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Indian Express
13 hours ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Ram Madhav writes: India and the new world order
Eurasia is in turmoil. Three major conflicts — Russia-Ukraine, Israel's Gaza operations and the Israel-Iran-US conflict — are reshaping the geopolitics of the region. Wars don't just cause physical destruction, they profoundly impact international relations. Beyond Eurasia, US President Donald Trump is causing serious drift and disorder in the Western world. The US and Western Europe, powerhouses of the last century, appear to be decisively moving into a slow afternoon. At the same time, the world is witnessing the unmissable rise of China as a dominant economic and technological superpower. These developments, coupled with a few other important ones, will lead to the emergence of a new global order. Therein lies a major challenge for India. It developed institutions and initiatives based on the premises of the old world. But the emerging order calls for a new way of thinking about its geostrategic priorities. During the ill-fated Cultural Revolution years in China, Chairman Mao Zedong used to call for the abolition of the 'Four Olds' — old ideology, old culture, old habits and old customs. This might be a wrong analogy, but India, too, needs to come out of the mindset of the last century. India has built a strong partnership with Europe over the past few decades. In recent years, the Narendra Modi government has successfully enhanced engagement with Middle Eastern powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Out of those engagements emerged the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) initiative. IMEC is a promising initiative connecting South Asia with the GCC region and Europe. Signed in September 2023 on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi, IMEC became the flavour of the season for many strategic pundits and fodder for think tanks. However, given the changed geopolitical scenario in Eurasia, India needs to recalibrate IMEC carefully. Although a beneficial project, it faces daunting challenges, the cauldron in Eurasia being the major one. With stability eluding the region, IMEC's future, too, remains ambiguous. At a more fundamental level, the positioning of IMEC itself has been flawed. Most commentaries seek to pit it against China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Confusing the geo-economic with the geo-strategic is one of the old-school traits that many in India fail to overcome. It must be remembered that almost all the member countries of the GCC are partners in the BRI while at least 17 out of 27 EU member countries have closer trade ties with China. Only Italy decided to quit the BRI recently while the rest continue to enjoy Chinese largesse. There is IMEC-related romanticism too, with some scholars overemphasising the millennia-old history when India traded with Europe through ports in the Gulf. It is a fact that India traded in spices and textiles with Europe in return for gold in the good old days — so much so that scholars in Rome used to bitterly complain to their emperor that India was draining all the gold from their kingdom. But today's reality is different. Oman, whose ports were an important part of the route in ancient times, is not even part of IMEC. Then there is the logistics nightmare. In the IMEC scheme, goods from India will reach Middle Eastern ports like Jebel Ali (Dubai) by sea lines. From there, they will be transported through the land route to Haifa in Israel. Beyond Haifa, it will again be a journey through the sea lines to European ports like Marseille in France and Trieste in Italy. Some argue that it bypasses the Suez Canal and thus helps save time and money for the exports. This is contestable. Seventy-five ships pass through the Suez Canal every day in normal times. Each carries a minimum load of 1,00,000 tonnes. If the Suez needs to be bypassed, it requires massive rail infrastructure through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Israel. One has to look at the numbers just to understand the magnitude of the challenge. A single reasonably long freight train can carry 5,500 tonnes of goods. That means for every ship diverting to the Middle East, we need a minimum of 18.5 trains to carry that load to Israel. One can easily calculate the number of trains required and the time this would consume if even a fraction of the ships decide to junk Suez and take this route. Moreover, countries on the land route like Jordan and Egypt are still not part of IMEC. Undoubtedly, beyond these nightmarish challenges lies the opportunity of the $18 trillion economy of the EU that India can explore. But it must also be kept in mind that the EU's GDP growth is sluggish at around 1 per cent, and China is already a big presence in the EU market with a more than 55 per cent share in the manufactured goods sector and a significantly growing share in other key sectors. That leaves less scope for India to penetrate. India has a history of such projects. Long before venturing into the IMEC initiative, in 2000, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government announced the North-South corridor project with much fanfare. It was duly signed by India, Russia and Iran in 2003. Two decades later, while the project remained on paper for India, China quickly entered and built formidable ties with the two countries. Similarly, we talked about a Look East policy in the 1990s, seeking to build strong ties with the roaring Asian Tigers. It became the Act East policy under PM Modi. Yet our engagement with a region that became a free trade partner in 2010, and a comprehensive strategic partner in 2022, remained below par. While India's trade with ASEAN remains at $120 billion, China's trade is touching $1 trillion and growing rapidly. Besides IMEC, Eastern and Central Europe, Russia and ASEAN are important regions for India's geostrategic objectives. It is time India reconfigured its global engagements, going beyond old-world romanticism and Cold War calculations, and followed a multidirectional approach with specific end goals. The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP. Views are personal
Memri
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Memri
What Will Happen When Xi Jinping Dies?
Xi Jinping has made himself China's new emperor – its president for life. Under Xi's command, China has abandoned many of its free-market capitalist policies in favor of centralized control even if it carried economic repercussions. Xi has also pursued global hegemony and engaged in bad behavior in trade, diplomacy, and grey zone tactics to achieve it. This triggered tensions between China and the countries with whom it has territorial disputes, not to mention nations that defend the rule-based order. Xi Jinping has made himself China's new emperor. Whether Xi will be successful or not remains to be seen. His quest toward "the rejuvenation of the great Chinese race/nation" is a story that is still being told. But what will happen when Xi dies? Will his successor revert to capitalist values if only to save the economy from further decline? Will his successor abandon the country's hegemonic ambitions and begin to respect the rule-based order? Or will his successor double down on the bad behavior that Xi started? The truth is, no one knows. No one knows because Xi has no apparent political successor. Since eliminating presidential term limits in March 2018, Xi has consolidated power around himself. Those who challenge his leadership, whether overtly or covertly, have been banished from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), imprisoned or abducted without a trace. The few who display promise are suppressed and given no relevant responsibilities within the CCP. As for the next generation of leaders, the CCP continues to comb universities across the country to find rising political stars. Essays, term papers and campus activities of university students are monitored and those deemed to pose a threat to Xi's regime are disallowed from entering the political system. Fledgling political leaders under 25 are not allowed to flourish in this regime. China's leadership revolves and depends solely on Xi and nobody knows what will happen after his passing. To the outside world, we can only assume that whoever succeeds Xi will follow his policies. But for the Chinese people, the specter of Xi's death is frightful. This is because Xi is leaving an economy not in the pink of health. It continues to deal with crippling debt, declining foreign investments, and capital flight in the trillions of dollars. It is plagued with high youth unemployment, a property bust, diminished household wealth and low consumer demand. The trade war with the U.S. and looming sanctions from America exacerbate uncertainties. China's red-hot economy has significantly cooled, having been tempered by Xi's policies to control the economy through state-owned corporations. He funded the country's economic expansion through debt and spooked foreign investors with stringent anti-espionage policies. On top of all this, China faces a demographic timebomb, a result of its one-child policy, which officially ended in 2015. Geopolitically, Xi has provoked tension through aggressive grey zone tactics against Taiwan, the Philippines, India, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, among others. In short, Xi has put China in a difficult position, both economically and geopolitically. Whoever succeeds him will have a lot of work to do. The Likely Scenario Upon Xi's passing, a period of official mourning will be declared with patriotic messaging in full swing to reinforce unity. The government will likely impose strict media censorship to control the narrative and prevent speculation and unrest. In terms of security, the regime will increase surveillance and mobilize its security apparatus to deter protests and political maneuvering. A leadership vacuum will occur, and this will lead to even more uncertainty. Xi's absence will embolden factions within the party, like the Communist Youth League, to regroup and make a play for power. We can expect intense power struggles among the elites, the military, and the rival political factions within the CCP. This will cause temporary chaos, at best, or prolonged political instability, at worst. The CCP will have to convene an emergency Party Congress or Politburo meetings to stabilize the leadership hierarchy and reassert control. Many speculate that Premier Li Qiang is a strong candidate to be acting leader while the CCP consolidates around a successor. At the onset, he will naturally have to intensify civil discipline to preserve the CCP's power. This will further repress the rights of Chinese society, stoking the fires of civil unrest. If China's next leader is indeed Li Qiang (who is less of a hardliner than Xi Jinping in terms of economic policy and ideological rigidity), China's foreign policy will become more conciliatory. Besides, unrest at home will make it difficult for the new leadership to double down on Xi's aggressive style. Economically, Xi's death will cause Chinese and international markets (especially in Hong Kong and Shanghai) to experience a sharp downturn due to uncertainty about succession and future policy directions. Investors will pull money out of China, fearing instability or a breakdown in political control, especially if there's no clear successor. The yuan will depreciate rapidly as capital seeks safety in other stable assets. Chinese businesses, already cautious due to regulatory crackdowns under Xi, will freeze investments or hiring until there is clarity. Multinational corporations will delay expansion plans, concerned about whether a successor will be more business-friendly or nationalistic. Uncertainty will also depress consumer spending. All these will prompt the new leadership (assuming it is Li Qiang or someone who is less of a hardliner) to shift back toward pragmatism, loosening controls over private enterprise, easing regulatory crackdowns on tech and education, and relaxing controls on real estate and private business. To hasten stability, the new leader will likely ease trade tensions with the U.S., the EU, and neighbors – potentially boosting exports and foreign investment. The CCP may even introduce fiscal and monetary stimulus or tax relief. No one lives forever. A leader who is less rigid in his Maoist/Leninist ideology would do well for China. On the contrary, a Xi clone, or one who continues the current path of heavy state control, will cause long-term inefficiencies and structural defects in the economy, while further isolating the country in the world arena. *Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star.
Scroll.in
28-04-2025
- Scroll.in
Elusive caracal caught on camera, renewing conservation efforts
On March 14, 2025, a surprising sight was captured in the heart of Mukundra Hills Tiger Reserve in Kota, Rajasthan. A rare and elusive member of the cat family – the caracal – was recorded by a camera trap for the first time in the region. Rajasthan's Forest Minister, Sanjay Sharma, shared a photograph of the caracal on social media and said, 'On this vibrant day of Holi, the Rajasthan Forest Department is excited to share the first photographic record of the caracal in Mukundra Hills Tiger Reserve. The winter Phase IV survey of the tiger reserve recorded this camera trap image of the caracal. The strong protection regime of Mukundra Hills Tiger Reserve serves as an umbrella to protect elusive small cats like the caracal.' The rare sighting has renewed interest in the conservation of the caracal. 'All tiger reserves conduct three-spot surveys. The first is a sign survey, second is a transect line survey and the third is camera trapping. This winter was the first time that a Phase IV survey was carried out in the season, and this caracal was recorded,' said Muthu Somasundaram, Deputy Conservator of Forests (Wildlife) of Mukundra National Park. Somasundaram notes that the caracal might be dispersing from its nearest known range, which includes Ranthambore, Kailadevi, and Dholpur. 'The species typically has a large home range, so it's possible this individual moved in from Bundi or Kota. Interestingly, the camera trap image also includes a hare,' he added. The forest department now plans to increase the number of camera traps in the location the caracal was spotted and in the surrounding areas, to better understand its presence and range. 'Caracals are nocturnal animals, which makes them even harder to study. All the images we've captured so far have been during night time. The goal is to maximise the chances of capturing more images and learning about its movements,' Somasundaram told Mongabay India. Where the caracal roams The caracal has a deep-rooted historical presence in India. In 1616, Mughal emperor Jahangir reportedly hunted one near Ajmer. Alongside cheetahs, caracals were praised by royals for their agility and used in hunts, known by their Persian name siyah gosh (black-eared one). Today, there is no official estimate of India's caracal population; media reports suggesting around 50 individuals, are unsubstantiated. According to Dharmendra Khandal, co-author of the book Caracal: An Intimate History of a Mysterious Cat and Executive Director of Tiger Watch, caracals once ranged across 13 states but are now confined to Gujarat, Rajasthan, and parts of Madhya Pradesh. A study by Khandal and others documented 134 caracal records from 1616 to 2020. The species' range has shrunk drastically from 794,000 square kilometres pre-1947 to just 16,709 square kilometres in 2020 – a 95.95% decline. Globally listed as least concern by the IUCN, the caracal is considered near threatened in India and protected under Schedule I of the Wildlife Protection Act, 1972. This makes the first-ever camera-trap capture in Mukundra Tiger Reserve, all the more significant. Khandal noted that this is the first A-category (photographic) record of a caracal from Mukundra in two decades, despite camera trapping since 2012. The last known record from Mukundra dates to 1962. Until recently, such records were limited to Gujarat and a few districts in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. With recent confirmations from Bundi and now Kota, Rajasthan now has photographic evidence from six districts – an encouraging sign for caracal conservation. An earlier study by Khandal and his team, recorded 176 caracal images from 23 sites in Rajasthan between 2015 and 2020. Muthu Somasundaram pointed out that the semi-arid ecosystems of central Rajasthan and Gujarat suit the caracal's habitat needs. 'Regular camera trapping in protected areas like tiger reserves boosts the chances of detecting elusive species like the caracal, which might otherwise go unnoticed,' he said. Gobind Sagar Bhardwaj, Additional Director General of Forests (Project Tiger) and Member Secretary of the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA), told Mongabay India, 'The caracal's landscape lies in the Chambal region. I personally saw them two to three times in Ranthambore many years ago. Now that we have photographic records from Mukundra and Ramgarh Vishdhari, there is a need for a comprehensive study on the species to better understand its population, behaviour, and habitat.' As a member of the cat family, the caracal's presence is an indicator of a balanced and healthy ecosystem. These cats help regulate the populations of rodents and other small mammals, playing a crucial role in maintaining ecological stability. Outside protected areas Khandal also noted an important pattern – all caracal sightings in Rajasthan have occurred within tiger reserves. 'This suggests that these well-managed habitats offer safer conditions. Though Sariska hasn't had confirmed records since 2012, I believe caracals may still exist there,' he said. However, some suggest that potential habitats outside these protected areas should also be studied for their presence. Wildlife biologist Sumit Dookia pointed out that a 1999 record of Jalore district published by the Bombay Natural History Society, hints at the caracal's presence beyond reserves – indicating a need to revisit historical data to assess its wider distribution. Dookia said that while there's no scientific evidence of caracals in western Rajasthan outside reserves, locals occasionally report sightings. A recent video from Pakistan's Cholistan Desert – ecologically similar to western Rajasthan or Thar desert – suggests suitable habitat exists. 'I believe the Mukundra sighting hints at a possibly wider presence and immediate government-led conservation efforts is important for the species,' Dookia added. Need for baseline data In 2021, the National Board of Wildlife and Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change included the caracal in a plan to conserve 22 priority species. However, Dharmendra Khandal stressed the need for thorough scientific studies before taking action. Instead, Khandal suggests focussing on more studies to understand where caracals live, their food habits, habitat preferences, and population status. 'Solid baseline data is essential for crafting effective conservation strategies suited to India's semi-arid regions,' Khandal said. While the Mukundra sighting is promising, experts urge cautious optimism. Joy Gardner of the Jaipur-based nonprofit Hope and Beyond, cautioned against calling the recent Mukundra caracal recording as a breakthrough, noting that it was a chance capture from tiger-focused camera traps. 'No targeted efforts have been made to study caracals. We need focused surveys in deeper forest zones, where more individuals might be found,' he said. Shekhar Kolipaka, biosocial conservation researcher from Leiden University, echoed a similar sentiment, warning that caracals are struggling in degraded scrublands and need urgent, in-depth studies to assess their status in modern India.
