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What to expect from 'bomb cyclone' confirmed for Sydney and the NSW coast
What to expect from 'bomb cyclone' confirmed for Sydney and the NSW coast

RNZ News

time01-07-2025

  • Climate
  • RNZ News

What to expect from 'bomb cyclone' confirmed for Sydney and the NSW coast

By Tom Saunders , ABC Meteorologist The weather bureau has issued multiple warnings for flooding rain, gale-force winds and damaging surf for the NSW coast. (ABC News: Ben Clifford ) Photo: ABC News: Ben Clifford A "bomb cyclone" has formed in the western Tasman Sea, and its intensification shows signs of being even more explosive than initially forecast. Along with its strength, the other key concern is the system's location - developing near the coast which will ensure significant impacts for New South Wales, including Sydney. The low's coastal position will also nearly guarantee it becomes the first east coast low in three years, triggering the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) to issue multiple weather warnings for flooding rain, gale-force winds and damaging surf. When a low-pressure system transforms from non-existence to a formidable storm just a day later, meteorologists label it a "bomb cyclone", or a system that has experienced "bombogenesis". The expression "bomb" is due to the explosive speed of development, however, its usage is restricted only to systems where the reduction in pressure exceeds a specific rate based on latitude. Upgraded warnings for Tuesday now also warn of isolated destructive wind gusts above 125 kilometres per hour between Foster and Wollongong, including parts of Sydney's east. The pressure began falling on Monday afternoon off the NSW north coast as polar air over the south-east inland clashed with warm humid air off the Tasman Sea. By the evening, a fully formed low had developed just east of Grafton and it deepened overnight with a central pressure at Port Macquarie falling at a rate of 5 hectopascals (hPa) per 6 hours. Unsurprisingly rainfall was also increasing, and by 6am more than 50mm had fallen on parts of the Mid North Coast, Hunter and Illawarra. The low will deepen further on Tuesday while moving slowly south, and is on track for a 24-hour drop in pressure of about 25hPA - well above the threshold for a bomb cyclone of 15hPa, at 32 degrees latitude. The weather will continue to deteriorate through Tuesday as the low reaches a peak, including an increase in the intensity of rain, wind and surf. Here is a breakdown of the full impacts during the next 48 hours. By Monday 6pm, up to 50mm of rain was recorded near the coast. ( ABC News: Ben Clifford) Photo: ABC News: Ben Clifford The heaviest rain on Tuesday will gradually shift south down the coast, spreading from the Mid North Coast through the Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra and upper south coast. Twenty-four-hour totals from midnight to midnight are likely to average about 50 to 100mm across these districts within 50 to 100km of the coast, although the BOM is now expecting localised torrential falls of up to 120mm in 6 hours along the coastal fringe. At the higher end of this range, totals would exceed the July average in less than 24 hours - enough to trigger areas of flash flooding, including around Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong. River flooding is also possible, although the concentration of heavy falls near the coast is why the BOM's flood watch is only for minor flooding - since moderate and major flood events typically rely on heavy rain spreading further inland across river catchments to the Great Dividing Range. The heaviest rain and flood risk will then shift to the south coast and Gippsland on Wednesday, and again totals should average up to about 100mm but with pockets above that mark. It's possible heavy rain on Wednesday will track further inland, which would result in a greater flood threat for the more southern catchments. Rain will also continue up the coast on Wednesday, including around Sydney, lifting event totals to above 100mm from about Taree to Gippsland, with the risk of isolated regions seeing well over 200mm. All up there are 20 river catchments under threat of flooding from Wallis Lake near Forster, to Mitchell River east of Bairnsdale. Well over 100mm of rain is ahead for much of the NSW coast during the next 72 hours. (ABC News) Photo: ABC News The force of the wind will be fierce during this east coast low due to the very tight pressure gradient around the centre of the storm. Peak wind gusts should hit close to 110kph on Tuesday along the central stretch of the coast, starting around the Mid North Coast and Hunter, then shifting to Sydney and the Illawarra in the afternoon. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to bring down trees and lead to power outages, and under a scenario where the centre of the low makes a close pass to the shoreline, minor property damage and more widespread toppling of trees could result. A few thunderstorms could also form on Tuesday near the Hunter and lower Mid North Coast, which according to the BOM's storm forecast have the potential to produce destructive gusts over 125kph, and waterspouts. Destructive gusts may also develop from the Mid North Coast to the Illawarra if the centre of the low makes a close enough pass to the coast. Strong winds will continue through Wednesday, and possibly extend further north and south from about the Mid North Coast to the Victorian border. A consequence of the Tasman gales will be a rapid increase in surf through Tuesday, with combined seas and swells reaching about 5m by Tuesday night. Waves will continue rising into Wednesday when peaks between Seal Rocks and Batemans Bay could average up to 7m. Maximum waves are normally double the average and may hit close to 15m. Surf of this ferocity when combined with unusually high water levels from the low surface pressure is likely to cause significant beach erosion. The areas most at risk are beaches facing the wind. So in this case, south-facing beaches may see the greatest damage. While winds and rain along the coast should start to ease by Thursday, there is a lag for surf which will maintain huge waves until at least Friday. - ABC

Rain bomb to strike Australia's east coast: What the weather will be like in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and more
Rain bomb to strike Australia's east coast: What the weather will be like in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and more

Daily Mail​

time29-06-2025

  • Climate
  • Daily Mail​

Rain bomb to strike Australia's east coast: What the weather will be like in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and more

Millions of residents living along Australia's east coast have been warned to brace for heavy rain and gale force winds as a powerful low-pressure system builds. The low is expected to develop off the coast of NSW on Tuesday and drop up to 150mm of rain between Newcastle, Sydney and the Illawarra over a 48-hour period. Brisbane residents can also expect up to 30mm of rainfall on Monday before conditions ease over the week with lows of 11C and highs of 22C. Sydney will likely see morning fog and rainfall over the week, with the worst of the onslaught to hit on Tuesday. The city can expect lows of 8C and highs of 18C. Strong winds are also expected to harry the NSW, eastern Victorian and southeast Queensland coastlines as the low pressure system moves in. Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Angus Hines told Daily Mail Australia the wet change would replace a 'fairly stubborn' high-pressure system, which has gifted the state a run of clear weather. '(The low pressure system) will develop near the coast in the north of (NSW), somewhere near the Northern Rivers, but it really intensifies in the southwest, so closer to the Hunter, closer to Sydney where it becomes a powerful weather system on Tuesday,' he said. 'Then on about Thursday, between Thursday and Friday, it pulls out of the Tasman, getting quite far away from the country and also weakening at the same time.' He said the system would direct some 'very strong wind, and quite a lot of rainfall' onto eastern NSW. 'For anyone near the water there's going to be powerful waves and potential coastal erosion, it's a fairly notable outbreak of weather,' Mr Hines said. 'It could be over 100mm of rain particularly over the eastern parts of Sydney ... but basically wherever you are wet day Tuesday, wet day Wednesday.' Far northern Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory also received an unseasonable soaking on Sunday as a low-pressure trough made its way inland from the north. 'It was low-pressure that built up in the north and made up to a cloud band that was getting fuelled by moisture from the Gulf of Carpentaria, so getting fed by that tropical humidity, bringing a modest amount of rainfall at a typically quite dry time of the year,' Mr Hines said. He said there would be a few 'weak weather features' in the west of the country. Perth is set to host a subdued cold front bringing rainfall on Monday and Wednesday and lows of 9C and highs of 22C. In the country's south, Melbourne will see lows of 5C and Hobart will brave minimum temperatures as little as 2C. Adelaide is tipped to have a cloudy week bar Tuesday, as scattered showers develop into the weekend. The weather over Darwin will be seasonably sunny and clear as temperatures are tipped to remain between 18C and 30C. The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast tipped day and night temperatures across Australia would be above average in the south and west of NSW. The warmer change also carries with it the risk of fires in South Australia and Victoria. 'I think the longer term forecast over the next few months as we look into July the maximum temperature is shaping up to be higher than average,' Mr Hines said. Curiously, Mr Hines said, the longer range forecast is predicting more average temperatures going into August. Sydney Monday: Showers increasing. Min 10C. Max 18C. Tuesday: Rain. Min 11C. Max 17C. Wednesday: Showers. Min 12C. Max 17C. Canberra Monday: Morning frost. Partly -5C. Max 13C. Tuesday: Early frost. Shower or two. Min -1C. Max 13C. Wednesday: Shower or two. Min 3C. Max 12C. Melbourne Monday: Partly cloudy. Min 6C. Max 13C. Tuesday: Possible shower. Min 5C. Max 14C. Wednesday: Shower or two. Min 7C. Max 13C. Monday: Partly cloudy. Min 7C. Max 15C. Tuesday: Sunny. Min 5C. Max 15C. Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Min 4C. Max 15C. Perth Monday: Showers increasing. Min 12C. Max 22C. Tuesday: Shower or two. Min 12C. Max 22C. Wednesday: Showers. Min 12C. Max 20C. Darwin Monday: Sunny. Min 20C. Max 31C. Tuesday: Sunny. Min 20C. Max 31C. Wednesday: Sunny. Min 20C. Max 31C. Brisbane Monday: Rain. Min 14C. Max 18C. Tuesday: Sunny. Min 11C. Max 21C.

Weather: Orange rain warnings, strong winds, thunderstorms forecast as winter blast arrives
Weather: Orange rain warnings, strong winds, thunderstorms forecast as winter blast arrives

RNZ News

time03-06-2025

  • Climate
  • RNZ News

Weather: Orange rain warnings, strong winds, thunderstorms forecast as winter blast arrives

The country is about to be "plunged into winter" with snow to sea level possible in Canterbury and Otago by the weekend, MetService says. A long list of of rain and wind warnings and watches are in place as a winter blast is set to converge on both islands. It's coming from across the Tasman Sea and bringing heavy rain, gale-force winds, and potential snow . Today's rain radar map Photo: Screenshot / MetService The South Island's orange-level rain warnings cover the Tasman District, west of Motueka, from 6am on Wednesday; and Marlborough, northwest of the Richmond Range, and Nelson, east of the city, from 9am. Orange warnings for the North Island kick in for Taranaki Maunga from 7am; Northern Taihape and the southern parts of Taupō and Taumarunui from 10am; the Tararua Range from 11am. Most of these places can expect up to 150mm of rain with peak intensities of 20-30mm per hour, though the upper slopes of Taranaki Maunga could see heavier rain of up to 220mm. A further orange heavy rain warning is in place for Bay of Plenty, east of Whakatāne, and inland Gisborne/Tai Rāwhiti from 8pm on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Heavy rain watches are in place for Fiordland, north of Breaksea Sound, overnight; and Horowhenua, Kāpiti Coast and Wellington from Wednesday morning. Similar watches are in effect from Wednesday afternoon for Northland, Auckland and Great Barrier Island; Buller and Grey Districts south of Karamea; and Westland District, north of Fox Glacier. There's a long list of weather warnings and watches covering most of the country for the next few days. Photo: Screenshot / MetService MetService meteorologist Heather Keats described the list of warnings and watches as "huge" as the system begins to affect the country. She said "significant" wind and rain watches were in place, with some areas under orange rain warnings. "There's also thunderstorms again tied up in this system. So as the fronts travel across, they're going to possibly bring more downpours and we're expecting them to spark up from this afternoon... "We're talking again from about Westland all the way up the west of the entire North Island and as far east as Bay of Plenty." They could deliver up to 40mm of rain in an hour, Keats said, and a potential for flooding. "That warm northerly system meets a very biting southerly and that's when the snow kicks off from about midnight tonight." Canterbury, excluding Banks Peninsula, was under a heavy snow watch, with snow expected to fall above 300m, Keats said. There was the potential for snow at sea level for Otago and Canterbury from overnight on Friday. "So Christchurch, Dunedin you could be seeing some snow for winter as early as Friday night, Saturday. "It does feel like we're going to be plunged into winter because this biting southerly is for the entire country." It meant temperatures would be much colder than usual for this time of year, she said. Strong winds were expected for Wellington, Taranaki, Auckland and Northland. It might make conditions difficult for commuters in major cities, such as Auckland, Keats said. It was unlikely the rain warnings would be upgraded to red although it paid to keep an eye on the rain radar, she said. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

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