Latest news with #goldmarket
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Royal Gold (RGLD) Dips After Acquisition News But Options Traders Don't Seem Worried
Precious metals specialist Royal Gold (RGLD), which focuses on the acquisition and management of streaming and royalty interests, generated headlines on Monday — though perhaps for the wrong reason. According to the company's press release, Royal agreed to acquire Sandstorm Gold (SAND) and Horizon Copper (HNCUF) for a transaction equity value of about $3.5 billion and $196 million, respectively. While the acquired entities surged in value, RGLD stock dropped 6.44%. Overall, long-term investors aren't feeling too shabby. Since the beginning of this year, RGLD stock gained almost 28%, even with yesterday's big drop. In the past 52 weeks, the security moved up more than 28%. Just as importantly, while the underlying gold market has been choppy since April, it appears to have reached a stabilization point around the $3,300 level. Constellation Brands Stock is Down But Produced Good Earnings - Is STZ a Buy Here? How Unusual Options Standout Boston Scientific (BSX) is Signaling a Statistical Edge Trading DAL Earnings? This Naked Put Play Benefits from Volatility Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! With economic and geopolitical uncertainties looming, it's not unreasonable to believe that the yellow metal may once again receive safe-haven demand. If so, RGLD stock could potentially resume its upward trajectory. What's even more intriguing, the smart money seems to have confidence in Royal Gold despite Monday's hiccup. When the closing bell rang out, RGLD stock represented one of the highlights of Barchart's screener for unusual options volume. Specifically, total volume hit 3,939 contracts, representing a 291.94% lift over the trailing one-month average. Still, what may have caught some investors off guard was the put/call ratio of nearly 0.99, where call volume landed at 1,983 contracts while put volume reached 1,956 contracts. On the surface, the even ground implies relatively equal sentiment between the bulls and bears. However, options flow — which focuses exclusively on big block transactions likely placed by institutional investors — shows net trade sentiment at $70,700 above parity, thus favoring the bulls. While fundamental catalysts and options market interpretations provide important color and context, the information can be rather opaque. With the former category, the market has likely priced in all publicly available information of note. Regarding the latter, the transactions are not necessarily clear-cut. For instance, a call option could be a straight debit wager or it could be the credit portion of a multi-leg strategy. To better understand how the market will respond, one approach is to convert the chaos of everyday price discovery into a unified language that stays stationary across time. In this manner, demand profiles can be segregated into distinct, discrete behavioral states. From there, traders can extract — through studying past analogs — the likelihood of transition from one behavioral state to another. To achieve this framework, price action can be converted into market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. As a representation of demand, market breadth is effectively binary — investors at the end of the day (or session) are either net buyers or net sellers. Through this binary code, traders can get an empirical gauge of how the target asset responds to various conditions. In the trailing two months, the price action of RGLD stock can be arranged as a '4-6-U' sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, this conversion process pancakes RGLD's magnitude dynamism into a simple binary code. But the benefit is that this code — once identified — can be analyzed to see how it responded in prior circumstances. As it turns out, the 4-6-U is relatively rare, having only materialized 15 times since January 2019. Notably, though, in 73.33% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 3.07%. Should the bulls maintain control for a second week, they may anticipate an additional 1.11% of performance. Accounting for yesterday's volatility, a possible upside target would be around $175.30 over the next two weeks. For those willing to roll the dice, market gamblers may be tempted by the 170/175 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $170 call and simultaneously selling the $175 call, for a net debit paid of $240 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should RGLD stock rise through the short strike price ($175) at expiration, the maximum reward is $260, a payout of over 108%. Primarily, what's appealing about the above call spread is the implied shift in sentiment regime of the 4-6-U sequence. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in RGLD stock will be profitable is only 51.18%. With the aforementioned sequence flashing, the bulls potentially have a compelling opportunity to extract a quick reward. To be clear, we're still talking about probabilities, not certainties. Further, it should be mentioned that the stock market is an open system, meaning that outside influences can enter the paradigm and disrupt it. No model can perfectly account for such risks. Still, the above framework provides a decision-tree logic that may help traders think more empirically. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Reuters
27-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
China's total gold imports via Hong Kong fall 1.5% m/m in May
June 27 (Reuters) - China's total gold imports via Hong Kong fell 1.5% in May from April, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Friday. As the world's leading gold consumer, China's purchasing activities can significantly influence global gold markets. The Hong Kong data may not provide a complete picture of Chinese purchases, as gold is also imported via Shanghai and Beijing. Net imports via Hong Kong to China for May stood at 48.127 metric tons, compared to 43.462 tons net imports in April. China's total gold imports via Hong Kong reached 57.76 tons in May, down 1.5% from 58.61 tons in April. China aims to increase its gold resources by 5% to 10%, and its gold and silver output by more than 5% by 2027, the industry ministry said on Monday in an implementation plan for 2025 to 2027. Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Wednesday it would list ipau99.99hk and ipau99.5hk contracts on Thursday to expand the opening-up of the gold market to the outside world.
LBCI
25-06-2025
- Business
- LBCI
From chaos to calm: how markets rode out the Iran-Israel war
Report by Theresia Rahme, English Adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian The 12-day war between Iran and Israel rattled the global economy, but by the time it ended, markets had nearly returned to normal. So, what happened? On the first day of the war, oil prices surged, with a barrel reaching $78—the highest level since 2022. Had the conflict continued, some projections, including one from J.P. Morgan, estimated prices could have climbed to $130 per barrel. Throughout the war, prices remained volatile, fluctuating between $76 and $72 amid rapid developments and fears of escalation or potential strikes on key oil infrastructure. But once a ceasefire was reached, the news had a calming psychological effect on markets. Concerns eased over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on oil facilities, reducing pressure on global markets. As a result, Brent crude fell sharply to $66 per barrel—a positive development that helped ease inflationary pressures and rising consumer prices. During the conflict, investors turned to gold as a safe haven, driving demand and pushing the price to $3,437 per ounce. But after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire, prices retreated, with gold falling to around $3,323 per ounce. This shift reverberated through stock markets, triggering a rebound across Asian, Gulf, and U.S. exchanges. Confidence in cryptocurrencies also returned after many investors had turned to cash during the conflict. As stability resumed, Bitcoin rose to about $106,000 after dipping to $103,000.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold Jumps After Israel Attacks Iran
Gold futures rose, reflecting a rush into haven assets after Israel attacked Iran. Most-active contracts recently stood about 1% higher, at slightly over $3,436 a troy ounce. That put gold on course for a record end-of-day high.
CBS News
13-05-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Inflation, gold prices and what to expect next
We may receive commissions from some links to products on this page. Promotions are subject to availability and retailer terms. As inflation cools, it could impact the price of gold, but that's certainly not the only factor that matters in this equation. Getty Images The latest inflation report, released this week, brings with it some good news for your wallet: Prices aren't rising as fast as they were. The latest numbers show that inflation increased by just 2.3% year-over-year in April, a rate that was better than experts expected and the lowest it's been since early 2021. This means that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to the target rate of 2% inflation. And, when looking at the inflation data on a month-over-month basis, there's even more good news to highlight: Prices only went up by 0.2% from March to April. But what's surprising is that while inflation has been cooling down, gold prices have remained hot since the start of the year — breaking numerous records over the last five months and recently surpassing the $3,400 per ounce mark for the first time ever. That, in turn, has been great for gold investors, who have been raking in the returns as gold prices have climbed. With inflation continuing to cool, though, there could be ripple effects that have a widespread impact on the economy, including the gold market. After all, gold is typically seen as a hedge against inflation, so a decrease in inflationary pressures would generally lead to a dip in gold prices. However, that relationship isn't always straightforward, especially when other economic factors come into play. So what can we expect from gold prices now that inflation has dipped again? Here's what could happen with gold prices moving forward. Find out how to add gold to your investment portfolio now. Inflation, gold prices and what to expect next Gold and inflation have always had a complicated relationship. On the surface, they move in opposite directions: When inflation rises and erodes the value of paper currency, investors often flock to gold as a store of value. But when inflation cools, as it has recently, that can potentially sap some of gold's momentum. That's because lower inflation tends to reduce the urgency for inflation hedges like gold. When everyday goods and services aren't getting more expensive as quickly, people aren't as motivated to park their money in precious metals. And if inflation is truly under control, the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates. This could make other types of investments, like stocks and bonds, more appealing compared to gold, which doesn't yield any income. But here's the catch: While inflation has been easing recently, gold prices have stayed relatively strong. So why is that happening? It's happening because inflation isn't the only factor that matters in terms of gold pricing. Several other forces are currently shaping the gold market, like: Geopolitical tensions The world remains on edge due to ongoing global conflicts, and in uncertain times, gold becomes a safe-haven asset. Investors may not be as worried about inflation today, but they are worried about global stability, which has helped to drive up the demand for gold — and therefore the price. Explore the many benefits of adding gold to your investment mix today. Central bank demand In recent years, central banks across the globe have ramped up their gold purchases. This institutional demand has created a strong floor for gold prices and is helping to keep them elevated, even when consumer inflation eases. Interest rates If inflation continues to cool and economic data justifies it, a Fed rate cut could come later this year. That's good news for gold. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold (since you're not missing out on higher bond yields). In anticipation of this, some investors may already be positioning themselves by increasing their gold exposure. Recession fears While the labor market has remained relatively stable and inflation has cooled, consumer debt is at an all-time high and there are other economic hurdles on the horizon. So, the risk of a recession remains on the table, and if it happens, gold could get another boost, as recessions often drive a flight to safety, and gold is one of the first places investors turn. Currency volatility A strong dollar usually puts downward pressure on gold prices since gold becomes more expensive for international buyers. But should the Fed start cutting rates or global demand for the dollar weaken, gold could benefit from a corresponding dip in dollar strength. So, while it's impossible to accurately predict where gold's price will land, it appears likely that gold is poised for continued growth overall this year. Many analysts suggest that gold prices could reach between $3,500 and $3,800 or higher by year-end if current conditions persist. However, gold's path won't necessarily be straight upward. The gold market is not immune to short-term price volatility, after all, and the price of gold may dip as investors take profits or shift strategies, especially if economic conditions evolve. That said, any dips could present buying opportunities for investors with a longer-term outlook who believe in gold's fundamental strengths in this uncertain economic landscape. The bottom line While inflation has shown signs of cooling, the broader economic environment remains complex and uncertain. Gold continues to be influenced by a range of factors, including geopolitical tensions, central bank policies and investor sentiment. For investors considering gold, it's crucial to look beyond inflation figures and assess the broader economic landscape. By staying informed and aligning investments with their financial goals, investors can make more strategic decisions in navigating the current market environment.
