute. America versus Europe. Which do you prefer? And it's because you don't believe in American exceptionalism. I think actually, I think that what we're seeing in both regions is are they're going to perform, you guys has today has better companies. What the sentiment coming out of Davos was so negative on Europe. If they just did anything positive that you guys reported on this, anything went well, they delivered. Interestingly, Europe has actually been one of our best performing regions, a lot of really good entrepreneurs, a lot of a lot of stuff in infrastructure. Well done. Well, but keeping its but I think where you should watch I think defense stocks and do well there I think that financial services are going to do well and watch some of the smaller tech companies. But over time it's all about productivity. We've been saying that for years. Continue to focus on that. Happy to come back and beat the drum on that. So happy Friday to you all. For YouLive TV
Reuters
15-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Boxed-in Indian rupee revives appetite for selling short-term volatility
MUMBAI, July 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee's narrow range over the past two weeks, alongside established support and resistance levels, has sparked interest in selling short-term volatility, with large corporates and interbank players looking to monetise the relative calm. The rupee was quiet on Tuesday, inching up about 0.1% to 85.90 against the U.S. dollar, after trading in a narrow 12-paisa intraday range on Monday. Over the past two weeks, the rupee's weekly trading band has narrowed to 50–60 paisa, pushing 10-day realised volatility down to 4.3% from over 6.5% late last month. During this stretch, the currency has established a well-defined range, finding support near 86.00 and resistance around 85.20–85.30. This is prompting interest from corporates and interbank to sell short-dated volatility. Two bankers said a prominent Indian conglomerate has been inquiring about selling 1-week to 1-month volatility - a strategy that pays off if the rupee continues to trade within its current range. "Volatility selling is making a comeback in a small way, and it makes sense considering the recent price action. The rupee's range feels pretty well locked in for now, and its reaction to headlines has been fairly limited," said the head of FX and rates at a mid-sized private sector bank. He added the rupee was finding support around the 86 level without visible intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, suggesting the market positioning by itself is keeping the dollar/rupee boxed in. Bankers noted that despite last week's barrage of U.S. tariff headlines, the rupee held firm in the 85.90–86.00 zone, underscoring the strength of the current range. The absence of a U.S.-India trade deal hasn't rattled the currency either. "The U.S.–India trade deal news flow is one to watch,' said Apurva Swarup, vice president at Shinhan Bank India. "Depending on how it evolves, we could see the current range on the rupee widen slightly — although not drastically. The broader tone still feels anchored."
Bloomberg
15-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Chinese Investors' FX Pile Hits $1 Trillion Amid Low Local Rates
Chinese corporates and households boosted their foreign-currency deposits last month to the highest in three years, as they shunned the yuan on bets domestic interest rates will remain low. Total foreign-currency deposits onshore rose to $1.02 trillion in June, the highest since March 2022, according to data from the People's Bank of China released Monday. The net increase in the first half of the year was $165.5 billion, the biggest jump in data going back to 2005.
Bloomberg
07-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Restructuring Pressure Rises in Italy and Nordics, BCG Says
The number of firms under pressure to overhaul or restructure their businesses has risen sharply in Italy and the Nordics, putting both large companies and their supplier networks at risk, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group. A BCG assessment of 1,700 public European corporates published Tuesday found that 15% of Italian firms show early signs of weakening operational performance and stability, roughly twice as many as in 2024. The share of Nordic companies facing the same 'transformation pressure' increased four percentage points to 20%.
