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Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.54%, reaching a 3-1/4 year low. The dollar retreated following a Wall Street Journal report that said President Trump is considering accelerating the announcement of the next Fed Chair. The dollar remained lower on Thursday's US economic news of a downward revision in Q1 GDP and a wider-than-expected May trade deficit report, which was a negative factor for Q2 GDP. The dollar received underlying support from stronger-than-expected initial unemployment claims, core capital goods orders, and pending home sales reports. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin were supportive of the dollar when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Dollar Falls as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -7,000 to 236,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 243,000. However, weekly continuing claims rose +37,000 to a 3-1/2 year high of 1.974 million, above expectations of 1.950 million, signaling more people are staying out of work for longer. US Q1 GDP was revised lower to -0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at -0.2% as Q1 personal consumption was revised downward to +0.5% from +1.2%. The Q1 core PCE price index was revised higher to +3.5% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of unchanged at +3.4%. US May capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and the largest increase in 4 months. The US May trade deficit of -$96.6 billion was wider than expectations of -$86.1 billion, a negative factor for Q2 GDP. US May pending home sales rose +1.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Richmond Fed President Barkin said he expects tariffs will put upward pressure on prices, and with so much still uncertain, he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. The dollar retreated Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may announce Fed Chair Powell's replacement as soon as September, an unusually early appointment. That reinforced expectations of a more dovish-leaning Fed, after Trump criticized Powell for holding interest rates steady. Because Powell's term expires in May 2026, announcing a new Fed chair far earlier than the traditional three-to-four-month transition period could allow the chair-in-waiting to influence expectations about the likely path for interest rates. An overly dovish Fed would likely produce higher inflation, which depreciates the value of the dollar. The markets are discounting a 25% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.43% and posted a 3-3/4 year high. The euro moved higher after the dollar fell on the report that President Trump may name Fed Chair Powell's successor as soon as September. The euro was undercut after the German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined. The German Jun GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.3 to -20.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.2. Swaps are pricing in a 9% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell by -0.63%. The yen climbed to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar as the dollar tumbled on the Wall Street Journal report that President Trump would name a successor to Fed Chair Powell sooner than expected. Thursday's slide in the 10-year T-note yield to a 7-week low was also bearish for the dollar and bullish for the yen. August gold (GCQ25) on Thursday rose by +4.90 (+0.15%), and July silver (SIN25) rose by +0.481 (+1.33%). Precious metals closed higher on Thursday on the report that President Trump might announce his new Fed pick early, which could result in inflation and increased demand for precious metals as a store of value. The slump in the dollar index to a new 3-1/4 year low was also a bullish factor for precious metals. Silver prices had carryover support from Thursday's rally in copper prices to a 2-3/4 month high. Precious metals prices were undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks. Also, hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin weighed on gold prices when he said he favors waiting for more clarity before adjusting interest rates. In addition, reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold. Thursday's downward revision to US Q1 GDP was negative for industrial metals demand and was bearish for silver prices. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Globe and Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Markets Surge on Tech Trade, "Not Critical" Tariffs
We started this trading week with some questions about the ability of the stock market to overcome some perceived major hurdles, a burgeoning war in the Middle East among them. Also, we've gotten a large dollop of economic news thus far for the week, including this morning's Weekly Jobless Claims and Q1 GDP. And yet, nothing seems to faze market participants at this point and time. All markets except the small-cap Russell 2000 are now up for the year, with the S&P 500 a hair away from all-time highs back in February. The AI trade is back on to bolster tech stocks: NVIDIA NVDA and Palantir PLTR, for instance, are at new record highs. And the White House press secretary earlier today said the July 9th deadline on reciprocal tariffs is 'not critical,' meaning, perhaps, in the minds of stock market investors, 'non-existent.' Basically, to whatever extent people were checking their calendars for trade-busting tariffs on the horizon, they're not doing so now — and it's a cause for celebration. Finally, worsening Continuing Jobless Claims, reported on this morning in this space, indicate a labor market that is noticeably weakening. While this is not a good sign economically overall, it may provide a way forward for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates, which it hasn't done all year. Lowering rates is key to unlocking plenty of other aspects of the economy that haven't performed quite so well as NVIDIA and Palantir, such as the housing market. Nike Beats Fiscal Q4 Estimates Reporting fiscal Q4 earnings after today's close is Nike NKE, and expectations were for a fairly dismal quarter. Fortunately, Nike beat on its bottom line for now the eighth-straight quarter with earnings of 14 cent per share, 2 cents better than anticipated. Revenues in the quarter came in at $11.1 billion. That said, these results pale in comparison to the year-ago figures of $1.01 per share on $12.61 billion in sales. Full-year revenues of $46.3 billion outpaced the Zacks consensus, but were still down -10% year over year. North America revenues were down -11% year over year, and that same -11% applied to all regions around the world combined. After gaining +2.8% on this strong day of regular trading, however, Nike shares are down -1.6% on this earnings news. What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow At some point, investors will again begin evaluating these market levels after such a convincing bull run. We're not sure if tomorrow will be the day, but Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data Friday morning may be a guide toward what to expect. Year over year projections are for a +2.3% read on PCE growth, +2.6% on core. These are near the Fed's inflation target of +2.0%, so any surprise closer to that mark may also be met with market exuberance. Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months. Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners Up Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Free Stock Analysis Report
Globe and Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Markets Await New Home Sales Data
Pre-market futures are fluctuating a bit at this hour, starting even with yesterday's close, then swelling nicely on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Indexes are carrying these levels more or less straight across presently, with the Dow -12 points at this hour, the S&P 500 +7 points, the Nasdaq +84 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 +1 point. The biggest economic news this week has yet to come. This will take place Friday morning, when Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May come out. These numbers will inform other economic prints throughout the month, and are the Fed's preferred metric for deciding on monetary policy. Early PCE data comes out tomorrow, including a second revision of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). General Mills Q4 Results Mixed Ahead of today's open, the current space in between informal 'earnings seasons' still sees the occasional quarterly report. This morning it's the fiscal Q4 for household food brands giant General Mills (GIS), the producer of Cheerios, Chex, Pillsbury, Nature Valley and Blue Buffalo pet food, to name just a few. Results were mixed for the company, with earnings beating expectations but results coming up a tad short. Earnings of 74 per share outperformed the Zacks consensus by 3 cents (still 25% lower than the $1.01 per share posted in the year-ago quarter), while revenues of $4.56 billion missed estimates by -1.04%. Guidance was slightly disappointing as well, and the stock is trading down -3% on the news. GIS was already down -16% year to date. What to Expect from the Stock Market Today After the regular trading day gets underway, New Home Sales for May will hit the tape. Expectations are for a big cooling off to 695K seasonally adjusted, annualized units from the previous month's 12-month high of 743K. Mortgage rates remained elevated last month, within a range of 6.76-7.06%, which provides a natural headwind. On Monday, Existing Home Sales actually outperformed expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spends his second of two days on Capitol Hill, today across the rotunda to testify before the Senate Banking Committee about the state of the economy. Yesterday, Powell reiterated his message from last week's Fed meeting that uncertainty regarding tariff policy going forward is keeping interest rate cuts at bay. After today's close, Idaho-based data storage giant Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 results. Expectations are enormous, as they tend to be these days in the semiconductor space. Earnings are expected to have bloomed +156% year over year, with revenues estimated up +30%. Pre-market trading has Micron -1% at his hour, but up more than +50% year to date. Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and Sells We're not kidding. Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent. Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators, and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone. See Stocks Now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report General Mills, Inc. (GIS): Free Stock Analysis Report Micron Technology, Inc. (MU): Free Stock Analysis Report
Globe and Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Pre-Markets Flattish Ahead of Late-Week Economic News
Pre-market futures are fluctuating a bit at this hour, starting even with yesterday's close, then swelling nicely on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Indexes are carrying these levels more or less straight across presently, with the Dow -12 points at this hour, the S&P 500 +7 points, the Nasdaq +84 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 +1 point. The biggest economic news this week has yet to come. This will take place Friday morning, when Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May come out. These numbers will inform other economic prints throughout the month, and are the Fed's preferred metric for deciding on monetary policy. Early PCE data comes out tomorrow, including a second revision of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). General Mills Q4 Results Mixed Ahead of today's open, the current space in between informal 'earnings seasons' still sees the occasional quarterly report. This morning it's the fiscal Q4 for household food brands giant General Mills GIS, the producer of Cheerios, Chex, Pillsbury, Nature Valley and Blue Buffalo pet food, to name just a few. Results were mixed for the company, with earnings beating expectations but results coming up a tad short. Earnings of 74 per share outperformed the Zacks consensus by 3 cents (still 25% lower than the $1.01 per share posted in the year-ago quarter), while revenues of $4.56 billion missed estimates by -1.04%. Guidance was slightly disappointing as well, and the stock is trading down -3% on the news. GIS was already down -16% year to date. For more on GIS' earnings, click here. What to Expect from the Stock Market Today After the regular trading day gets underway, New Home Sales for May will hit the tape. Expectations are for a big cooling off to 695K seasonally adjusted, annualized units from the previous month's 12-month high of 743K. Mortgage rates remained elevated last month, within a range of 6.76-7.06%, which provides a natural headwind. On Monday, Existing Home Sales actually outperformed expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spends his second of two days on Capitol Hill, today across the rotunda to testify before the Senate Banking Committee about the state of the economy. Yesterday, Powell reiterated his message from last week's Fed meeting that uncertainty regarding tariff policy going forward is keeping interest rate cuts at bay. After today's close, Idaho-based data storage giant Micron MU reports fiscal Q3 results. Expectations are enormous, as they tend to be these days in the semiconductor space. Earnings are expected to have bloomed +156% year over year, with revenues estimated up +30%. Pre-market trading has Micron -1% at his hour, but up more than +50% year to date. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.) Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and Sells We're not kidding. Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent. Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators, and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone. See Stocks Now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report General Mills, Inc. (GIS): Free Stock Analysis Report Micron Technology, Inc. (MU): Free Stock Analysis Report
Globe and Mail
12-06-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Jobless Claims Remain Same WoW
Pre-market futures are lower this morning, on what is likely a combination of effects: Weekly Jobless Claims numbers that are pushing up through previous ranges, wholesale economic reads that were better than expected but still elevated, and a dearth of news on the pending trade agreement between the U.S. and China that President Trump announced Wednesday morning. In fairness, these futures were down ahead of these reports hitting the tape. Partly, especially on the blue-chip Dow, due to a tragic plane crash in the city of Ahmedabad in the western region of Gujarat in India. The jet was a Dreamliner 787-8, and while details on why the crash happened — to say nothing of the 242 people aboard the plane, and those in the apartment buildings where the plane crashed — have yet to be determined, Boeing BA shares are down -7% on this news. This all said, the Dow is -225 points at this moment in today's pre-market, the S&P 500 is -25 and the Nasdaq is -85 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -15 points at this hour. We were at weekly and monthly highs just yesterday morning, but it looks as if we may need to earn that level again from here. Weekly Jobless Claims Keep Warming Up Thursday morning almost always brings Weekly Jobless Claims, and today is no exception. Initial Jobless Claims came in at +248K, equalling the previous week's upwardly revised tally and higher than expectations by about 2K or so. The trailing 4-week average in new claims is now +240K; the 4-week average directly prior was +231K. Continuing Claims notched its third-straight week above the 1.9 million threshold: 1.956 million, to be exact — above the 1.902 million the prior week and the highest single week on longer-term claims since mid-November of 2021. Over the past couple months, 1.9 million reports would be revised downward by the next week, displaying an ebb-and-flow on longer-term jobless claims. Now we're inching closer to 2 million per week, which will change the narrative on the jobs market once it arrives. PPI Wholesale Prices Cool Near-Term The May Producer Price Index (PPI) is the wholesale side of prices, out a day following the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which represents the retail side. Headline PPI month over month came in at +0.1%, down from the +0.2% expected and swinging to a positive from the upwardly revised -0.2% for April. Stripping out food and energy prices, core PPI month over month also reached +0.1%, 20 basis points (bps) lower than expected and up from -0.2% the previous month. Year over year, PPI headline reached +2.6% for May, 10 bps higher than the upwardly revised +2.5% for April. This is notching the wrong direction again, but still well off the 3%+ prints on headline PPI from late '24/early '25. Core PPI year over year reached +3.0%, down 20 bps month over month and off the 12-month high in March of +3.9%. Much as the CPI data showed us yesterday, inflation — while range-bound somewhere north of optimum rates from the Fed's perspective — is no longer out of control. The tariff issue is still unresolved, ultimately — the expiration of reciprocals is now T-27 days (barring a future change in tariff policy from the White House) — but kept at current levels, we can see the economy grinding along. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. The Boeing Company (BA): Free Stock Analysis Report
