Latest news with #goldbugs
Forbes
25-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Has Gold Topped Out?
Sitting Gold Bars and Sitting on Financial Chart Background, Finance Concepts (Depth of field) The powerful rally in the gold market since the breakout in late 2023 is exactly what the gold bulls were looking for in the early 1980s after gold had peaked out. In those days, there were large conferences for gold investors where 4,000 –5,000 serious 'gold bugs' would tell me they had 30-60% of their investment portfolio in gold. My suggestions about the merits of diversification did not have much of an impact. These conferences continued for many years. Rallies like the almost 50% gain in late 1987 gave these investors hope, which, of course, is not an investment strategy. Comex Gold - Monthly Investors have surged into gold in the past two years after the prior 2020 high at 1920 per ounce was surpassed. So, what is the current outlook for gold? In August and September of 2011, the Comex gold futures traded well above their monthly starc+ bands for two months in a row, which was a warning sign. That eventually led to a major top as gold dropped from 1920 to 1045. Having followed gold since the 1980's have have noticed that prices often form trading ranges that can last months and even years. In my view, these occur because of extremes in sentiment that take time to be resolved. Such a range developed between July 2016 and June 2019, line a, that was completed by the June, closing at 1413. This was the start of the current rally that had an April high of 3509. Gold has been above its monthly starc+ band for five months in a row. For those who have followed my starc+ band analysis, know that it does not rule out even higher prices, but the rubber band is getting very stretched. The yearly pivot resistance at 3687 is a potential target for the next rally. Below the bar chart is the on-balance-volume (OBV), which moved above the downtrend line c in March 2024. The OBV is above its rising WMA in April and is still in a strong uptrend. The Herrick Payoff Index (HPI) is my favorite tool for commodities like gold and crude oil. The HPI uses the price action, volume, and open interest to measure money flow. The HPI moved above zero in November of 2022 as the money flow is still positive. The HPI recently made a new high with prices and no divergences are evident. Comex Gold - Weekly The positive slope on the WMA of the OBV and HPI is not giving any warning signs of a top. The gold futures made their high in late April as they moved well above the weekly starc+ band before reversing back to test the 20-week EMA, which is now at $3259. The monthly R1 for July is at $3558 with the weekly starc+ band at 3655. I have highlighted with arrows those times when the starc+ or starc- bands have been reached. These bands do a good job of identifying price extremes on the weekly chart. Based on the closing prices, the OBV has formed lower highs since April, line a, thereby forming a negative or bearish divergence. The OBV is declining but is still above its WMA. On a long-term basis, the HPI has formed lower highs but has been positive and above the zero line since October 27, 2023. If this is just a pullback in an uptrend, the rising WMA could be tested before gold resumes its uptrend. Comex Gold - Daily As the stock market rallied sharply on Tuesday, gold was down over 46 dollars as it closed down 1.4%. The close was below the 20-day EMA at 3348 with the monthly pivot at 3282. This is just above the daily starc-band at 3274. The recent trading range also has support, line b, at 3270 with key resistance at 3472. The tentative monthly pivot for July is at 3373, and a close back above this level would be positive. The daily OBV has formed lower highs, line c, and closed below its flat WMA, so it is currently negative. That is also the status of the HPI as it closed at -169, so the daily money flow is now negative. The last positive signal occurred on 5/21/25. The HPI needs to move back above the zero line and the resistance at line d, to indicate a new rally. The monthly analysis requires patience, but it is the most reliable for determining the major trend. Even though gold is quite overbought based on the monthly starc+ band analysis, it does not yet indicate that gold has formed a major top. In contrast, both the weekly and daily analyses are negative and the 20-week EMA at 3259 could be tested. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has dropped back to its monthly pivot at $303.67, so stops could be hit. For longer-term traders, a stop under $296 is suggested, and investors should wait for new weekly buy signals before doing new buying. For Tom's recent commentary on the stock market after the bombing of Iran can be found here.
Telegraph
14-06-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Think petrol-powered cars are dead? Tell that to investors
As you would expect, the price of gold surged anew alongside that of oil after Israel launched a wave of attacks on Iran. Rising global instability is meat and drink for gold bugs; there's nothing they like more than the sight of fighter jets on the move. But hold on, what's this? Prices are also surging in that largely forgotten corner of the precious metals markets, platinum, and it's got very little to do with Iranian ambitions for a nuclear bomb. Rather, it is the growing conviction that there is life after apparent death for the internal combustion engine (ICE). Despite the best efforts of policymakers to kill them off, petrol-fuelled cars are experiencing something of a comeback in more environmentally acceptable, hybrid form. The market for traditional all petrol cars is also continuing to grow strongly in non OECD countries. What's that got to do with the price of platinum? Though not nearly as widely held as gold, the metal enjoys some of the same characteristics, in that it is extensively used in jewellery and there is steady, if unspectacular, investment demand for it. But it has historically failed to command the same totemic status as gold as an alternative form of money, or as insurance against collapse in the global monetary order – a tail risk that seems to grow bigger by the day. On the other hand, it does have an industrial use, catalytic converters, and that's where the lion's share of the demand comes from. These convert harmful emissions from ICE vehicles into less harmful ones. When Western governments announced timelines for going all electric, it was therefore widely assumed that this also sounded the death knell for platinum. Once upon a time, the metal enjoyed near price parity with gold, but over the past decade, it has lagged ever further behind, and now stands at close to a record discount of more than $2,000 (£1,474) per ounce. Corecam, a Zurich-based wealth management firm, thinks it has spotted an opportunity. In recent analysis, the firm points out that platinum prices are now near or below the cost of production for many South African miners, where 80pc of the global platinum supply originates. Most producers are struggling to break even, a predicament that historically marks the cyclical bottom in commodity markets. Hardly any investment has flowed into new sources of platinum production in recent years. Now consider the following. Despite the incentives offered, EVs have failed to achieve the market penetration expected of them. Range limitation, basic lack of charging point infrastructure, and of course still relatively high prices have been a turn-off for consumers.
Globe and Mail
31-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
3 Different Ways to Add Gold to Your Portfolio
Gold has been on a tremendously strong run since 2024. That momentum has accelerated in 2025 with the yellow metal cracking the $3,000 per troy ounce level. It hasn't stopped there. Recently, the price of gold touched $3,500 before falling back. Many investors may wonder if they should buy gold at these prices. The short answer is yes, and it's because of the reason why the price of gold is rising so sharply. Even though consumers can buy gold bars at Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), retail investors haven't turned into wide-eyed gold bugs. The driving force behind gold's strong move is central banks around the world. They're gobbling up as much gold as they can. Demand is down from its peak levels between 2022 and 2024, but it's still at historically high levels. This modern-day gold rush started as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, in 2025, the move to gold is a calculated move by central banks against a devalued U.S. dollar. In fact, some governments may be hedging for a world in which the dollar may not be the world's reserve currency. Many technical signals show that the spot price of gold may be in a consolidation phase. That could be setting the stage for a jump higher. That's leaving some investors in a quandary. They may want exposure to gold, but they don't want to own the physical metal. Here are three ways to capture some upside in gold without dealing with the logistics of owning physical gold. Gold Miners Still Look Undervalued [content-module:CompanyOverview|NYSEARCA:GDX] Gold prices have gone up, but prior to 2025, gold mining stocks have lagged behind other basic materials stocks. That's because, much like oil companies, gold miners need gold to be at a certain price to make extracting it a profitable activity. This is showing up in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX), which is up 46.7% year-to-date. That's one way to play mining stocks. Another approach is to buy the best, which can lead investors to Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM). Newmont is one of the world's largest gold miners. In fact, it's a top holding of the GDX fund with a weighting of 11.5%. In its most recent earnings report in April 2025, Newmont's revenue came in 24% higher year-over-year (YoY). However, it was the earnings growth that really got investors' attention. Newmont beat analysts' estimates by 37% and the $1.25 in earnings per share (EPS) was 127% higher YoY. As of this writing, NEM stock was within 5% of the analysts' consensus price. However, at least two analysts have raised their price target on NEM stock with a price target of over $60 per share. Own Gold and Trade It Like a Stock [content-module:CompanyOverview|NYSEARCA:IAU] Fund investors have several options that give them exposure to gold. The GDX fund is one way. Another is the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: IAU). The fund owns gold that is transferred to the Trust in exchange for shares issued by the Trust. It's a way to own the right to physical gold without any of the logistics that come from owning the metal (i.e., storage and insurance). Another obstacle to owning physical gold is what happens when investors want to sell. Owning shares of the IAU makes accessing your 'gold' as easy as selling shares. As you might expect, the performance of the IAU fund closely approximates the performance of gold (it's up about 25% in 2025 as of May 28). Investors also benefit from an expense ratio of just 0.25%. That means less money taken out by fees and a better total return over time. A Strategic Way to Make Gold Even More of an Inflation Hedge [content-module:CompanyOverview|NYSEARCA:GOLY] One of the most cited reasons to own gold is that it works as an inflation hedge. If you believe that, the Strategy Shares Gold-Hedged Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: GOLY) deserves close attention. This is a fund that tracks an index that provides broad exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds (in U.S. dollars) while using near-term gold futures to hedge inflation risk. The mix is about 90% investment-grade corporate bonds with 10% in Treasury bills. Fund manager David Miller explains the benefit of the fund in this way: "The idea behind this is we think we could make gold better by adding a yield, or we think we can make bonds better by making them inflation protected." The GOLY fund is up about 18.75% in 2025, which lags gold slightly. Still, the fund is up 27.75% in the last 12 months and could be headed much higher if inflation does ratchet higher. Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now? Before you make your next trade, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. Our team has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and none of the big name stocks were on the list.
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The bad economic vibes are causing more people to stock up on gold
Bad vibes in the economy are making gold a more attractive investment. Demand for physical gold jumped 13% in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Gold dealers say clients are worried about the dollar's decline, a debt crisis, and other scenarios. Marc Faber, a longtime investor who says his nickname is "Dr. Doom" (not to be confused with this Dr. Doom), has been buying gold for decades and telling other people to stock up for just as long. The gold bug regularly appears on videos extolling the metal's virtues while sounding alarms about economic collapse. He's eyeing a litany of crises coming our way: a debt crisis, a plunge in asset prices, and soaring inflation round out his list of concerns. "My sense is that a debt crisis is inevitable," he said, adding that he buys gold regularly, with the metal comprising 25% of his overall portfolio. Faber's clients also hold a significant portion of their wealth in gold, but the scramble to own more of the metal that's helped drive prices higher this year is spreading to more everyday investors. Blame the bad energy in the economy in 2025, with "soft data" like consumer sentiment and inflation expectations souring even as the economy continues to hold up. Some of what these buyers are worried about—which, among Faber's clients range from hyperinflation to the start of World War III—are unlikely. But forecasters don't expect the heightened demand from nervous buyers to end anytime soon. Gold bugs having been popping up in the US and abroad. Global demand for gold bars climbed to 257 metric tons in the first quarter of 2025, up 13% in a year, according to the World Gold Council. This embedded content is not available in your region. Joe Cavatoni, a market strategist at the World Gold Council, said he believes concerns about the US dollar, economic weakness in the US, and the government's debt and deficit are several reasons gold demand is rising. This year, Google search interest for "gold bars" has spiked on market-moving events, like the announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and Moody's downgrading the US debt. This embedded content is not available in your region. Genesis Gold Group, a gold dealer that commonly works with clients it describes as "homesteaders" or "preppers," says it's seen intense interest in gold in the last few quarters. Demand for gold has been so hot, the company rolled out a prepper bar, a gold bar that can be broken off into pieces, making it easier to trade in the event of a crisis. Jonathan Rose, the CEO of Genesis, says demand for prepper bars briefly surged after the presidential election and then jumped 20% in the first quarter of 2025, around the time President Donald Trump began to iron out his tariff policy. More clients who have invested in gold have also been requesting that the gold be sent to them, Rose said, estimating that the number of the firm's clients who insist on holding physical gold has risen to 70%, up from 20% in past years. Most of Genesis's clients are off-the-grid types who desire to be self-sufficient in the event of a collapse, Rose said. But not all of them are as extreme. More everyday people have come to him over the years, with fears about the dollar, inflation, and volatility in risk assets like stocks. "They have a preparedness plan, you then find out — you kind of peel the layers back — that these people also have dry food, they have water supplies, and it doesn't mean that they're tinfoil hat people and they're living off the grid and they're listening to shortwave radio. These are just general people looking for a hedge," he said of their interest in gold. On the subreddit r/preppers, where membership has soared 354% since 2020, according to historical subreddit data, questions about stocks up on gold regularly flow in from users. "It helps when a currency collapses. Cash is always king, until it collapses, then that's where gold and silver step in," one user wrote. It's been a good time to own gold. The price of bullion has climbed 25% in 2025, handily beating the S&P 500, which is down by about 1% year-to-date. This embedded content is not available in your region. Analysts say that some of the worries driving gold demand could be overstated. While the risk of a US recession is elevated, Wall Street forecasters don't expect the economy to enter a serious downturn. Goldman Sachs recently lowered its recession outlook from 45% to 35%, while Barclays recently removed its forecast for a mild recession. Trump's tax bill has also stoked more concern about the US debt and budget deficit in the last week. But those worries will likely ease, especially if policymakers amend the bill to appease investors in the bond market, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, told BI this week. "There's definitely a feel that there may be a little bit excessive influx," Michael Boutros, a senior technical strategist at StoneX, told BI. "There's a lot of fearmongering going on in the markets right now." Still, Boutrous thinks the demand for gold will remain strong as long as people feel uncertain about the economy. Even when trade agreements get hammered out, he believes investors will still be jittery as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on the economy. "The rockier things get, the more this is going to find footing," he said of gold's price momentum. "It's just really hard to justify a strong bearish, a bear sentiment on this." "We see the price support and the upward trajectory very well positioned for 2025," the World Gold Council's Cavatoni added. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The bad economic vibes are causing more people to stock up on gold
Bad vibes in the economy are making gold a more attractive investment. Demand for physical gold jumped 13% in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Gold dealers say clients are worried about the dollar's decline, a debt crisis, and other scenarios. Marc Faber, a longtime investor who says his nickname is "Dr. Doom" (not to be confused with this Dr. Doom), has been buying gold for decades and telling other people to stock up for just as long. The gold bug regularly appears on videos extolling the metal's virtues while sounding alarms about economic collapse. He's eyeing a litany of crises coming our way: a debt crisis, a plunge in asset prices, and soaring inflation round out his list of concerns. "My sense is that a debt crisis is inevitable," he said, adding that he buys gold regularly, with the metal comprising 25% of his overall portfolio. Faber's clients also hold a significant portion of their wealth in gold, but the scramble to own more of the metal that's helped drive prices higher this year is spreading to more everyday investors. Blame the bad energy in the economy in 2025, with "soft data" like consumer sentiment and inflation expectations souring even as the economy continues to hold up. Some of what these buyers are worried about—which, among Faber's clients range from hyperinflation to the start of World War III—are unlikely. But forecasters don't expect the heightened demand from nervous buyers to end anytime soon. Gold bugs having been popping up in the US and abroad. Global demand for gold bars climbed to 257 metric tons in the first quarter of 2025, up 13% in a year, according to the World Gold Council. This embedded content is not available in your region. Joe Cavatoni, a market strategist at the World Gold Council, said he believes concerns about the US dollar, economic weakness in the US, and the government's debt and deficit are several reasons gold demand is rising. This year, Google search interest for "gold bars" has spiked on market-moving events, like the announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and Moody's downgrading the US debt. This embedded content is not available in your region. Genesis Gold Group, a gold dealer that commonly works with clients it describes as "homesteaders" or "preppers," says it's seen intense interest in gold in the last few quarters. Demand for gold has been so hot, the company rolled out a prepper bar, a gold bar that can be broken off into pieces, making it easier to trade in the event of a crisis. Jonathan Rose, the CEO of Genesis, says demand for prepper bars briefly surged after the presidential election and then jumped 20% in the first quarter of 2025, around the time President Donald Trump began to iron out his tariff policy. More clients who have invested in gold have also been requesting that the gold be sent to them, Rose said, estimating that the number of the firm's clients who insist on holding physical gold has risen to 70%, up from 20% in past years. Most of Genesis's clients are off-the-grid types who desire to be self-sufficient in the event of a collapse, Rose said. But not all of them are as extreme. More everyday people have come to him over the years, with fears about the dollar, inflation, and volatility in risk assets like stocks. "They have a preparedness plan, you then find out — you kind of peel the layers back — that these people also have dry food, they have water supplies, and it doesn't mean that they're tinfoil hat people and they're living off the grid and they're listening to shortwave radio. These are just general people looking for a hedge," he said of their interest in gold. On the subreddit r/preppers, where membership has soared 354% since 2020, according to historical subreddit data, questions about stocks up on gold regularly flow in from users. "It helps when a currency collapses. Cash is always king, until it collapses, then that's where gold and silver step in," one user wrote. It's been a good time to own gold. The price of bullion has climbed 25% in 2025, handily beating the S&P 500, which is down by about 1% year-to-date. This embedded content is not available in your region. Analysts say that some of the worries driving gold demand could be overstated. While the risk of a US recession is elevated, Wall Street forecasters don't expect the economy to enter a serious downturn. Goldman Sachs recently lowered its recession outlook from 45% to 35%, while Barclays recently removed its forecast for a mild recession. Trump's tax bill has also stoked more concern about the US debt and budget deficit in the last week. But those worries will likely ease, especially if policymakers amend the bill to appease investors in the bond market, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, told BI this week. "There's definitely a feel that there may be a little bit excessive influx," Michael Boutros, a senior technical strategist at StoneX, told BI. "There's a lot of fearmongering going on in the markets right now." Still, Boutrous thinks the demand for gold will remain strong as long as people feel uncertain about the economy. Even when trade agreements get hammered out, he believes investors will still be jittery as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on the economy. "The rockier things get, the more this is going to find footing," he said of gold's price momentum. "It's just really hard to justify a strong bearish, a bear sentiment on this." "We see the price support and the upward trajectory very well positioned for 2025," the World Gold Council's Cavatoni added. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
