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Reuters
04-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee ends week little changed, looming tariff deadline in focus
MUMBAI, July 04 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee witnessed muted price action on Friday to end the week little changed as traders awaited developments in U.S.-India trade talks, with a positive outcome potentially helping the local currency break past a sticky resistance level. The rupee closed at 85.3925, down about 0.1% each on the week and day. The currency had risen to a one-month peak of 85.25 in the previous session but pared gains on Friday after traders scaled back wagers on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following a stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market report. On the day, routine dollar demand from importers weighed on the rupee with market participants also avoiding aggressive bullish wagers on the local currency to limit carrying risk over the weekend, a trader at a foreign bank said. While the rupee has persistently failed to rise and hold above a technical resistance level around 85.35-85.40 over recent sessions, a favourable trade deal with the U.S. may help the currency clear the hurdle, the trader added. U.S. President Donald Trump has said that Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on imports to the United States. "If Trump's comments prove accurate, then investors will again begin to downgrade growth expectations and upgrade inflation expectations, which will only encourage further dollar selling," MUFG said in a note, referring to the letters. Earlier in the week, Trump announced a deal with Vietnam, and the White House teased a forthcoming agreement with India. Meanwhile, talks with Japan - the U.S.' closest ally in Asia - have appeared to hit road blocks. Amid the ongoing uncertainty, analysts have pointed out that India's climbing foreign exchange reserves and the central bank's shrinking forward book are cementing the rupee's defences.
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Inflows boost rupee to one-month high; trade deal optimism aids sentiment
By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee touched its strongest level in a month on Thursday, lifted by dollar sales from foreign banks and cutting of bearish bets on the local currency, while optimism surrounding a U.S.-India trade deal also aided sentiment. The rupee rose to a peak of 85.20, its best level since late May, before ending the session at 85.31, up 0.4% on the day. Dollar sales from foreign banks in the latter half of Thursday's session boosted the rupee, with the rise above 85.40 also triggering stop-losses on some wagers against the currency, traders said. Asian currencies mostly rose, while the dollar index remained steady ahead of a key U.S. labour market report. Most stock indices in Asia also gained on Thursday, after U.S.-Vietnam trade discussions raised the possibility of breakthroughs for other countries in the region ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. India's benchmark equity indexes though closed marginally lower. U.S. and India trade negotiators were pushing on Wednesday to try to land a tariff-reducing deal ahead of President Donald Trump's July 9 negotiating deadline, per sources familiar with the talks. "Given the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal and the looming July 9 deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause, markets are also alert to similar trade announcements with India and the European Union," DBS said in a Thursday note. Traders reckon a trade deal with India could push the rupee above 85, but further gains would depend on foreign inflows and if the central bank steps in shore up its FX reserves via dollar purchases. On the day, investors will also keep an eye on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for cues on the future path of the Federal Reserve policy rates. Economists polled by Reuters expect that the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
03-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Inflows boost rupee to one-month high; trade deal optimism aids sentiment
MUMBAI, July 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee touched its strongest level in a month on Thursday, lifted by dollar sales from foreign banks and cutting of bearish bets on the local currency, while optimism surrounding a U.S.-India trade deal also aided sentiment. The rupee rose to a peak of 85.20, its best level since late May, before ending the session at 85.31, up 0.4% on the day. Dollar sales from foreign banks in the latter half of Thursday's session boosted the rupee, with the rise above 85.40 also triggering stop-losses on some wagers against the currency, traders said. Asian currencies mostly rose, while the dollar index remained steady ahead of a key U.S. labour market report. Most stock indices in Asia also gained on Thursday, after U.S.-Vietnam trade discussions raised the possibility of breakthroughs for other countries in the region ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. India's benchmark equity indexes though closed marginally lower. U.S. and India trade negotiators were pushing on Wednesday to try to land a tariff-reducing deal ahead of President Donald Trump's July 9 negotiating deadline, per sources familiar with the talks. "Given the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal and the looming July 9 deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause, markets are also alert to similar trade announcements with India and the European Union," DBS said in a Thursday note. Traders reckon a trade deal with India could push the rupee above 85, but further gains would depend on foreign inflows and if the central bank steps in shore up its FX reserves via dollar purchases. On the day, investors will also keep an eye on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for cues on the future path of the Federal Reserve policy rates. Economists polled by Reuters expect that the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.
Reuters
30-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee ends month and quarter a tad lower, trails most Asian peers
MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped on Monday to end the month and quarter slightly lower, trailing most Asian peers amid muted portfolio inflows and weighed down by the country's external investment deficit. The currency closed at 85.7550 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.3% on the day and posted modest losses of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively for the month and quarter, underperforming most Asian peers amid a broad dollar downtrend. While the Indian unit is little changed on the year so far, Asian peers such as the Taiwan dollar and Korean won have risen about nearly 13% and 8% year-to-date, respectively, while the offshore Chinese yuan, a closely tracked peer of the rupee, is up over 2%. India's external investment deficit is among the key reasons cited by analysts behind the rupee's underperformance. The external investment positions of Asian countries have come into focus as investors ramp up hedge against persistent weakness in the dollar, thereby boosting currencies of countries with sizeable investment surpluses, like Korea and Taiwan. The dollar index is down over 10% on the year so far, bogged down by worries over U.S. trade and fiscal policies, worries over the future independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of upcoming cuts to benchmark interest rates. Muted portfolio flows have also been a sore point for the rupee with foreign investors net pulling about $0.5 billion from local stocks and bonds over the April-June quarter. Despite the relative underperformance, analysts expect a broadly weaker dollar to support the rupee. "We see scope for USD/INR to consolidate in an 84-86 range with a downside bias," DBS said in a note, adding that it would consider lowering USD/INR's forecast if the US Federal Reserve pivots towards a rate cut later this year and sets the stage for more USD weakness. On the day, traders said that dollar bids from foreign bank and state-run banks weighed on the rupee even as most of its Asian peers logged gains.
Bloomberg
30-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
SNB Stayed Out of FX Market as Franc Slumped in First Quarter
The Swiss National Bank continued to refrain from steering the franc at the beginning of the year, largely staying out of currency markets for a fifth consecutive quarter while the currency lost value against the euro. The SNB bought foreign exchange worth just 49 million francs ($61 million) from January to March, according to data on Monday. That's in line with previous quarters, which saw Switzerland's central bank purchase comparably small amounts through all of 2024.
