Latest news with #floodrisk
Daily Mail
2 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
A leafy capital known for scorching summers faces 'mass abandonment' over new deadly flooding threat
Sacramento could lose more than a quarter of its population by 2055 , according to a dire new report. Rising flood risk, soaring insurance costs, and worsening air quality will make the city increasingly unlivable. The California capital — home to roughly 2.4 million people in the broader metro area — is uniquely vulnerable, sitting at the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers. Researchers from First Street Foundation say rising temperatures are melting mountain snow faster, swelling river flows and fueling more frequent heavy rain events. The group's new National Risk Assessment predicts that 28 percent of Sacramento County residents will leave by 2055, a threshold it categorizes as 'mass abandonment.' In addition to the growing flood threat, the report cites skyrocketing home insurance premiums, poor air quality from wildfire smoke, and demographic shifts as key drivers of the exodus. And Sacramento isn't alone. First Street also predicts Fresno could lose half its population by mid-century — the sharpest projected decline of any major U.S. city. As California faces more intense storms and higher river flows, experts say once-livable communities may become untenable for everyday homeowners. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta lowlands will become less and less able to absorb such deluges and dangerous flooding will become more likely, researchers predict. In December a report from the US Chamber of Commerce named Sacramento as at highly exception flood risk in need of mitigation. 'The Army Corps of Engineers and the [Sacramento River] levees have historically done quite a good job of providing protection,' UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain told the San Francisco Chronicle. 'That's probably thanks to good luck and probably thanks to good engineering, but that good luck probably won't hold forever.' Swain warned that mass development of low-lying areas around the city have spread the risk of flooding further. Developing the area has made California's Central Valley, but Sacramento in particular, one of the largest populations in the US highly vulnerable to flood risk. First Street found that risk of flooding was the biggest driver of migration in the US compared to other perils such as poor air quality, wildfires and hurricanes. One of the biggest economic risks of living in an area prone to flooding is that most home insurance providers will not cover flooding. Many insurance providers will not cover flooding in their policies Instead the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides a flood insurance program. First Street analysis found that it will cost 137 percent more to insure homes in Sacramento by 2055. Such costs will drive businesses and residents away to more climate-resilient areas. 'Some people will no doubt be displaced by climate events,' Jesse Keenan, director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at Tulane University, told the Chronicle. 'But many more will be displaced, or at least steered by, the hand of the market,' he explained. Other areas of California are also facing an insurance crisis, with major providers such as State Farm hiking prices after threatening to pull out of the state entirely.
CBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CBC
How building near Edmonton's river could mean more housing — and higher flood risk
Social Sharing A proposal to build several residential buildings up to 17 storeys, in the heart of Edmonton's river valley, stands out in more ways than one. Beyond the height changing sight lines in the area, some Edmontonians also showed concern during community engagement because the structure lies within an identified flood plain. It's a unique water-front proposal in a city that cherishes its river valley as a central green space that is largely undeveloped. It also raises questions about the risks of building so close to the water — and whether those are worthy trade-offs in exchange for more housing. The project, submitted by Dub Architects on behalf of Five Oaks Inc., proposes three buildings that could reach 17 storeys and create up to 490 residential units. The land along 100th Street in the Rossdale neighbourhood includes the historic Rossdale Brewery, which the project plans to restore and integrate. To build that tall, the land needs a rezoning, which will be discussed at a public hearing Monday. If approved, the rezoning would bring in extra environmental requirements, too. A report submitted for the hearing outlines tension between the city's goals for housing and the potential flood risk. "While this land already has zoning that would allow for urban development, increasing the intensity of this development in an ecologically important area where there are potential climate change flood risks is not necessarily aligned with the idea of climate resilience," the report says. How do we assess flood risk? Alberta flood-mapping tools are used to determine what areas are most at risk. In those maps, a flood hazard area is divided into two zones: the floodway and the flood fringe. That tells you what to expect in the event of a one-in-100-year flood, according to Evan Davies, a University of Alberta civil and environmental engineer who specializes in water resources. The floodway will have fast-moving water that can be deep and destructive. The flood fringe will be shallower and less dangerous. City administration worked with the applicant on their original proposal so the development falls outside the floodway. The three buildings are now "almost entirely outside the one-in-100-year flood line," the report says. This means most of the project falls within the one-in-200 year flood zone, leaving a 0.5 per cent chance of flooding in any given year. That's too close for comfort for organizations like the Edmonton River Valley Conservation Coalition, which would like to see the area protected. "It's really risky to think that we understand what a flood could do in this area," said Kristine Kowalchuk, the organization's president. She said other cities that live next to water around the world are, instead, "restoring and rewilding" their flood plains and removing infrastructure. "That's the way that we need to go," Kowalchuk said. What are the rules? The Alberta government has created flood maps to help municipalities determine risk, but it is up to them to set the rules, said Kevin Lee, a press secretary for the Ministry of Municipal Affairs, in an emailed statement to CBC News. "Municipalities have the autonomy and accountability to approve development permits and analyze the risks associated with them within their municipal boundaries," Lee said. Jason Thistlethwaite, an associate professor at the University of Waterloo in Ontario who studies climate risk, said this contrasts to Ontario, where it is prohibited to build in flood plains — which are determined by the historic Hurricane Hazel. "It's more of a black-and-white approach, whereas Alberta has sort of adopted a couple shades of grey," Thistlethwaite said. The lack of provincial regulation in Alberta is a problem, especially because local politicians often face pressure to allow development, said Ryan Ness, director of adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute, a policy research organization. "Without a provincial backstop, there's nothing to keep that pressure from resulting in decisions that allow development where it's really too risky to be safe," Ness said. Thistlethwaite said there's a conflict of interest for municipal governments who want property tax revenue and more housing, but don't typically pay the bill when disaster strikes. "Municipalities, historically, have been able to be bailed out by upper-tier governments for poor development decisions," he said. But the rules around that are changing quickly, Thistlethwaite said, noting the federal government uses the one-in-200-year line to determine regulations around disaster assistance. How do we plan for climate change? But these models are based on current and historical circumstances. The City of Edmonton asked the applicant to make a model with additional risk due to climate change. Dub Architects created a model that accounts for a 10 per cent water discharge increase. It shows two of the buildings almost entirely in the flood fringe. Western Canada is likely to see more extreme weather, said Davies, of the U of A, citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "It's reasonable to expect that we'll get both wetter conditions in some years, and drier conditions in others, than we've seen historically," Davies said. Wetter years could lead to higher river flows, he added, but it's still uncertain what will happen. "That's one of the concerns about climate change, is that there's a lot that's unknown," he said. The city's report clarifies that a development permit will not be given for this project until additional geotechnical, hydrotechnical and environmental studies and mitigation measures are done. CBC News contacted Dub Architects for comment, but did not hear back. Is there a way to build in flood-prone areas responsibly? Thistlethwaite said, in Ontario, a common approach has been to elevate a building by turning the first few floors into above-ground parking. Davies mentioned raising the structure, or at least making sure that all electrical components, furnaces and water boilers are above the flood level.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
BOM issues weather alert as 100kph winds set to cause chaos for millions within hours
Wild weather is rolling in across large parts of the country, bringing a volatile mix of heavy rain, frosty conditions, gale-force winds and rising flood risks. A powerful system brewing off the East Coast is set to make its presence known from Tuesday, with millions in its path. From coastal gusts to drenching downpours and rivers on flood watch, the midweek forecast is looking messy — and for some, potentially dangerous, the Bureau of Meteorology's Senior Forecaster Angus Hines told Yahoo News. Here's what's coming, state by state. A dangerous low-pressure system forming off the east coast is set to unleash widespread heavy rain and strong winds across New South Wales from Tuesday, with the heaviest weather expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. "We're going to see rainfall spread down through the Mid North Coast, the Hunter region, down through Sydney, into the Illawarra," Hines said. Rainfall totals of 50 to 150mm are expected across a large stretch from Port Macquarie to the Victorian border, with some locations tipped to exceed 200mm. "That's enough rain over the course of a couple of days to cause our rivers to start to rise," Hine said. "We've got some rivers on watch already for potential flooding… including up in the Hawkesbury–Nepean Valley and around the Sydney metro area as well as through the Illawarra coast around Wollongong." Flash flooding is also possible, and strong to damaging winds are forecast. "We could be talking 90 or 100 kilometres per hour gusts through our coastal parts, including again across Sydney, the Hunter, Newcastle, and Wollongong. "Those winds are certainly strong enough to cause a bit of damage to branches and trees, maybe blow around a few things in the yard, trampolines, fences, the yard roof panel ... and it could cause some power outages as well. It's a nasty stretch of weather ahead for the east coast of the country." Conditions are expected to ease late Thursday, with clearer skies returning Friday. Eastern Victoria will also be affected as the system tracks south across the border midweek. "Tuesday and Wednesday will be the two biggest days for wet weather across the east of the country," Hines said, noting the system's reach will extend into eastern parts of Victoria. Rainfall totals of 50 to 150mm are expected in affected areas, with higher isolated totals possible. The heaviest rain will likely fall on Wednesday and into Thursday morning, before easing as the system clears offshore later Thursday. After some decent falls around the Gold Coast and North Stradbroke Island overnight Sunday into Monday, southeast Queensland is expected to dry out as the week goes on. "That's actually on the way out today,' Hines said Monday. 'A little bit more rain through this morning, maybe into this afternoon, but by tonight, the bulk of that rainfall has all gone and shifted down into NSW". The rest of the state, particularly northern Queensland, will experience settled and dry conditions for most of the week. South Australia is set for a cool and mostly dry week. Adelaide can expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with temperatures ranging from 13C to 16C. A slight chance of showers is forecast for Friday and Saturday, with possible rainfall between 0 to 9mm. WA escapes the east coast chaos, but two weak winter fronts are set to brush past Perth this week. "The first of which will arrive this afternoon," Hines said. "It's not a particularly powerful weather system — just a sort of brief line of showers… and maybe a push of some stronger and slightly cooler winds." A second front is due late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing another round of showers and a brief wind change. "Neither of them is particularly strong," Hines said. Drivers warned of hidden killer on winter roads after horror crash Aussies left unable to drive as cold, icy weather takes over Urgent weather warning after 'hazardous' detail spotted at edge of dam Tasmania will largely avoid the worst of the east coast system, though rain is forecast for the northeast. "There'll be a little bit of rain across the east and north of the state," Hines said. "That's likely to begin overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning." Rain may fall through much of the day on Wednesday, with 30 to 50mm possible in the northeast. Hobart and the south will see "a few showers" but nothing substantial. "Thursday is when that all clears up," Hines said. The Northern Territory continues to experience dry and breezy conditions. A high-pressure system moving south of the Bight is directing a dry and relatively cool southeasterly flow over the Territory, maintaining moderate to fresh winds until midweek. Darwin can expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with temperatures around 31C and a minimal chance of rain throughout the week. Do you have a story tip? Email: newsroomau@ You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube.
Daily Mail
5 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane weather: Urgent warning to millions as powerful storm barrels towards the east coast
Australians on the New South Wales coast have been warned to brace for intense wind and rain as a low pressure system intensifies over the weekend. An east coast low will sweep over the state's coastal areas from early next week. The system will form and linger on the east coast for at least 24 hours, Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque has said. The east coast low could arrive earlier if a coastal trough deepens off northern NSW on Monday, he said. The forecaster said the system could bring showers and wind gusts which could escalate into heavy and potentially flooding rainfall as well as damaging winds. An alarming map from Weatherzone, which modelled mean sea level pressure and 24-hour rainfall for the low near the Mid North Coast, appeared covered in red. The forecaster said strong winds would cause large waves across the Tasman Sea. Waves could reach as high as 13metres near coastal parts of the Sydney, Central Coast, Hunter and Mid North Coast regions between Tuesday and Thursday. Up to 100-200mm of rain could fall in the 36-48 hours up to Thursday in the Mid North Coast and Hunter, which could extend as far as the South Coast. Rainfall of up to 300mm is possible in some parts of Mid North Coast, Hunter and Central Coast. Sydney Saturday: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning frost in the outer west. The chance of morning fog. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min 9. Max 18. Sunday: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the west. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min 9. Max 19. Monday: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the west. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening. Min 10. Max 17. Melbourne Saturday: The chance of morning fog. Areas of morning frost about the nearby hills. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds. Min 5. Max 15. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min 5. Max 14. Monday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening. Min 6. Max 13. Brisbane Saturday: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds. Min 13. Max 21. Sunday: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the west. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Light winds. Min 13. Max 21. Monday: Cloudy. High chance of showers. Light winds. Min 14. Max 19. Perth Saturday: Sunny. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the day then becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening. Min 7. Max 21. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Min 10. Max 20. Monday: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northerly 20 to 30 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening. Min 12. Max 22. Adelaide Saturday: Mostly sunny. The chance of morning frost about the hills. Light winds. Min 6. Max 15. Sunday: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers. Light winds. Min 6. Max 15. Monday: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog about the hills. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min 7. Max 15. Hobart Saturday: Mostly sunny day. Slight chance of a shower, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening. Min 6. Max 15. Sunday: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon. Min 7. Max 11. Monday: Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost in the north. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min 2. Max 12. Canberra Saturday: Areas of frost and the chance of fog in the morning. Sunny afternoon. Light winds. Min -3. Max 14. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Areas of frost and the chance of fog in the morning. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min -3. Max 13. Monday: Becoming cloudy. Areas of frost and the chance of fog in the morning. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds. Min -4. Max 13. Darwin Saturday: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening. Min 22. Max 31. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the afternoon. Min 21. Max 31. Monday: Sunny. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening. Min 21. Max 31.
Arab News
7 days ago
- Climate
- Arab News
Pakistan issues glacial lake outburst warning for northern areas as temperatures soar
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) this week issued a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) alert for the country's northern areas, citing 'persistent high temperatures' and intense monsoon currents as the main reasons. Pakistan is consistently ranked among the countries most adversely affected by climate change. Climate change has triggered irregular weather patterns in the country, which include unusually heavy rains, droughts and heat waves. In a press release on Wednesday, the NDMA said sustained heat for the past several weeks has accelerated snow and glacier melt in Pakistan's northern regions. 'The added influence of monsoon rains and thunderstorms have now significantly increased hydrometeorological pressure on glacial lakes, raising the risk of sudden GLOF events,' the NDMA said. It said Reshun, Brep, Booni, Sardar Gol, Thalu 1 and 2, Badswat, Hinarchi, Darkut and Hundur valleys are at 'heightened risk' in case of a GLOF events. 'Sudden outbursts from these glacial lakes may trigger flash floods, posing a serious threat to human lives, livestock, and agriculture,' the disaster management authority said. 'Damage to infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and communication networks is likely, and access to remote valleys may be temporarily disrupted.' The NDMA urged residents, tourists and trekkers to avoid traveling near glaciers, glacial lakes and riverbanks in the identified areas. It urged locals to stay informed through official alerts and cooperate with authorities on evacuation instructions where necessary. Floods in 2022, brought by record monsoon rains and glacial melt in northern mountains, killed over 1,700 people and impacted 33 million people out of a population of 220 million. Raging currents swept away homes, vehicles, crops and livestock in damages estimated at $30 billion.
