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BOJ finds US tariff hit to exports limited for now
BOJ finds US tariff hit to exports limited for now

Reuters

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Reuters

BOJ finds US tariff hit to exports limited for now

TOKYO, July 10 (Reuters) - The impact on Japan's output and exports from U.S. tariffs is limited for the time being but many companies are worried about the risk of tariffs weakening global demand, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday. Some areas in Japan have seen companies delay or review capital expenditure plans, whereas others have seen companies increase spending to streamline operations and cope with labour shortages, showed a summary of the BOJ's quarterly meeting of regional branch managers. "At present, the impact was limited overall," the bank said about how higher U.S. tariffs were affecting exports and factory output across Japan. "As for the outlook, many regions saw companies voice concern about slumping demand from rising U.S. sales prices and a slowdown in the global economy," the bank said. The findings, from surveys conducted by regional branch managers, highlight how companies are not able to fully grasp the potential impact of higher U.S. tariffs due to the mutability of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy. They do not reflect Trump's announcement on Monday to raise tariffs on Japanese goods to 25% from 10% unless a trade deal is struck by August 1, a BOJ official told reporters. In a separate report, the BOJ said the economies of all nine regions were recovering moderately, maintaining its assessment from three months earlier. The summary and report will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinise at its next policy meeting on July 30-31, when the board will issue fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts. Companies' outlook on wages and prices were mixed. Some firms hinted at cutting bonuses if U.S. tariffs hurt profit, whereas others saw the need to keep hiking wages to retain talent, the summary showed. While many firms expected to keep hiking prices to pass on rising input and labour costs, some held back price increases as consumers became more thrifty, the summary showed. The BOJ ended a decade-long stimulus programme last year and in January raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% on the view that inflation was on the cusp of durably meeting its 2% target. It cut its growth forecasts at its previous meeting on May 1 and signalled a pause in rate hikes after Trump raised the prospect of higher tariffs. The central bank has said wages must keep rising and help achieve sustained inflation before it can resume rate hikes.

China Gets Boost In Retail Sales As Export Goods Stay Home, While Tariffs Hit Factory Output
China Gets Boost In Retail Sales As Export Goods Stay Home, While Tariffs Hit Factory Output

Al Arabiya

time16-06-2025

  • Business
  • Al Arabiya

China Gets Boost In Retail Sales As Export Goods Stay Home, While Tariffs Hit Factory Output

China's economy managed a mixed economic performance in May as retail sales jumped while factory output slowed in the face of higher US tariffs. Data released Monday showed retail sales rose 6.4 percent from a year earlier, helped partly by promotions of products stranded as shipments were suspended due to higher tariffs. A major online shopping festival also helped entice consumers to spend more. The June 18 shopping extravaganza started last month with online sellers offering discounts on many products. But factory output and exports still took a hit from the tariffs even though many of the increases in import duties have been delayed as Beijing and Washington negotiate a trade deal. Manufacturing output rose 5.8 percent in May year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said, compared with 6.1 percent in April and 7.7 percent in March. Factory activity surged earlier in the year but has slowed as US President Donald Trump's tariffs took effect. China earlier reported its exports to the United States fell 35 percent in May from a year earlier while total exports rose 4.8 percent in May from a year earlier, much lower than economists' forecasts and down sharply from an 8.1 percent jump in April. Overall, economists said the world's second-largest economy had weathered the threat of hikes in tariffs relatively well. But signs of weakness persist as a slump in the property market has yet to reverse. Deflation remains an issue, with consumer prices slipping 0.1 percent in May from a year earlier and 0.2 percent from the month before. Investment in real estate fell 10.7 percent in January–May compared to a year earlier, with housing prices in most cities falling slightly, the report showed. Spending on factory equipment and other fixed assets rose at a relatively slow 3.7 percent annual pace, it said. Apart from the 618 online shopping festival timed to celebrate the June 18, 1998, founding of e-commerce giant China's program to subsidize trade-ins of household appliances, autos, and other goods helped boost retail sales. But while retail sales rose 5 percent in January–May from a year earlier, consumers remain wary given weakness in the property sector, a vital repository of wealth for most families, Lynn Song of ING Economics said in a report. 'May's data was encouraging,' she said. 'However, a more sustainable consumption recovery will likely require a turnaround of consumer confidence, which remains much closer to historical lows than historical averages.' The threat of higher tariffs that could further disrupt trade between the two biggest economies remains, with an Aug. 10 deadline for reaching an agreement following talks last week in London. 'With tariffs set to stay elevated and exporters facing broader constraints, export growth is likely to slow further by year-end,' Zichun Huang of Capital Economics wrote in a commentary.

China's factories slow, consumers unexpectedly perk up
China's factories slow, consumers unexpectedly perk up

Yahoo

time16-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

China's factories slow, consumers unexpectedly perk up

By Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang BEIJING (Reuters) -China's factory output growth hit a six-month low in May, while retail sales picked up steam, offering temporary relief for the world's second-largest economy amid a fragile truce in its trade war with the United States. The mixed data comes as China's economy strains under U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught and chronic weakness in the property sector, with entrenched home price declines showing no signs of reversing. Industrial output grew 5.8% from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday, slowing from 6.1% in April and missing expectations for a 5.9% rise in a Reuters poll of analysts. It was the slowest growth since November last year. However, retail sales rose 6.4%, much quicker than a 5.1% increase in April and forecasts for a 5.0% expansion, marking the fastest growth since December 2023. All up, the numbers failed to convince investors or analysts that anaemic growth would pick up anytime soon with Chinese blue chips erasing very brief gains on Monday. "The U.S.-China trade truce was not enough to prevent a broader loss of economic momentum last month," Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said. "With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal support waning and structural headwinds persisting, growth is likely to slow further this year." Data released earlier this month showed China's total exports expanded 4.8% in May, but outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged 34.5%, the sharpest drop since February 2020. The Asian giant's deflationary pressures also deepened last month. Supporting retail sales were strong Labour Day holiday spending and a consumer goods trade-in programme that was heavily subsidised by the government. An extended "618" shopping festival, one of China's largest online retail events by sales, started earlier than usual this year, helping lift consumption. CAUTION AHEAD Overhanging the activity indicators were persistent headwinds in China's housing sector, with new home prices extending two years of stagnation. "We find a general pattern that wherever there is stimulus, it works, like the home appliance sales; but wherever there is no stimulus, like the property development, it struggles," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "There are reasons for more caution going forward, especially regarding private consumption which could see a 'triple whammy' of tightening dining curbs on officials, the end of a front-loaded 618 shopping festival and the suspension of government consumer subsidies." Fixed asset investment expanded 3.7% in the first five months of this year from the same period a year earlier, compared with expectations for a 3.9% rise. It grew 4.0% in the January to April period. Trump last week said a trade deal that restored a fragile truce in the U.S.-China trade war was done, a day after negotiators from Washington and Beijing agreed on a framework covering tariff rates. That means the U.S. will charge Chinese exports a total of 55% tariffs, he said. A White House official said the 55% would include pre-existing 25% levies on imports from China that were put in place during Trump's first term. For now, trade woes have not been reflected in employment figures with the urban survey-based jobless rate nudging down to 5.0% in May, from 5.1% previously. Beijing last month rolled out a package of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a major liquidity injection, aimed at shielding the economy from the hit from U.S. tariffs. However, analysts continued to flag challenges for China in hitting its growth target of roughly 5% this year and warned imminent stimulus was unlikely. ($1 = 7.1846 Chinese yuan) (Additional reporting by Ethan Wang; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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