Latest news with #economicstatement
Irish Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Irish Times
We need to face up to the fact that not all middle-earners are squeezed
While we have all been focusing endlessly on the latest Truth Social post from Donald Trump, the Coalition has been having backroom rows about its budget plans . Serious ones. A key document which sets the framework for the budget – the Summer Economic Statement – will be published next Tuesday. And alongside it will be the Government 's updated investment spending plans in the revised National Development Plan (NDP) . The game, in other words, is on. When you see the Independents who support the Government being filmed for the RTÉ News going to talk to senior ministers, you realise there is some good news coming and kudos to be sought for a new road or rail upgrade. But there will be tough calls, too. And it is no exaggeration to say that Tuesday will be a key moment for the Government as it signals a change of budgetary direction. The Coalition is going to go all in on State investment – energy, water and housing in particular. The catch is that to afford this, it is going to have to keep much tighter control on day-to-day spending and also end the once-off giveaways which have been a feature of the last few budgets. It will sell the message of restraint now allowing for investment for the future. Bread tomorrow is never an easy strategy to sell to voters – but that is what the Coalition is going to try to do. There will still be some extra cash in the budget for State services and welfare and – probably – a modest tax package. Talk of a 'tough budget' is nonsense – look at France where spending cuts, tax hikes and cutting two bank holidays were put on the table this week. But Irish voters have become accustomed to their budget day goodies – and there is going to be one heck of a political row when the penny drops that they are not going to feature this October. READ MORE Given the risks ahead and the State's reliance on tax payments from a few multinationals, the brakes do need to be put on. Spending has soared and Departmental targets set in the budget are regularly exceeded. Central Bank researchers estimated in June that permanent Government spending has risen by a hefty 37 per cent since 2021. Had the 'rule' to limit State spending growth to 5 per cent been adhered to, the increase would have been 16 per cent. There has simply been little culture of spending control and reinstating it is not going to be easy at a time when demands on public services are growing. Meanwhile, 'once-off payments' – repeated so often now that the term is an offence to the English language – have a serious budget price, costing more than €2 billion in the last package, which was a reduction on earlier years. The most expensive elements have been the universal payments to all households in areas like energy credits in the annual cost-of-living packages. Budget ministers Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers have been saying there will be no cost-of-living package this year ; for now, at least, it seems that the rest of the Cabinet are signed up to this. Ministers will spot the political dangers. Households have started to get used to the annual boost and will feel a bit less well-off. The Opposition will scream. But continuing to throw out the universal once-off payments would be a poor use of money, benefiting many for whom the cash is nice, but not necessary. Better to use what funds are available to build up permanent supports and improved services, focused on those who need them. The cost of living is high , for sure, but it is a farce to portray all households as 'hard-pressed', or everyone in the middle ground as 'squeezed'. Effective policy should help those who genuinely are – like many younger families – through better services in areas like childcare and health, rather than repeating the annual cash giveaways. [ Government 'feckless' with public money, Social Democrats claim in budget row Opens in new window ] Meanwhile, with the sums tightening considerably , the Coalition's 'solemn promise' – as Simon Harris put it – to cut the hospitality VAT rate back to 9 per cent is looking like a 'repent at leisure' moment. Even if this is restricted just to food businesses, it will cost €550 million a year. When other demands are being turned down and 'restraint' is the message , this is not going to be an easy sell for the Coalition. The all-in bet on State investment is driven by a view in Cabinet that housing, water and energy provision have all reached a crisis point – an argument being hammered home to them by big investors. Tariffs and Trump are the most discussed threat to future investment – and do indeed pose fundamental questions. But if Ireland does not put forward a plan to develop infrastructure, then investment is going to drift away, whatever happens in the White House. [ Focus in Budget 2026 has to be on transforming infrastructure, Martin says Opens in new window ] This will be mightily expensive. As well as controlling spending elsewhere, the Government will have to run down its annual budget surplus – and there are some risks here. However, it is still legally obliged – barring a downturn – to keep putting cash away in two funds designed to support future spending and investment. As well as finding the cash, the Coalition has to show it can actually deliver big projects – and more housing – an area where the previous administration performed poorly. And it needs to heed the warnings from the Central Bank and the Fiscal Council that if the State keeps pumping out cash across the board, then it will just add fuel to an economy already at full capacity, making it even harder to deliver on the infrastructure programme. Having had a stumbling and slow start, the Government is about to roll the dice for the rest of its term. Its more serious players will know that threats from across the Atlantic could damage the favourable economic position and budget outlook, and might require mid-flight adjustments in these plans. There will be some reassurance that there is €30 billion in cash and liquid assets down the back of the State couch, but also a realisation that if the trends change fundamentally this only goes so far. But sitting and doing nothing does not look like a clever strategy. Investment is the right direction for the Government to take. It will all come down to delivery. And to a bit of luck that Trump's policies, while inevitably damaging, do not upend things completely.
National Post
18-05-2025
- Business
- National Post
Liberals to present 'ambitious, prudent' fall federal budget: Mark Carney
Prime Minister Mark Carney says the Liberal government plans to table a federal budget this fall. Article content Speaking to reporters Sunday in Rome, Carney defended his decision not to present a budget this spring, saying there is little value in rushing the process. Article content Carney noted a new session of Parliament begins with a throne speech on May 27, but the House of Commons is due to rise less than a month later. Article content Article content Opposition parties recently attacked Carney for being vague about his plans after his government said it would not table a budget before the Commons leaves for the summer. Article content Article content Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said instead of a spring budget, the government would put forward an economic statement — which is usually less comprehensive than a full budget — in the fall. Article content Carney said Sunday there will be more clarity in the coming months on Canada's defence spending plans, the overall economic outlook and how to make the federal government more efficient. Article content 'We will have a much more comprehensive, effective, ambitious, prudent budget in the fall,' he said. 'You do these things right, and that's what we're going to do.' Article content
CTV News
18-05-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Liberal government to table federal budget this fall, PM Carney says
Prime Minister Mark Carney is pictured during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, not shown, in Rome, Saturday, May 17, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld ROME — Prime Minister Mark Carney says the Liberal government plans to table a federal budget this fall. Speaking to reporters in Rome, Carney defended his decision not to present a budget this spring, saying there is little value in rushing the process. Carney says there will be more clarity in coming months on Canada's defence spending plans, the overall economic outlook and how to make the federal government more efficient. Opposition parties attacked Carney earlier this week for being vague about his plans after his government said it would not table a budget before the House of Commons rises for the summer. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said instead of a spring budget, the government would put forward an economic statement -- which is usually less comprehensive than a full budget -- in the fall. Carney had a brief audience with Pope Leo XIV today at the Vatican following the pontiff's inaugural mass in St. Peter's Square. This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 18, 2025. Nick Murray, The Canadian Press
CBC
16-05-2025
- Business
- CBC
The Liberals aren't tabling a budget. How does that affect the economy — and your wallet?
Social Sharing The recently re-elected Liberal government isn't planning to release a budget this year, opting instead for an economic statement later this fall. But experts warn that not providing a fiscal snapshot could erode economic confidence and delay the government's agenda. A federal budget is one of the most significant legislative pieces a government can put forward. It provides an update on the health of the nation's coffers and outlines the government's spending priorities. Typically the budget is tabled in March or April and passed before the House rises in June. But a 2025 budget hasn't been put forward yet since Parliament was prorogued in January and the election campaign began in March. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne indicated Wednesday that the government isn't planning on tabling a late spring budget, and will instead opt to release a "substantive" economic statement later this fall. Champagne cited ongoing economic uncertainty — due in large part to the U.S. trade war — as one of the reasons the government won't pass a budget before June. "Hopefully by [fall] there'll be less uncertainty that we need to factor into … I want to be straight with Canadians and give them the best possible [financial and economic] picture that I can," Champagne said in an interview with CBC's Power & Politics. Champagne also argued most of the government's spending priorities were laid out in the Liberals' election platform. WATCH | Champagne defends delaying budget: Finance minister defends delaying full budget to 2026 | Power & Politics 1 day ago Duration 12:58 Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tells Power & Politics passing a middle-class tax cut before releasing a fall economic statement is following 'the logical order' to help Canadians weather economic uncertainty in the coming months. But Kevin Page, a former parliamentary budget officer and head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, told Power & Politics that "the reason you have a fiscal plan is to deal with the uncertainty." "The party platform that the Liberals produced was based on a set of assumptions that would no longer hold. The economy is much weaker now, the deficit will be much higher," Page told host David Cochrane. "I don't think it's a strong argument. I understand the argument more in terms of compressed timelines." Budgets are more than just a fiscal document. In many ways, they are also communications documents and a way for the government to signal where it anticipates the economy is headed. WATCH | Former PBO on delayed budget: Canadians need to see government's finances soon: Kevin Page | Power & Politics 1 day ago Duration 9:42 'It's not sustainable' for the finance minister to put off outlining the government's fiscal position to the fall, former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, who now heads the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, tells Power & Politics. Rebekah Young, an economist at Scotiabank, argued it's important for the government to show its economic projections and what it's prepared to offer if things take a turn for the worse. "Markets are looking for those sorts of signals and now what we've seen provinces do is put ranges of uncertainty around their assumptions so at least they know roughly where those guardrails are," she told Power & Politics. "The big question mark is: if things are a lot worse … the government is likely going to have to deliver additional programs beyond what they've already talked about." In trying to account for uncertainty, the government could be creating more — specifically in the bond market. Government bonds are used to raise funds and often make up a significant portion of individual savings portfolios. Without a clear picture of the government's finances, Page said people will have less confidence in buying government bonds. "The bond rating agencies, they're not going to like the fact that the government is not producing this type of financial document updating Parliament, updating Canadians, on the fiscal position," Page said. Short timeline to crunch the numbers During the campaign, the Liberals promised $130 billion in new measures to boost the economy and transition the country through the trade war. The House returns at the end of May and is scheduled to rise for the summer before the end of June. That leaves little time for the Liberals to put forward a substantive budget. Former prime minister Stephen Harper's government tabled a budget in June 2011 despite that year's election taking place in early May. But the Conservatives largely had the budget ready beforehand, having tabled a similar document in March before the campaign. Page said he thinks it would be realistic for the government to provide a fiscal snapshot this spring and then table a full budget in October. WATCH | No Liberal budget in 2025 'extremely unusual,' Poilievre says: No Liberal budget in 2025 'extremely unusual,' Poilievre says 17 hours ago Duration 2:53 Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre said Thursday that the Liberal government's decision to not present a budget this year sends a 'bad signal' to investors. He said he's willing to sit down with Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss solutions to the issues facing Canada. An economic statement, which is typically tabled in the fall, is different from a full budget. They can be used just to provide a snapshot of the government's finances and economic projections but they are sometimes considered a sort of mini-budget if new spending is included. The Liberal government was able to turn around an economic update in November 2015, roughly a month after taking office. "It's not sustainable for the finance minister not to put out some sort of economic and fiscal document, even if it's just the outlook, which would include the fiscal position of the government as Parliament makes these these changes to the tax act," Page said, referencing the promised tax cut the Liberals are aiming to pass by Canada Day. No risk of government shutdown Even if the government doesn't table a budget, it doesn't mean current federal programs are at risk of running out of money. Budgets are required to outline any new spending the government wants to propose. But funding for ongoing programs is typically approved through different Parliamentary measures, namely the government's spending estimates. Governments are required to table main estimates once a year and supplementary estimates three times throughout the year while the House is sitting. During an election campaign, the government can use a measure known as special warrants to keep the lights on. In May, such a special warrant was issued and will cover operating costs until June. But the Liberals will need to present its spending estimates to cover costs past that point. WATCH | Blanchet wants details of Liberal tax cut: Worried about lack of budget, Blanchet wants details of Liberal tax cut 13 hours ago Duration 5:10 Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet was critical Thursday of the Liberal government's decision to not table a budget in 2025. Blanchet said given the challenges facing Canadians, it's worrying that insight into the country's economic situation will be delayed. The main estimates are meant to be passed every March, but haven't yet been tabled this year because the House hasn't been sitting. The next deadline for the supplementary estimates to pass is June. But without a budget to outline the government's overarching fiscal priorities, spending on new items they promised during the campaign might be rolled out at a slower pace. "You can't implement what they've said they were going to implement without a budget … the clock is ticking," Page said, arguing that the bulk of the Liberal agenda might not get underway until 2026 or 2027. Young said smaller pieces of legislation will be required until the full fiscal outlook is laid out. "I expect we're going to see legislation coming forward one at a time," she said.
Globe and Mail
15-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Politics Insider: Ottawa promises ‘substantive' economic update after suggestions it will not table budget
Hello, welcome to Politics Insider. Let's look at what happened today. Mark Carney's government is promising an early and 'substantive' fall economic statement amid criticism from economists and opposition MPs over indications the Liberals will not table a federal budget this year. After the re-elected Liberal government's first cabinet meeting Wednesday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said his focus is on presenting a fall update as the next public accounting of federal finances. Bill Curry reports that it would be unusual to have a budget within a few months of a fall update, meaning the next budget likely won't be presented until 2026. Audrey Milette, a spokesperson for Champagne, said the government is planning to release a fall statement that will be more than a simple fiscal update. 'We will have a fall economic statement that will be substantive,' she said, adding that it would be released in the 'early fall' after the House of Commons' scheduled return in mid-September. Also, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said today the party plans to launch a legal challenge after losing the federal riding of Terrebonne by a single vote. Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste initially won the riding, but it flipped to Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné after the validation process, which verified the addition of the counted ballots. A judicial recount completed on May 10, however, concluded that the Liberals had won the riding by one vote. Meanwhile, the Ontario government is forecasting a deficit almost 10 times larger than it predicted last fall for the coming fiscal year – at $14.6-billion – as the province wrestles with the impact of U.S. tariffs. In its budget introduced today, the province dramatically increased the amount of red ink it expects in 2025-26, blowing away its previous estimate of a $1.5-billion deficit from last November, which was based on economic projections predating U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Jeff Gray and Laura Stone report that the Ontario budget is the latest fiscal plan issued by a Canadian province to show the damage the tariffs are expected to do to government balance sheets, with Alberta, B.C. and Quebec also among those posting ballooning deficits in recent months. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne. Justin Tang/The Canadian Press B.C. hires former Ontario attorney-general to review services provided in Vancouver's Downtown Eastside: Michael Bryant, former attorney-general of Ontario, was hand-picked by Premier David Eby for the task, with the Premier saying Bryant's 'lived experience' with addictions and recovery, combined with his legal training, makes him an ideal candidate. Manitoba Premier declares a state of emergency near Whiteshell Provincial Park over wildfires: The park is south of where two people were killed because of an out-of-control wildfire this week. Why Carney picked a political veteran as Finance Minister over an executive: Insiders say the role of finance minister is a political beast and it is not for the uninitiated. `We are not a priority': Disability advocates say lack of a minister sends a message: The Prime Minister announced his smaller, 'purpose-built' cabinet meant to deliver change on Tuesday, but the 38-member team doesn't include anyone explicitly responsible for representing the interests of Canadians with disabilities. B.C. Premier to visit Asia on trade trip to reduce U.S. reliance: David Eby will be visiting Japan, South Korea and Malaysia between June 1 and 10 as part of a business delegation that will also include B.C. Agriculture Minister Lana Popham. Prime Minister's Day: No schedule released for Mark Carney. Party leaders: Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet held a news conference on Parliament Hill about the outcome of voting in the Terrebonne riding. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held a news conference on Parliament Hill, covering various subjects. No schedule released for other party leaders. New Chief Government Whip: MP Mark Gerretsen has been appointed to the post, which involves keeping party members informed on House business and ensuring their attendance in the House or at committees. 'It has been an emotional roller coaster. We went from being ahead to losing by one vote.' - Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, the Bloc candidate who lost by one vote in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne after a judicial recount. What happens to marked ballots cast in a federal election? Scroll to the bottom of this newsletter for the answer. There is something deeply wrong at the CRTC. It does not seem to understand that the most important cultural industry in Canada faces major challenges. It seems more preoccupied with processes designed to delay decisions and avoid controversy than solving the problems at hand. — Richard Stursberg is the former head of English services at the CBC, former executive director of Telefilm Canada, past CEO of the Canadian Cable Television Association, past chairman of the Canadian Television Fund, and former assistant deputy minister of culture and broadcasting. We wasted 60 years indulging secessionist fantasies in Quebec. Must we make the same mistake in Alberta? So no, the rest of Canada is not to blame for Alberta separatism, in the sense of having provoked it. It is, rather, our long history of indulging the pernicious idea that it is a legitimate response to a complaint of ill treatment, real or imagined, to blow up the country – or to threaten to. — Andrew Coyne, Columnist Danielle Smith is against forest fires, but she'll leave this lighter right here Alberta's Premier has thus taken up the most yellow-bellied position possible: she's against separatism, but with a wink; she's entertaining separatism, but with plausible deniability. She's poking these caged roosters with a stick, but she's too pusillanimous to actually own what she's doing. — Robyn Urback, Columnist Got a news tip that you'd like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@ Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop. The answer to today's question: After the votes are counted, the marked ballots are placed in a sealed bag and kept in a secure location at the returning office until they are returned to Elections Canada. Special ballots cast by electors from outside their riding are all sent back to an Elections Canada counting facility in Ottawa. Ballots are kept for 10 years. According to an Elections Canada social-media posting that explains this process, if there is a recount, only officials authorized by the Elections Canada CEO can handle the materials in the poll bags.
