Latest news with #economicforecasts
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Bank of Canada says risk of severe global trade conflict has diminished
OTTAWA, July 30 (Reuters) - The risk of a severe and escalating global trade conflict has diminished since April and there is some clarity about what U.S. tariffs will look like, the Bank of Canada said on Wednesday. But for the second quarter in a row, the bank did not issue regular economic forecasts, citing the uncertainty over the direction of U.S. trade policy. Instead it issued three scenarios as to what might happen. In the current tariff scenario, based on conditions on July 27, GDP grows by about 1% in the second half of 2025 and then picks up, hitting 1.8% in 2027. Inflation stays at around 2%. In the de-escalation scenario, where the U.S. and others cut tariffs, growth hits about 2% in the second half of 2025 and then averages 1.7% through the end of 2027. Inflation falls in the first quarter of 2026 before rising close to 2% in 2027. In the escalation scenario, where the U.S. and others raise tariffs, growth falls in 2025 before picking up in the first half of 2026 and rising to an average of 2%. Inflation rises to just above 2.5% in the third quarter of 2026 and then falls to around 2% in 2027. (Reporting by David Ljunggren, editing by Promit Mukherjee) ((Reuters Ottawa bureau, +1 647 480 7921; opens new tab)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/FORECASTS
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bessent says Fed forecasts 'politically biased'
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday suggested without evidence that the Federal Reserve's widely followed economic forecasts are motivated by politics, as the Trump administration steps up pressure on the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates. "The Fed publishes something called a summary of economic projections, and it's pretty politically biased," Bessent said, summarizing the projections as forecasts for one to two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year. President Donald Trump has demanded the Fed deliver an immediate 300 basis-point rate cut. The Fed publishes interest-rate forecasts from each of its 19 policymakers each quarter and does not identify which policymaker made which forecast. In June, eight projected two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year, seven projected none, two saw one interest rate cut and two saw three. Two of the Fed Board's Trump appointees - Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — have each articulated economic reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also a Trump appointee, has not signaled such support. Fed policymakers universally reject the idea that politics have any role in their monetary policy decisions, and say that to suggest they do undermines the central bank's credibility and its ability to do its job fighting inflation and promoting maximum employment. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNA
23-07-2025
- Business
- CNA
Bessent accuses Fed of ‘politically biased' forecasts, Fed pushes back
WASHINGTON: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday (Jul 23) suggested, without providing evidence, that the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts are influenced by political considerations, a charge the central bank has rejected. "The Fed publishes something called a summary of economic projections, and it's pretty politically biased," Bessent said. He was referring to the Fed's widely followed quarterly projections that reflect the views of its 19 policymakers on key economic indicators including interest rates. Bessent said the forecasts amount to expectations for just one or two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year, which he claimed does not reflect current economic realities. President Donald Trump has called for an immediate 300 basis-point rate cut to boost growth. The summary of economic projections, released after each Fed policy meeting, does not attribute forecasts to individual policymakers. In June, eight officials projected two rate cuts in 2025, seven saw no change, two expected one cut, and two projected three. Several of Trump's appointees to the Fed, including Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, have publicly backed a rate cut this month based on economic data. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also a Trump appointee, has not indicated support for such a move. The Fed has consistently rejected claims of political influence, maintaining that its policy decisions are guided by its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. 'Politics play no role in our decisions,' a Fed spokesperson said. 'Suggesting otherwise undermines the credibility of the institution and the effectiveness of monetary policy.' The Trump administration has increased its pressure on the central bank in recent months, arguing that high interest rates are stifling investment and job creation as the 2026 presidential campaign cycle begins to take shape.
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bessent says Fed forecasts 'politically biased'
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday suggested without evidence that the Federal Reserve's widely followed economic forecasts are motivated by politics, as the Trump administration steps up pressure on the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates. "The Fed publishes something called a summary of economic projections, and it's pretty politically biased," Bessent said, summarizing the projections as forecasts for one to two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year. President Donald Trump has demanded the Fed deliver an immediate 300 basis-point rate cut. The Fed publishes interest-rate forecasts from each of its 19 policymakers each quarter and does not identify which policymaker made which forecast. In June, eight projected two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year, seven projected none, two saw one interest rate cut and two saw three. Two of the Fed Board's Trump appointees - Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman -- have each articulated economic reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also a Trump appointee, has not signaled such support. Fed policymakers universally reject the idea that politics have any role in their monetary policy decisions, and say that to suggest they do undermines the central bank's credibility and its ability to do its job fighting inflation and promoting maximum employment. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
23-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Bessent says Fed forecasts 'politically biased'
WASHINGTON, July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday suggested without evidence that the Federal Reserve's widely followed economic forecasts are motivated by politics, as the Trump administration steps up pressure on the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates. "The Fed publishes something called a summary of economic projections, and it's pretty politically biased," Bessent said, summarizing the projections as forecasts for one to two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year. President Donald Trump has demanded the Fed deliver an immediate 300 basis-point rate cut. The Fed publishes interest-rate forecasts from each of its 19 policymakers each quarter and does not identify which policymaker made which forecast. In June, eight projected two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year, seven projected none, two saw one interest rate cut and two saw three. Two of the Fed Board's Trump appointees - Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman -- have each articulated economic reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also a Trump appointee, has not signaled such support. Fed policymakers universally reject the idea that politics have any role in their monetary policy decisions, and say that to suggest they do undermines the central bank's credibility and its ability to do its job fighting inflation and promoting maximum employment.
