Latest news with #grainproduction
Mail & Guardian
02-07-2025
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
Ample grain and oilseed harvest in SA bodes well for food price inflation
Agriculture in the country is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may have quality problems Glimpses of positivity often arise from the agricultural data and are worth highlighting. These do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal diseases in cattle farming and the poultry industry. But, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. The message I continue to receive from farmers of various fruits, vegetables, grains and oilseeds, as well as other field crops, suggests a promising agricultural season. The yields are up from last year's drought. For a moment, I was worried that the excessive rains throughout April would cause quality damage to some crops. At the start of the harvest season, particularly in some grains, some farmers also had this concern. But things seem to have changed quite significantly. I've heard that the quality of crops, especially soybeans, is not as bad as we anticipated, although there are areas with problems. Nevertheless, what is encouraging is seeing a continuous upward revision of the harvest. For example, on 27 June, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its fifth production estimate for the 2024-25 season, lifting the expected harvest. While there are five more estimates to come in the following months, when we reach the fifth estimate, we generally have more confidence in the size of the crop, as well as its quality, because some areas would have delivered a sizable share of their crop to the silos. The CEC raised South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production by 3% from the May 2025 estimate to 18.43 million tonnes. This represents a 19% increase from the previous season. A closer look at the data shows that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+1%), soybeans (+14%) and dry beans (+4%). The other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month. More specifically, the maize harvest is now forecast at 14.78 million tonnes, which is 15% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Of these 14.78 million tonnes, about 7.65 million tonnes is white maize, and 7.13 million tonnes is yellow maize. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's annual maize needs of about 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize. Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.65 million tonnes, representing a 43% year-over-year increase. The annual uptick is primarily because of improved yields resulting from favourable rainfall. A significant portion of the soybean crop has already been delivered to commercial silos, and the quality is generally encouraging. Importantly, this is the second-largest harvest on record, and it is not even finished. The record harvest of 2.77 million tonnes was recorded in the 2022-23 production season. This ample harvest also means South Africa will remain a net exporter of soybeans and products. We are far from the time when we were a net importer of soybean products for animal feed, mainly oilcake. We are now in a net exporter position. Sunflower seeds are up 15% from the previous season and are estimated at 727.800 tonnes. The groundnut harvest is estimated at 63.510 tonnes (up 22% year-on-year), sorghum production is estimated at 137.970 tonnes (up 41% year-on-year), and the dry beans harvest is at 74.299 tonnes (up 47% year-on-year). The base effects and favourable agricultural conditions boosted the yields. We see the benefit of the solid harvest in generally softening commodity prices, which are now at lower levels than last year, boding well for the moderating food price inflation for the year. The benefits of these ample harvests may be more evident in the inflation data in the second half of the year. Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
Zawya
23-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Jordan sees 1.77% food price increase in early 2025
AMMAN — Food prices in Jordan have continued to rise for the fourth consecutive month since the start of the year, with World Bank data and Department of Statistics (DoS) figures both indicating higher food and consumer prices over the same period. A World Bank report cited by Al Mamlaka TV showed that Jordan's food price index rose by 1.7 per cent in April, 0.3 per cent in March, 2 per cent in February and 3.1 per cent in January, averaging 1.77 per cent during the first third of 2024. In 2024, the report recorded food price increases of 1.2 per cent in December and 2.6 per cent in November, while a slight decline of 0.7 per cent was reported in October, following a marginal rise of 0.1 per cent in September. Prices had risen by 2.8 per cent in August, 2.6 per cent in July, 2 per cent in June, and 2.1 per cent in May, before edging down 0.1 per cent in April. According to the DoS figures, consumer prices (inflation) rose by 1.97 per cent during the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with the consumer price index reaching 112.39 compared to 110.21. On a monthly basis, the index increased by 1.83 per cent in April 2025 compared to April 2024, rising to 112.53 from 110.50. A report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warned that hot, dry weather is expected to reduce grain production across Jordan, Iraq and Syria in 2025, driving up import requirements. Jordan's grain import requirements for the July 2024–June 2025 marketing year are estimated at around 3.2 million tonnes, over 10 per cent higher than average, reflecting the Kingdom's 'heavy' reliance on imports to meet local demand. Jordan continues to maintain sufficient strategic reserves to avoid supply disruptions. According to the Economic Modernisation Vision 2023–2025, Jordan's wheat and barley reserves at the end of the first quarter of this year were sufficient to cover 10.4 and 8.5 months of domestic consumption respectively, which reflects the Kingdom's ability to manage stocks despite facing challenges. Despite economic pressures from ongoing regional conflicts, which have particularly affected Jordan's tourism sector, a key pillar of the economy, the FAO report noted that food price inflation remained stable in March 2025 compared to the same month of 2024. Globally, the World Bank's June 2025 update showed that agricultural commodity and grain prices had fallen by 1 per cent since mid-May, driven by increased global supply, while export price indices remained stable. Food inflation rates remain high in low- and middle-income countries due to internal issues, such as poor infrastructure and transport. The World Bank has identified transport inefficiency as a 'key' driver of hunger in Africa. © Copyright The Jordan Times. All rights reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
ABC News
02-06-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Winter grain production to dip as dry conditions lead farmers to plant smaller area
Australia's winter crop production is expected to be 8 per cent lower this year, with drought and dry conditions affecting grain growers in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economics and Sciences' (ABARES) June crop report estimates national winter grain production at 55.6 million tonnes. If realised, grain production would still be 13 per cent above the annual average production for the last 10 years. Dry conditions and a lack of summer rainfall across SA, western Victoria, southern New South Wales and Western Australia's northern wheatbelt meant farmers planted a smaller area than last year. "Much of the 2025–26 winter crop has been dry sown and will require adequate and timely rainfall during June to allow for crop germination and establishment. Dry autumn conditions are expected to have discouraged some growers from committing to their full planting intentions," the report said. The latest Bureau of Meterology (BOM) forecast said there was a 60 — 80 per cent chance that winter rainfall in drought-affected states could be above average. In South Australia's mid north, dry conditions and uncertainty over winter rains led grain grower Jono Mudge to reduce the area he sowed this year. "It's as bad as it gets, and it is as bad as it has has ever gotten," he said. Having received just 10mm of rain over the last five months, he isn't putting much faith in the BOM's winter forecast. "Our average annual rainfall is 325mm, if we can get 150mm from here until October I'll be stoked, but I can't see that happening the way it is at the moment." ABARES says if winter rainfall totals are above average, South Australian grain production would increase by 42 per cent to 7.5 million tonnes. Southern New South Wales farmer Ryan Dennis got halfway through his sowing program before the risk of not getting enough rain convinced him to pause. "It was desperate. You're putting money into the ground and hoping [for rain]," he said. Mr Dennis's farm in Downside, near Wagga Wagga, receives an average of 525mm of rain annually. With 150mm of rain so far, he said while crops have been slower to emerge this year, wheat and barley crops still have time. "Normal main season canola would hopefully be up around your ankles by now, but we're just finding [the very first leaves]," he said. "Everything's definitely delayed, but the wheat and the barley is not too far out of its [emergence] window." Many Western Australian grain growers completed sowing their crops into dry soils, but a slow moving low pressure system is expected to bring rain to most of the state this week. "Through all the farming districts, we're looking at most locations getting between 10-30mm [on Tuesday] as this system moves across WA," BOM senior meteorologist Joey Rawson said. "We've got three days of quite heavy rainfall across the farming regions." York farmer, and chair of GrainGrowers Rhys Turton said it's been a nervous wait for a season break. "I think most people plugged through their program without too many changes from what I'm hearing. "So I think as every day went by and there was more dust blowing behind the machines, everyone was looking to the sky and looking to phones for the latest weather forecast." Unlike the eastern states, ABARES said WA growers planted a larger area of winter grain crops this year. Above average rain in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has helped farmers sow their winter crops with confidence. "Average to above average soil moisture levels at planting, combined with a positive rainfall outlook for winter, are expected to support above average yield prospects," ABARES said. "The weather was very kind to us during summer, which has allowed us to do this winter crop planting," grain grower Stuart McIntyre said. And with basically everything full at the moment, that'll allow us for a nice large summer crop."
