Latest news with #fiscalbill
Yahoo
12-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's big beautiful bill to boost economy, but tariffs pack bigger punch: MS
President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill' has been hailed as the fiscal shot in the arm that could restore U.S. economic exceptionalism. But as the ink dries on this transformative legislation, Morgan Stanley is sounding a note of caution: the looming August 1 tariffs, along with a tightening immigration stance, threaten to sap much of the bill's intended fiscal boost. While the fiscal bill, expected may improve the growth prospects of the U.S. economy in the short run, it "will not be sufficient to offset the direct and indirect effects of tariffs and immigration controls,' Morgan Stanley economists said in a recent note. The combined effects of the administration's policies, the analysts add, will yield 'a slow-growth, firm-inflation economy." As well as the hit from potential reciprocal tariffs, the economists also downplay the muscle that will added to the economy from the bill."Those looking for a significant fiscal impulse to growth from the OBBB [big beautiful bill] are likely to be disappointed," Morgan Stanley economics said in a recent note. "We add only 0.2pp to our growth projection in 2026," they added. Earlier in the year, the threat of 'Liberation Day' tariffs sent jitters through financial markets, but a temporary reprieve lowered the effective tariff rate to a more 'digestible' 13% to 14%, the economists said. Now, with reciprocal tariffs set to be reinstated against about 20 trading partners—including South Korea and Japan—and a 50% tariff slapped on copper, the effective rate is poised to jump to 17% to 18% if the measures take effect as planned. on Aug. 1. The weeks until the looming August deadline provide 'potential off ramps," but the risk is clear: higher tariffs could keep inflation elevated well into 2026, and may not show up in the data until late 2025—just as the impulse from the first round of tariffs begins to fade. The economists warn that 'the higher tariffs go, the more the US risks adverse outcomes for activity and employment." The crackdown on immigration, meanwhile, paired with protectionist trade policies, is flagged as a structural risk to growth as the hit to the labor market likely dampens productivity and innovation, compounding the drag from tariffs. As the second half of 2025 unfolds, markets are bracing for volatility. The hope is that fiscal stimulus will provide a cushion, but the real test will be whether the private sector can overcome the headwinds from trade and labor restrictions. Related articles Trump's big beautiful bill to boost economy, but tariffs pack bigger punch: MS Canada hits pause on tariff hike as Trump extends trade deadline - Politico 'Beautiful Bill' to provide slight GDP boost through 2027, Morgan Stanley says Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
News.com.au
04-07-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Lunch Wrap: ASX snuggles up to Wall Street high as ‘big beautiful bill' passes
Tech and retailers jump this morning Trump teases tariff letters as "big beautiful bill" passes Cleanaway and Santos ink deals; Magellan shrugs off outflows It's lunchtime in the east and the local market is tucking into a modest rally. The benchmark ASX 200 is 0.15% stronger, eyeing that mid-week record. Local traders took their cue from an abbreviated but exuberant session on Wall Street overnight, where traders clocked off at 1 pm for the Fourth of July holiday. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow still managed to bang out fresh records. A 'big, beautiful' US$3.4 trillion fiscal bill has now slid through the House. The US Senate passed it 51–50 (VP Vance casting the tieâ€'breaker), the House followed 218–214 last night, and Trump will sign it later tonight. Trump also hinted at unilateral 'reciprocal' tariffs if trading partners don't play nice by July 9. He threatened to start firing off letters, 'maybe 10 a day', spelling out who's going to pay what to do business with the US. Elsewhere in the commodities space, iron ore has clambered back over US$96/t in Singapore as Beijing vows to stamp out 'disorderly' low-price steel competition. Gold eased nearly 1% after a strong US jobs data overnight torpedoed immediate Fed-cut dreams, though bullion's still up 25% year-to-date. Back home on the ASX, the baton has been passed from miners to tech this morning. Local software names shadowed the Nasdaq. Appen (ASX:APX) was up 8%, Life360 (ASX:360) by 3%. RBA rate-cut rumours for next week put a spring in shoppers' steps too. Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) and Myer (ASX:MYR) jumped 1% each. In the large caps news, Cleanaway (ASX:CWY) spiked 2% after the ACCC gave the nod to its $377m swoop on Contract Resources. Regulator Philip Williams said he didn't see competition issues in industrial services. Engineering contractor Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) nudged 1.5% higher after locking in over $100 million worth of work with Technip Energies. And, Santos (ASX:STO) inked a mid-term deal with QatarEnergy Trading for roughly half a million tonnes of LNG a year over two years. STO shares were down 0.3%. ASX SMALL CAP WINNERS Here are the best performing ASX small cap stocks for July 4 : Security Description Last % Volume MktCap GMN Gold Mountain Ltd 0.002 100% 105,995,646 $5,619,759 GLL Galilee Energy Ltd 0.008 60% 1,794,993 $3,535,964 DY6 Dy6Metalsltd 0.210 35% 2,190,750 $11,541,688 AOA Ausmon Resorces 0.002 33% 3,402,438 $1,966,820 SFG Seafarms Group Ltd 0.002 33% 456,473 $7,254,899 WMG Western Mines 0.250 25% 266,072 $19,357,669 MSG Mcs Services Limited 0.005 25% 250,001 $792,399 TEM Tempest Minerals 0.005 25% 100,589 $4,407,180 SLH Silk Logistics 2.105 22% 590,694 $140,261,869 OKJ Oakajee Corp Ltd 0.040 21% 12,200 $3,017,719 KPO Kalina Power Limited 0.006 20% 2,541,951 $14,664,978 AUG Augustus Minerals 0.032 19% 551,238 $4,588,554 CR1 Constellation Res 0.130 18% 2,800 $6,934,315 ICE Icetana Limited 0.087 18% 1,021,675 $39,355,118 CVR Cavalierresources 0.235 18% 175,056 $11,568,443 ATX Amplia Therapeutics 0.275 17% 4,960,449 $91,168,877 3DP Pointerra Limited 0.062 17% 1,670,193 $42,669,070 ENL Enlitic Inc. 0.035 17% 1,715,848 $24,768,486 CAV Carnavale Resources 0.004 17% 496,875 $12,270,655 MGU Magnum Mining & Exp 0.007 17% 1,000,000 $13,908,223 PUA Peak Minerals Ltd 0.050 16% 27,063,376 $120,714,815 FCL Fineos Corp Hold PLC 2.730 16% 215,651 $795,474,213 5GG Pentanet 0.030 15% 821,149 $11,262,463 MAG Magmatic Resrce Ltd 0.060 15% 2,399,751 $22,997,037 The ACCC said it won't oppose DP World Australia's proposed takeover of Silk Logistics Holdings (ASX:SLH), clearing a key hurdle for the deal. After digging into the details, the watchdog found the merger is unlikely to hurt competition, even if DP World gains control of Silk's trucking and warehousing arm. So, for now, it's game on, with final approvals still needed from FIRB, shareholders and the court. Medical AI company Enlitic (ASX:ENL) said it's now met the financial requirements under its MOU with GE HealthCare, after completing a $10 million capital raise in June. It has signed an Advanced Payment Agreement, unlocking a US$2 million upfront payment from GE and clearing the way for their strategic collaboration to move forward. Enlitic's US arm Laitek is expected to deliver up to $46 million in data migration work over the next five years. Mining-software outfit RPM Global (ASX:RUL) said a busy second half lifted its FY25 total contracted value to $100.8m, up 31%, with subscription licences surging. RUL has booked $69.1m in ARR and a record $200m non-cancellable backlog, 24 % higher than a year ago. ASX SMALL CAP LOSERS Here are the worst performing ASX small cap stocks for July 4 : Code Name Price % Change Volume Market Cap HLX Helix Resources 0.001 -50% 58,000 $6,728,387 AXP AXP Energy Ltd 0.001 -33% 109,654 $10,027,021 PRX Prodigy Gold NL 0.002 -33% 740,000 $9,525,167 IPB IPB Petroleum Ltd 0.005 -29% 1,029,310 $4,944,821 EEL Enrg Elements Ltd 0.002 -25% 4,206,979 $6,507,557 RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 0.002 -25% 152,677 $1,553,413 LKO Lakes Blue Energy 0.750 -25% 682,656 $58,770,705 HPC Thehydration 0.011 -21% 784,289 $5,408,213 DDT DataDot Technology 0.004 -20% 350,001 $6,054,764 FHS Freehill Mining Ltd. 0.004 -20% 3,754,989 $17,069,268 AR9 Archtis Limited 0.215 -19% 1,971,854 $76,653,102 NHE Nobleheliumlimited 0.029 -17% 665,136 $20,983,375 CDE Codeifai Limited 0.044 -17% 7,147,484 $23,475,738 RPG Raptis Group Limited 0.075 -17% 45,742 $31,561,637 ALM Alma Metals Ltd 0.005 -17% 2,033,841 $11,104,423 ALY Alchemy Resource Ltd 0.005 -17% 77,904 $7,068,458 FBR FBR Ltd 0.005 -17% 2,361,139 $34,136,713 AKN Auking Mining Ltd 0.006 -14% 111,904 $4,023,451 EMT Emetals Limited 0.003 -14% 213,214 $2,975,000 OVT Ovanti Limited 0.006 -14% 39,046,423 $29,850,265 RC1 Redcastle Resources 0.007 -13% 910,000 $5,948,535 MDR Medadvisor Limited 0.057 -12% 2,261,562 $40,611,029 CGR Cgnresourceslimited 0.070 -11% 115,219 $7,171,477 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT Drilling at Nimy Resources' (ASX:NIM) Mons project in WA has extended known gallium mineralisation to a 450m by 300m area after returning further high-grade intersections. Canaccord Genuity has upgraded its price target for Ausgold (ASX:AUC) to $1.65 following a 'compelling' DFS for its Katanning gold project.
Wall Street Journal
30-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Global Investors Suddenly Have a New Concern: A U.S. 'Revenge Tax'
President Trump speaks on Wednesday at the White House. An obscure part of his fiscal bill is worrying foreign investors. (Evan Vucci/Associated Press)
Wall Street Journal
20-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Breaking Down What's in the GOP Tax Bill
Republicans are trying to get a fiscal bill through the House this week. It's a complex piece of legislation that includes tax cuts, spending increases, spending reductions and some tax hikes. In total, it would increase budget deficits by nearly $3 trillion over a are some key proposals as the bill now stands that both reduce and add to overall spending and taxes. Unless Congress acts, marginal income-tax rates will increase in 2026. The bill continues the current rate structure, with a top rate of 37%. Tax bracket thresholds would get extended, too, with an extra adjustment in 2026 that would increase take-home pay.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
SALT, Tips and Auto Loans: A Guide to the House GOP Tax Bill
(Bloomberg) -- House Republicans' release of the tax provisions in their massive fiscal bill provides a crucial initial reading of what party leaders think could pass, culminating weeks of intense negotiations among fractious GOP lawmakers. A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors As Trump Reshapes Housing Policy, Renters Face Rollback of Rights What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? NYC Warns of 17% Drop in Foreign Tourists Due to Trump Policies LA Mayor Credits Trump on Fire Aid, Stays Wary on Immigration But the bill still may change as leaders strike more deals to secure passage in the House. And Senate Republicans are likely to follow their own path, requiring more compromises. Business lobbyists notched many of the top tax breaks they were seeking, while avoiding levy increases that were instead targeted at renewable energy projects, immigrants, foundations and colleges. The bill is officially scored as losing $3.7 trillion in revenue, within the $4.5 trillion limit lawmakers set for themselves. Here's a rundown of the tax bill's main provisions impacting individuals and businesses: No Millionaire Tax House Republicans rejected the so-called 'millionaire tax' floated by President Donald Trump, which would have set a higher income tax rate for individuals making more than $2.5 million in a year. The draft would permanently set the top tax rate for individuals at 37%, extending the rate set by President Donald Trump's 2017 tax bill. Without new legislation, the top rate is set to expire and would revert back to 39.6%. $30,000 SALT Limit The limit on state and local tax deductions would rise to $30,000 – a slight increase from the existing SALT cap, but likely not enough to appease Republicans from high-tax states like California and New York. The proposed SALT cap would be $30,000 for individual filers or married couples filing joint returns but $15,000 for married individuals filing separate returns. The bill also would place a new income test on eligibility for the tax deduction, phasing it out for individuals earning more than $200,000, or married couples earning more than $400,000. At least five Republican lawmakers rejected the new limit in advance as too low. They could stop the entire tax bill if they stick to their guns. Tips, Overtime and Autos Tips and overtime pay would be exempt from income tax through 2028, the end of Trump's second term, fulfilling — at least for four years — a Trump campaign promise. The GOP bill would also make interest on auto loans deductible through 2028, addressing another Trump campaign promise. All three provisions would be retroactive to the beginning of this year. Interest Expensing Private equity and other heavily indebted business sectors won a major fight in the tax bill on interest expensing. The bill adds depreciation and amortization when determining the tax deductibility of a company's debt payments. The maximum amount any company can get in such tax write-offs is calculated as a percentage of earnings. That's why using Ebitda – which is typically bigger than Ebit — in this process would generate heftier tax deductions. Carried Interest The bill does not make any changes to the tax treatment of carried interest after a massive lobbying campaign by affected industries. Trump has pushed Republicans to tax carried interest as ordinary income, raising taxes on private equity, venture capitalists and real estate investors. University Endowment Tax Some private universities would face a dramatic tax increase on investment income generated by their endowments, posing a serious penalty to some of the nation's wealthiest schools. The provision would create a tiered system of taxation so that wealthy colleges and universities that meet a threshold based on the number of students would pay more. Under Trump's 2017 tax law, some colleges with the most well-funded endowments currently pay a 1.4% tax on their net investment income. The levy would rise to as high as 21% on institutions with the largest endowments based on their student population. The provision is a major escalation in Trump's fight with Harvard and other elite colleges and universities, which he has sought to strong-arm into making curriculum and cultural changes that he favors. Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Princeton and MIT would face the maximum 21% tax rate, based on the size of their endowments in 2024, according to data from the NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. Private Foundation Tax Private foundations also would face an escalating tax based on their size: 2.78% for private foundations with assets between $50 million and $250 million, 5% for entities with assets between $250 million and $5 billion; and 10% for foundations with assets of at least $5 billion, such as the Gates Foundation, a longtime target for Republicans. Sports Teams The bill would limit write-offs for professional football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer franchises that claim deductions connected to the team's intangible assets, including copyright, patents or designs. Electric Vehicles A popular consumer tax credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of an electric vehicle would be fully eliminated by the end of 2026, and only manufactures that have sold fewer than 200,000 electric vehicles by the end of this year would would be eligible to receive it in 2026. Tax incentives for the purchase of commercial electric vehicles and used electric vehicles would also be repealed. Renewable Tax Credits Popular production and investment tax credits for clean electricity would be phased out by the end of 2031 and new requirements against using materials from certain foreign nations would be added. Those credits weren't set to expire until the later part of 2032 or until until carbon emissions from the US electricity sector decline to at least 75% below 2022 levels. A tax credit for the production of nuclear energy would also be phased out by 2031. Bonus for Elderly Americans aged 65 and older who don't itemize their taxes would get a $4,000 bonus added to their standard deduction through 2028. That benefit would phase out for individuals making more than $75,000 and couples making more than $150,000. It would be retroactive to the beginning of this year. Trump had campaigned on ending taxes on Social Security benefits but that proposal would have run afoul of a special procedure Republicans are using to push through the tax law changes without any Democratic votes. The higher standard deduction is an alternative way of targeting a benefit to the elderly. Targeting Immigrants Immigrant communities would face a new 5% tax on remittances sent to foreign nations. Many immigrants send a portion of their earnings abroad to support family members in their home countries. Tax credits would be available to reimburse US citizens who send payments abroad. Multinational Corporations Benefit Multinational companies would get an extension of current lower rates on foreign profits, marking a win for corporate America. Factory Incentives The bill does not include Trump's call for a lower corporate tax rate for domestic producers, but instead allows 100% depreciation for any new 'qualified production property,' like a factory, if construction begins during Trump's term — beginning on Jan. 20, 2025, and before Jan. 1, 2029, and becomes operational before 2023. That would be a major incentive for new facilities as Trump wields tariffs to drive production to the US. Child Tax Credit The maximum child tax credit would rise from $2,000 to $2,500 through 2028 and then drop to $2,000 in subsequent years. 'MAGA' Accounts The bill would create new tax-exempt investment accounts to benefit children, dubbed 'MAGA' accounts, referring to his Make America Great Again campaign slogan. The accounts would allow $5,000 in contributions per year and adult children would be able to use the funds for purchasing homes or starting small businesses, in addition to educational expenses. The bill would authorize one-time $1,000 government payments into accounts for children born from 2025 through 2028. Pass-Through Deduction Owners of pass-through businesses would be allowed to exclude 23% of their business income when calculating their taxes, a 3% increase from the current rate. The increase is a win for pass-through firms — partnerships, sole proprietorships and S corporations — which make up the vast majority of businesses in the US. Research and Development The draft would temporarily reinstate a tax deduction for research and development, a top priority for manufacturers and the tech industry. The deduction will last through the end of 2029. --With assistance from Janet Lorin, Ari Natter, Josh Wingrove, Billy House and Derek Wallbank. (Adds details on interest expensing, accounts for children) The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. 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