Latest news with #energyexports
Forbes
19 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Leaders May Step Up Pressure On Russian Gas Sales To End Ukrainian War
Russia's resumed activity at Arctic LNG 2 represents an effort to reach Asian markets and fuel the ... More Kremlin's ongoing war effort. (Photo by Konstantin ZAVRAZHIN / SPUTNIK / AFP) (Photo by KONSTANTIN ZAVRAZHIN/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images) SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images Telling the BBC that he is 'disappointed but not done with Vladimir Putin,' President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against Russia, including secondary tariffs against countries that help dodge sanctions on the Kremlin's energy exports., The U.S. Senate is considering a bill to give the president the ability to impose additional 'sledgehammer' measures with up to 500 percent secondary sanctions. Under pressure, Moscow is expanding its hydrocarbon exports by boosting LNG shipments to the Asian markets from Siberia's Yamal Peninsula. On June 26th, the Russian tanker Iris docked at Arctic LNG 2 terminal, a joint venture between Russia's Novatek, Chinese CNPC and CNOOC, and Mitsui and JOGMEC, marking the first departure from the sanctioned facility since October 2024. The Iris is part of Moscow's shadow fleet, which exports Russian energy abroad, dodging Western sanctions through a convoluted web of false registries, deactivated transponders, covert offloading, waived insurance, shell games, and confusing ownership schemes. Arctic LNG 2 raised outputs to record levels, averaging 14 million cubic meters/day in the last days of June, compared to 8.9 million cubic meters/day for most of the month. That's enough in a single day to power approximately 13,461 American households for a year. It appears that Russia plans to exploit the Northern Sea Route to dodge sanctions. Running through the Arctic Ocean and around the northern shores of Eurasia, it is only navigable from late June/July to October/November and provides Moscow with direct access to Asia. As ice in the Arctic Ocean melts, Russia is focused on tripling LNG exports by 2030. It is up to the U.S. and the EU to tighten sanctions to help force the issue of peace negotiations with Ukraine. The Northern Sea Route allows for Russia to export LNG to Asia, utilizing an alternative to European ... More customers to bolster its war effort. Nikkei Asia From August to October of 2024, eight shipments left Arctic 2 LNG and were moved to floating storage units as sales fell. According to traders, personnel affiliated with the facility have called on potential buyers in India and China, attempting to sell this fuel. On the day the Iris docked, the JKM benchmark price for spot LNG deliveries to Northeast Asia was at $12.86/MMBtu, high for the season. Incentivized by discounts, Asian buyers have been induced to purchase Russian gas product in the past, as Western sanctions have primarily targeted firms specifically associated with shipping. This year to date, Japan and China are Russia's second and third biggest customers globally, importing 3.1 million mt and 3 million mt of gas, respectively. JKM Prices are at a higher level this year than in 2024, likely due to tensions in the Middle East. The biggest buyer for LNG is the EU, which has a proposed plan to phase out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027. EU purchases, of course, are not supplied by the shadow fleet. While Moscow's known fossil fuel export revenue has trended down compared with 2022, in addition to Japan and China, it has several other Asian customers, including South Korea, India, Taiwan, and Singapore. In April, China halted U.S. LNG purchases due to tariffs. According to China's Ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, Chinese buyers are looking to increase their Russian imports. Putin is pushing for Power of Siberia 2 pipeline agreements amidst these changes, as China's imports of piped Russian gas have increased since the hold on American gas. Mitsui OSK Lines, a Japanese shipping company, has disregarded sanctions and continued business as usual. In May, the EU sanctioned three of its vessels. Do Conflicts in the Middle East Make Russian LNG More Attractive? Following the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, Asian buyers may increase imports of Russian LNG to derisk portfolios, decreasing reliance on Middle Eastern exports. The recent conflict caused Brent Crude oil and JKM LNG prices to jump 18% and 14% respectively for a short time. Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz spooked investors and buyers. Any closure would disrupt shipping through the Persian Gulf. Notably, Qatar exports roughly 77 million mt of LNG per year, 20% of global supply. A closure of the Strait would disproportionally affect Asian buyers, as over 80% of crude oil and LNG transported through the Strait is consumed in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Following President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, European benchmark TTF gas prices fell by 14% and began stabilizing in the pre-conflict price range. In late June, analysts warned that oil prices would remain volatile for the coming weeks and OPEC+ would likely be cautious about increasing production. As fears over regional stability linger, Russian LNG imports may be a tariff-free option to avoid critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. However, buyers must consider the moral hazard and the potential of escalating sanctions. Can Russia Overcome Setbacks this Summer? While Arctic LNG 2 activity suggests Russia is preparing to increase LNG sales, Moscow will have to overcome challenges to further penetrating the Asian markets. The facility's first train has remained shut with full storage tanks, while the second train produced its first LNG in May 2025. Shipments that left in late 2024 are in floating storage, as Russia has struggled to find buyers. Sanctions remain a constant problem, although Moscow has found ways to circumvent them with varying degrees of success. In March 2025, the EU's ban on transshipment of Russian LNG in its ports became effective, severely limiting options. Overland routes are no panacea. China has the most developed gas infrastructure linked directly to Russia, buts its increasing clout with Gazprom presents the Kremlin with strategic headaches; and Beijing is unwilling to facilitate transit of piped gas to other customers in Southeast Asia. Other possible vectors south through Central Asia to India are either underdeveloped, incomplete, involve transshipment through Afghanistan or ports in Iran, which would merely increase risk. The seasonal opening of the Northern Sea Route and tension in the Middle East create an opportunity for Russian LNG to refill the Kremlin's war chest. This makes it imperative for the United States and Europe to expand sanctions on Russian energy with a focus on transit, shipping, insurance, and middlemen in Asia.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's first large-scale shipment of LNG delivered to port in South Korea
A tanker carrying Canada's first major shipment of liquefied natural gas has arrived at a South Korean port, ushering in a new era for Canadian energy exports that some had feared would never come, as the country's natural gas reaches new buyers in premium Asian-Pacific markets. A vessel called the GasLog Glasgow delivered the historic shipment from LNG Canada's terminal in Kitimat, B.C. The analytics firm MarineTraffic shows the Shell PLC-chartered tanker arrived at a major import terminal and storage base in Tongyeong, South Korea shortly after 10 a.m. local time on July 17. Though it is the world's fifth-largest producer of natural gas − with a significantly shorter sailing time to Asian markets compared to competitors on the United States Gulf coast — Canada is a late entry to global LNG markets, nearly a decade after the U.S. and around three decades after Australia and Qatar. Until this week, proponents of the sector had lamented that all of Canada's natural gas exports, averaging around 8.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, are delivered via pipeline to the U.S. But that is now set to change as LNG Canada continues its ramp-up. Two other tankers have left LNG Canada's terminal and remain in transit, heading to ports in Japan and South Korea. In total, the B.C. terminal has shipped 11 billion cubic feet of natural gas since the facility was commissioned, RBC Capital Markets reported in a research note published Wednesday. The bank based its estimate on the total capacities of the three vessels that have departed from Kitimat so far. The Trudeau legislation Canada's oilpatch hates — and what Carney is doing about it Canadian natural gas prices could climb 60% this year as LNG exports ramp up, Deloitte predicts A fourth vessel — Petro-China-chartered tanker called WuDang — is in the port of Kitimat awaiting loading, RBC said. And three more vessels are expected to arrive to load shipments in the coming weeks. • Email: mpotkins@ Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Forbes
15-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
For Peace With Ukraine, Increase Pressure On Russian LNG Sales To Asia
Russia's resumed activity at Arctic LNG 2 represents an effort to reach Asian markets and fuel the ... More Kremlin's ongoing war effort. (Photo by Konstantin ZAVRAZHIN / SPUTNIK / AFP) (Photo by KONSTANTIN ZAVRAZHIN/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images) Telling the BBC that he is 'disappointed but not done with Vladimir Putin,' President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against Russia, including secondary tariffs against countries that help dodge sanctions on the Kremlin's energy exports., The U.S. Senate is considering a bill to give the president the ability to impose additional 'sledgehammer' measures with up to 500 percent secondary sanctions. Under pressure, Moscow is expanding its hydrocarbon exports by boosting LNG shipments to the Asian markets from Siberia's Yamal Peninsula. On June 26th, the Russian tanker Iris docked at Arctic LNG 2 terminal, a joint venture between Russia's Novatek, Chinese CNPC and CNOOC, and Mitsui and JOGMEC, marking the first departure from the sanctioned facility since October 2024. The Iris is part of Moscow's shadow fleet, which exports Russian energy abroad, dodging Western sanctions through a convoluted web of false registries, deactivated transponders, covert offloading, waived insurance, shell games, and confusing ownership schemes. Arctic LNG 2 raised outputs to record levels, averaging 14 million cubic meters/day in the last days of June, compared to 8.9 million cubic meters/day for most of the month. That's enough in a single day to power approximately 13,461 American households for a year. It appears that Russia plans to exploit the Northern Sea Route to dodge sanctions. Running through the Arctic Ocean and around the northern shores of Eurasia, it is only navigable from late June/July to October/November and provides Moscow with direct access to Asia. As ice in the Arctic Ocean melts, Russia is focused on tripling LNG exports by 2030. It is up to the U.S. and the EU to tighten sanctions to help force the issue of peace negotiations with Ukraine. The Northern Sea Route allows for Russia to export LNG to Asia, utilizing an alternative to European ... More customers to bolster its war effort. Opportunity in Asia for Russian LNG From August to October of 2024, eight shipments left Arctic 2 LNG and were moved to floating storage units as sales fell. According to traders, personnel affiliated with the facility have called on potential buyers in India and China, attempting to sell this fuel. On the day the Iris docked, the JKM benchmark price for spot LNG deliveries to Northeast Asia was at $12.86/MMBtu, high for the season. Incentivized by discounts, Asian buyers have been induced to purchase Russian gas product in the past, as Western sanctions have primarily targeted firms specifically associated with shipping. This year to date, Japan and China are Russia's second and third biggest customers globally, importing 3.1 million mt and 3 million mt of gas, respectively. JKM Prices are at a higher level this year than in 2024, likely due to tensions in the Middle East. The biggest buyer for LNG is the EU, which has a proposed plan to phase out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027. EU purchases, of course, are not supplied by the shadow fleet. While Moscow's known fossil fuel export revenue has trended down compared with 2022, in addition to Japan and China, it has several other Asian customers, including South Korea, India, Taiwan, and Singapore. In April, China halted U.S. LNG purchases due to tariffs. According to China's Ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, Chinese buyers are looking to increase their Russian imports. Putin is pushing for Power of Siberia 2 pipeline agreements amidst these changes, as China's imports of piped Russian gas have increased since the hold on American gas. Mitsui OSK Lines, a Japanese shipping company, has disregarded sanctions and continued business as usual. In May, the EU sanctioned three of its vessels. Do Conflicts in the Middle East Make Russian LNG More Attractive? Following the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, Asian buyers may increase imports of Russian LNG to derisk portfolios, decreasing reliance on Middle Eastern exports. The recent conflict caused Brent Crude oil and JKM LNG prices to jump 18% and 14% respectively for a short time. Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz spooked investors and buyers. Any closure would disrupt shipping through the Persian Gulf. Notably, Qatar exports roughly 77 million mt of LNG per year, 20% of global supply. A closure of the Strait would disproportionally affect Asian buyers, as over 80% of crude oil and LNG transported through the Strait is consumed in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Following President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, European benchmark TTF gas prices fell by 14% and began stabilizing in the pre-conflict price range. In late June, analysts warned that oil prices would remain volatile for the coming weeks and OPEC+ would likely be cautious about increasing production. As fears over regional stability linger, Russian LNG imports may be a tariff-free option to avoid critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. However, buyers must consider the moral hazard and the potential of escalating sanctions. Can Russia Overcome Setbacks this Summer? While Arctic LNG 2 activity suggests Russia is preparing to increase LNG sales, Moscow will have to overcome challenges to further penetrating the Asian markets. The facility's first train has remained shut with full storage tanks, while the second train produced its first LNG in May 2025. Shipments that left in late 2024 are in floating storage, as Russia has struggled to find buyers. Sanctions remain a constant problem, although Moscow has found ways to circumvent them with varying degrees of success. In March 2025, the EU's ban on transshipment of Russian LNG in its ports became effective, severely limiting options. Overland routes are no panacea. China has the most developed gas infrastructure linked directly to Russia, buts its increasing clout with Gazprom presents the Kremlin with strategic headaches; and Beijing is unwilling to facilitate transit of piped gas to other customers in Southeast Asia. Other possible vectors south through Central Asia to India are either underdeveloped, incomplete, involve transshipment through Afghanistan or ports in Iran, which would merely increase risk. The seasonal opening of the Northern Sea Route and tension in the Middle East create an opportunity for Russian LNG to refill the Kremlin's war chest. This makes it imperative for the United States and Europe to expand sanctions on Russian energy with a focus on transit, shipping, insurance, and middlemen in Asia.
Globe and Mail
07-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Business Brief this week: A stampede, a gold rush, and an AI arms race
Good morning. This week's AI for Good Summit in Geneva is showing how the technology's innovations are also pushing global alliances into unfamiliar territory. That's in focus today – along with this year's Calgary Stampede and a gold rush that's obscuring an inconvenient truth about Canada's exports. M&A: Globalive chair eager to apply past experience as consortium closes takeover of Wealth One Bank Innovation: Canadian companies advance digital twin technology, despite lagging adoption at home Auto analysis: The tale of the Agnelli family's two contrasting car companies, Ferrari and Stellantis Tomorrow: Ahead of the July 9 deadline set by Trump for countries to strike trade deals with the U.S., the president said the White House would begin sending letters over the weekend to countries in batches of 10 to notify them of the tariff rates they can expect. This week: The Calgary Stampede, which opened on Friday and runs through July 13, is known for many things: rodeo, pancakes and denim as far as the eye can see. But its real currency is connection. For 10 days, every bar and rooftop patio in the city is turned into a pop-up boardroom. This year's edition lands at an uneasy moment. Alberta's energy sector has big wins to toast – LNG exports have begun from the West Coast, the long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline is pumping and Ottawa is suddenly talking about Canada as an 'energy superpower.' The city's mood is buoyant. But a cautious kind of buoyancy, if there can be such a thing: Political uncertainty still looms large, from Mark Carney's early tenure in Ottawa to the underwhelming response to Alberta's proposed new pipeline. On the books: Earnings and economic events are light, but Canada's recent trade report is a reminder of how hard domestic exporters are being hit as Carney presses for a tariff-free deal with the U.S. The UN's AI for Good summit this week is revealing how countries are racing to build sovereign computing infrastructure that is reliant on foreign investment. In an attempt to capitalize on the economic promise of artificial intelligence, Western governments are investing in domestic data centres, drafting AI rules, and striking deals with countries that, less than a decade ago, might have faced sharper scrutiny. By turning to investors such as Saudi Arabia, critics warn that attempts to reduce reliance on U.S. tech giants risk entrenching new forms of dependence on states with close ties to China and deeply contested human rights records. Both Canada and the U.S. have set aside recent ruptures over human rights in favour of strategic and economic interests. Canada's 2018 standoff – sparked by then–foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland's criticism of Saudi Arabia's arrest of women's rights activists – formally ended in 2023 when the two governments restored ties on the basis of 'mutual respect and common interests.' For the U.S., Russia's invasion of Ukraine heightened the need for oil market stability and stronger regional alliances, prompting Washington to re-engage with Riyadh despite earlier condemnations of the kingdom's role in the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (During his first presidential campaign, Joe Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia 'pay the price' and called the country a 'pariah' with 'very little social redeeming value.') Human-rights advocates have remained critical of the UN for inviting Saudi officials to the AI summit – and concern remains over Riyadh's expanding ties with China, which include co-operation on data centres, chip development and surveillance technologies that could complicate Western efforts to build secure, independent AI systems. In May, President Donald Trump signed a US$600-billion strategic agreement with Saudi Arabia, including more than US$40-billion earmarked for artificial intelligence and related infrastructure. Canada, too, is open to discussions with Saudi Arabia to support domestic data-centre expansion. In a recent interview with The Globe's Joe Castaldo and Pippa Norman, federal AI minister Evan Solomon said Ottawa is in search of 'pockets of capital' to help build sovereign capacity, while insisting any agreements would be pursued with 'eyes wide open' and preserve Canadian oversight. 'Diplomatic ties and investment does not mean you agree with governments,' he said. 'We can't look at AI as a walled-off garden. Like, 'Oh, we cannot ever take money from X or Y.'' Ottawa's openness was underscored last week when Castaldo reported that U.S. data-centre firm CoreWeave Inc. will soon operate a site in Cambridge, Ont., with Canadian AI startup Cohere Inc. – backed by $240-million from a federal fund – as a customer. British-Canadian AI guru Geoffrey Hinton, who is presenting tomorrow, told The Globe he planned on telling Solomon that Canada needs to regulate AI when the two met last week. But he acknowledged a trade-off. 'The big problem is that unless you can get international agreements, countries that don't regulate will have an advantage over countries that do. That's the same for exploiting natural resources.' It's just one issue for Canada to tackle as it navigates the contradictions of a sovereignty strategy built on foreign capital, no clear regulatory framework and a bit of moral flexibility. Canada's trade deficit with the world narrowed in May from a record high the previous month. But tariffs continued to weigh on exports to the United States – and the rise in prices for gold skewed the picture. Canada's trade deficit with the world – in very technical terms according to The Globe's Jason Kirby, 'a measure of how much more stuff we buy from other countries than sell to them' – fell to $5.9-billion in May from a record high of $7.6-billion in April. But after stripping out imports and exports of the gold category, Kirby observes, Canada's trade deficit widened to $10.3-billion. Bednar: If a toaster burns you, you can sue. But if Big Tech burns you, you're out of luck. Keller: Trump has yet to kill the golden goose that is the U.S. economy. But he's working on it. Hirsch: To increase defence spending, Canada must cut deeper, tax harder and borrow more – all at once. Stock markets were mixed amid confusion as U.S. officials flagged a delay on tariffs but failed to provide specifics on the changes. Wall Street futures were in negative territory while TSX futures pointed higher. Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.34 per cent in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 edged higher 0.13 per cent, Germany's DAX gained 0.77 per cent and France's CAC 40 rose 0.25 per cent. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed 0.56 per cent lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.12 per cent. The Canadian dollar traded at 73.19 U.S. cents.
Khaleej Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
How will UAE, rest of the world be impacted if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?
[Editor's Note: Follow our live blog for real-time updates on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.] Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have once again raised fears that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. According to Goldman Sachs, a prolonged blockade could push oil prices up to $100–$120 per barrel, and possibly even $150 in worst-case scenarios. So, what happens if Iran follows through? Here's a region-by-region breakdown. What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 33-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman. It's the world's most critical oil chokepoint. In 2024, about 21 million barrels of crude oil and refined products passed through it every day — that's 20 per cent of global oil consumption. It also handles a quarter of all seaborne oil trade and 20 per cent of global LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. For the UAE, the strait is a vital trade route. About 75 per cent of its oil exports go to Asia, especially China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Impact on UAE and Middle East A closure could have implications for energy exports across the region. The UAE has proactive measures to diversify its export routes should that happen. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the Fujairah terminal (capacity: 1.8 million barrels per day) provides an alternative route for a substantial portion of its exports, which averaged 3.3 million b/d in 2024. In the event of a short-term price surge, higher oil prices could enhance UAE revenues. However, longer disruptions might lead to logistical challenges and increased shipping costs, especially for trade with Asia. Other Gulf countries would also face pressures: Saudi Arabia sends 6 million b/d through the strait but can partially reroute via its East-West Pipeline (capacity: 5 million b/d). Qatar may see LNG shipments impacted, while Kuwait and Iraq, with limited bypass options, could face temporary export constraints. United States The US imports less than five per cent of its oil through the strait, so direct supply disruption is minor. But price shocks wouldn't spare American consumers. If Brent crude crosses $100, US gas prices could jump above $4 per gallon, adding to inflation and hurting household budgets. Europe Europe relies on Qatar for about 15 per cent of its gas, making the Strait of Hormuz critical. Any blockade would worsen Europe's ongoing energy crunch, already stretched by cuts in Russian gas. Higher oil and gas prices would hit homes and factories, fuelling inflation and slowing growth. Asia Asia stands to lose the most. About 75 per cent of the oil passing through the strait is headed for Asia. China gets 45 per cent of its crude via the strait and would have to tap into emergency reserves. India, also heavily reliant on Gulf oil, would face fuel shortages and economic disruption. Japan and South Korea would suffer supply shocks and rising costs. Tankers would be forced to reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, raising global shipping expenses and affecting supply chains. Africa East African countries like Kenya and Tanzania, which import oil through the strait, would see fuel prices surge. Tanker costs to the region have already risen 25–35 per cent in 2024 due to Red Sea and Hormuz risks. A full closure would worsen shortages and drive up living costs. Can Iran actually block the strait? Yes, Iran has the tools: naval mines, anti-ship missiles, and GPS jamming. It disrupted shipping during the 1980s Iran-Iraq "Tanker War", though it never fully shut the strait. Iran's state-run Press TV reported earlier that parliament had approved a plan to close the strait, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council. A total blockade is unlikely, according to experts. Iran itself exports 2.5 million b/d of oil through the strait, including 1.5 million b/d to China. Closing it would hurt its own economy and likely invite a US-led military response. Global economic fallout A sustained closure would trigger a global energy crisis similar to the 1973 oil embargo. Oil could hit $150 per barrel, though that's speculative. Inflation would spike. Supply chains would fray. Rerouted shipping would add costs across industries. Strategic petroleum reserves — 600 million barrels in the US, 400 million in Europe, and 1.2 billion in Asia — could mitigate short-term shortages, but drawdown rates and accessibility vary, limiting long-term relief. Prolonged disruptions would strain economies, particularly in energy-hungry Asia. Where things stand now As of June 23, 2025, the Strait of Hormuz remains open. But Brent crude has risen from $75 to $82 per barrel in recent weeks. In response to Iran's threats, the US has redirected the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group from the South China Sea to the Middle East, where it has joined the USS Carl Vinson in the Arabian Sea. The presence of two carrier groups in the region is described as part of broader efforts to reinforce maritime security in the region. Shell CEO Wael Sawan, has meanwhile cautioned that any escalation could 'disrupt global trade significantly' .
