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10 hours ago
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Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.54%, reaching a 3-1/4 year low. The dollar retreated following a Wall Street Journal report that said President Trump is considering accelerating the announcement of the next Fed Chair. The dollar remained lower on Thursday's US economic news of a downward revision in Q1 GDP and a wider-than-expected May trade deficit report, which was a negative factor for Q2 GDP. The dollar received underlying support from stronger-than-expected initial unemployment claims, core capital goods orders, and pending home sales reports. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin were supportive of the dollar when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Dollar Falls as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -7,000 to 236,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 243,000. However, weekly continuing claims rose +37,000 to a 3-1/2 year high of 1.974 million, above expectations of 1.950 million, signaling more people are staying out of work for longer. US Q1 GDP was revised lower to -0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at -0.2% as Q1 personal consumption was revised downward to +0.5% from +1.2%. The Q1 core PCE price index was revised higher to +3.5% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of unchanged at +3.4%. US May capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and the largest increase in 4 months. The US May trade deficit of -$96.6 billion was wider than expectations of -$86.1 billion, a negative factor for Q2 GDP. US May pending home sales rose +1.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Richmond Fed President Barkin said he expects tariffs will put upward pressure on prices, and with so much still uncertain, he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. The dollar retreated Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may announce Fed Chair Powell's replacement as soon as September, an unusually early appointment. That reinforced expectations of a more dovish-leaning Fed, after Trump criticized Powell for holding interest rates steady. Because Powell's term expires in May 2026, announcing a new Fed chair far earlier than the traditional three-to-four-month transition period could allow the chair-in-waiting to influence expectations about the likely path for interest rates. An overly dovish Fed would likely produce higher inflation, which depreciates the value of the dollar. The markets are discounting a 25% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.43% and posted a 3-3/4 year high. The euro moved higher after the dollar fell on the report that President Trump may name Fed Chair Powell's successor as soon as September. The euro was undercut after the German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined. The German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.3 to -20.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.2. Swaps are pricing in a 9% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell by -0.63%. The yen climbed to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar as the dollar tumbled on the Wall Street Journal report that President Trump would name a successor to Fed Chair Powell sooner than expected. Thursday's slide in the 10-year T-note yield to a 7-week low was also bearish for the dollar and bullish for the yen. August gold (GCQ25) on Thursday rose by +4.90 (+0.15%), and July silver (SIN25) rose by +0.481 (+1.33%). Precious metals closed higher on Thursday on the report that President Trump might announce his new Fed pick early, which could result in inflation and increased demand for precious metals as a store of value. The slump in the dollar index to a new 3-1/4 year low was also a bullish factor for precious metals. Silver prices had carryover support from Thursday's rally in copper prices to a 2-3/4 month high. Precious metals prices were undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin weighed on gold prices when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. In addition, reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold. Thursday's downward revision to US Q1 GDP was negative for industrial metals demand and was bearish for silver prices. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Undercut by Reduced Middle East Tensions
The dollar index (DXY00) Wednesday fell by -0.20%. The dollar on Wednesday gave up an early advance and fell to a 1-week low as the ceasefire continues to hold between Israel and Iran, reducing safe-haven demand for the dollar. Also, Wednesday's weaker-than-expected US new home sales report was negative for the dollar. The dollar initially moved higher Wednesday on hawkish Fed comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid, who said the Fed should wait to see how tariffs and other policies impact the economy before adjusting interest rates. Mr. Schmid's comments echoed hawkish remarks this week from other Fed officials, including Fed Chair Powell, New York Fed President Williams, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who stated that they are in no hurry to cut interest rates. What Will It Take to Push Gold Prices to New Record Highs? Dollar Undercut by Reduced Middle East Tensions Dollar Moves Higher With T-note Yields Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! US May new home sales fell -13.7% m/m to a 7-month low of 623,000, weaker than expectations of -6.7% m/m to 693,000. Fed Chair Powell stated that policymakers don't need to rush and lower interest rates, as recent economic data is backward-looking and many economists expect 'a meaningful increase in inflation' over the course of this year due to tariffs. Late Tuesday evening, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said the current 'wait and see' monetary policy posture is appropriate as the Fed should wait to see how tariffs and other policies impact the economy before adjusting interest rates. The markets are discounting the chances at 25% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Wednesday rose by +0.47%. The euro recovered from early losses on Wednesday and rallied to a 3-1/2 year high. The dollar gave up an early advance on Wednesday and turned lower, boosting the euro. The euro also garnered support from Wednesday's economic news that showedEurozone May new car registrations rose by the most in five months, a sign of strength in consumer spending. Eurozone May new car registrations rose +1.6% y/y to 927,000, the biggest increase in five months. Swaps are discounting the chances at 9% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Wednesday rose by +0.15. The yen was under pressure Wednesday as the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding, which has reduced safe-haven demand for the yen. Also, the summary of the June 16-17 BOJ meeting was dovish and negative for the yen as policymakers said it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged. The yen recovered most of its losses Wednesday after T-note yields turned lower. Also, supporting the yen was Wednesday's news that Japan's May PPI services prices rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for BOJ policy. In addition, hawkish comments from BOJ Board member Tamura were bullish for the yen when he said the BOJ may still raise interest rates despite economic uncertainty. Japan May PPI services prices rose +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.1% y/y. The Japan Apr leading index CI was revised upward by +0.8 to 104.2 from the previously reported 103.4. BOJ Board member Tamura said it may be necessary for the BOJ to raise interest rates if inflation risks rise, despite economic uncertainty. The summary of opinions from the June 16-17 BOJ policy meeting stated that board members said uncertainty is extremely high and that it's appropriate to maintain monetary policy for the time being. August gold (GCQ25) Wednesday closed up +9.20 (+0.28%), and July silver (SIN25) is up +0.379 (+1.06%). Precious metals moved higher on Wednesday after the dollar gave up an early advance and turned lower. Tariff concerns are also boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals with only two weeks to go until the 90-day pause on President Trump's reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9. Fund buying of gold and silver continues to support prices as gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 1-3/4 year high Tuesday, and silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-3/4 year high. Gains in precious metals were limited on Wednesday as the Israel-Iran ceasefire curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, hawkish central bank comments were negative for precious metals. Fed Chair Powell stated that policymakers don't need to rush and lower interest rates, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid said he favored the Fed holding interest rates steady. In addition, BOJ Board member Tamura said the BOJ may need to raise interest rates despite economic uncertainty. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Falls as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.49% at a 3-1/4 year low. The dollar retreated today following a Wall Street Journal report that said President Trump is considering accelerating when he will announce the next Fed Chair. The dollar remained lower after today's US economic news of a downward revision in Q1 GDP and a wider-than-expected May trade deficit report, which was a bearish factor for Q2 GDP. The dollar received underlying support from stronger-than-expected initial unemployment claims, core capital goods orders, and pending home sales reports. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin were supportive of the dollar when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. What Will It Take to Push Gold Prices to New Record Highs? Dollar Undercut by Reduced Middle East Tensions Dollar Falls as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -7,000 to 236,000, showing a stringer labor market than expectations of 243,000. However, weekly continuing claims rose +37,000 to a 3-1/2 year high of 1.974 million, above expectations of 1.950 million, signaling more people are staying out of work for longer. US Q1 GDP was revised lower to -0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at -0.2% as Q1 personal consumption was revised downward to +0.5% from +1.2%. The Q1 core PCE price index was revised higher to +3.5% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at +3.4%. US May capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and the largest increase in 4 months. The US May trade deficit of -$96.6 billion was wider than expectations of -$86.1 billion, a negative factor for Q2 GDP. US May pending home sales rose +1.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Richmond Fed President Barkin said he expects tariffs will put upward pressure on prices, and with so much still uncertain, he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. The dollar retreated today after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may announce Fed Chair Powell's replacement as soon as September, an unusually early appointment. That reinforced expectations of a more dovish leaning Fed, after Trump criticized Powell for holding interest rates steady. Because Powell's term expires in May 2026, announcing a new Fed chair far earlier than the traditional three-to-four-month transition period could allow the chair-in-waiting to influence expectations about the likely path for interest rates. An overly dovish Fed would likely produce higher inflation, which depreciates the value of the dollar. The markets are discounting the chances at 25% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up by +0.50% at a 3-3/4 year high. The euro rallied today after the dollar sank on reports that President Trump may name Fed Chair Powell's successor as soon as September, making Fed Chair Powell a lame duck before his term ends in May 2026, and fueling speculation that early Fed rate cuts are more likely. Gains in the euro are limited after the German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined. The German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.3 to -20.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.2. Swaps are discounting the chances at 9% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.69%. The yen climbed toa 1-1/2 week high against the dollar today as the dollar tumbled after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump would name a successor to Fed Chair Powell sooner than expected, which fueled speculation the next Fed chair will be more dovish than Mr. Powell, a negative factor for the dollar. Today's slide in the 10-year T-note yield to a 7-week low is also bullish for the yen. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -15.70 (-0.47%), and July silver (SIN25) is up +0.289 (+0.80%). Precious metals today are mixed. Today's strength in stocks has reduced demand for safe havens in precious metals. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin weighed on gold prices when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. In addition, today's report that showed weekly jobless claims fell more than expected is a hawkish factor for Fed policy and bearish for precious metals. Finally, reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East are curbing safe-haven demand for precious metals as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold. Today's downward revision to US Q1 GDP was negative for industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. Today's slump in the dollar index to 3-1/4 year low is a bullish factor for metals. Also, today's report from the Wall Street Journal that said President Trump is considering announcing Fed Chair Powell's replacement a soon as September has reinforced expectations of a more dovish leaning Fed, which boosts demand for precious metals as a store of value. Silver prices also have carryover support from today's rally in copper prices to a 2-3/4 month high. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar and Gold Prices Fall on Easing Geopolitical Risks
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.55% and posted a 1-week low. The dollar retreated Tuesday after President Trump announced a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which curbed safe-haven demand for the dollar. Also, Tuesday's sharp rally in stocks reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar weakened further on Tuesday after an unexpected decline in the Conference Board's June US consumer confidence index. Losses in the dollar were contained Tuesday by hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, New York Fed President Williams, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said they are in no hurry to cut interest rates. Palladium Rallies- How High Can the Precious Metal Rise? Gold and the Dollar Tumble on Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire Dollar and Gold Prices Fall on Easing Geopolitical Risks Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. The US Apr S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +3.42% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.90% y/y and the smallest increase in 1-3/4 years. The Conference Board's June US consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -5.4 to 93.0, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.8. The US June Richmond Fed manufacturing conditions survey unexpectedly rose +2 to -7, stronger than expectations of a decline to -10. Comments from Fed Chair Powell signalled he is no rush to cut interest rates when he said, "The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level, and for the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance." Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the Fed doesn't need to cut interest rates, with companies planning to raise prices later this year in response to higher import taxes and with the job market still stable. New York Fed President Williams said it's "entirely appropriate" for the Fed to hold interest rates steady while they analyze the full impact of policy changes on the job market and inflation. The markets are discounting the chances at 19% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Tuesday rose by +0.39% and posted a 3-1/2 year high. Tuesday's dollar weakness benefited the euro. The euro was also boosted by news that theGerman Jun IFO business climate index rose to a 13-month high. In addition, Tuesday's increase in the 10-year German bund yield to a 1-week high strengthened the euro's interest rate differentials. Dovish comments on Tuesday from ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau limited gains in the euro, as he stated that the ECB can still cut interest rates within the next six months. The German Jun IFO business climate index rose +0.9 to a 13-month high of 88.4, stronger than expectations of 88.0. ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said. "If we look at the present assessment of markets so far, inflation expectations remain moderate. If that was confirmed, it could possibly lead in the next six months to further accommodation." Swaps are discounting the chances at 8% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Tuesday fell sharply by -1.01%. The yen rallied Tuesday on optimism that falling energy costs will boost the Japanese economy after crude prices dropped more than -6% to a 1-1/2 week low. Gains in the yen accelerated Tuesday after the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-1/2 month low. August gold (GCQ25) Tuesday closed down -61.10 (-1.80%), and July silver (SIN25) closed down -0.455 (-1.26%). Precious metals on Tuesday fell sharply, with gold posting a 2-week low. An easing of geopolitical risks has sparked a rally in global equity markets and prompted long liquidation pressures in precious metals on Tuesday, on the announcement of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict. Precious metals added to their losses Tuesday on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, New York Fed President Williams, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who signaled the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Precious metals recovered from their worst levels Tuesday after the dollar slid to a 1-week low. Also, dovish comments on Tuesday from ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau were supportive of precious metals when he said the ECB could still cut interest rates further within the next six months. Fund buying of gold continues to support prices as gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 1-3/4 year high Monday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on 登入存取你的投資組合
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Pressured by Dovish Fed Comments
The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.33%. The dollar on Monday dropped from a 3-week high and turned lower on dovish Fed comments. Fed Governor Bowman and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said they favored a Fed rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting. Also, Monday's rebound in stocks curbed liquidity demand for the dollar. In addition, Monday's fall in the 10-year T-note yield to a 6-week low weighed on the dollar's interest rate differentials. The dollar initially rallied to a 3-week high Monday after the weekend attack by the US on Iran's nuclear facilities boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar. The dollar also found support from the stronger-than-expected US PMI and existing home sales reports. Palantir, Nuclear Stocks, and the Put/Call Ratio: Key Stocks, Sectors, and Indicators on Watch After U.S. Strikes on Iran Dollar Pressured by Dovish Fed Comments Dollar Firms on Escalation of Middle East Tensions Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! The June S&P US manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.0, stronger than expectations of a decline to 51.0. US May existing home sales unexpectedly rose +0.8% m/m to 4.03 million versus expectations of a -1/3% m/m decline to 3.95 million. Fed Governor Bowman said, 'Should inflation pressures remain constrained, I would support lowering the fed funds policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market.' Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed could resume interest rate cuts if the inflation hit from tariffs remains subdued. The markets are discounting the chances at 23% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Monday rose by +0.42%. The euro recovered from early losses on Monday and rallied after the dollar gave up an early advance and sank on dovish Fed comments. The euro on Monday initially moved lower due to weaker-than-expected Eurozone June PMI reports. Also, dovish comments on Monday from ECB Governing Council member Centeno undercut the euro when he said the Eurozone economy needs more ECB stimulus. The June S&P Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.4, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.7. Also, the June S&P Eurozone composite PMI was unchanged at 50.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 50.4. ECB Governing Council member Centeno said, 'The supply and demand conditions are still too weak in the Eurozone to allow a return to the 2% inflation target without further stimulus.' Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Monday rose by +0.07%. The yen tumbled to a 1-1/4-month low against the dollar today on concern that rising energy costs will derail Japan's economy after the escalation of Middle East hostilities pushed crude prices up to a 5-1/4 month high. The yen also fell after Japanese officials denied a Financial Times report that said the US asked Japan to raise its defense spending to 3.5% of annual GDP. However, the yen recovered most of its losses on Monday after T-note yields plunged following dovish comments from the Fed. The yen also garnered support from Monday's Japanese economic news, which showed that the June Jibun Bank Japanese manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in 13 months. In addition, the Japan Finance Ministry's cut in its long-term bond sales was supportive for the yen. The June Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI rose +1.0 to 50.4, the highest level in 13 months. The Japanese Finance Ministry said it will reduce the volume of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds sold in auctions by a combined 3.2 trillion yen ($21.7 billion) starting in July through the end of March 2026. August gold (GCQ25) Monday closed up +9.30 (+0.27%), and July silver (SIN25) closed up +0.170 (+0.47%). Precious metals moved higher Monday after the US launched attacks over the weekend on Iran's nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in the Middle East and prompting some safe-haven demand for precious metals. Lower global bond yields on Monday were also supportive of precious metals. In addition, dovish central bank comments boosted demand for precious metals as a store of value. Fed Governor Bowman and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said they support a Fed rate cut at next month's policy meeting, and ECB Governing Council member Centeno said the Eurozone economy needs more ECB stimulus. Fund buying of gold and silver continues to support prices. Gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 1-3/4 year high last Friday, and silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-3/4 year high. Monday's rally in stocks limited the upside in precious metals. Also, Iran's meager retaliation attempt against the US for attacking its nuclear facilities reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals after missile attacks by Iran on US bases in Qatar were intercepted with no damage done to US assets. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
