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Asia stocks edge up, dollar droops as ceasefire buoys confidence
Asia stocks edge up, dollar droops as ceasefire buoys confidence

CNA

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • CNA

Asia stocks edge up, dollar droops as ceasefire buoys confidence

TOKYO :Asian stocks ticked higher and crude oil wallowed near multi-week lows on Wednesday, as investors took a ceasefire between Israel and Iran as a green light to head back into riskier assets and cast aside immediate worries about an energy shock. The dollar languished close to an almost four-year low versus the euro with two-year U.S. Treasury yields sagging to 1-1/2-month troughs as lower oil prices reduced the risk to bonds from an inflation spike. The shaky truce has so far held, although Israel says it will respond forcefully to Iranian missile strikes that came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an end to the hostilities. In addition, U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment, contradicting Trump's earlier comments that Iran's nuclear programme had been "obliterated". Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3 per cent and Australia's stock benchmark edged up 0.1 per cent, while Taiwan's index gained 0.9 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.8 per cent and mainland Chinese blue chips added 0.5 per cent. An MSCI index of global stocks held steady after pushing to a record high overnight. "Despite the cease fire between Israel and Iran appearing somewhat tenuous, the markets are shrugging it off," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at "Realistically, the markets don't care if a limited conflict comprised of mostly air strikes continues between the two countries," he said. "It's the prospect of a broader war, with deeper U.S. intervention and an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that really matters. And for now, the risks of that seem low." U.S. stock futures pointed slightly higher after the S&P 500 jumped more than 1 per cent overnight. Pan-European STOXX 50 futures advanced 0.2 per cent. Brent crude ticked up 83 cents to $67.97 per barrel, bouncing a bit following a plunge of as much as $14.58 over the previous two sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also added 83 cents to trade at $65.20 per barrel. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to the lowest since May 8 at 3.787 per cent. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was flat at 97.977. The euro added 0.1 per cent to $1.1612, edging back towards the overnight high of $1.1641, a level not seen since October 2021. Gold rose 0.3 per cent to about $3,333 per ounce. Aside from geopolitics, U.S. monetary policy continues to dominate investor concerns. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer, a period that will be key to the U.S. central bank considering possible interest rate cuts. Data showed that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June, signalling softening labour market conditions. Markets continue to price in a roughly 19 per cent chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce
Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce

Reuters

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce

TOKYO, June 25 (Reuters) - Asian stocks stabilised on Wednesday as crude oil hovered near multi-week lows as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran buoyed sentiment, even as hostilities threatened to flare up again. The dollar wallowed close to an almost four-year trough versus the euro with two-year U.S. Treasury yields sagging to 1 1/2-month lows as lower oil prices reduced the risk to bonds from an inflation shock. The shaky truce has so far held, although Israel says it will respond forcefully to Iranian missile strikes that came after U.S. President Donald Trump had announced an end to the hostilities. In addition, U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment, contradicting Trump's earlier comments that Iran's nuclear programme had been "obliterated". Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab and Australia's stock benchmark (.AXJO), opens new tab were flat, while Taiwan's index (.TWII), opens new tab gained 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI), opens new tab rose 0.6% and mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab eased 0.1%. U.S. stock futures were little changed. An MSCI index of global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab held steady after climbing to a record high overnight. Brent crude ticked up 81 cents to $67.95 per barrel, bouncing a bit following a plunge of as much as $14.58 over the previous two sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 70 cents to $65.07 per barrel. "Despite the cease fire between Israel and Iran appearing somewhat tenuous, the markets are shrugging it off," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at "Realistically, the markets don't care if a limited conflict comprised of mostly air strikes continues between the two countries," he said. "It's the prospect of a broader war, with deeper US intervention and an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that really matters. And for now, the risks of that seem low." The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to the lowest since May 8 at 3.787%. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major counterparts, slipped 0.1% to 97.854. The dollar slipped 0.1% to 144.70 yen . The euro added 0.1% to $1.1625, edging back towards the overnight high of $1.1641, a level not seen since October 2021. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer, a period that will be key to the U.S. central bank considering possible interest rate cuts. Powell spoke at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee. Data showed that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June, signalling softening labour market conditions. Markets continue to price in a roughly 18% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Oil Traders Piled Into Leveraged Bearish Oil ETF Before Rout
Oil Traders Piled Into Leveraged Bearish Oil ETF Before Rout

Bloomberg

time24-06-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Oil Traders Piled Into Leveraged Bearish Oil ETF Before Rout

An exchange-traded product that profits when oil prices fall is on track for its biggest monthly inflow since 2023 as investors correctly wagered that crude's conflict-driven spike would prove short-lived. The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF pulled in cash in eight of the last nine sessions for which data are available, putting it on track for a monthly inflow of $121 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund seeks to return twice the inverse of the daily performance of its underlying index.

Rupee set to rally as crude dives on Israel-Iran de-escalation
Rupee set to rally as crude dives on Israel-Iran de-escalation

Reuters

time24-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

Rupee set to rally as crude dives on Israel-Iran de-escalation

MUMBAI, June 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to climb at open on Tuesday as the plunge in crude oil on fading Middle East geopolitical risks improves the outlook for the South Asian nation's trade balance and assets. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 86.10 to 86.15 range, versus 86.75 in the previous session. Brent prices fell 2% in Asia after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire. Brent had already slid 7% on Monday when Iran made a token retaliation against a U.S. base. "With Trump having lent a hand in brokering a peaceful resolution, the prospect of a prolonged conflict with U.S. involvement has been re-priced," clearing the way to add risk, Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said. U.S. equities rose Monday and futures indicated a further rally. The dollar index softened and Asian equities and currencies advanced. "It is expected that the big opening dip (on USD/INR) will run into buy orders. I do not think 86 will be taken out, though I reckon that positions are on the lighter side and interbank will be on the hunt to put in shorts," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. Brent crude is now trading below $70 a barrel — near levels seen before Israel's first strike on Iran. The rupee was at 85.60 prior to that escalation. There is "definitely" more room for the rupee to rally, a treasury official at a bank said. It's just that large drops on USD/INR tend to "struggle to hold on". Meanwhile, Federal Reserve vice-chair Michelle Bowman said the first interest rate cut this year could come as soon as July, further undermining the dollar and boosting risk. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.25-86.30; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.25 paise ** Dollar index down at 98.17 ** Brent crude futures down 2.1% at $69.88 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.35% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,093.6 mln worth of Indian shares on June 22 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $18.8 mln worth of Indian bonds on June 22

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