Latest news with #economicdecline
Zawya
2 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
GCC awarded deals tumble in H1
Projects awarded in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the first half of 2025 tumbled by nearly 39 percent mainly due to a sharp fall in Saudi Arabia, a Kuwaiti-based investment consultancy firm has reported. The value of these contracts dipped to around $86 billion in the first half from nearly $140.5 billion in the first half of last year, Kamco Invest said on Thursday. 'The decline was largely due to the substantial reduction in project activity in Saudi Arabia during the period,' the firm said in a report on awarded contracts in GCC states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the UAE. In the second quarter of this year, the value of such contracts fell by nearly 58 percent to around $28 billion from $68 billion in the second quarter of 2024. 'It was the lowest figure recorded in the past 14 quarters. This downturn was primarily driven by a sharp contraction in project awards in Saudi Arabia, accompanied by a similarly weak performance in the UAE, which experienced a significant year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in contract awards during the period,' the report said. It noted that the sharp fall in project activity in the GCC follows two years of record spending, during which the region invested heavily in large-scale oil and gas developments along with a $1 trillion-plus giga projects programme in the Kingdom. Sector-wise, the GCC construction industry recorded a 60.0 percent y-o-y drop, with awards falling to $8.2 billion in the second quarter of this year from around $20.5 billion in the same period of last year. This was followed by the oil sector, which saw a 98.4 percent y-o-y decline to around $70 million from $4.5 billion in the same period, the report said. 'The construction and oil sectors were the primary contributors to the overall decline in GCC project awards during the second quarter of this year.' On a quarterly basis, Saudi Arabia's total contract awards plummeted by 72.5 percent y-o-y to $9.8 billion from $35.5 billion. In contrast, Kuwait recorded a relatively modest 9.8 percent y-o-y decline in aggregate project awards, reaching $1.8 billion against $two billion. The UAE, the second largest Arab economy after Saudi Arabia, posted a 47.0 percent y-o-y drop in contract awards, totaling $14 billion in the second quarter of this year, down from $26.4 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. GCC states, which control over two thirds of the world's proven oil deposits, are the largest spenders in the Arab region, relying heavily on crude export earnings. The six members projected spending this year at around $542 billion compared with nearly $529 billion in 2024, according to the GCC secretariat. (Writing by Nadim Kawach; Editing by Anoop Menon) (
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jamie Dimon gets real with Europe about shrinking to just 65% of American GDP over 10-15 years: ‘That's not good'
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon delivered a stark assessment of Europe's economic prospects at an event in Dublin hosted by Ireland's foreign ministry, warning that the continent faces a growing competitiveness crisis. Dimon highlighted a dramatic shift in Europe's economic standing relative to the U.S. 'Europe has gone from 90% of U.S. GDP to 65% over 10 or 15 years. That's not good,' he told the audience, which included Irish officials and business leaders. He attributed this decline to structural issues and urged European policymakers to take bold action to reverse the trend. He added 'the EU has a huge problem at the moment' when it comes to the competitiveness of its economy. Simply put, he said, 'You're losing.' The JPMorgan chief argued Europe's best chance at becoming more competitive is to finish building a truly unified internal market that works seamlessly across all industries. He referenced the report on EU competitiveness written in 2024 by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, emphasizing that deeper integration is essential if Europe wants to rebuild its global economic position. While Dimon praised Ireland's open economy, business-friendly policies, and strong education system, he contrasted this with the broader European picture. He described Ireland as a model for economic openness but warned the wider region is hampered by regulatory fragmentation and lagging innovation. Dimon also addressed the importance of transatlantic cooperation, stating, 'America First is fine as long as it isn't America alone.' He called for a new EU-U.S. tariff framework to be completed as soon as possible, warning that escalating trade barriers—such as recent U.S. tariffs on copper, Brazilian imports, and pharmaceuticals—could have significant negative effects, particularly for export-driven economies like Ireland. Dimon cautioned financial markets are underestimating the risks posed by higher U.S. interest rates and new tariffs. He said the market is pricing only a 20% chance of further U.S. rate hikes, but he would put the odds at 40%-50%, citing inflationary pressures from tariffs, migration policies, and persistent budget deficits. He said he thinks there is 'complacency' in markets. Given Dimon's status as an influential voice representing Wall Street, his remarks may serve as a wake-up call for European leaders and investors, underscoring the need for structural reforms and closer U.S.-EU collaboration to navigate an increasingly complex global economic landscape. Dimon's remarks were previously reported by the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and the Irish Examiner, among others. For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Guardian
11-07-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Fall in UK GDP puts focus back on expectations of tax rises in autumn budget
May's unexpected 0.1% decline in GDP will make depressing reading for Rachel Reeves before a tough budget in the autumn. Stronger-than-expected growth would have helped to alleviate the squeeze on the public finances – but there is nothing in this latest data pointing to an upturn. The 0.1% fall in May is marginal, but it follows a 0.3% contraction in April. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised up March's growth, to 0.4% – but barring a bumper June, it looks like the economy may well have been going backwards in the second quarter of the year. 'May's downbeat outturn means a contraction in GDP across the second quarter looks a racing certainty,' said Suren Thiru of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. The news comes just as Reeves and her team were daring to hope that business confidence was recovering after a tough few months despite the uncertain global backdrop. It makes a rate cut from the Bank of England in August, which was already anticipated, look all but certain. It also appears to strengthen the arguments of the monetary policy committee's more dovish members, including Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra, who have raised concerns of late about the weakness of the economy. Taylor used a speech last week to suggest the MPC should make three more cuts in 2025 because of the 'deteriorating outlook'. These monthly figures are frequently revised, but the ONS attributes May's contraction to a sharp fall in industrial production, which was down 0.9%. That was partly offset by a modest 0.1% increase in services output. Within industrial production the decline was driven by a contraction in manufacturing, which was down 1%, after a 0.7% fall in April. The manufacturing contraction included a very sharp 3.7% decline in vehicle manufacturing, after a 9.5% drop in April, which the ONS said reflected model changeovers by carmakers – as well as the effect of car tariffs, which have since been lifted under the trade deal struck with the US. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion At this point it is all but impossible to disentangle the economic impacts of Donald Trump's tariffs, and the increases in business taxes and the minimum wage that came in April. However, fresh speculation about tax rises, after a U-turn on Reeves's £5bn welfare cuts package to head off a Commons defeat last week, risks dampening the mood for consumers and companies in the run-up to the autumn. The shadow chancellor Mel Stride's response to the GDP figures called this a 'ticking tax timebomb'. Or as the chief economist of the Institute of Directors, Anna Leach, put it: 'Despite the welcome launch of a plethora of government strategies, and a spending review which stuck to the pre-set envelope, we're back worrying about tax rises in the forthcoming budget,' while underlying growth in the economy, for the moment, remains 'tepid and beset with risk'.
Free Malaysia Today
11-07-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
When data is misused to further political ends
A huge decline in economic performance from one year to another is alarming for any state. On the other hand, it is also an opportunity for the opposition to discredit the government. This is the scenario playing out in Sabah. Initial data unveiled in June by the department of statistics Malaysia (DoSM) showed that for Sabah, total exports amounted to RM32.067 billion in 2024, down from RM91.33 billion in the previous year. That was a 65% drop. The figures for imports were even worse — RM10.903 billion in 2024, an 84% plunge from RM68.132 billion recorded in 2023. Put together the state's total trade plummeted from RM159.46 billion in 2023 to RM42.97 billion — a drop of more than 70%. Opposition parties Warisan and Umno just could not help but see this as an opportunity to disparage the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) government led by chief minister Hajiji Noor. Warisan vice-president Junz Wong described the decline in imports as 'a worrying drop in investor confidence and economic activity'. Sabah Umno information chief Suhaimi Nasir went a step further, claiming that the RM57.23 billion drop in imports and the RM59.26 billion fall in exports made Sabah the only state with sharp declines in trade. He described it as 'economic stagnation'. 'The sharp drop in imports shows investors are losing confidence in Sabah's administration,' he added. But, as it turned out, the numbers were not as they seemed. Updated statistics issued by the DoSM just weeks later showed a completely different picture. Officials eventually traced the spike in exports in 2023 to a 'single extraordinary transaction'. In other words, without this 'extraordinary transaction', the export figure would have been more or less similar with other years. It is an anomaly. The updated figures from the DoSM show that Sabah recorded exports of RM31.08 billion in 2023 if the one-off transaction of 'extraordinary' item was not taken into account. The new data also shows that exports amounted to RM32.07 billion a year later, accounting for a 3.2% uptick. This is consistent with the data from previous years. Even in 2022, when crude oil and palm oil prices — both major commodities exported from Sabah — were exceptionally high, the state's export amounted to only RM61.5 billion, nowhere near the RM91.33 billion initially reported by DoSM and seized upon by Wong and Suhaimi to further their own political ambitions. That year, crude oil prices rose to as high as US$120 a barrel while palm oil prices ranged from RM5,000 to RM7,000 per tonne. The value of exports dropped to RM32.07 billion in 2023 only because of the decline in the prices of crude oil to just over US$70 per barrel and a 20% drop in palm oil prices that year. While we cannot escape the impact of any change in the global economy, such as the movement of commodity prices, it is clear that the Sabah economy has been on an even keel. This makes it attractive for investors — both foreign and domestic as reflected in the consistent increase in investments. For instance, the manufacturing sector saw new approved investments of RM2.47 billion in 2024, up 63% from the previous year. It is important to note that foreign direct investments (FDI) surged 98% to RM962.3 million in 2024 from just RM16.6 million in 2023, thanks largely to the RM950 million expansion of the Kota Kinabalu Industrial Park by Kibing Group, a Chinese glass maker. This year promises to be even better. In just the first quarter, Sabah has already attracted RM10.9 billion in new investments, more than four times it received throughout 2024. As Sabah industrial development minister Phoong Jin Zhe said, in the face of global uncertainties, Sabah has become a competitive and trusted investment hub. The state government has stressed that the 2023 figures were an outlier. The move by the opposition to reformulate the conversation for political gain is to the state's detriment. Junz Wong (left) and Suhaimi Nasir. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
Reuters
04-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
German industrial orders fall 1.4% in May
July 4 (Reuters) - German industrial orders fell much more than expected in May due to a one-off effect, official data showed on Friday. Orders declined by 1.4% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a fall of 0.1%. The slump was primarily due to the substantial decline of 17.7% month-on-month in orders in the computer, electronic and optical products sector, where several large-scale orders were recorded in April. Furthermore, strong decreases were also observed in the electrical equipment and basic metals sectors. Foreign orders rose by 2.9% on the month, with orders from the euro zone decreasing by 6.5% and orders from outside the euro area increasing by 9.0%. Domestic orders fell by 7.8% on the month, the statistics office said. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from March to May were 2.1% higher than in the previous three months.
