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New York Times
3 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
How to avoid bad fantasy football draft picks and dooming your roster from the start
I'll bet you didn't know that Indiana Jones holds the key to fantasy football glory. Or, at least he's part of an instructive metaphor on how to avoid dooming your roster with poor picks. Remember that sequence at the end of 'Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade' where he's sent through a series of lethal challenges to retrieve the Holy Grail? After dodging spinning blades of death, he must navigate a room with a false floor so he doesn't plummet to his demise, then, faced with a plethora of similar objects, he must 'choose wisely' to secure the Grail. Make the wrong selection? Shrivel into skeleton dust. (Which is essentially the same effect as managers spending an early pick on Kyle Pitts … ) Advertisement What this cinematic climax illustrates is that the path to claiming your prize (the Grail/your championship) is not as simple as following a marked path and picking the shiniest object you see. So we're here to tell you that blindly selecting your roster based on the overall player rankings of your fantasy draft platform, or even a preferred pundit, is a great way to ensure your team plummets into a bottomless abyss, or what I like to call The Draft Chasms of Doom™. Player rankings seem a clean enough way of organizing your potential selections, but they obscure a crucial element that ultimately decides your fantasy fate, namely points. While players may rank, say, No. 4 and 5 in the quarterback rankings, No. 5 may project to produce significantly fewer points than No. 4. So, while you may think you're getting the next best player at a position, you could be walking off a projected points cliff because you're bypassing better alternatives that provide a bigger advantage over their positional peers. To state the obvious: In fantasy football, you are trying to score more points than your opponent each week. But the way those weekly scores accumulate is what really matters. You should really think of each position as a mini-battle with your weekly opponent. Each of those mini-battles aggregates to the final score. So the real path to weekly success and fantasy football domination is maximizing the point differential at the positions that you win, while minimizing the differential at positions you lose. Unless you're drafting against a group with the collective IQ of Derek Zoolander, you're not landing the top projected players at every position. But by paying attention to big drops in projected points, you can create the biggest possible scoring advantage at each position in your starting lineup. Advertisement Using Jake Ciely's 2025 player projections, we'll show you where to find the biggest drops in projected points at each of the four main positions. Meanwhile, Jake explains what his projections are seeing and provides advice on how to avoid those Draft Chasms of Doom. (Should you spring for one of the top-four QBs or wait late?) But if you want to get into the weeds on some fantasy football philosophy and why these draft drop zones are so critically important, read on. While rankings provide a draft map of sorts, what's really important is the gap in production between players at a position. That gap is ultimately what defines league-winning players, particularly when measured against their average draft position. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen finished No. 1 and 2 among quarterback scoring in 2024, but Jackson put up 434.4 points to Allen's 385. Applying an advanced mathematical concept I like to call 'subtraction,' Jackson provided more than a 50-point edge over the next-best QB last season. Given every team must start a quarterback, in a 12-team league, that margin grows to a whopping 146 between Jackson's season and the No. 12 scoring QB (Justin Herbert). However, that assumes each of the 12 teams featured one of the top 12 QBs and one or more teams didn't have two QBs in that group, with one on the bench. Thus that 146-point gap between Jackson and Herbert (or 8.6 points over 17 weeks) represents the minimum advantage created by having Jackson facing the team with the worst QB in their fantasy league. In the words of Larry David, that's pret-ty, pret-ty, pretty good. Even going against the No. 2 QB in Allen, Jackson's team would have about a 3-point weekly edge. The more advantages like that you can create at each position, the more likely you are to win each week. Advertisement Of course, selecting all the top performers at each position is impossible in almost any draft format, especially in a snake draft. So to maximize your advantages, you have to identify potential values (by weighing projected points against average draft positions and positional scarcity) while not getting forced to fill a position with a sub-optimal starter. The latter is what we're focused on with our Draft Chasms of Doom. For example, using Jake's player projections (and assuming they're prophesied to become reality at the end of the 2025 season), whoever drafts Brock Bowers (223.2 projected points) will have a 4-plus point-per-game advantage at tight end over half of the teams in a 12-team league. But you're going to need to take Bowers in the early second round based on FantasyPros' consensus ADP (for half-point PPR, which is what Jake's projections use). There are running backs like Devon Achane (ADP 15), Jonathan Taylor (20) and Josh Jacobs (23) being drafted around that slot. Meanwhile, George Kittle is getting drafted in Round 4 and offers a 3.1 ppg edge on half the TEs in that league. Which is the better pick: Snag Bowers early or wait for Kittle and instead take one of Ciely's Top 10 RBs in Round 2? Glad you asked. The key terms here are 'scarcity' and 'marginal advantage.' The first refers to how many players at a position group are truly valuable relative to players at a replacement level. (Consult Jake's VORP rankings in the customizable cheat sheet and you'll see how each position group stacks up in terms of scarcity.) The second refers to the edge you can create for yourself by picking one player over another, basically the Bowers/Kittle example above. Marginal advantage is also important because it illustrates why players who put up more overall points across a season might not be the most helpful players for your team. These terms are important because of a key restriction placed on your team each week: Your starting lineup. While QBs may produce the most overall fantasy points of all players in a given season – Jackson outscored the top non-QB, Saquon Barkley, by 95.6 points in half PPR formats in 2024 – running backs and wide receivers are far more valuable. Why? You need more of them in your starting lineup. (Assuming you play in a one-QB league, obviously.) Remember that example above about the drop from Lamar Jackson to Herbert and the 8.6 point-per-game advantage it created for Jackson's teams last season? Do the same for Barkley – No. 1 RB with 338.8 points in 2024 – and the 'best worst' starting RB option last season – No. 24 Rachaad White, 174.1 points – and you get a gap of 164.7, or about 9.7 points per game on average. Even my English degree allows me to see that 9.7 is more than 8.6, which makes Barkley the more advantageous pick at his position. This also holds for the No. 1 vs. No. 24 wide receivers (Ja'Marr Chase and Zay Flowers), which featured a 167-point gap (9.8 ppg). Translation: Running backs and wide receivers have higher positional value than quarterbacks, particularly when you consider you really should draw the 'best worst' option for RB and WR around 30 instead of 24 to account for starters at the Flex position, which is standard in most leagues. Plot out the position projections on a graph and you can see clearly how the value decreases as you go deeper down the rankings. That 24-to-30 drop is particularly precipitous at running back, where last year Barkley's edge was almost 11.5 ppg over No. 30 RB Kareem Hunt. Scan Ciely's rankings this season and you'll note that you get to 'replacement level' running backs a lot faster (No. 44) than you do at wide receiver (No. 57). Based on that, you can provide a slight edge for running back value over wide receivers, but both are clearly greater than quarterbacks this season. Meanwhile, as alluded to earlier with Bowers and Kittle, tight ends provide a poignant example of how the Draft Chasms of Doom can impact your roster. Advertisement Hopefully by now you can see where we're going with this. And hopefully you also have a Gatorade and Cliff Bar handy to reinvigorate yourself after reading all these words. (No one said dominating your draft came without sacrifice!) Owning an advantage at one position is great, but you need to create advantages for as many position groups as possible. Take the top-ranked quarterback first overall and you're certainly not getting the top-ranked running back or wide receiver … or the second, or the third … and probably not even the 10th. This is what makes drafting a QB in the first round pure folly and why fantasy experts almost always wait until later rounds to draft their starting quarterback. The gaps in player point production we've discussed above represent, in raw points, a player's value over a starting-caliber replacement player, a concept that fuels the Moneyball-related acronym VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). It's through this prism we can clearly see the wisdom of taking players before a big drop in value at a position group. Those big dips are Draft Chasms of Doom. And you can navigate them by evaluating players' projected value against their average draft position (ADP). At quarterback in 2024, two QBs finished just behind No. 2 Josh Allen – Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield, tied with 381.8 points. The advantage Josh Allen provided over those two QBs by scoring 3.2 more points over the full season? Almost non-existent. Now consider Allen was drafted somewhere between 22nd and 23rd on average – a second-round pick in a 12-team league. By contrast, Jackson was the fourth QB off the board, around No. 37 overall. Burrow and Mayfield? Around 65th and 152nd respectively. Through that lens, while Allen returned solid value for a second-round pick, Jackson's value was significantly higher, even selected a little over two rounds later. And Mayfield's? Astronomical. Now you just need to see the future for 2025 and draft accordingly. That's where Jake's projections come in. The differential between players' VORP values within a position is of vital importance because your draft can be unpredictable. When a position thins out quickly because someone drafts three QBs before Round 8, VORP can help you decide whether to continue the position run or pivot to another group and gain more value. Let's close with a hypothetical example, giving ourselves the No. 4 pick in the draft and examining a key decision point around our third selection, which falls No. 27 overall. Advertisement By ADP (per FantasyPros as of July 8), TE Trey McBride is the top player available at Pick 27 and would give us a nice edge at a position that thins quickly after the top four players. Based on Jake's projections, George Kittle is the better pick though and you can likely get him later (ADP 40). By waiting and selecting Kittle later, we can maximize the marginal advantage at another position while still creating a positional advantage at TE in a later round. Now let's look at quarterbacks. With Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen likely off the board, the top remaining QBs in this range all figure to go before our next pick, with Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow all projected to go before Pick 44. This means we're approaching one of those big drops at quarterback (depending how you feel about Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield). Meanwhile at RB, Alvin Kamara (97.97 VORP, which translates to a 122.4-point advantage over a replacement level RB) is still on the board and the top remaining WR is Tee Higgins, who holds a projected 83.4-point edge over a replacement receiver. If we were to take Daniels (the top remaining QB, by Jake's projections) the best remaining RBs for our next pick would fall around the Chuba Hubbard range (72.35 VORP) and DK Metcalf (71.12 VORP) for receivers. As Hubbard illustrates, the drop in RBs is much, much steeper than WRs. So too from Daniels (47.2) to the next tier of QBs (Fields at 36.3 VORP). In this example, based on Jake's projections, you should take Kamara and look closely at Kittle coming back in Round 4. We'll find our quarterback in a later round, knowing we've seized an advantage over most teams at running back and, if you can take Kittle, tight end. That's how the Chasms crumble, so to speak. Comprehending how this lens applies to draft strategy can keep you stepping smartly from one position to another, elevating your roster with your selections later this summer. Now, choose wisely and sip that sweet, sweet nectar of fantasy ambrosia at season's end. To look closer at some Chasms of particular interest, read Jake Ciely's analysis at quarterback (now live), running back (Wednesday), wide receiver (Thursday) and tight end (Friday). All scoring and draft selections based on a 12-team league with half-point PPR scoring. VORP and Projected Points Rankings pulled from Jake Ciely's Custom Cheat Sheet. ADP pulled from Fantasy Pros' half-point PPR listing as of July 8. (Top illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Cooper Neill, Gregory Shamus, Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
New York Times
11-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy football 2025 dynasty tight end rankings, from Brock Bowers to Grant Calcaterra
In recent weeks, I reviewed my positional rankings for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Now I turn my attention to the final group, tight ends! The added tiers will help further segment my TE rankings, which is valuable during start-up drafts when determining positional depth as a draft unfolds. For reference, you can find all my rankings now on FantasyPros. Advertisement I have a different strategy than most analysts regarding tight ends — I fade the position with great zeal and energy, preferring to allow other managers to address the players long before I would. In short, outside of the top four to five top names, the rest simply don't measure up when it comes to positional advantage or scoring disparity. Even in most tight end premium (TEP) formats, I've found the position isn't a difference-maker. Historically, top-producing tight ends usually fall outside the NFL Draft's first round. It's much easier to find producers later in drafts or, as I've done many times, simply off the waiver wire when a player rises from anonymity. Every season, there's at least a name or two who produce in the top 10 despite being on the fringe of the dynasty radar going into the season. That said, in recent years, Round 1 tight ends are starting to produce at a better rate. This is the smallest my first tier of tight ends has been in over a decade, due to a combination of age and injury. While there is a clear separation between my first and second tiers, the Tier-2 tight ends are not necessarily significantly lower in potential. In most years, my first and second tiers will possess upwards of eight players, with the first tier usually containing four to five names. No awards to be had here. All three of these names are obvious targets should they fall below ADP in start-up drafts. Most analysts will have Trey McBride above Sam LaPorta in rankings, and I can get behind that. While I prefer LaPorta's profile and system, McBride is very close in value. Should McBride deliver a satisfying encore to his smash 2024 campaign, he may well be my TE2. What Brock Bowers did as a rookie in 2024 was incredible. I don't expect a repeat performance, but he's worthy of headlining this list. My second tier may be longer than most because Mark Andrews and David Njoku are near-elite producers. I see similar production in 2025, and I suspect this tier will look very different a year from now. Most upside: T.J. Hockenson, MIN Most value: David Njoku, CLE Most risk: Tyler Warren, IND If not for injury, Hockenson would be in Tier 1. I expect a full year of production now that he's recovered from his ACL/MCL tear and, without a setback, he's primed for a monster season with sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy under center. Advertisement George Kittle will be 32 years old in October, and I must downgrade him due to a combination of age and offensive change. However, I won't be shocked if he leads the team in targets in 2025. There's no questioning Warren's talent, but talent may not matter in the Colts' system or, more importantly, due to the quarterback situation. Warren can be a difference-maker, but his attached risk is significant as a rookie. Mark Andrews is likely playing his last season in Baltimore, and Njoku is also facing a quarterback challenge. That said, I expect both to produce well for years to come. I target this group when looking for an ADP gem. The run on the position often leaves me targeting Tier-4 names instead. Most upside: Evan Engram, DEN Most value: Travis Kelce, KC Most risk: Colston Loveland, CHI Biggest sleeper: Jake Ferguson, LAR Like Kyle Pitts in 2021, Dalton Kincaid saw an extreme draft premium fade quickly after disappointing production. Now, he may finally be priced well enough to intrigue me. Kelce had a poor 2024, but I expect the offense to return to form in 2025, providing competitive teams with low-value, high-production potential. I love Denver's addition of Engram, given Sean Payton's system and the development of Bo Nix. Engram's athleticism should provide at least two years of top production. I'm buying everywhere I can. Many are high on Loveland, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago, and I'm not confident the rookie will produce in his early years. I'm much more inclined to target Isaiah Likely. I expect Baltimore to extend his contract as Andrews exits. I think Ferguson may be 2025's surprise player at the position. As noted above, it's not uncommon for me to find my starting tight end in this tier. It's all about value for me; in most cases, these names fall into the double-digit rounds in start-up drafts. There's plenty of value in this tier. Most upside: Theo Johnson, NYG Most value: Dallas Goedert, PHI Most risk: Cole Kmet, CHI Biggest sleeper: Mason Taylor, NYJ Johnson has a significant opportunity in 2025 and, as long as he remains healthy, the scheme and quarterback play behind Russell Wilson should provide for upside during his second season in the league. Advertisement Goedert has been faded into oblivion this past offseason, but he should be a producer for one more season, with high-ceiling potential. Kmet has shown flashes but hasn't put it all together, primarily due to quarterback play. Now with rookie Loveland in the mix, it will be hard for him to rise without a change in situation. Sign me up for the upside of Taylor. Truth be told, I'm passing on fellow rookie Loveland and targeting Taylor nearly a round later. There's too much risk, uncertainty and question marks for me to get behind Pat Freiermuth, Cade Otton and Jonnu Smith. It's not uncommon to find value from left-for-dead players in this tier. If I get shut out of earlier-selected players, I'll shop the bargain bin, finding names in the trash heap who have upside situations, often with new teams. There are a couple of noteworthy names here. Most upside: Tyler Conklin, LAC Most value: Mike Gesicki, CIN Biggest sleeper: Tyler Conklin, LAC Best stash: Michael Mayer, LV For several years, Conklin has been productive and underappreciated. Now he finds himself in a better scheme and quality quarterback situation. He's a fantastic low-cost sleeper target for 2025. I feel similarly about Gesicki and think he'll be more productive in 2025 than in 2024. I'm stashing Mayer everywhere I can for his next contract. The Raiders' selection of Brock Bowers stuck a fork in Mayer's near-term potential, but he's still a quality player. I was hopeful Mayer would land in Miami following the trade of Jonnu Smith, but it was not to be. I'll wait it out. Similar to Tier 5, I'm targeting under-valued production assets and upside developmental prospects here. Most upside: Terrance Ferguson, LAR Most value: Juwan Johnson, NO Biggest sleeper: Terrance Ferguson, LAR If it seems I'm focused on Ferguson here, you're not wrong. Listen to what Sean McVay said about the second-round rookie, and it's easy to understand he's a pet project with high expectations. McVay is more mercurial than I'd like as a head coach, but should Ferguson be able to see the field as a rookie and get a bump in playing time in Year 2, he has the potential to be one of the next big second-round standouts. Advertisement I'm not taking the bait on Darren Waller, though I can understand the hype following Jonnu Smith's departure via trade. I'll let another coach ride that wave. Johnson is a very good tight end, and while I'd hoped for a better quarterback situation, he should be a beneficiary of Taysom Hill's absence as Hill recovers from a torn ACL that occurred in December. I also believe Dawson Knox is a 2026 sleeper, as I expect he won't return to Buffalo. His skill set is better than his production, and he's a name to watch in next year's offseason. If you have questions or comments, drop them below. And please follow me on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff. (Photo of Brock Bowers: Jim Rassol / Imagn Images)
New York Times
09-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
A Zero SP fantasy baseball strategy prioritizes hitters. What's the advantage?
Last week, we revisited the Zero SP draft strategy I recommended in February. Inevitably, I suggested not drafting a starting pitcher in at least the first five rounds and ideally abstaining through the seventh round. So, in the most extreme execution, no starting pitchers are selected before pick 100. Advertisement If we took the same approach with hitters, readers asked, what would those results be? In the comments of my Zero SP column, I said we don't need to 'statify' what we know, and we know hitters are less volatile than pitchers. But I've opted to put a fine point on this, at least for the first half of 2025. We can use first-half numbers to determine the chance of finding a top-30 hitter after pick 100 and selecting a bust among hitters in the top 100. In high-stakes drafts for the final week of the draft season, on average, 64 hitters were picked in the top 100 overall compared to 24 starting pitchers. Let's see where the top 30 hitters (as of July 8) were selected in March. I'm ranking the top hitters using auction values calculated by TGFantasyBaseball, based on 12-team mixed leagues with 70% of a $260 budget spent on hitting. Again, ADP is from high-stakes NFFC leagues for the final week of the draft season. Position value is factored minimally in the dollar values, as all positions are allocated a share of the 70% budget. We can quibble with these dollar values, but we're trusting them for this exercise as we did with the pitchers. So we have 33 hitters because of a tie for 30th place. Of those, 11 were drafted after pick 100 (or not drafted at all) compared to 23 of our top 32 pitchers (again, because of ties for 30th). For the hitters, that includes No. 2 (Pete Crow-Armstrong), No. 8 (Brandon Lowe), No. 9 (Byron Buxton), No. 11 (Michael Busch), No. 16 (Riley Greene) and No. 21 (Brice Turang). Two of the top 30 were mostly undrafted: Jonathan Aranda and Andy Pages. So, after pick 100, you still had a shot at 34% of the top hitters through the first half of this season. Compare that to 72% of the top-30 pitchers you could have drafted after pick 100. Now let's look at busts who have thus far devastated managers who picked them among the top 100: That's 20 disasters out of the 64 hitters picked in the top 100, a bust rate of 31%. The bust rate for starting pitchers selected in the top 100 was 42%. But, just five of the top-30 hitters drafted were busts, a bust rate of 17%. (You want to draft as many top-30 hitters as your league will allow.) So, 34% of the top-30 hitters were picked after pick 100, and 31% of those picked in the top 100 were busts. Compare that to 72% of the top 30 starting pitchers being chosen after pick 100, and 42% of the starting pitchers selected before pick 100 ending up as busts, thus far. There's little hope of finding top hitters on waivers during the season because so many more are drafted compared to pitchers. And the constant churn of pitchers, due primarily to injuries, creates opportunities for new ones to emerge in a steady stream. There is a lot less churn on a percentage basis with hitters. MLB managers know hitters tend to perform close to the back of the baseball card, so they are more patient with struggling hitters than with struggling starting pitchers. Advertisement We tend to find hitters early in the season, including Aranda (who I touted here early) and Pages; otherwise, we depend on prospect hitters getting promoted and hope they quickly acclimate to the big leagues — a tough ask. Let's end with a list of top hitters in expected stats (xwOBA) who may be available on waivers. Simply stated, there are not many options. That's it. Hitters are very hard to find at this point in the season, and it's not like these names, as well as they've hit in the past 30 days, offer much league-changing hope. (Photo of Pete Crow-Armstrong: Matt Marton / Imagn Images)
New York Times
02-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Why the Zero SP draft strategy continues to be the right approach in fantasy baseball
Let's revisit the Zero SP approach I recommended in February. The strategy suggests not drafting a starting pitcher in at least the first five rounds and ideally abstaining through the seventh round. So, in the most extreme adherence to the strategy, it means no starting pitchers before pick 100. Looking at just the high-stakes drafts during the final week of the draft season, on average, that's either after 17 starting pitchers are drafted (starting in Round 6) or after 24 are off the board (starting with pick 100). These numbers are down from 19 and 31, respectively, last year, so more people are passing on pitchers early. Advertisement Let's see where the top-30 fantasy baseball starters selected in March were as of July 1. I'm ranking the top pitchers now using auction values calculated by TGFantasyBaseball based on 12-team mixed leagues with 30% of a $260 budget spent on pitching. ADP is from high-stakes NFFC leagues over the final three weeks of the draft season. We have 32 pitchers because of a tie for 30th place. Of those, 23 were drafted after pick 100, or not drafted at all, including Hunter Brown (No. 2), Max Fried (No. 3), Logan Webb (No. 8), Andrew Abbott (No. 10) and Kris Bubic (No. 11). Abbott and Bubic were not even drafted. Last year, it was 20 out of 35. And the number of late-drafted starting pitchers hits is higher this year, despite people waiting longer on pitching. If you didn't draft a single starting pitcher before pick 100 (on average), you still had a shot at 72% of the top SPs (through the first half of the season). The list is weighted heavily towards wins, which are largely unpredictable, but that's all the more reason not to invest heavily in starters. Let's look at the early-drafted busts who have destroyed their managers. Logan Gilbert (ADP 31), Corbin Burnes (40), Cole Ragans (47), Dylan Cease (50), Blake Snell (54), Michael King (69), Pablo Lopez (78), Tyler Glasnow (95), Bailey Ober (96) and Aaron Nola (97). Roki Sasaki (101) just misses the ADP 100 cutoff. Not including Sasaki, that's 10 busts of the 24 starters drafted (on average) in the top 100, which is a bust rate of 42%. So, 72% of the top-30 starters were picked after pick 100, and 42% of the starters picked before pick 100 are disasters. 'But Mike,' you say, 'most of these are injuries, and injuries are unpredictable!' To which I say, 'Exactly!' The point is injuries are completely unpredictable, so why tie up premium draft capital in them? I understand that the increasingly popular Head-to-Head formats are starting to become pitching dominant because you typically have 10 pitchers active compared to just nine hitters. So the format is forcing you to prioritize starters. Basically, you're being forced to drive into a brick wall. The other issue in today's games with starters is innings. Starters are worth less than ever because they are throwing fewer innings than ever. The average number of innings of this year's top-32 pitchers (listed above) is a relatively robust 96, about a 200-inning pace. But a bunch of these guys are injuries waiting to happen. With most of them, who cares, since they cost nothing and the profits are locked in. But today, 200 innings is something achieved by a handful (less than five, on average) of pitchers, and 175 is solid, meaning we would sign for that. This is a 15-to-20% hit in expected value just since the 2010s. Advertisement The three pillars to a Zero SP strategy: (1) Injuries don't hurt you as much as they hurt SP-heavy teams; (2) Starters are pitching fewer innings when healthy and are thus less valuable; (3) The top pitchers are much harder to predict than the top hitters and are about twice as likely to be found on waivers. This is validated year after year, yet we still persist in drafting pitchers early. Heck, I do it sometimes because we think the No. 25 pitcher in the draft is really No. 15 (it's a trap!). It's because we want to like our team after the draft and not enter the season with a mockable staff. We want the projected standings and draft grades to like us, dammit! The other benefit of no premium on starting pitching is no loyalty to any pitcher on your roster. There is no such thing as a sunk cost. So you are not stuck with the dregs of the world because you paid for them. All the starters you have on your team are churnable from the minute the season starts. It's 'put up or get out!' You're always searching the waiver wire for upgrades. Right now, in my top Head-to-Head league, which is very pitching heavy, some names on waivers include Jeffrey Springs (2.97/0.99 the past month), Brayan Bello (2.87/1.21) and Michael Soroka (3.49/0.81 with 36 Ks in 28.1 IP). Mike Burrows (2.73/1.22 with 30 Ks in 26.1 IP) and Justin Wrobleski (2.73/1.06 with 26 Ks in 26.1 IP) are generally available in Yahoo leagues. Pitchers who can actually help your team are always available, while free-agent hitters more often facilitate treading water. (Photo of Hunter Brown: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)
Forbes
18-06-2025
- Sport
- Forbes
Draft These 3 Defenses in 2025 Fantasy Football
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 27: Pat Surtain II (2) of the Denver Broncos celebrates making a tackle for a ... More loss on fourth down against the Carolina Panthers as Malcolm Roach (97) rejoices during the second quarter at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, October 27, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post) One of the things that fantasy owners are constantly underprepared for year in and year out is what defense they should select. While it's not the most fun topic to discuss, if you're in a traditional league format such as an ESPN league, you likely have to start one for your 2025 fantasy football team. With a defense being part of your starting lineup, it's crucial you nail this pick. While most people know to go to the wavier wire in-season, many struggle with a draft strategy. Today, we'll be breaking down the top three defenses to draft in 2025 fantasy football. The plan is simple: since you're going to be streaming a defense most weeks anyway, target defenses that produced last year and also have a good week one matchup. The last thing you want to do is have two defenses on your team in week one. Starting with an elite defense, you have the Denver Broncos. Right now, the Denver Broncos are going as the number one ranked defense on FantasyPros ADP for a good reason. They finished as the number one defense last year with 10.5 PPG, and they're facing off against the Tennessee Titans in week one. The Titans allowed 9.4 PPG to defenses in 2024 fantasy football, which was 2nd in the NFL. Even with Cam Ward coming into town, this should still be a rough offense in week one. If you have the option to select the first defense, the Broncos should always be the pick. The Pittsburgh Steelers are going as the 4th ranked defense this year, and this is a more reasonable price point for you to target. Last season, the Steelers finished 4th in PPG at 8.6, and they have a solid week one matchup. Now, a lot of this is going to depend on T. J. Watt. In 2024, Watt had 11.5 sacks, but there have been some trade rumors around Watt recently. If Watt gets traded, the Steelers will be a fine pick still, but they might not finish in the top five. As of now, though, Watt is still on the team. In week one, the Steelers take on the Jets, who allowed the 9th most points to defenses (5.9 PPG) last season. From a passing perspective, Justin Fields should be considered a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, and the team didn't get significantly stronger on offense. Expect the Steelers to be a good season-long play with the ability to have a massive week one. CINCINNATI, OHIO - DECEMBER 16: Trey Hendrickson #91 of the Cincinnati Bengals reacts after a play ... More in the second half of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Paycor Stadium on December 16, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by) Similar to the Steelers, there's a lot up in the air with the Cincinnati Bengals. For reference, the Bengals are going as the 25th defense off the board in 2025. If Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart end up playing right away, the Bengals will be a great selection. That said, both players are possible candidates to hold out due to a contract issue. Aside from that, the Bengals could be a sneaky play in week one. The Bengals were fine last season, scoring the 16th most points in the NFL at 6.1 PPG. What makes them appealing is the week one matchup. The Bengals take on the Browns, who allowed the most points to defenses last year at 10 PPG. In the NFL Draft, the Browns passed on the right to select Travis Hunter, and they didn't take a quarterback until Dillon Gabriel in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. While the team has improved overall, the offense hasn't made any drastic changes. Expect the Bengals to have a big week one in 2025 fantasy football.
