Latest news with #decisionmaking
Forbes
10 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
How AI Empowers Leaders To Make Smarter, Faster Decisions
Igor Fedulov is CEO of Intersog. In 2025, vision and charisma alone no longer define a leader. In an era where markets can shift between morning coffee and the evening commute, success depends on speed, precision and adaptability. The famous lesson often attributed to Darwin has never felt truer: It isn't the strongest or most intelligent species that survives, but the most adaptable to change. Artificial intelligence (AI) won't replace your entrepreneurial spirit or intuition, but it will help empower it. By racing through oceans of data and delivering insights the instant you need them, AI will help modern leaders steer through complexity with clarity and confidence. The Decision Making Revolution Great leaders have always relied on a blend of experience and intuition, but today's world moves too fast for gut calls alone. Data is exploding, and opportunities vanish in days, not weeks. AI flips this challenge into an advantage, turning raw information into instant clarity. Picture a retail CEO gearing up for Black Friday. Instead of sifting through spreadsheets or waiting for a team to crunch the numbers, with AI, the leader can analyze historical sales data, competitor pricing and real-time market trends in minutes. The result is a pricing strategy that's sharp, evidence-based and ready to outpace the competition. This speed translates directly into competitive advantage. Use AI to optimize supply chains, spot customer trends early or catch risks before they spiral. It will free you to focus on the big picture: inspiring your team and driving growth. Your Blueprint For AI Success To lead with AI, you need a game plan. This three-step approach will help you get your business ready: • Audit your data. Great AI starts with great data. Check if your systems are integrated, clean and accessible. If your data's a mess, your insights will be too. • Prioritize impact. Start with AI tools that deliver fast wins. Predictive analytics for demand forecasting or real-time competitor tracking can transform your strategy. For instance, AI can cut inventory costs or reveal pricing gaps in hours. Use these clues as your ticket to leading the market. Test with small pilots to build momentum. • Build the right team. Invest in platforms that scale and people who can use them. Train your crew or hire experts to keep your AI edge sharp. From Instinct To Insight Leadership has always been an art, fueled by intuition. But in a data-driven world, instinct needs a partner. AI bridges that gap, turning that little voice inside into confident calls. Imagine you're eyeing a new market. Old-school research might give you a vague sense of the landscape. AI goes deeper, scanning social media buzz, economic signals and local trends to deliver a crystal-clear picture. You still make the call, but now it's backed by insights that give you an edge. This blend of human spark and AI precision is what will set great leaders apart. Empowering Teams When you use AI to make bold, fast decisions, you set a tone of innovation that inspires everyone. A marketing leader using AI to nail campaign predictions can empower their team to execute with confidence. An operations head streamlining workflows with AI frees up space for creative breakthroughs. The end result is a culture where everyone moves faster and thinks bigger. This dynamic is key. As the collective intelligence of your team grows, you can spend less time micromanaging and more time working on the bigger picture. Keeping AI Honest AI is an incredible ally, but it's not perfect. Here's how you can help ensure your AI tools stay reliable: • Review your data. Regularly check your datasets for accuracy and fairness. Clean, high-quality data is the foundation of trustworthy AI. • Demand transparency. Choose AI systems that explain their logic. This lets you catch and fix any quirks. • Stay in charge. AI can provide insights, but you need to make the final call to ensure that those decisions reflect your company's ethics and goals. For example, a fintech lending company using AI for credit scoring might have a team double-check results to ensure fairness. With these steps, AI becomes a tool you can trust to amplify your leadership, not derail it. Outsmarting The Competition AI can also help you redefine how you compete. You can use it for real-time competitor analysis, predictive market modeling and scenario planning to gain a strategic advantage. Simulate market reactions to a product launch, test pricing and messaging. AI also uncovers hidden edges. By scanning social media, news and earnings reports, it can spot shifts in competitor tactics or customer vibes. If you act on these insights, you can set the pace rather than just keep up with the competition. Measuring The Wins To know your AI investments are paying off, track a few key metrics: • Accuracy: Check how often AI-guided decisions hit the mark, like setting the perfect price point or avoiding supply chain hiccups. • Speed: Measure how much faster you're making decisions, like cutting the time to analyze a new market from weeks to days. • Impact: Look at the big wins AI helps deliver, such as higher revenue, lower costs or happier customers. Take a logistics firm using AI for smarter routes. By measuring fuel savings and delivery times, they can see real ROI. Find your own metrics to see if AI is providing the expected ROI. The Heart Of Leadership Of course, AI isn't a substitute for great leadership. The best outcomes happen when leaders pair AI's power with their own judgment, empathy and vision. AI can crunch numbers and spot trends, but it can't inspire a team through a tough quarter or navigate the nuances of a stakeholder negotiation. As AI is evolving, so too must our approach to leadership. If we see AI more as a partner, not a threat, we can use it to sharpen our instincts and amplify our impact. Let's rethink leadership together and build a legacy that lasts. Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs and technology executives. Do I qualify?
Times of Oman
11 hours ago
- Politics
- Times of Oman
Secretary General of Defence ministry reviews proceedings of strategic exercise 'Decision Making 12'
Muscat: Dr. Mohammed Nasser Al Zaabi, Secretary General of the Ministry of Defence, on Wednesday observed the proceedings of the annual strategic exercise 'Decision Making 12' at the National Defence College of the Academy for Strategic and Defence Studies. The exercise is being conducted by participants of the twelfth course at the National Defence College. Upon his arrival at the college premises, the Secretary General was received by Brigadier Ali Abdullah Al Sheidi, Commandant of the National Defense College, in the presence of Major General Hamid Ahmed Sakroon, Chairman of the Academy for Strategic and Defense Studies. The Secretary General of the Ministry of Defence was briefed on the exercise scenarios and various operational simulations. Subsequently, the Secretary General and accompanying officials visited the exercise cells to observe operational mechanisms and review participants' outputs, which demonstrated the strategic and academic knowledge gained throughout the course curriculum.
Harvard Business Review
a day ago
- Business
- Harvard Business Review
Research: Executives Who Used Gen AI Made Worse Predictions
Many organizations are prioritizing the integration of AI tools into the workplace. And for good reason—early studies have shown that they can boost employee performance on simple or rote tasks, help leaders become better communicators, and aid organizations in expanding their customer bases. But how does AI fare as a partner in higher-stakes decision-making? To test this, we ran a simple experiment. We asked more than 300 managers and executives to make stock predictions after reviewing past trends. Half were then given the chance to confer with their peers, while the other half could consult with ChatGPT. Participants could then revise their predictions. The results were striking. We found that ChatGPT made executives significantly more optimistic in their forecasts while peer discussions tended to encourage caution. Additionally, we found that the executives armed with ChatGPT made worse predictions, based on actual stock figures, than they had before they consulted the tool. In this article we share what we did, what we found, what explains it, and why it matters for any leader integrating AI into their decision-making process. The Experiment Our study took place during a series of executive-education sessions on AI between June 2024 and March 2025. Participants were managers and executives from various companies taking part in a class exercise. We began by showing everyone the recent stock price chart of Nvidia (NVDA), the leading chipmaker whose fortunes have skyrocketed thanks to its role in powering AI technologies. Nvidia's share price had been on a notable rise, which made it a fitting, real-world case to test forecasting ability. (And it certainly had the executives' attention). First, each participant was asked to make an individual forecast: What did they expect Nvidia's stock price to be one month into the future? They submitted this initial estimate privately. Next, we randomly split the participants into two groups for a brief consultation period: Peer discussion (control group): These executives discussed their forecasts in small groups for a few minutes. They did not use any AI tools, just human conversation, sharing thoughts or information they had. This mimics a traditional approach to decision-making: getting input from colleagues. ChatGPT consultation (treatment group): These executives could ask ChatGPT anything they liked about Nvidia's stock (for example, to analyze recent trends or give a one-month forecast) but they were told not to talk to any peers. This scenario represents an AI-assisted decision process, where an executive might consult an AI advisor instead of colleagues. After this, everyone made a revised forecast for Nvidia's price one month ahead, and we collected those responses. The Results AI led to more optimistic forecasts. The groups started with comparable baseline expectations: Before any discussion or AI consultation, the two sets of executives had statistically indistinguishable forecasts for Nvidia. After the consultation period, however, we found that executives who used ChatGPT became more optimistic in their forecasts. On average, the ChatGPT group raised their one-month price estimates by about $5.11. Peer discussion made forecasts more conservative. In contrast to the AI group, the peer-discussion group lowered their price estimates, on average, by about $2.20. Additionally, this group was more likely than the ChatGPT group to stick with their original estimate. If they did make a change, they were more likely to decrease their initial forecast. These patterns held true even when we controlled for the most extreme (high or low) forecasts in our dataset. AI consultation made predictions worse. After we conducted our study, we waited a month, and then compared the predictions the executives had made against actual Nvidia data. We found that both groups were too optimistic, on average. However, we found that those who used ChatGPT made even worse predictions after their consultation. Those who discussed with their peers made significantly better predictions than they'd made before their consultation. AI caused overconfidence. Among all of our participants, about a third offered pin-point predictions in their initial estimates (meaning they offered figures with one or more decimals) which previous research has established as an indicator of overconfidence. What surprised us was that after consulting with peers or ChatGPT, participants' overconfidence in the accuracy of their forecasts systematically changed. Conversing with ChatGPT significantly increased the participants' tendency to offer pin-point predictions, while participants in the peer discussion group became significantly less likely to use pinpoints in their revised estimate. In other words, their overconfidence decreased. Why AI Created Overconfidence and Optimism What might explain these very different outcomes? Why would consulting an AI tool lead to inflated estimates and overconfidence, while peer discussions provoked greater humility and conservatism? We have isolated five reasons: 1. Extrapolation and 'trend riding' ChatGPT may have encouraged extrapolation bias. The AI's knowledge is based on historical data, so it might have simply extended Nvidia's recent upward trend into the future. Indeed, Nvidia's stock had been climbing steeply in the months leading up to our sessions. Lacking up-to-the-minute context or any sense of an upcoming turning point, ChatGPT's analysis likely assumed 'what has been going up will keep going up.' The AI's guidance, based purely on past data patterns, may have skewed toward optimism by default. 2. Authority bias and detail overload Many executives in the ChatGPT condition reported being impressed by the detail and confident tone of the AI's answer. In post-experiment discussions, some participants noted that ChatGPT provided a wealth of data and reasoning that was so thorough and self-assured, it made their own initial estimates seem inadequate by comparison. This is a form of AI authority bias: Because the AI spoke in a confident, analytical manner, users tended to give its suggestions a lot of weight, sometimes more than they gave their own judgment. Essentially, the medium's authority (an advanced AI, sounding like an expert report) boosted the credibility of an optimistic forecast. 3. Emotion (or lack thereof) Humans have emotions and instincts that can act as a check on extreme forecasts. An executive looking at a meteoric stock chart might feel a tinge of wariness and an inner voice saying 'If it's at a peak, it could crash.' In our sessions, we suspect that emotional caution played a role in the peer discussions. People might voice doubts or fears ('This stock feels bubbly; maybe we should rein it in a bit'). ChatGPT, on the other hand, has no such emotion or intuition. It doesn't feel fear of heights the way a person might when seeing a price chart soaring. The AI offers an analysis uncolored by anxiety, which can be useful, but also means it might not second guess an optimistic trend. Users who rely on the AI's output alone don't get the benefit of that cautious gut-check. In our experiment, the absence of 'fear of being wrong' on the AI side may have allowed bolder forecasts to go untampered. 4. Peer calibration and social dynamics The act of discussing with peers introduced a different set of biases and behaviors, generally pushing toward caution and consensus. In a group discussion, individuals hear diverse viewpoints and often discover that others' expectations differ from their own. In our peer groups, this dynamic often led to moderating extreme views and finding a middle ground. Additionally, in professional settings, no one wants to be the person with an absurdly bullish forecast. There is a bit of 'don't be the sucker' mentality, because executives know that unbridled optimism can look naïve. In our view, this may have created a spiral of skepticism in the group setting: each person, consciously or not, trying not to appear too rosy-eyed, resulted in collectively lower forecasts. This is almost the opposite of classic 'groupthink'—instead of cheerleading each other into euphoria, these executives reined each other in, perhaps to avoid standing out. The end result was a more conservative consensus. 5. Illusion of knowledge Research has shown that when people have access to vast bodies of information, like the internet, or tools for information processing, like computers, they are more likely to fall for the illusion of knowing it all. A significantly large number of participants show the effect of this illusion when they tapped into ChatGPT, one of the most intelligent technologies with access to vast resources. How to Use AI Wisely in Executive Decisions Our findings carry some important lessons for leaders and organizations as they integrate AI tools into decision-making: 1. Be aware of AI's biases and the illusion of knowledge. Consulting ChatGPT (or similar gen AI models) can subtly but significantly tilt your expectations and create excessive confidence in them. If you're using AI to inform forecasts or strategic decisions, remember that it might impress you with detail while lacking the cautionary perspective that humans naturally bring. Hence, when making predictions, specify the data you want the system to analyze, have the system provide you with a statistical confidence interval, and most importantly (to compensate any bias), ask the system to explain why or how the prediction could be wrong. 2. Don't ditch human discussion, instead leverage it. The contrast between our two groups underscores the value of peer discussion as a counterbalance. Yes, AI can provide lightning-fast analysis and information, but there is still wisdom in the room. Peers can contribute fresh data, context, and a reality check on ideas that sound too good to be true, or just too precise in their forecast. In practice, the best approach may be to combine AI input with human dialogue. For instance, an executive could get a quick take from ChatGPT and then convene a team meeting to debate it. Our research suggests that this combination would harness AI's strengths and human judgment, helping avoid the blind spots of either alone. As leaders, encouraging a culture where new tech is used alongside healthy skepticism and discussion will likely lead to more balanced decisions. 3. Critical thinking is key, no matter the source. Whether advice comes from an AI or a colleague, executives must apply their own critical thinking. Ask questions about the basis of a forecast. In the case of ChatGPT, one might probe: What data is this forecast drawing on? Could there be recent factors it is missing? With peers, one might ask: Are we being too conservative because we're all uncertain? Especially with AI, which can sound authoritative, it is crucial not to accept recommendations at face value. Treat AI as a starting point for inquiry, not the final word. This also applies to our very own study. This study was conducted in a controlled executive‐education setting with a limited sample of managers and may not fully capture the complexity or emotional stakes of real‐world trading environments. We also focused exclusively on a single stock (Nvidia) and a one-month forecasting horizon, so results may differ for other securities or longer‐term predictions. Finally, the ChatGPT model we used lacked access to up-to-the-minute market data and alternative AI tools or more current model versions might yield different effects. Understanding limitations or possible confounders (both in our study) and with AI can help you apply a critical lens to outputs. 4. Train and set guidelines for AI use in teams. If your organization is rolling out AI advisors or assistants, make it known that AI might encourage overconfidence. Like Ulysses needed wax and string to withstand the lure of the Sirens, your organization needs guidelines on how to handle AI. For example, before getting an AI-generated forecast, require a round of peer discussion or a review of worst-case scenarios before consulting with AI. By institutionalizing a mix of AI and human input, you guard against lopsided influences. . . . AI is changing how decisions are made, but human judgment remains crucial. Our experiment provides a data-backed glimpse into this evolving dynamic. Even seasoned executives can be swayed by a convincing AI argument, and even enthusiastic groups can become cautious with a bit of discussion. Neither approach is 'better' in all cases. Sometimes optimism is warranted, and sometimes caution is. The takeaway for leaders is to be mindful of where the advice is coming from. If it is from AI, inject some human common sense; if it is from humans, you might even use AI to ensure you did not miss an outside perspective.
Times of Oman
2 days ago
- Politics
- Times of Oman
Chairman of Academy for Strategic, Defence Studies inspects 'Decision-Making 12' exercise
Muscat: Maj. Gen Hamed Ahmed Sakroon, Chairman of the Academy for Strategic and Defence Studies today inspected the progress and activities of the annual strategic exercise 'Decision-Making 12'. The Chairman and several senior officers were briefed about the exercise. The participants gave an explanatory presentation about the exercise and how it interacts with international issues and various national scenarios. Meanwhile, several retired commanders from the Sultan's Armed Forces and other military and security units also viewed the strategic exercise 'Decision-Making 12'. Upon their arrival at the National Defence College (NDC), they were received by Rear Admiral Ali Abdullah Al Shidi, Commandant of the NDC, at the presence of Maj. Gen Hamed Ahmed Sakroon, Chairman of the Academy for Strategic and Defence Studies.
Fast Company
2 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
The most undervalued asset for a leader? It's these 2 hours
By the time most leaders sit down at their desks, they've already spent a chunk of their best energy. They've triaged emails, squeezed in early meetings, and handled 'just one quick thing' that ballooned into an hour. It's barely 10 a.m. and their attention is already diluted, their decision-making fatigued. In my work as an executive leadership coach, I see every day what the studies have been showing us for years. Our brain's capacity to make good decisions depletes as the day sheer volume of decisions we have to make each day is leaving us diminished. And our days get hijacked by email—with us losing almost a full day's worth every week. The compounding effect of this is that leaders are less sharp, more reactive, and prone to default decisions rather than breakthroughs. So what if, instead of reacting, we reserved that early window for something more valuable? The first two hours of your workday aren't just another block on the calendar. They're your cognitive prime. The time when your brain is sharpest and your energy most aligned with creative, focused work. They're also the time most leaders give away too easily. Reclaiming it is about making a deliberate leadership move that pays off in clarity, influence, and impact. The cost of default mornings Most of us don't design our mornings: we inherit them. Calendars fill with recurring meetings, habitual inbox checks, and requests from others. We hit the ground running, but often in the wrong direction. This default mode comes at a price. While research shows we have peak cognitive capacity in the morning, that prime time is too often squandered on low-impact tasks. It's like hiring a Michelin-star chef to butter toast. In the end, leaders end up firefighting all day, making decisions from a place of fatigue, and pushing their most strategic thinking to a time when their brain is already checked out. The first two hours as a leadership lever Reclaiming your first two hours isn't about working harder or even smarter, it's about working sharper. Working smarter is about efficiency. It's finding faster ways to do familiar things, streamlining systems, and ticking more off your list in less time. That's helpful, but it still treats all hours of the day as equal. Working sharper is different. It respects the natural rhythm of your body and brain. It's not just about what you're doing, but when you're doing it. Your cognitive capacity peaks in the first few hours after waking. This is when your brain is most alert, creative, and capable of solving complex problems. Sharper work means aligning your most important thinking with your highest mental performance. Leaders who intentionally front-load their day with deep, high-impact work don't just get more done; they make better decisions, model smarter working habits, and lead with more clarity. They create time to think, not just to respond—and that's the game changer. When your first hours are spent solving complex problems, crafting strategy, or preparing for high-stakes conversations, you're not just ticking off tasks, but setting the tone for how your team operates and how your business grows. Small changes, outsized impact When leaders begin to guard their early hours, the ripple effect is striking. Teams notice, the culture shifts, and people get braver about protecting their own energy. I've worked with senior leaders who transformed their team's operating rhythm just by removing early meetings and declaring the first two hours as thinking time. It signalled a new standard: that considered work matters more than constant busyness. That energy is a finite resource worth protecting. And yes, it requires a shift. You may need to renegotiate habits with your team, push back on automatic scheduling tools, or educate others about your new working rhythm. But leadership is, in part, about setting boundaries that enable your best work and empower others to do the same. Rethinking what belongs in the morning To make the most of your best energy, you need to protect it. Here's how: Block, don't hope. Set a recurring two-hour block in the morning for proactive work. Don't leave it to chance. Start with friction. Tackle the task you're most likely to procrastinate; your brain is most equipped to handle it now. Email can wait. Unless you're in customer service, few emails need a response at 8 a.m. Turn off notifications and don't open your inbox until after your deep work is done. Delay the meetings. Push back recurring stand-ups or updates to later in the day where possible. Mornings should be reserved for creation, not coordination. Even reclaiming just one morning a week can create meaningful shifts in how you lead and perform. What your calendar says about your leadership There's a simple way to tell what you value most as a leader. Look at your calendar. If the first two hours of each day are filled with admin and reactivity, it's worth asking: what are you giving away? And what would change if you claimed that space instead? Reclaiming this time is a move toward leading with more foresight and less fatigue. It's a signal to your team that thoughtfulness trumps frenzy. And it starts tomorrow morning. Just two hours for your clearest thinking, and the work that truly matters.
