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Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee falls to four-month low on firmer greenback, state-run banks' dollar bids
MUMBAI, July 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined to its weakest level since mid-March in early trade on Tuesday, as a slump in the euro sharply raised the dollar index, and demand for the greenback from state-run banks added to the pressure. The rupee hit a low of 86.9150 against the U.S. dollar before paring losses to 86.8725, down 0.2% on the day, as of 11:10 a.m. IST. In recent sessions, the Indian currency has also been troubled by persistent outflows from local equities, amid a tepid quarterly earnings season, alongside muted prospects of a U.S.-India trade deal ahead of the August 1 deadline. While India is still awaiting concrete developments in negotiations, sentiment surrounding a deal between the European Union and the U.S. turned sour with leaders in France and Germany lamenting the outcome. The euro was last quoted a tad lower at 1.1584 after falling more than 1% against the dollar on Monday. Asian currencies, meanwhile, were moderately weaker between 0.2% and 0.4%. "With net short dollar positions looking crowded and easing, the U.S. dollar could get some reprieve in the near term," MUFG said in a note. But the focus will also be on the Federal Reserve's policy decision due on Wednesday wherein a dovish tilt could lead to renewed U.S. dollar weakness, supporting the broader Asian FX outlook, the note added. On the day, traders also pointed to an uptick in very-near tenor dollar-rupee swap rates spurred by anticipation of IPO-related cash dollar inflows alongside maturity of the Reserve Bank of India's forward dollar positions at the end of the month. The spot-week USD/INR swap rate, for instance, was quoting at an implied rate of about 0.60 paisa per day, well above the prevailing overnight swap rate of about 0.30 paisa.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee's modest uptick runs into dollar bids from importers, foreign banks
MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee nudged higher in early trading on Monday, aided by improved risk appetite, but gains were restricted by dollar demand related to importers' month-end payments and from foreign banks. The rupee was at 86.4675 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:20 a.m. IST, up slightly from its close at 86.5150 in the previous session. The local currency has weakened about 0.8% over July so far, hit by outflows from local equities alongside uncertainty about the timing of a U.S.-India trade deal, even as economies such as the European Union, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam secured deals. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. The EU also plans to invest some $600 billion in the United States and dramatically increase its purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment, President Donald Trump said on Sunday. The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar after the deal was announced. Meanwhile, the dollar index was little changed at 97.6 on the day while Asian currencies were trading mixed. The rupee is likely to hold an 86.38-86.57 range on Monday and trade with a slight depreciation bias, a trader at a state-run bank said. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab, nudged higher on Monday but are nursing losses of over 2.5% each on the month so far, troubled by tepid quarterly earnings and foreign portfolio outflows. A lack of strong foreign inflows, the Reserve Bank of India's ongoing unwinding of short forward dollar positions, and a quiet return to FX reserve accumulation have all weighed on the rupee, said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Risk boost from US-EU trade deal of little help to rupee as outflows persist
MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Monday, with any support from improved risk sentiment after a trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. likely to be capped by persistent foreign portfolio outflows. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.48-86.51 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with Friday's close of 86.5150. Global stocks rose and the euro firmed after the weekend deal between the EU and the U.S., which set the import tariff on most EU goods at 15% - half the rate initially threatened. Asian currencies traded mixed, while the dollar index was at 97.6. The U.S.-EU trade pact is expected to reduce trade-related uncertainty in a week dominated by central bank policy decisions and the U.S.'s August 1 deadline for trading partners to strike deals. Washington has already signed similar framework accords with Britain, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, India's trade minister told Reuters last week that the country is also hopeful of reaching a deal with the U.S. that includes "special and preferred treatment". Alongside these, monetary policy meetings in the U.S., Japan and other economies will be in focus this week. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, ANZ said it will watch for "tweaks to the language" in the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's comments for clues on possible rate cuts in September. Over the week, traders expect the rupee to hover between 86.20 and 86.80-86.90, with a slight depreciation bias given the persistent outflows from local stocks. Foreign investors have net sold Indian equities worth about $750 million so far in July, reversing three months of inflows. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.63; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paise ** Dollar index at 97.67 ** Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $68.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.39% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $231.1mln worth of Indian shares on July 24 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $55.2mln worth of Indian bonds on July 24
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Barclays says rupee fall 'overdone', BofA Global Research stays bullish
MUMBAI, July 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee's recent fall looks overdone to analysts at Barclays while their counterparts at BofA Global Research reckon that portfolio flows and a weak outlook for the dollar may help the rupee rise over the remainder of the year. Both hedge funds and real money investors added long positions on the rupee last month, per BofA's proprietary flow indicators. The firm expects the rupee to strengthen to 84 per U.S. dollar by the final quarter of calendar year 2025. Barclays, meanwhile, argues the rupee's decline over recent months is "reaching limits over the short term," and recommends fading any weakness around 86.50-87.00 levels. Although the firm sees a near-term limit to the rupee's decline, it has maintained its view towards INR depreciation in the months ahead. The rupee is on course to log its third consecutive monthly decline in July and has fallen about 2% from a 6-month peak of 84.58 hit in early-May. On the day, the currency was up 0.1% at 86.33 as of 12:15 P.M. IST. While a rise in Asian peers helped the rupee strengthen, dollar bids from at least two large foreign banks, likely on behalf of custodial clients, limited the gains, a trader at a mid-sized private bank said. Analysts at both Barclays and BofA Global Research also pointed out that the rupee's valuation in terms of both the nominal and real effective exchange rates has declined. "Given its recent FX competitiveness improvement there is less need for a further near term drop in the currency," Barclays analysts wrote in the Thursday note. Data released by the Reserve Bank of India after market-hours on Wednesday showed the rupee's 40-currency real effective exchange rate (REER) declined to 100.36, the lowest since May 2023. A REER above 100 indicates overvaluation of a currency while a sub-100 reading indicates undervaluation.
Yahoo
24-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Indian rupee likely to get a fleeting lift on US trade deals-driven risk rally
By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is poised to open higher on Wednesday, supported by upbeat risk appetite following progress on U.S. trade deals, although traders expect the move to be short-lived based on recent price action. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.34-86.36 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with the close of 86.4075 in the previous session. Recent sessions have shown that the rupee's opening strength often fades quickly. Tepid inflows, one-off dollar outflows, importer hedging, and weak near-term technicals have been cited as factors behind the currency's subdued performance by bankers. "Intraday fades (on dollar/rupee) have not been sticking - importers are lying in wait and speculators are not showing up on the sell side," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "It's hard to build a case for a move lower, no matter how positive the Asian cues are." The rupee has been depreciating in a slow, orderly fashion, with volatility remaining subdued. Despite slipping to a near one-month low, the 10-day realised volatility has dropped to 2%, the lowest since January. ASIA RALLIES Asian currencies and equities climbed on Thursday following more positive developments on the U.S. trade front. After the U.S. and Japan reached a deal to reduce tariffs, Washington and the European Union are reportedly moving toward a similar agreement that could include a 15% baseline U.S. tariff on EU goods—mirroring the terms of the Tokyo deal. Japanese shares extended Wednesday's rally and the euro crept toward its highest level in nearly four years on Thursday. Announcements of U.S. trade deals with Japan have boosted optimism that more agreements will be finalised ahead of the August 1 deadline, ANZ said in a note, pointing to an upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's trade delegation next week. Trade negotiations aside, markets will also be focused on a rate decision from the European Central Bank later in the day. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.46; onshore one-month forward premium at 11.75 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.14 ** Brent crude futures up 0.3% at $68.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.38% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $535.4 million worth of Indian shares on July 22 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $9.4 million worth of Indian bonds on July 22
