Latest news with #globaltrade
Arab News
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Arab News
Yemen missile launched toward Israel ‘most likely' intercepted, Israeli army says
The Israeli army said on Saturday that a missile launched from Yemen toward Israeli territory had been 'most likely successfully intercepted.' Israel has threatened Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement — which has been attacking Israel in what it says is solidarity with Gaza — with a naval and air blockade if its attacks on Israel persist. Since the start of Israel's war in Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis, who control most of Yemen, have been firing at Israel and at shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade. Most of the dozens of missiles and drones they have launched have been intercepted or fallen short. Israel has carried out a series of retaliatory strikes.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar question hovers over top central bankers meeting in Sintra
By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi FRANKFURT (Reuters) -A million-dollar question will hang over the world's top central bankers when they meet in Sintra, Portugal, next week: Is the monetary system centred on the U.S. currency beginning to unravel? The central bank heads of the United States, the euro zone, Britain, Japan and South Korea will also have a chance to give their views on how global trade tensions and war in the Middle East are affecting the outlook for inflation and growth at the European Central Bank's annual get-together. But with inflation seemingly under control in most countries, the much deeper issue likely to permeate their discussions is: Could U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist and unpredictable economic policies bring an end to the system that has ruled global finance for 80 years? "Like everybody else, they are struggling to figure out what kind of world we're heading into," said BNP Paribas chief economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago, who will also attend the forum in the picturesque hill town near Lisbon. "They've probably realised we're not going to get any answers anytime soon. And so the question is: How do you run monetary policy in that kind of environment?" Investors will hope to get some clues when Fed chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and the governors of the central bank of Japan, Britain and South Korea sit down for a panel discussion at the ECB's Forum on Central Banking on Tuesday. Among them, Powell will probably be in the hottest seat. He has been under intense pressure from Trump to cut interest rates but he has so far resisted. Any sign that the Fed's independence from the White House is under threat could erode the dollar's status as the world's currency of choice for trading, saving and investing. With his position bolstered by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Powell is likely to stick to his guns. But he faces an increasingly divided Federal Open Market Committee. Trump may also name Powell's successor well before his term expires next May, potentially undermining Powell's message. "A successor perceived by the market to be more open to accommodating Trump's damaging the independence of the Fed in setting policy," economists at Investec wrote. These fears have driven the dollar down to an almost four-year low of $1.17 against the euro in recent months. EURO'S MOMENT? ECB President Christine Lagarde will be in a relatively novel position for any chief of the euro zone's central bank: promoting the single currency as a bastion of stability. While her predecessor Mario Draghi faced speculation about a collapse of the euro until only a few years ago, Lagarde is capitalising on the dollar's woes to promote "euro's moment". If pessimism about the single currency proved overdone a decade ago, economists -- and Lagarde herself -- are adamant the European Union has its work cut out if it is to elevate the euro from its status as distant second in the global currency chart. The EU, still more a confederation of states than anything resembling a union, is widely seen as needing greater financial, economic and military integration before it can challenge the dollar's status. A net 16% of 75 central banks surveyed by OMFIF said they plan to increase euro holdings over the next 12 to 24 months, making it the most in-demand currency but still far less popular than gold. "I'm more optimistic about what's happening in Europe than I've been in a long time, but there's no guarantee of success," BNP Paribas' Mateos y Lago said. The central bankers of South Korea, Japan and Britain are likely to face some tricky questions of their own. The Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly cautious about raising interest rates -- despite some internal qualms and sticky food-price inflation -- due to the expected impact of U.S. tariffs. The Bank of Korea, which had been fearing a flood of cheap Chinese goods, could be forced to end its current easing cycle due to a sudden upswing in the property market. The Bank of England, where three of nine policymakers voted for a cut earlier this month, is also trying to work out whether signs of a slowdown in the labour market will ease still-strong inflation pressures from fast pay growth. "You start to see a lot more division in terms of voting and amongst the economists," KBRA's European Macro Strategist Gordon Kerr said. "I think everybody just needs to be paying attention and be ready to react." (Additional reporting by Cynthia Kim in Seoul, Leika Kihara in Japan and Bill Schomberg in London; Editing by Hugh Lawson) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
Crisis mode: South Africa's new strategies for supply-chain disruptions
Crisis is no longer the exception — it's the default setting of global trade. From pandemic shocks to port gridlocks, geopolitical ruptures to tariff reversals, the world's supply chains are being stress-tested like never before. For South Africa, the latest upheaval — a US court ruling reigniting tariff uncertainties — is more than a blip on the radar. It's a flashing red warning that the country must stop reacting and start re-engineering how it sources, partners, and prepares. What's at stake isn't just exports. It's economic resilience — and survival. The decision to overturn former President Donald Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs has triggered confusion among global importers, sending freight rates soaring and igniting fears of renewed congestion across global shipping lanes. According to PwC, over R47bn ($2.5bn) in South African exports to the United States, primarily steel and aluminium, are at risk from the possible reinstatement of Section 232 tariffs. If enforced, these tariffs could shrink South Africa's exports to the US by up to 35% in key sectors, with knock-on effects including supply-chain contraction, job losses, and increased operational costs due to rerouting and compliance burdens. Supply chain strain 'Geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical. It is immediate, material, and embedded in how our supply chains are designed,' says Paul Vos, Regional Managing Director: Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) Southern Africa. 'South African businesses must ask themselves not just how to respond, but how to build resilience into every layer of their procurement strategy proactively.' The warning signs are already visible. Global freight rates have surged in recent weeks: the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index spiked by 487 points, and Drewry's World Container Index climbed by over 10% to $2,508 per 40-foot container. This has been driven by a rush of US-bound cargo ahead of expected tariff enforcement, which has tightened capacity on major routes and triggered a wave of reinstated services and container delays. Locally, South African ports have been strained by both volume and fragility. In the final week of May alone, over 84,000 containers (TEUs) moved through the country's ports, up 17% from the previous week, despite adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, and staffing shortages. Cross-border trade flows are similarly under pressure, with delays and border queue times costing the transport industry an estimated R168m in a single week, according to the latest Business Unity South Africa (Busa) and South African Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff) cargo movement update. Procurement leads transformation Vos says that the lessons from past crises, such as Covid-19, the Ukraine war, and Red Sea shipping risks, must no longer be treated as one-offs. 'What these events all underscore is the systemic fragility of global supply networks. For South Africa, resilience must become a national priority, not a boardroom afterthought.' The country has made some strides since the pandemic, particularly in supplier diversification and localisation. Larger corporations have led the way, investing in the development of local suppliers and reshoring elements of their supply chains. But Vos cautions that progress is uneven and not always strategic. 'Much of what we see is compliance-driven localisation, designed to meet procurement thresholds, not create competitive advantage. To truly localise, we need supply-chain ecosystems: infrastructure, access to markets, skills development, and sustained demand.' Vos believes the procurement profession must play a leading role in rethinking how organisations assess and mitigate risk. This starts with visibility, not just into Tier 1 suppliers, but deep into second- and third-tier networks. Digital control towers, scenario planning, AI-driven risk analysis, and real-time geopolitical alert systems are fast becoming standard tools in resilient supply chains. However, he warns that these tools are only as good as the data, governance, and talent behind them. Another critical step is redefining how value is measured. Vos argues that procurement teams need to move beyond focusing on the lowest-cost wins. 'Efficiency and resilience are not opposites. Long-term competitiveness comes from total cost of ownership thinking, factoring in risk, sustainability, supplier health, and ESG performance.' He points to dual sourcing models, inventory buffers for critical inputs, and deeper supplier partnerships as practical measures that pay off in times of disruption. Prepare for disruption The state has a role to play, too. Vos calls for national policy frameworks that support industrial incentives, regulatory coherence, and the renewal of logistics infrastructure. But more importantly, he believes in the importance of public-private collaboration to drive change. 'Sector-wide procurement platforms, shared supplier development programmes, and joint accountability for skills and jobs- these are the mechanisms that build real resilience.' Professionalising the procurement function will also be key to long-term resilience. Qualifications like MCIPS equip practitioners with the ethical frameworks, strategic insight, and risk management tools necessary to lead through complexity. 'Professionalisation is the foundation of ethical, capable supply chains, particularly in the public sector, where procurement must be the first line of defence against waste and corruption,' says Vos. Looking ahead, South African businesses must prepare for future disruptions that are no longer hypothetical. These include the impact of carbon border taxes, cybersecurity threats, political instability, climate-driven shocks, and persistent infrastructure constraints in energy, transport and logistics. Vos argues that future-proofing means not just responding to these risks, but anticipating them, and acting now. That future will belong to those who digitise, decentralise, and decarbonise. 'To thrive through uncertainty - not just survive it - we must embed resilience in how we buy, build, and partner. The next crisis is not a matter of if, but when.'
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Dollar question hovers over top central bankers meeting in Sintra
FRANKFURT, June 27 (Reuters) - A million-dollar question will hang over the world's top central bankers when they meet in Sintra, Portugal, next week: Is the monetary system centred on the U.S. currency beginning to unravel? The central bank heads of the United States, the euro zone, Britain, Japan and South Korea will also have a chance to give their views on how global trade tensions and war in the Middle East are affecting the outlook for inflation and growth at the European Central Bank's annual get-together. But with inflation seemingly under control in most countries, the much deeper issue likely to permeate their discussions is: Could U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist and unpredictable economic policies bring an end to the system that has ruled global finance for 80 years? "Like everybody else, they are struggling to figure out what kind of world we're heading into," said BNP Paribas chief economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago, who will also attend the forum in the picturesque hill town near Lisbon. "They've probably realised we're not going to get any answers anytime soon. And so the question is: How do you run monetary policy in that kind of environment?" Investors will hope to get some clues when Fed chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and the governors of the central bank of Japan, Britain and South Korea sit down for a panel discussion at the ECB's Forum on Central Banking on Tuesday. Among them, Powell will probably be in the hottest seat. He has been under intense pressure from Trump to cut interest rates but he has so far resisted. Any sign that the Fed's independence from the White House is under threat could erode the dollar's status as the world's currency of choice for trading, saving and investing. With his position bolstered by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Powell is likely to stick to his guns. But he faces an increasingly divided Federal Open Market Committee. Trump may also name Powell's successor well before his term expires next May, potentially undermining Powell's message. "A successor perceived by the market to be more open to accommodating Trump's damaging the independence of the Fed in setting policy," economists at Investec wrote. These fears have driven the dollar down to an almost four-year low of $1.17 against the euro in recent months. ECB President Christine Lagarde will be in a relatively novel position for any chief of the euro zone's central bank: promoting the single currency as a bastion of stability. While her predecessor Mario Draghi faced speculation about a collapse of the euro until only a few years ago, Lagarde is capitalising on the dollar's woes to promote "euro's moment". If pessimism about the single currency proved overdone a decade ago, economists -- and Lagarde herself -- are adamant the European Union has its work cut out if it is to elevate the euro from its status as distant second in the global currency chart. The EU, still more a confederation of states than anything resembling a union, is widely seen as needing greater financial, economic and military integration before it can challenge the dollar's status. A net 16% of 75 central banks surveyed by OMFIF said they plan to increase euro holdings over the next 12 to 24 months, making it the most in-demand currency but still far less popular than gold. "I'm more optimistic about what's happening in Europe than I've been in a long time, but there's no guarantee of success," BNP Paribas' Mateos y Lago said. The central bankers of South Korea, Japan and Britain are likely to face some tricky questions of their own. The Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly cautious about raising interest rates -- despite some internal qualms and sticky food-price inflation -- due to the expected impact of U.S. tariffs. The Bank of Korea, which had been fearing a flood of cheap Chinese goods, could be forced to end its current easing cycle due to a sudden upswing in the property market. The Bank of England, where three of nine policymakers voted for a cut earlier this month, is also trying to work out whether signs of a slowdown in the labour market will ease still-strong inflation pressures from fast pay growth. "You start to see a lot more division in terms of voting and amongst the economists," KBRA's European Macro Strategist Gordon Kerr said. "I think everybody just needs to be paying attention and be ready to react."
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
How Africa is cushioned from shocks of geopolitical crises?
Africa's sluggish participation in global trade is turning out to be the thing protecting it from the full force of economic shocks resulting from President Donald Trump's trade war with China, and the wars in the Middle East, which risk contraction of economies, experts warn. Africa is already bracing for energy shocks, where countries that import the bulk of their oil are faced with high fuel prices, especially after Iran chose to close the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for goods coming to Africa. Economists say the war between Iran and Israel could mean a boon for oil-producing African countries -- Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Equatorial Guinea – which are angling to step up as alternative sources.'The lack of involvement in global trade economic dynamics, which has been considered a weakness, is actually becoming a strength, it is protecting us,' said Yemi Kele, Afreximbank's chief economist, at the ongoing Afreximbank annual meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.'We have the Western economies talking and trading among themselves, the Eastern countries talking and trading among themselves, and Africa that talking and trading with both all the blocs. We are not involved in all their drama. Iran and Israel are fighting, Nigerian oil exporters are smiling,' he said. Yemi said if China refuses to export its rare earth minerals, the countries that need them will start talking to African countries with these minerals.'The global trade wars, the heightened geopolitical tensions all have an impact -- 2025/2026 is going to be a difficult year for the global economy. Africa is trying to figure out what to do to navigate these challenges and take advantage of what is happening globally,' he added.'If our usual external trading partners are pushed to demand less of our products then we will be affected, otherwise Africa will remain resilient. We expect intra-African trade to go up and inflation to go down,' Yemi noted. 'I've been a central bank governor, minister of Finance, but I've never seen anything like this --where aid is declining at a fast rate, debt has crossed $1 trillion and countries on the continent have to pay about $1 billion per year as interest. You can imagine the situation it creates for micro economic management at the country level, yet investments are so low because of the perception of risk from unfavourable credit ratings…That's why we need a reform of the global financial architecture. This is where African multilateral financial institutions become indispensable,' he said. He emphasised the urgency to operationalise an African credit rating agency reflecting African realities, to avoid the rating bias Africans face from global credit ratings. Fringe mining countries such as Rwanda are already cashing in on a surge in prices of key minerals like tungsten and coltan on the international market, as global demand for rare earth minerals and related minerals soar, as China continues its curb export of rare earth minerals useful in automotive, robotics, aerospace, semiconductor, and defence industries. As a result, some European auto part makers have suspended output. Mercedes-Benz for instance, is rationing stocks of rare earth minerals, as it seeks alternative sources. East Africa may dodge bullet of global tariff tensions: AfDBAfrican countries that have rare earth mineral deposits are Angola, South Africa, Uganda, Malawi, and Tanzania.2025 is expected to mark a turning point in Africa's rare earth mineral trade, with the continent poised to take a more prominent role in the global supply chain. Forecasts indicate that Africa's contribution to global rare earth mineral production could reach 10 percent in the next few years. A new African trade report released by Afreximbank, says despite the difficult global environment, Africa recorded a 3.2 percent growth rate in 2024, but still below its 5 percent pre-pandemic growth. This performance was underpinned by stronger public investment, high commodity prices (notably of gold, cocoa, and coffee), and the early success of diversification strategies. But growth on the continent remained uneven, with resource-dependent countries facing greater challenges. Encouragingly, fiscal reforms by African governments have led to improvements in macroeconomic stability, with declining median debt ratios and renewed sovereign access to international capital markets in eight countries. Africa's inflation inched up from 18.2 percent in 2023 to 20.1 percent in 2024. While Africa's merchandise trade also recovered in 2024, rebounding by 13.9 percent to $1.5 trillion, significantly up from a decline of about 5.4 percent in 2023. Intra-African trade exhibited a remarkable upturn in 2024 of 12.4 percent to $220.3 billion, rebounding from a decline of 5.9 percent the previous year. © Copyright 2022 Nation Media Group. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
