Latest news with #dependence
Indian Express
4 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Why US crackdown on transshipment could have consequences for India
A key element in the flurry of reciprocal tariff letters the United States has sent to countries deeply integrated with its economy, be it Canada and South Korea — or those with close economic ties to China, such as Thailand and Malaysia in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region — is the threat of steeper tariffs on transhipped goods. Washington DC views this as a backdoor route for Chinese products to enter its market. Transhipment in trade parlance refers to the practice of importing products from one country and exporting them to another, usually without significant processing or value addition. Indian experts suggest that, in India's case, the US could invoke stringent 'rules of origin' provisions under the trade agreement to discourage the entry of Chinese goods into the US via India. But India's reliance on Chinese products across industry could pose a significant problem while dealing with the US. The Trump administration's crackdown on rerouted goods, which previously allowed countries like Vietnam to serve as conduits for Chinese exports into the US, could extend to India as US Vice President JD Vance during his visit to India in April, issued a veiled warning to New Delhi, stating that the US seeks partners committed to working with America to build things —'not those who merely allow themselves to become conduits for transhipping goods from elsewhere'. This assumes significance for India as its dependence on China has increased sharply, particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic. To be sure, Chinese exports have surged globally — including to the US — following the pandemic, as production in China remained relatively stable while the rest of the world faced disruption. Official trade data indicates a simultaneous rise in imports from China and exports to America. Data from the Commerce and Industry Ministry showed that India's exports to the US in April rose 27.31 per cent to $8.41 billion, up from $6.61 billion in April last year. At the same time, imports from China increased by a comparable margin — up 27.03 per cent to $9.90 billion, compared to $7.79 billion a year earlier. A similar pattern emerged in March, as concerns grew over the possibility of steeper Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods relative to Indian ones. India's exports to the US jumped 35 per cent to $10.14 billion, while imports from China rose 25.02 per cent to $9.67 billion. During FY25 as a whole, India's exports to the US rose 11.59 per cent to $86.51 billion, while imports from China increased 11.52 per cent to over $113 billion. However, in June the imports from China surged 2.48 per cent but exports to the US jumped 23.53 per cent. This comes amid an increased number of anti-dumping duties that India has begun imposing on high value items such as steel and other industrial goods from China. Decoupling from China has been a slow and painful process even for the US. For India — which aims to expand its manufacturing base to create jobs for its large population — the challenge is even greater. Despite opting out of the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, India's imports from China have continued to surge, surpassing $113 billion in FY25. While poor logistics and a lack of industrial expertise are often cited as reasons why India's manufacturing sector has struggled, the imbalance in the Chinese economy also played a role. The lower cost of Chinese goods has disrupted several Indian industries. In the renewable energy sector, where domestic solar cell manufacturers have struggled to compete with Chinese imports. Chen Gang, Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore, notes in his report China's Consumption Dilemma in the Age of Trump that 'China's economy has been notoriously imbalanced, characterised by low domestic consumption and an overreliance on export and investment.' China's 'state capitalism has an innate tendency to focus on the 'supply side' instead of the 'demand side',' Gang wrote in his report for the Hinrich Foundation. He adds that this approach has led to 'enormous industrial capacity subsidised by the state but detached from real market demand.' Policies such as 'dual circulation', aimed at promoting self-sufficiency, have inadvertently 'exacerbated industrial overcapacity rather than alleviated it'. That surplus capacity, in turn, has driven Chinese producers to aggressively seek external markets—potentially distorting global trade and fuelling competitive pressures abroad. 'Since the end of its draconian pandemic restrictions, China's economy has struggled to rebound amid weak demand, excess savings, debt crises, and falling property prices and investment,' the report said. 'Economists are urging Beijing to shift focus to boosting consumer demand and away from a debt-fuelled, investment-led model that funnels resources into export-oriented manufacturing at the expense of households.' Ravi Dutta Mishra is a Principal Correspondent with The Indian Express, covering policy issues related to trade, commerce, and banking. He has over five years of experience and has previously worked with Mint, CNBC-TV18, and other news outlets. ... Read More
Japan Forward
4 days ago
- Business
- Japan Forward
China's Rare Earth Gamble: A Double-Edged Sword in the Trade War
Since the latest round of the United States-China trade war began, Beijing has wasted no time in playing what it sees as its trump card: restrictions on rare earth exports. Initially, both the US and Europe appeared unprepared to respond effectively, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) did gain some short-term leverage at the negotiating table. But how did the CCP secure its monopoly over rare earth minerals? What cost did it impose on the Chinese people? And how can the West break free from this dependence? Although Washington announced a framework trade deal under which Beijing would speed up rare earth exports to the US, the Financial Times reported that China's export controls now extend beyond officially listed rare earths and magnets. Any product flagged with sensitive keywords is being held at customs for extra inspections and third-party chemical analysis. On July 1, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to accelerate rare earth magnet exports, as shipments had yet to rebound to their early April levels. It is clear that the CCP has no intention of abandoning the rare earth weapon. It intends to wield it to the fullest. Beijing's ability to weaponize rare earths rests on decades of strategy. China is now the world's top holder of rare earth reserves. It also ranks first in production, exports, and domestic consumption. Here is China's share across each stage of the global rare earth supply chain. China's share of the global rare earths market at each stage. (©Inconvenient Truths) While rare earths were originally an American domain, things changed drastically. In 1949, the US discovered the Mountain Pass mine, an open-pit rare earth site. Between 1965 and 1985, the US led in rare earth refining and supplied most of the global demand. But aggressive price undercutting by China gradually rendered Mountain Pass uncompetitive. It eventually closed in 2002, citing high costs and environmental issues. Nevertheless, the US retains vast reserves — 13 million tons, or 13% of the global total, according to the US Geological Survey. In China, large-scale rare earth reserves in Inner Mongolia's Bayan Obo region were confirmed in the mid-20th century. Yet it wasn't until the 1980s that the Chinese government began exploiting their potential. In 1992, Deng Xiaoping famously said, "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths." This declaration unleashed a gold rush of rare earth extraction, with central and local governments, private players, and even criminal gangs diving into the sector. From 1985 to 1998, Beijing further boosted the industry with 13 years of export tax rebates. This policy led to three major consequences: The boom severely damaged ecosystems. In 2012, China issued its only white paper on rare earths, admitting that outdated mining and refining methods destroyed vegetation, caused soil erosion and acidification, and polluted surface and groundwater. One ton of ion-adsorption rare earths generated 2,000 tons of waste. Even modern in-situ leaching methods continue to release ammonia and heavy metals. In some areas, excessive mining has caused landslides, river blockages, and large-scale disasters. In the early 1980s, China produced just 20 tons of rare earths annually. By the 1990s, it had surpassed the US, and post-2000, output topped 100,000 tons—90% of global supply. But global demand couldn't keep pace. Chinese companies undercut each other, selling rare earths like pork. Prices by the early 2000s were just one-fourth of 1990 levels, despite Beijing imposing export quotas from 1998 to 2014. Chaos reigned. From 2006 to 2008, foreign customs data showed Chinese rare earth imports exceeded China's official export figures by 35%–59%. In 2011, the gap reached 120%. Still, Beijing sought to turn rare earths into a strategic asset. In 2010, during the Diaoyu//Senkaku Islands dispute, China imposed a rare earth embargo on Japan — but failed to achieve its goals. Beijing concluded that fragmented industry control weakened its strategy. It responded by accelerating industry consolidation and nationalization. In October 2016, a development plan mandated the integration of China's entire rare earth industry into six state-led conglomerates: Chinalco, Northern Rare Earth, Xiamen Tungsten, China Minmetals, Guangdong Rare Earth, and Southern Rare Earth. This integration was completed by December 2016. On December 23, 2021, Minmetals, Chinalco, and Southern Rare Earth merged to form China Rare Earth Group. On January 1, 2024, it absorbed Guangdong Rare Earth, reducing the six giants to three. By then, Beijing had achieved full control over the industry. New legal frameworks followed. On September 15, 2024, China imposed export controls on antimony. On October 1, the Rare Earth Management Regulations came into effect. By December 1, so did the Dual-Use Item Export Control Regulations . By April 2025, with Trump launching another tariff offensive, the CCP was fully prepared. It immediately restricted exports of seven mid-to-heavy rare earth elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. The restrictions took effect the same day, leaving no time for a US or global reaction. In April 2025, rare earth magnet exports from China dropped to 3,000 tons — down 43% year-on-year, and nearly halved from March's 5,800 tons. In May, exports plunged to 1,238 tons, a 52.9% monthly drop and a 74% yearly decline — the lowest since February 2020. From January to May, exports totaled just 19,132 tons, down 14.5% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021. The result was a global "rare earth shortage." The CCP had, in effect, declared its dominance over the global rare earth supply chain. Despite its grip on rare earths, the costs for China have been enormous: The 2012 white paper remains largely accurate today. Land is scarred, water is polluted, and recovery efforts are slow and expensive. For every 100 yuan ($14 USD) earned from mining, the cost of environmental restoration might exceed 500 or even 1,000 yuan ($70-$140 USD). A small elite profits while the public bears the burden of a shattered homeland. Although Beijing proclaims market reforms, in rare earths, it has reverted to full state control. Since 2006, total production and separation quotas are set jointly by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources. In February 2025, new regulations placed 92% of supply under direct control. Only designated state-run groups may mine or refine rare earths. Others are banned. The monopoly is absolute. Rare earths are not truly rare; many nations have deposits. But the CCP seized control through unsustainable price wars. After the 2010 Japan embargo, the US and others began diversifying. Japan's Hitachi Metals (now Proterial) opened a US factory in 2011 but closed it in 2020 due to cost pressures and US buyer reluctance. The CCP closely watches such moves and floods markets with low-cost supplies to undermine rivals. Now, amid intensifying US-China rivalry, the West is fighting back. The US is now leading an effort to create a China-free rare earth supply chain. Despite China's dominance, prices remain low and profits thin. From 2023 to now, export volume has slightly increased. But total revenues have fallen — showing persistent price decline. China's rare earth export quantity and value, 2020–2024. (©Inconvenient Truths) Beijing's approach — sacrificing the environment and future generations for control — may prove unsustainable. The CCP's rare earth strategy, aimed at global domination, has instead turned into a national liability. Meanwhile, the West is pushing forward. The Donald Trump administration is relaxing regulations and boosting investment in domestic supply chains. Experts see this as a turning point. Even if the CCP were to lift restrictions and flood the market again, the West is unlikely to retreat. Ken Mushinski, CEO of Rare Element Resources, confirmed that America's effort to build an independent supply chain is "100% moving forward." His firm, backed by the US Department of Energy, is building a demonstration plant and expects full commercialization in two to three years. Since January, Trump's second term has seen 11 executive orders supporting mining and refining of critical minerals. In June, the Department of Energy released new NEPA guidelines to simplify permitting. In April, the Department of the Interior included rare earth projects in its fast-track infrastructure list. Still, with China's entrenched dominance, full US self-sufficiency may take 10–20 years. Until then, avoiding Beijing's chokehold remains a constant challenge. Author: Jennifer Zeng Find Jennifer Zeng's articles on JAPAN Forward . Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) and on her blog page, Jennifer's World .
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
They earn less than Rs 50,000, but this is how 93% salaried Indians are spending more
A recent study reveals a significant rise in credit card usage among lower-income Indians, with 93% of salaried individuals earning under ₹50,000 and 85% of self-employed individuals now relying on them. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are also gaining traction, particularly among self-employed individuals. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads BNPL Also Gaining Popularity Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Fintechs Leading the Charge Credit cards are no longer just a luxury item for the wealthy. A new study shows that nearly 93% of salaried Indians earning under ₹50,000 per month now rely on credit cards to manage their expenses, reflecting a growing dependence on short-term credit among lower-income to a report by a data science and AI firm, this trend is not limited to salaried workers. Around 85% of self-employed individuals surveyed also use credit cards to meet their daily financial study, which observed the financial habits of over 20,000 salaried and self-employed individuals across India over a 12-month period, highlights a shift in how people access credit in today's digital not just credit cards. The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) model is quickly catching on too. The study found that 15% of salaried individuals and 18% of self-employed people are using BNPL services.'In India's evolving credit landscape, products once seen as aspirational, credit cards and BNPL, are now essentials for everyone, from salaried professionals to gig workers,' said Amit Das, Founder and CEO of as quoted by report also points to the rising influence of fintech companies in India's credit market. In FY23, fintech firms disbursed over ₹92,000 crore in personal loans, making up 76% of all new loan originations by study notes that digital-first credit solutions like credit cards and BNPL are becoming especially important for low and middle-income earners who often struggle with cash flow or are not well-served by traditional from PTI
Time of India
13-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Make (more) in India: India switches to factory settings for niche electronics
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Kolkata: After iPhones, smart televisions and microwave ovens, India is now scaling up manufacturing of more niche electronic products such as robotic vacuum cleaners, coffee makers, built-in refrigerators and air fryers, which, till recently, were fully development, according to industry executives, is driven by the government's expanding list of electronic products whose factories need certification under the quality control orders (QCO) of the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) that are meant to control imports from China and other places, as well as promote local production. Most of these specialised products have come under QCO in the past eight to nine months. Till recently, most consumer goods firms argued that the market size for these categories was so small that local production did not make sense.'BIS norms have been a big trigger, with more and more brands — including premium ones — exploring local production for small appliances despite small market size,' said Atul Lall, managing director of Dixon Technologies . 'It's a nice business opportunity.' Earlier this week, Dixon signed an agreement with Eureka Forbes to manufacture robotic vacuum cleaners, a category with a market size of just about Rs 700 is the largest home-grown electronics contract manufacturer. Europe's Liebherr has set up a plant for built-in customised refrigerators in Aurangabad, with production commencing in April, despite domestic annual sales of only 14,000-15,000 Agarwal, India managing director (sales) at Liebherr Appliances, said that implementation of the BIS norms for refrigerators from this year served as a wake-up call to set up a factory locally, further aided by the premiumisation wave. 'We were importing from Germany but getting the factory certified is a tedious process. We also believe the market will grow to 1 lakh units in five a local plant made a business case and will reduce import lead time,' he said. Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals ' annual report said it will prioritise local sourcing this fiscal. Havells India said in its annual report it will further support localisation of products to reduce import dependence, from about 8% of its total sourcing in the previous financial year, having scaled it down from around 15% of total sourcing in of QCOs has opened up more attractive categories, according to Ajay Singhania, MD of contract manufacturer Epack Durable, while the business for more mature categories such as mixer grinders has been either flat or growing at a nominal rate of 3-4% annually. The opportunity includes 72 categories, such as air fryers, electric kettles and hair dryers, most of which were earlier fully imported, he said. 'We are taking a lead in localising these categories and meeting the requirements of most of the marquee customers,' he told analysts last firms imported these products in bulk in the past few months before the QCO came into executives said that while the market size may be small for standalone categories, it's altogether a business opportunity of more than Rs 12,000-13,000 crore. To put it in perspective, the market size of air-conditioners alone is more than Rs 40,000 crore and that of smartphones is more than Rs 1.5 lakh leading contract manufacturer, PG Electroplast , began small appliance production seven to eight years ago, but had to discontinue it as the opportunity was very small at the time, said its managing director (operations) Vikas Gupta. 'But with the BIS norms, we are now relooking at it as a lot of brands are approaching us,' he government has, over the past few years, expanded the compulsory BIS QCO certification to products such ACs, washing machines, refrigerators, ceiling fans, plugs, switches and cables, and very few overseas factories have received the BIS certification.
Time of India
11-07-2025
- Time of India
Radhika Yadav murder mystery takes new turn: After reels, her music video creates new suspense; Watch viral video here
Radhika Yadav, a promising tennis player, was fatally shot by her father, Deepak Yadav, at their Gurugram residence due to a long-standing dispute over the tennis academy she managed. Deepak was reportedly unhappy with her running the academy and felt humiliated by his dependence on her income, leading to the tragic incident. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Watch her music video here: Why Radhika Yadav was shot by her father? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Radhika Yadav: Who was the rising tennis talent? While financial independence and disagreements over managing the academy had long been sources of friction, police sources now suggest that Radhika's appearance in a music video may have further strained relations at video in question is Karwaan, a song by independent artist INAAM, produced by Zeeshan Ahmad and released under the LLF Records label about a year ago. Radhika appears alongside INAAM in multiple scenes. According to sources close to the investigation cited by NDTV , Deepak had objected to her role in the video and had reportedly asked her to remove it from her social media per sources quoted by PTI, Deepak Yadav admitted that he fired at Radhika because he faced frequent taunts about relying on her earnings. However, police said the main issue between the father and daughter was the tennis academy managed by Radhika. 'Radhika used to run a tennis academy, and her father was not happy with it,' PTI quoted Gurugram police spokesperson Sandeep Singh as saying.'He wanted her to shut down the academy, but she refused. He finally shot her dead over the same dispute,' HT quoted assistant commissioner of police Yashwant Yadav the primary dispute appears to be over the tennis academy, Gurugram police said they are also examining other angles. These include the father's possible objection to Radhika's relationship or to videos she posted on FIR has been registered at the Sector 56 police station. Police said they will continue to question family members and examine Radhika's phone and social media activity as part of the Yadav was a rising star in Indian tennis. Born on March 23, 2000, she had reached a career-high ranking of 113 in the ITF women's doubles standings as of November 4, 2024, and held the fifth spot in Haryana's women's doubles alumna of Scottish High International School, Radhika completed her Class 12 in commerce in 2018. She picked up a tennis racket during her early school days and had recently launched an academy to train young she was recovering from a shoulder injury and undergoing physiotherapy, Radhika remained actively involved in the sport. Police officials described her as a lively and cheerful person, often seen in social media reels celebrating her wins with her father.
