Latest news with #enrichment
Telegraph
3 days ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
Iran's hidden nuclear fortress Trump's bombs can't reach
When the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) asked Iran to explain what was happening deep underneath Pickaxe mountain, the reply was short and sharp: 'It's none of your business.' Rafael Grossi's question is more urgent now, after Iran's key enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz were targeted by American B-2 stealth jets armed with 30,000lb bunker-busting bombs in an attack Donald Trump claimed 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear programme. Before the strike, 16 lorries were seen queuing up outside Fordow, and an expert on Iran's nuclear programme told The Telegraph the regime had moved much of its highly enriched uranium to a secret location before the US was able to bomb its facilities. Tehran had hidden sites housing 'hundreds if not thousands' of advanced centrifuges capable of producing weapons-grade uranium needed for a nuclear bomb, said Sima Shine, who has worked within the Israeli military establishment for 30 years. Pickaxe mountain may be the perfect hiding place. The sprawling site at Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā is 90 miles south of Fordow, and only minutes away from the Natanz nuclear facility in central Isfahan province. The installation, which is still under construction, has been reinforced and quietly expanded in the past four years. 'Since it is obvious it is in a place where numerous and important activities related to the programme are taking place, we're asking them, 'What is this for?' And they are telling us, 'It's none of your business,'' Mr Grossi said in April. He said it 'cannot be excluded' that the tunnels would store undeclared material.
The National
4 days ago
- Politics
- The National
Where is Iran's uranium and can Tehran still build a bomb?
Iran will not be able to make a nuclear bomb 'for years' even if it has managed to hide enriched uranium from airstrikes, experts have told The National. They have concluded that the damage inflicted by US bombers to the Fordow plant, where centrifuges could enrich uranium to a high enough purity for a bomb, will have severely dented its capabilities. However, following reports that Iran has managed to smuggle all 400kg of its 60 per cent enriched uranium out of Fordow, there are fears that this would allow the regime to resurrect its nuclear programme once the bombing stops. The stakes in what happens next to the residual programme could not be higher. Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned that 'strikes cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has acquired over several decades, nor any regime ambition to deploy that knowledge to build a nuclear weapon'. In a statement to parliament he added that 'once you have the ability to enrich uranium to 60 per cent that knowledge is not lost, it is the step to an advanced weapon'. He also called for Tehran to 'dial this thing down and negotiate' as the alternative was 'even more destructive and far-reaching conflict, which could have unpredictable consequences'. Years out Clearing some hurdles to weaponisation will have become harder. Without getting the uranium to 95 per cent enrichment it is impossible to create a chain reaction and a nuclear explosion, said nuclear weapons specialist Hamish de Bretton Gordon. 'Turning that enriched uranium into weaponised uranium at 95 per cent would require a facility with centrifuges and all the other paraphernalia,' he said. 'These are very complex pieces of equipment and you need the knowledge to make them work. My assessment is that Iran doesn't have the capacity to make a nuclear device and is unlikely to do so for some considerable time, for years.' IAEA nuclear inspectors have suggested that Iran would 'adopt special measures' to protect its programme in the event of war and that the regime had already notified them of a new enrichment site which they were due to inspect before the Israeli attack began. But Rafael Grossi, IAEA director general, also suggested that the American bombing had now devastated the programme. 'Given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred,' he said. Assassination effects Intelligence reports suggest that Iran was probably on the cusp of being able to enrich uranium to 95 per cent within three days using the Fordow centrifuges, but with these now destroyed that will be difficult to restore. Israeli intelligence is reported to know that Iran has some highly enriched uranium secretly hidden, probably in Isfahan, which was one reason for their bombing campaign. Iran will also need to rebuild new facilities which, while this could take months it will be compromised by many of the parts needing to be imported with intelligence agencies on high alert to prevent it acquiring them again. Furthermore, Iran has suffered the deaths of up to 17 nuclear scientists along with a lot of research papers and laboratories. While it will have some corporate knowledge left over this will be difficult to rebuild. Labs gone The main problem for Iran is that it needs to turn enriched uranium hexafluoride back into solid metal which requires the laboratories and factories that have now been extensively destroyed. Furthermore, Israeli and US intelligence appears to have deeply penetrated the regime making it highly likely that Iran's enemies will know or find out where the uranium has been moved, if that has happened. Mr de Bretton Gordon, a former British army colonel, admitted that 'you can hide uranium fairly easily as it doesn't emit really strong, powerful radiation' and if it was bombed it would cause very little radiation fallout. But Dr Marion Messmer, nuclear expert at Chatham House think tank, argued that Fordow and other enrichment sites hit are unlikely to be the only ones in Iran. She also argued that the attacks would 'embolden Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weapons as they will likely be seen now as the only security guarantee'. Darya Dolzikova, a nuclear specialist at the Rusi think tank, added that the physical elimination of the programme's infrastructure and assassinations 'will not be sufficient to destroy the latent knowledge that exists in the country'. Dirty bombs At best Iran could rapidly produce an 'improvised nuclear device' using the 60 per cent enriched uranium but this would amount to no more than a 'dirty bomb' that would simply spread radiation around an area without particularly deadly effect. Dr Messner argued that while a dirty bomb only required a conventional payload and some radioactive material this would go against Iran's goal of a strategic nuclear arsenal. 'Using some of its limited stockpile for a dirty bomb would be a waste,' she said. 'And the consequences of using a dirty bomb against Israel would also likely be very severe. A dirty bomb is not a deterrence capability.'
Forbes
5 days ago
- Politics
- Forbes
Could Iran Really Make A Nuclear Weapon?
A picture taken on August 20, 2010 shows an Iranian flag fluttering at an undisclosed location in ... More the Islamic republic next to a surface-to-surface Qiam-1 (Rising) missile which was test fired a day before Iran was due to launch its Russian-built first nuclear power plant. Iranian Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the missile was entirely designed and built domestically and powered by liquid fuel. AFP PHOTO/VAHID REZA ALAEI (Photo by Vahidreza ALAEI / AFP) (Photo by VAHIDREZA ALAEI/AFP via Getty Images) Whether Iran has actively sought a nuclear weapon remains unanswered, but there is no doubt it pushed the limits of its enrichment program too far, and not by a little. Information that proves this comes from several sources, most importantly the International Atomic Energy Agency, watchdog for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The IAEA is the only external body with the authority to conduct actual on-site inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities while it remains a member of the NPT. Agency teams continued such visits as recently as one week before Israeli attacks began. Experts consider it a point of key importance that the Iranian regime, despite decades of evasion and deception regarding IAEA requests for information, hasn't withdrawn from the NPT. The only country to have ever done so is North Korea, which ended its membership in 2003 and conducted its first nuclear test three years later. Uranium Enrichment Levels And What They Mean Uranium enrichment involves increasing the percentage of uranium-235, the fissile isotope able to create a nuclear chain reaction. U-235 comprises only a very minor portion, 0.7%, of natural uranium, with the rest being U-238. Because these two isotopes have nearly identical chemical behavior, they have to be separated mechanically. This is done by first converting uranium into a gas (uranium hexafluoride, UF6), then feeding it into rapidly spinning centrifuges that force the heavier U-238 toward the outside, leaving U-235 nearer the center. Because the difference in weight is extremely small, the process isn't quick. Depending on centrifuge technology, it can take six months to a year to achieve 5% enrichment, typical for low-enriched fuel in nuclear power reactors. TEHRAN, IRAN - APRIL 8: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (C) visits the Natanz uranium ... More enrichment facilities April 8, 2008 200 miles (322 km) south of the Tehran, Iran. Ahmadinejad announced on Iranian state television during the visit that Iran has begun the installation of some 6,000 new centrifuges, adding to to the 3,000 centrifuges already at the facility. (Photo by the Office of the Presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran via Getty Images) Several more months are needed to reach 20%, the lower threshold to highly enriched uranium. This is often used by research reactors that produce medical isotopes and industrial materials. A few such reactors for highly specialized uses can utilize 60%, which requires an additional month to achieve. At this point, mere weeks or even days are needed to reach 90%, the lower limit of weapons grade. The 90% figure is no magic number but more a metric of high explosive probability and efficiency. To understand this, it helps to know that the Hiroshima weapon had an enrichment level as low as 80%, with only 1.4% of the fuel having detonated. Admittedly, it would seem absurd to call this bomb, which destroyed 90% of the city and killed many tens of thousands of people, 'inefficient.' But at today's enrichment levels (93%-95%), the weapon would have been immensely more destructive. The Threat of Iran's Enrichment Capability Latest data from the IAEA leaves little doubt about the potential threat Iran represents. This has built up especially since the first Trump Administration withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed under President Barack Obama in 2015. With U.S. departure from the deal, the Iranians began to cut back on cooperating with IAEA inspectors. In 2021, Iran revealed its plan for taking enrichment from 20% to 60%, and soon afterward ceased to provide any further details on its fuel-making program. In early 2023, the IAEA discovered particles enriched to as high as 83.7% at its Fordow Plant, built inside a mountain some 300 ft underground and recently targeted by U.S. bombers. Then, in late 2024, inspectors concluded the Iranians had begun rapidly increasing its stockpile of 60% uranium. Though none of Iran's research reactors can use 60%, the IAEA estimated that more than 400 kg had been produced by May 2025, a strikingly large amount. The most logical conclusion was also the most unwelcome. As expressed in an analysis by the non-partisan Institute for Science and International Security, there could be no civilian use for so much material, not even as bargaining leverage in negotiations. 'One has to conclude,' the ISIS states, that the intention of the Iranians 'is to be prepared to produce large quantities of WGU [weapons grade uranium] as quickly as possible.' How Quickly Could Iran Have Conceivably Made A Bomb? Experts at ISIS believe Iran could convert its 60% stock into roughly 230 kg of weapons grade fuel in as little as 3 weeks. This would be enough for 9 nuclear weapons and would take place at Fordow. FORDOW UNDERGROUND COMPLEX, IRAN — JUNE 20, 2025: 01 Maxar Satellite Imagery shows a clear overview ... More of the Fordow underground fuel enrichment facility prior to the most recent airstrikes. The undisturbed terrain and tunnel entrances are seen before any visible impact damage occurred. Please use: Satellite image (c) 2025 Maxar Technologies. A more sobering figure is that 25 kg, sufficient for a single weapon, could be produced in as little as 2-3 days, were operations not halted by wartime attacks. Whether this may have been done is unknown. Satellite imagery strongly suggests the 60% material was removed from Fordow before or shortly after Israeli attacks began. Fuel alone, however, does not make a weapon. Have the Iranians pursued actual weapon design, even acquiring materials for a physical bomb? Intelligence reports have suggested this was indeed a goal in the early 2000s but likely ended in 2003. That was when the IAEA uncovered clear evidence of a clandestine nuclear program that flatly violated its obligations under the NPT. Whether Tehran has since tried to restart the effort to physically assemble a nuclear device remains a source of debate. The IAEA appears to believe this is not the case. At the same time, they suggest that the stock of 60% enriched uranium has been disseminated to a number of sites for protection. It is obvious that Iran has taken its enrichment levels far beyond any conceivable peaceful use, including as leverage in any future nuclear negotiation. Whether its capabilities have been greatly reduced by U.S. and Israeli attacks, they are not likely to have been destroyed. It has the know-how to rebuild advanced centrifuges and has almost certainly preserved significant portions of its most highly enriched fuel. The saga of uncertainty about Iran and the bomb may have entered a new stage but is far from over.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
IAEA: Significant Damage Expected at Iran's Fordow Site
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi says "very significant damage is expected to have occurred" at Fordow, Iran's main uranium enrichment site. "Craters are now visible," the head of the United Nations atomic watchdog said in Vienna on Monday. (Source: IAEA via Associated Press) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Irish Times
5 days ago
- Politics
- Irish Times
Did Iran move its uranium? Opinions split on fate of 400kg stockpile
The fate of Iran 's nuclear programme, and attempts by the US and Israel to destroy it, could hang on the Islamic republic's more than 400kg of uranium enriched to levels just short of weapons-grade. After US stealth bombers dropped huge 30,000lb bunker-buster bombs on Iran's main nuclear sites, Donald Trump claimed the 'key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated'. There is little doubt that the sites Tehran has been using to produce highly enriched uranium – Natanz and Fordow – have suffered severe damage. A third site in Isfahan, used in the fuel cycle but also for storage, was hit by Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from an American submarine. But as the Trump administration conducts its damage assessment, the critical question will be whether Iran's programme has been destroyed, or simply pushed into smaller, secret facilities that are harder to find. READ MORE The answer depends significantly on what has happened to Iran's 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity – approaching the 90 per cent purity required for weapons. 'It comes down to the material and where it is,' said Richard Nephew, a former senior US official who worked on Iran in the Obama and Biden administrations. 'On the basis of what we've seen at this point, we don't know where the material is. We don't have any real confidence that we've got the ability to get it any time soon.' 'I think you would be foolish,' he added, 'if you said that the programme was delayed by anything more than a few months.' [ Live updates: Trump hints at Iran regime change after US attacks on nuclear sites Opens in new window ] Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, said 'no one will know for sure for days' whether Iran attempted or was able to move highly enriched uranium. 'I doubt they moved it, because you really can't move anything right now,' he told CBS. 'The minute a truck starts driving somewhere, the Israelis have seen it, and they've targeted it and taken it out.' But an Iranian regime insider said it would have been 'very naive to keep our enriched uranium in those sites', adding: 'The enriched uranium is untouched now.' He added that Iran – which has always insisted its programme is for peaceful, civilian purposes – would not seek to weaponise its programme. As hostilities with Israel have intensified, other Iranian officials have hinted that Tehran could look to alter its nuclear doctrine. Analysts have warned Tehran could rush to develop a bomb using clandestine facilities if it becomes desperate and feels the need to restore its deterrent. Ali Shamkhani, senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said the country's nuclear abilities remained steadfast. 'Even if nuclear sites are destroyed, [the] game isn't over,' he wrote on X. 'Enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, political will remain,' said Shamkhani, who was reported to have been wounded in Israel's first round of strikes more than a week ago. The highly enriched uranium had been held at Natanz, in central Iran; Fordow, the main enrichment facility dug deep into a mountain near the holy city of Qom; and in tunnels at the Isfahan site, Nephew said. Once cooled, it is stored in powder form in large cylinders similar to a water heater. A protest following US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran on Sunday. Photograph: Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times The stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – part of an overall stockpile of more than 8,400kg, the majority of it low-level purity – meant Tehran had the capacity to produce sufficient fissile material required for several nuclear bombs within days if it chose. But the actual weaponisation process would be expected to take months or a year, experts said. The risk was always that after Israel launched its bombing campaign on the pretext of destroying Tehran's nuclear programme, Iran would secretly take the stockpile to hidden locations, where advanced centrifuges had been covertly set up. Nephew said the 'unknowns here are killing us a little bit'. 'If they've got a uranium conversion line set up ... and if they were able to enrich up to 90 per cent at Fordow before it was attacked, and they had eight or nine days, that's potentially enough for two bombs' worth of 90 per cent,' he said. India, Pakistan and North Korea all successfully developed covert nuclear weapons programmes despite onerous surveillance and restrictions from the US. [ US-Iran: What comes next after Donald Trump's risky foreign policy move? Opens in new window ] Sima Shine, a former Iran specialist at Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, said she was convinced Iran had moved enriched material. 'They have enough enriched uranium somewhere, and they took some advanced centrifuges somewhere, in order to enable them to some day go to a nuclear device,' Shine said. 'The programme is not destroyed completely, no matter what the Americans say.' One Israeli official said that if Tehran and Washington resumed talks on allowing Iran to have a peaceful nuclear energy programme, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu might insist Tehran hand over any highly enriched uranium to be transported and stored outside the country. A second official acknowledged that Iran could have spirited away at least some of its highly enriched stockpile. But the officials added that after Israel last week assassinated at least 11 Iranian nuclear scientists, the regime would struggle to create an 'efficient, miniaturised nuclear weapon'. The International Atomic Energy Agency has inspectors in the republic who frequently visit Fordow, Natanz and other declared facilities. But Israel's bombing campaign put a halt to those inspections. Even before the strikes, the UN nuclear watchdog lacked oversight over all of the thousands of advanced centrifuges Iran developed after Trump in his first term pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal that severely restricted Tehran's activity. Iran's co-operation with the IAEA had also severely deteriorated in recent years, impeding the agency's ability to conduct inspections to the level agreed in the 2015 agreement. After Iran was censured in an IAEA resolution, days before Israel launched its attack, Iran also revealed that it had built a previously undeclared enrichment facility – the country's third. Israel targeted the Natanz facility on the first day of its strikes and has hit it again, causing damage to its overground and underground plants, the IAEA said last week. Israel also hit the Isfahan site twice. But it lacked the military capacity to cause significant damage to Fordow and waited for the US's intervention. 'It's certainly the end of the Iranian nuclear programme as we knew it,' said Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group. 'If the programme survives, it'll either become a clandestine weapons programme or, in case of a deal, a neutered civilian programme without access to nuclear fuel cycle technology.' – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
